Category Archives: Earth Stuff

News of Earth Changes, climate shifts, weather anomalies, volcanoes, etc

On Volcanoes in Iceland

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Peddling Fear of an Icelandic Volcanic Eruption

 

The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull seen on May 8 of that year. Since then, the news media wants us to live in fear of the next Iceland eruption. Image: NASA.

 

As we approach the second anniversary of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption that created air travel havoc across Europe, I suppose it comes as no surprise that the news media has decided to mark the anniversary with fear. I’ve seen a flurry of articles come out over the past few days all pushing the idea that a new eruption in Iceland, bigger and badder that Eyjafjallajökull, is around the corner, waiting to mug you and steal your wallet.

 

Let’s take a quick tour of some of the headlines, shall we?

Really pitching the soft sell, aren’t they? And guess what? Almost every one of these articles focuses on the Big Bad Wolf of Iceland, Katla. Sure, other volcanoes also show signs of activity (see Askja or even2011 eruption of Grimsvötn), but Katla is the media darling. Katla has definitely had large eruptions in the past, but it isn’t even the standard for large eruptions in Iceland (I think the Laki eruption might have something to say about that). However, Katla is (a) near Eyjafjallajökull; (b) hasn’t erupted in a long time; and (c) easier to pronounce.

Now listen, Iceland is a very geologically active place. It sits on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, were new oceanic crust is born, pushing North America and Europe further apart. It also sits on top of a mantle plume, where hot, buoyant mantle material rises and melts as a decompresses. Both of these factors mean that Iceland has a lot of volcanic activity. It also means many of the volcanoes will appear “restless” as magma moves in conduits under the volcano, sometimes at depths of 30 or more kilometers below the surface – and although magma is moving, it doesn’t mean an eruption is going to happen next week. Volcanoes are dynamic features that are always responding to new intrusions of magma, but remember this key fact: volcanoes spend much more time not erupting than erupting.

This key idea is what makes volcano monitoring such a challenge – we can see the signs of activity, like earthquakes, degassing, warming of the Earth’s surface, steam explosions, deformation, but deciding that volcano X will erupt on a specific date far in the future is just not possible. Sure, we can say the probability is higher that a volcano will erupt if it shows some of these signs, but really, for any active volcano, for each day that passes, we are closer to its next eruption (whenever that might be). Katla will erupt again, but do we need to rehash the fear of total Airtravelopocalypse each time it hiccups? I sure hope not.

The two things we really don’t know about the next eruption of Katla: (1) when it is going to happen and (2) how big will it be. Without this knowledge, all this wailing and gnashing of teeth is for one reason only – to get people to read your article. There is no scientific basis for you to be any more afraid of Katla now than at any time – and even if the signs of activity increase, the fear shouldn’t come with it. As an example, the 2011 eruption of Grimsvötn was, in many times, larger than the Eyjafjallajökull eruption – taller plume, higher rate of eruption (initially) – but it did not cause anywhere close to the chaos that Eyjafjallajökull caused in European/North American air traffic.

What I’m trying to get across is this: Every eruption in Iceland is not doom. Every rumble of a volcano is not a sign of a “huge new eruption”. We live on a geologically active planet and significant geologic events are going to happen (just look at the earthquakes in Indonesia and Mexico yesterday). However, living in fear of that big eruption or that big earthquake isn’t going to help us be prepared for the next one.

Image: Aqua image of Eyjafjallajokull erupting on May 8, 2010. Image by NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team   

from:   http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/04/peddling-fear-of-an-icelandic-volcanic-eruption/#more-105989

Papua New Guinea Earthquake

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 Very strong to massive (deep) earthquake in Papua New Guinea

Last update: April 17, 2012 at 9:38 am by By 

Very strong to massive (deep) earthquake in Papua New Guinea
The earthquake struck at a depth of 202 km is therefore probably harmless.
130 km (81 miles) N (10°) from Lae, New Guinea, PNG
156 km (97 miles) ESE (104°) from Madang, New Guinea, PNG
This earthquake will be felt by millions of people in a very wide area because of the depth of the hypocenter
Update 07:33 UTC : Geofon reports a Magnitude of 6.6 at a depth of 199 km. EMSC a Magnitude of 7.1 at a depth of 190 km.
All data captured so far are confirming the probably harmless character of this earthquake
Update 07:38 UTC : The epicenter of this earthquake is on the coast of  Long Island, an island to the north of Eastern PNG. The epicenter is however of less importance in deep earthquakes as the seismic waves are radiating to the surface from deep within the hot solid earth.
Update 07:41 UTC : There absolutely NO risk for a tsunami for the same reason as described above.
Update 07:42 UTC : Due the energy in this quake USGS expects that 108,000 people will have experienced a moderate MMI V shaking, 2.6 million people a light shaking.

from:   http://earthquake-report.com/2012/04/16/major-earthquakes-list-april-17-2012/

Kenya, Nairobi Earthquake

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Moderate earthquake close to Nairobi, Kenya

Last update: April 17, 2012 at 8:55 am by By 

Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude :
UTC Time : Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 02:01:27 UTC
Local time at epicenter : Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 05:01:27 AM at epicenter
Depth (Hypocenter) : 10 km
Geo-location(s) :
33 km (20 miles) NNW of NAIROBI, Kenya
81 km (50 miles) NW of Machakos, Kenya
109 km (67 miles) SE of Nakuru, Kenya


Seismic hazard map for the greater area of this earthquake – The darker the color, the more chance that an earthquake would strike

– The East African Rift is an active continental rift zone in eastern Africa that appears to be a developing divergent tectonic plate boundary (spreading plates) . In the past it was considered to be part of a larger Great Rift Valley that extended north to Turkey. The rift is a narrow zone in which the African Plate is in the process of splitting into two new tectonic plates called the Somali Plate and the Nubian Plate, which are subplates or protoplates. See picture of the plates at the bottom of this article.

– The epicenter is located below Ngenya and close to the  Thika Dam.  The Thika dam is approx. 15 km from the shallow epicenter, but it should be no problem at all to withstand a moderate quake like the one from today.

– The intensity of the shaking is not strong enough to inflict serious damage or injuries, but can cause some cracks in walls as the houses in Kenya are mostly made of brick or adobe and are this very vulnerable for damage when serious shaking is taking place.

– The intensity reported from Nairobi is III MMI = a weak shaking

– The earthquake can be called unusual so close to for Nairobi, but not unusual for Kenya as Kenya is part of the tectonics very active rift valley with spreading plates. These spreading plates are “hanging” on regular intervals and are even the reason for the many volcanoes the country has within its borders.

for more information and updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/04/17/moderate-earthquake-close-to-nairobi-kenya/

Valparaiso, Chile Area Earthquake

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Very strong earthquake near Valparaiso, Chile – Very interesting shaking video

Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 6.5
UTC Time : Tuesday, April 17, 2012 at 03:50:14 UTC
Local time at epicenter : Monday, April 16, 2012 at 11:50:14 PM at epicenter
Depth (Hypocenter) : 25.9 km
Geo-location(s) :
42 km (26 miles) NNE of Valparaiso, Valparaiso, Chile
81 km (50 miles) W of Los Andes, Valparaiso, Chile

Intensity map courtesy USGS

– Historically, there have been at least 50 damaging earthquakes within a 100km radius of the epicenter

– Strongest intensities have been experienced in Titil and Rancagua following ONEMI Chile (MMI VII = very strong shaking)

– ONEMI Chile is calling the earthquake one of Mayor Intensidad (great intensity).

– 532,000 people will have experienced a strong shaking and nearly a million people a moderate shaking. 8 million people a light shaking

– The epicenter may be positioned in the sea or just below land

– The earthquake struck on the coastal strip 42 km to the north of Valparaiso and 112 km from the Capital Santiago

– The Video below is a very important video which shows the studio of CNN Chile with a footer already in the screen of the earthquake as well as the text that SHOA (agency for tsunami prediction) reports that NO tsunami conditions are present. The text messages must have appeared after the automatic systems from the Chile authorities have received the P-Wave signal at instruments close to the epicenter. Santiago de Chile was only 112 km from the epicenter and while the journalist is commenting the just occurred quake, the studio is starting to shake.  Following ONEMI Chile, the shaking we are seeing on this video is labeled approx. MMI VI (strong shaking). 
Once more CHILE proves that they are standing at the top of earthquake preparedness. If reports are distributed this fast to the media, all evacuation and preparedness measures like tsunami evacuation is very efficient too. Japan has a similar system. Earthquake-Report.com congratulates the Chile authorities with the way they have learned from the February 27, 2010 earthquake and historic earthquakes.

– Earthquake-Report.com reader message from Valparaiso : No previous sound, It started reaaally strong, right from the beginning, some things fell, the sad thing is telephones lines went down… again.

– Update 08:44 UTC : Preventive evacuation has been lifted 3 hours 48 minutes after the mainshock!

– In the video below captured in the CNN studios from Santiago de Chile, we have timed that the strongest shaking went on for about 8 seconds and that the shaking ended after approx. 35 seconds.

– Power is now been restored to 99% of the grid and only the town of Maitencillo in the Vth district has still some areas without power

– Update 07:57 UTC : 8 aftershocks since the mainshock

– A seismologist from the Universidad de Chile Santiago has declared that today’s earthquake is NOT related with the February 27, 2010 mega-quake.

for more information, and updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/04/17/very-strong-earthquake-near-valparaiso-chile/

Texas Panhandle Pounded by 4 Feet of Hail

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Texas Hailstorm Leaves Panhandle Chest-High In Ice And Mud (PHOTO)

Posted: 04/12/2012 8:05 pm Updated: 04/12/2012 8:08 pm

For over two hours Wednesday afternoon, cities in the Texas panhandle were hammered by a hailstorm that left quarter-sized balls of ice stacked chest-high in some areas, Time NewsFeed reports.

The deluge began around 3:30 a.m. Over the next few hours, fast-moving hailstones pummeled the area north of Amarillo, Tex., which had lately been sitting in mud and dust due to a lack of precipitation, according to the news organization. The hail mixed with the mud and dust to create four-foot high mounds that shut down a major highway for the next 18 hours.

The National Service Office in Amarillo posted a striking picture on Facebook of a local fireman standing between the mounds and the floodwaters, accumulating due to melting ice and heavy rain.

See the photo and raw footage of the flash floods below.

Krissy Scotten, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Office in Amarillo,told msnbc.com that the rain and floodwater cause the drifts, and chest-high mounds like the ones shown in the photo are uncommon.

“I can assure you we do not have big rocks like that in West Texas,” Scotten told msnbc.com. “Anytime you have hail accumulate 2 to 4 feet high and get over three inches of rain, no matter how it occurs, it’s pretty incredible.”

Brian Thomas, the sheriff for Potter County, concurred with Scotten, saying the hail mounds were erratic.

“This was just one of those weird storms that just sat here and came down extremely heavy in this one area,” Thomas told KAMR-TV.

Luckily no injuries have been reported from the storm, the station reported.

Check out the photo below, courtesy of KAMR and scroll down for video:

from:    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/12/hailstorm-photo-texas-panhandle-amarillo_n_1422218.html

Palermo, SIcily — Earthquake

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Moderate earthquake close to Palermo, Sicily

Last update: April 13, 2012 at 9:41 am by By 

M 4.7      2012/04/13 06:21      Depth 26.8 km      SICILY, ITALY
08:21:36 AM at epicenter –  –
Moderate earthquake very close to Palermo, Sicily. The depth of the hypocenter will weaken the shaking a little bit and no damage has to be expected in or near Palermo.
12 km (8 miles) NNW (337°) from Palermo, Sicily, Italy

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/04/12/major-earthquakes-list-april-13-2012/

Gulf of California Earthquakes 4/12: Update

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2 very strong dangerous earthquakes in the Gulf of California – Minor damage reported in Guaymas

Last update: April 13, 2012 at 9:58 am by By 

Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 6.8-6.9
UTC Time : Thursday, April 12, 2012 at 07:15:48 UTC
Local time at epicenter : Thursday, April 12, 2012 at 12:15:48 AM at epicenter
Depth (Hypocenter) : 10.3 km
Geo-location(s) :
134 km (83 miles) NE (48°) from Guerrero Negro, Baja California Sur, Mexico
162 km (101 miles) W (268°) from La Doce, Sonora, Mexico

 

Update 13/04 – 09:54 UTC
The staff of Civil Protection, Urban Infrastructure and SIUE (Ministry of Urban Infrastructure and Ecology) is conducting currently an inspection in the Guaymas area.
The local head of Civil Protection, Leon Gerardo Soto reported that home owners in the greater Guaymas area have calles the Civil Protection to report damage on their houses.
Regarding the City Hall (Palacio Municipal), he said that new cracks were found at the main entrance.

Palacia Municipal de Guaymas – Image courtesy english.realmexico.info

Update 21:12 UTC
* Cracks on walls in Guaymas,Sonora : People were calling newspapers and local media to reportdamages in their houses. El Palacio Municipal (Municipal Palace ,local government building) reported cracks on the principal entrance.
* Mexican Proteccion Civil has evacuated people from the beach as a precautionary measure

–  Update 17:17 UTC
* At least 60 Americans have asked their touring companies to be transferred away from their vacation location at Bahía de Kino.
* Proteccion Civil Mexico has reported that they have had NO reports of damage or injuries in Guerrero Negro.  One of the main reasons that this earthquake will have been harmless may have been the short duration of the shaking (10 seconds in Hermosilla)
– An ER reader living in Tucson, Arizona (USA) mentioned having felt the earthquake !

Strike-slip type of earthquakes

– Since the mainshock, the earthquake area has been hit by 6 aftershocks varying in strength in between M3.7 and M4.8.

– The earthquake was felt strongly. There have been 2 confirmed reports in San Luis of a VI intensity (72km from the epicenter). This means that there is the potential for VII-VIII in the epicentral area (damaging). (we are choosing to ignore a response of VII, which came 354km from the epicenter).

– Historic damaging earthquakes of similar magnitude have occurred once in the epicentral region with a M7.0 earthquake in 1954 causing no deaths and minor damage. This is a good sign for the region affected.

– Looking at the epicentral area – the location is very sparsely populated with only a few houses along the coastline apart from Santa Isabel.

– Mexican hypocenter (UNAM) is at M6.8 and 10km depth, under land.

– USGS hypocenter is at M6.9 and off the coast – there is little chance of a tsunami due to the fault mechanism.

– The area around Santa Isabel is most at risk from the USGS-based hypocenter with a possible shaking of VII. Some damage should be expected. Currently Agua de Soda and other towns closeby near the national park of Baja California are most at risk from the Mexican hypocenter which is below land.

– The Mexican Civil Defense who is responsible for Search and Rescue and first aid has reported that so far NO damage or injuries has  been recorded.

– Based on the Geofon data both earthquakes were strike-slip earthquakes (mainly lateral movement).

– The average shaking recorded in Hermosilla is MMI IV (based on 84 reports). The shaking in Guerrero Negro is MMI V (moderate).  Hermosillo is 10. km from the epicenter and Guerrero Negro 133 km. As explained before our attention goes to the immediate area of the epicenter (very shallow earthquake) – 30 to 40 km radius is at risk for eventual damage. Whether there will be damage or not will depend on how long both shakings have lasted and on the final earthquake data numbers.

– As the earthquake struck in a coastal area, NOAA has written in his latest report (for USA people mainly) : A strong earthquake has occurred, but a tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, or Alaska coast. NO tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas. Based on the earthquake magnitude, location and historic tsunami records, a damaging tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska coasts.

– So far we have no news of the epicentral area.

– The earthquake happened just after midnight. Mexican news channels haven’t picked up the news yet.  Of course it is in the middle of the night in Mexico and people seem to have been used to the many earthquakes of the last 24 hours.

– The set of earthquakes in the Gulf of California have started with a M4.7 earthquake, followed 18 minutes later by a M6.2 earthquake and another 9 minutes later with a M6.9 earthquake (the most powerful so far)

– USGS has calculated that 3000 people will have experienced a very strong shaking and that 105,000 have experienced a strong shaking. Both these areas are at risk for eventual damage, especially because 9 minutes earlier another very strong earthquake struck the same area.

– The Mexican Servico Sismologico Nacional reports a magnitude of 6.8 with an epicenter below land. These makes this earthquake the most dangerous in 24 hours !

– Although it is a ridge earthquake, the epicenter of the M6.9 quake looks to be very close to the coast which makes this earthquake (the second very strong in a matter of 9 minutes) EXTREMELY DANGEROUS for shaking damage and fatalities. Let us hope that we are too pessimistic here. The kind of shaking will depend on the focal mechanism

 

– Following calculations by the USGS (providing that the earthquake data are correct) a MMI VII will have been experienced on the Baja California peninsula ! This means dangerous for the coastal areas experiencing this kind of shaking.

– The whole North American continent is currently moving in such a way that the earthquakes of the last 12 hours are somehow related (Mexico Sur, Mexico Gulf of California, Utah, Oregon) . Scientists will have a lot of work in examining eventual relationships however there is no certainty at all that a relation would exist (at least for a couple of these earthquakes)

– We are talking in this case about a Ridge earthquake, this means 2 separating plates who are hanging and suddenly get away from each other. Ridge earthquakes are typical for Middle Ocean locations

– The earthquake struck just after midnight

– We are currently collecting data

for more information and updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/04/12/very-strong-earthquake-in-the-gulf-of-california/

Sumatra Earthquakes 4/11 Updates

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2 Massive earthquakes out of the Sumatra coast, Indonesia – 5 people killed and 7 injured (all of them indirect)

Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 8.6 (USGS)
UTC Time : Wednesday, April 11, 2012 at 08:38:30 UTC
Local time at epicenter : Wednesday, April 11, 2012 at 02:38:30 PM at epicenter
Depth (Hypocenter) : 22.9 km
Geo-location(s) :
495 km (308 miles) SW (219°) from Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia

Update 12/04 – 15:45 UTC
* 50 inmates from the Sigli state prison have not returned after the gates have been opened by the prison management. On the outside cries that the water was rising, state prison director decided to open the gate. It must have been done in chaos as only 13 of the 63 inmates have returned to the prison. The other 50 are on the run with the police coming after them.

– Update 12/04 – 09:56 UTC
* The Minister of Communications and Information Technology, Tifatul Sembiring, has obtained from telecommunication operators that disturbed communications on Sumatra will all be operational again in approx. 3 days
* Schools are not yet recovered of all the havoc and not yet fully operational today
* Minister of Communications and Information Technology, Tifatul Sembiring, reads our pages regularly we think, because he also said today that too many “speaking on the phone” are creating saturation of telecommunications traffic. Click here to read our in-depth reporting of this subject.

– Update 12/04 – 08:44 UTC
* Indonesian authorities have reported that 5 people have been killed by the earthquake on the island of Sumatra. 7 people have been reported injured (1 child is critically injured when she jumped in panic out of a tree). 3 people died of a heart attack. Massive earthquakes have a very emotional impact on Indonesians since in 2004 so many people were killed by a tsunami in the same area as yesterday’s earthquakes. The killed and injured reported so far are indirect fatalities which are related to the earthquake.
* The main airport of Simeulue island (island closest to the epicenter) was closed.  Simeulue had no power and communications were disturbed (unbelievable in earthquake-report.com terms ! – One should think that after the 2004 tsunami and devastating earthquake, authorities should have a viable system in place to at least reach strategic locations like the main Simeulue airport).
– Based on the injured and killed Sumatrans, this earthquake will be labeled CATDAT ORANGE

– On our Major daily earthquakes list from April 11, you can see an impressive list of aftershocks.  The list is especially long because we are publishing the data of EMSC, GFZ and USGS.

Update 21:55 UTC
The aftershocks are continuously hitting th sea floor. The image below shows the epicenters of the many aftershocks. The red square is the latest one and the square with a white arrow is the mainshock of 8.6. The area where the aftershocks have occurred is approx. 1000 square kilometer? Since the mainshock we have counted 31 M+5 aftershocks. We expect the aftershocks to gradually decrease in strength but at the same time we also expect some very strong ones to happen now and then. Let’s hope that the whole area (especially the Burma Plate and the Sumatra fault) will remain calm.

People in Banda Aceh running away from their location to higher grounds

Update 20:37
Indonesia is checking for damage and casualties but remarkably, no such reports had been received for several hours after the quakes, including in Aceh province, the closest province and the area decimated by the disaster eight years ago. Many people are frightened for further tremors. People want to stay alert because of the fear that more quakes are coming.

Update 18:51 UTC
The small wave caused $220,000 (2 billion rupiah) damage (estimated) to a bridge and a house. Damage to the bridge was in Bubon Arongan

Update 16:23 UTC
Also Indonesia has now lifted the tsunami alert.  We had to wait several minutes to reach the BMKG website, as we were ourselves victims of saturated servers,  we feel pity with the Indonesian seismologists.
Billions of dollars are paid to cover earthquake and tsunami insurances but some seed money to strengthen specialist sites like the seismological agencies and our site are seemingly too much for the insurance companies.  Saturated servers are a common problem for event driven websites like earthquake-report.com

Update 15:46 UTC
So why was this earthquake the largest non-damaging earthquake ever measured?
a) It occurred 400km+ offshore, thus the earthquake shaking only achieved a maximum intensity of around 5.5-6 in the closest points to land, causing no discernable damage.
b) the earthquake, unlike other major M8+ earthquakes, was a strike-slip earthquake, where plates slide past one another, and not upwards or downwards. Therefore, there was not much offset on either side of the fault and thus the water volume was not significantly displaced and therefore caused NO MAJOR TSUNAMI (highest was at Meulaboh with 1.05m)
c)13 other earthquakes over Mw8 since 1900 have caused no damage, however, the Mw8.6 was the highest by Mw0.4 (around 3 times the ground motion and 7 times more energy than ever before to cause no damage!!!!)
The Mw8.2 earthquake which occurred a couple of hours later was the 3rd largest earthquake recorded to cause no damage.

In one of the many experience reports, a person from Banda Aceh wrote earthquake-report.com : hard too remain standing, iMac in the office hopping madly all over the desk, people panicking and leaving the city because of tsunami warnings

– So far we there were 23 M5+ aftershocks after the mainshock. 2 of the aftershocks were even bigger than M6

Location of the aftershocks until 15:41 UTC – red blocks are the lastest ones, block with the white arrow in it is the location of the epicenter’s mainshock

Update 15:20 UTC
We got a message on our computer for Maldives touroperator IMPEX Holydays. The touroperator is telling his client travel agencies soon after the earthquake what the situation was at the Maldives. This is truly an ‘example of how today’s communication has to work. Congratulations to Impex Holidays.
“Dear All Partners,
Greetings from Maldives.
We wish to inform all our partners the situation in Maldives is calm although we slightly felt the 8.6 magnitude earth quake which hit Aceh, Indonesia this afternoon.
As of now, 1725 hrs local Maldives time the authorities have extended the tsunami alert time till 1930 hrs due to the second after shock quake.
All inhabited islands as well as the resort islands are on full alert, although sources have informed that the chances of a tsunami is unlikely.
e wish all tourists in Maldives well and pray that we will be safe.”

Update 13:57 UTC 
– A tsunami watch has been cancelled now for the entire Indian Ocean area

Earthquakes since 1900 over M8 that were non-damaging
Today’s 2 earthquakes of Mw8.6 and Mw8.2 are among the Top 13 strongest magnitude non-major damaging event earthquakes of the last 113 years in CATDAT
Mw8.1 – January 13, 2007 – Kuril Islands
Mw8.1 – December 23, 2004 – North of Macquarie Island
Mw8.1 – March 25, 1998 – Balleny Islands Region
Mw8.1 – May 23, 1989 – North of Macquarie Island
(Mw8.1 – January 10, 1971 – Very Minor damage to a church etc. – Papua, Indonesia)
Mw8.5 – October 13, 1963 – Kuril Islands (v. minor damage)
Mw8.2 – November 10, 1938 – Alaska
Mw8.0 – September 20, 1920 – Loyalty Islands Region
Mw8.0 – May 1, 1917 – Kermadec Islands, NZ
Mw8.0 – May 1, 1915 – Kuril Islands
Mw8.0 – January 4, 1903 – Tonga
Mw8.0 – 1902 – Sea of Okhotsk

– Meulaboh (Northern Sumatra)  has recorded waves up to 1.06m
– The second fault solution has been confirmed as a strike-slip  – meaning little chance of tsunami. Probably only minor given the slight dip.
This is the largest non-damaging earthquake for a long time of this magnitude.

– Below this page you will find a very big number of earthquake experience reports from our readers. We thank them all to share their experience with earthquake-report.com

– The epicenter of the earthquake is located about 100 km to the west of the subduction fault line in the Oceanic part of the Indian plate and not in the direct subduction zone of the plates. The subduction zone is far more dangerous than stress in the oceanic plate itself.  The actual greater area is the intersection in between the Indian Plate, the Australian plate and the Burma plate.

Image courtesy of Kerry Sieh, Tectonics Observatory, California Institute of Technology

– A NOAA employee just told CNN that the max. water level change which has been measured so far was 1 meter, which confirms our earlier expectation that due to the type of the 1th earthquake (strike/slip) the impact would be limited.

– We will still have to wait for the earthquake data of the second massive earthquake.  The mechanism (type of earthquake) is not necessarily the same for both earthquakes

for more information and updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/04/11/massive-extremely-dangerous-earthquake-500-km-from-the-sumatra-coast-indonesia/

Quiet Hurricane Season Expected

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fr/Dr. Jeff Masters:

CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas
Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:47 PM GMT on April 05, 2012 +29
Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 – 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as “analogue” years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA’s NESDISbranch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.

Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:

1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August – September – October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.

2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year’s SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we’ve seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.

How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don’t have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called “predictability barrier.” April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.

CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.

to read more, go to:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2067

Link: Midwest Earthquakes & Oil & Gas Production?

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Oil and gas production linked to spike in Midwest earthquakes: study

A six-fold increase in earthquakes since the late 20th century is “almost certainly man-made,” the report concludes

BY 

Saturday, April 7, 2012,
Peak oil theory warns that once the fossile fuel is depleted, we'll be headed back to the stone age.

FERRARI/AP

A new study links a rise in Midwest earthquakes to oil and gas production.

NEW YORK — Oil and gas production may explain a sharp increase in small earthquakes in the nation’s midsection, a new study from the U.S. Geological Survey suggests.

The rate has jumped six-fold from the late 20th century through last year, the team reports, and the changes are “almost certainly man-made.”

Outside experts were split in their opinions about the report, which is not yet published but is due to be presented at a meeting later this month.
The study said a relatively mild increase starting in 2001 comes from increased quake activity in a methane production area along the state line between Colorado and New Mexico. The increase began about the time that methane production began there, so there’s a “clear possibility” of a link, says lead author William Ellsworth of the USGS.
The increase over the nation’s midsection has gotten steeper since 2009, due to more quakes in a variety of oil and gas production areas, including some in Arkansas and Oklahoma, the researchers say.
It’s not clear how the earthquake rates might be related to oil and gas production, the study authors said. They note that others have linked earthquakes to injecting huge amounts of leftover wastewater deep into the earth.
There has been concern about potential earthquakes from a smaller-scale injection of fluids during a process known as hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which is used to recover gas. But Ellsworth said Friday he is confident that fracking is not responsible for the earthquake trends his study found, based on prior studies.
The study covers a swath of the United States that lies roughly west of Ohio and east of Utah. It counted earthquakes of magnitude 3 and above.
Magnitude 3 quakes are mild, and may be felt by only a few people in the upper floors of buildings, or may cause parked cars to rock slightly. The biggest counted in the study was a magnitude-5.6 quake that hit Oklahoma last Nov. 5, damaging dozens of homes. Experts said it was too strong to be linked to oil and gas production.
The researchers reported that from 1970 to 2000, the region they studied averaged about 21 quakes a year. That rose to about 29 a year for 2001 through 2008, they wrote, and the three following years produced totals of 50, 87 and 134, respectively.
The study results make sense and are likely due to man-made stress in the ground, said Rowena Lohman, a Cornell University geophysicist.
“The key thing to remember is magnitude 3s are really small,” Lohman said. “We’ve seen this sort of behavior in the western United States for a long time.”
Usually, it’s with geothermal energy, dams or prospecting. With magnitude 4 quakes, a person standing on top of them would at most feel like a sharp jolt, but mostly don’t last long enough to be a problem for buildings, she said.
The idea is to understand how the man-made activity triggers quakes, she said. One possibility is that the injected fluids change the friction and stickiness of minerals on fault lines. Another concept is that they change the below-surface pressure because the fluid is trapped and builds, and then “sets off something that’s about ready to go anyway,” Lohman said.
But another expert was not convinced of a link to oil and gas operations.
Austin Holland, the Oklahoma state seismologist, said the new work presents an “interesting hypothesis” but that the increase in earthquake rates could simply be the result of natural processes.
Holland said clusters of quakes can occur naturally, and that scientists do not yet fully understand the natural cycles of seismic activity in the central United States. Comprehensive earthquake records for the region go back only a few decades, he said, while natural cycles stretch for tens of thousands of years. So too little is known to rule out natural processes for causing the increase, he said

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/oil-gas-production-linked-spike-midwest-earthquakes-study-article-1.1057905#ixzz1rP2VMaOU