March Channeling – The Group via Steve Rother

The Beacons of Light — Re-minders from Home

Beacons of Light March 2020

~ Stitching Hearts Together ~

NEW Audible Light in Steve’s voice Download the mp3 here 

A special note on Coronavirus:

Greetings from Home, dear ones. We wished to add to the message this day to talk about what is in front of most humans at this time. Changes in lifestyle are a reaction to life forms originating in the cosmos that has crossed from the lower vibrational animals to humans. Much fear is on Earth. The challenges are many, yet simple to understand. Consider this to be a very “sticky” creature both inside and outside of the body. As people distance themselves, it becomes a balancing act between safety and isolation. You are now learning much about this virus as humans call it. It will ultimately leave behind an easier path for evolution in all humans. It has the effect of loosening the ethereal body. Children are affected less as most already have this new level in place. Only a small percentage of humans need to catch this to reach a critical mass and some who do will not feel sick, yet, all can be carriers. There are other viruses already on Earth, answers are already planted, and that knowledge is making its way into the collective consciousness.

Please keep in mind that we have been talking about the growing separation on Earth. The message that follows is all about that. We even made the comment several times that if Earth was attacked from outer space that it could have the effect of bringing together hearts as all humans realize that they are more alike than they are different. From our perspective, that has happened. Lightworkers globally now are being called into action in new ways. Keep in mind you will make it through and on the other side humans will take this opportunity to build anew.  Many who have been holding the energy quietly and now will be called into action. There will be more fear on Earth. Consider this as an opportunity for light and all Lightworkers. Fear and Love cannot occupy the same space. Find the Love and pass it on. Keep the hearts connected in as many ways as you can, dear ones, and a new world will emerge. If you are successful, the human heart will rise in unity.

Espavo

The group

______________________________________

Greetings, dear ones.

We join you this day with such a joy. You see, when you left Home, you were all connected. There’s a very deep connection between you because you’re all a part of one other. Dear ones, it’s like calling two fingers on the same hand separate from one another. That separation defines you as an individual, for it is how you define things as a human. However, remembering the connection is how you define things as a spirit. Recently there’s been even great separation, and that deep connection seems to have gone by the wayside. In truth, some of the separation has been intentional. Why? Because if humans are to be controlled, there’s only one way to do that and it’s to separate and divide you from one another. That effort has been very successful.

Unity of the Heart — That separation and division can change, but it is up to all of you. No matter which side you think you’re on, the most important part of this is to lose the sides and begin reconnecting hearts. Remember, dear ones, everything is connected at Home. You will laugh about this when you return Home, for there’s a strong connection with everything. The months and years ahead will present new challenges, new difficulties. All you need to do is to look back at your own history and see that is true. As these new processes grow and the energies start coming together, you will quickly find the power of unity, especially unity of the heart. In truth, many of you even jumped into the timeline at this exact moment because individually you are carrying something important for the collective. The challenge is that if you are separated, you won’t remember.

Stitching Hearts Together — What we’re asking all of you to do during these times ahead is to lose the sides. Do you define yourself by your past choices? If so, it makes change that much more difficult. Start looking at how you can connect with one another, even for a moment. Find one thing that you have in common with every person who crosses your path. All you need to do is find that one little thing about a person that you can resonate with, then you instantly restore the connections that you had at Home. You can actually feel a strength coming from others when you can harmonize with them. It’s available to all of you at this moment, as the connections are very strong.

Dear ones, know that this is also an opportunity for light to stitch together the hearts that have already been separated for way too long. Those new energies are here right now, and we can’t wait to see what you do with them.

There are a wide range of waves emanating from differing parts of the universe that constantly bathe planet Earth.  Last November we told you about one of these waves coming in and opening up opportunities to change everything by shifting the base energy on which you all live. That has taken place, but there are residual waves continuing to come in even now one right after the other. One of the most beautiful things that we have seen during this wave of energy is the rise of the feminine energy. It has moved into the base and anchored in an entirely new way, in a whole different place.

You have made that possible, dear ones, and you have been wildly successful at that. Although you don’t see the results of that quite yet, the new feminine base has been firmly anchored. It takes time for it to propagate and for that voice to be heard as a collective. Make no mistake, it is in motion. You are all responsible for that happening, because without the space for it to land the energy would have come then quickly gone back out. In effect, everything would have returned to normal. But that did not happen, even though you still have a lot of confusion everything is now in place.

You’ve anchored something very powerful here, and in the months ahead you will move into it. If you can begin to bring this energy in, finding a way that applies to you. Everyone will deal with it a little differently. Some people will feel it as a strength, while others may feel it as a weakness. Why? Because if you’re moving from the masculine energy, which defined power as force, into the harmony of feminine energy it can feel like you’re vulnerable. Dear ones, we tell you, it is in that vulnerability that the greatest strength lies. So, when this happens and you must plan how you’re going to react, bring all the energy in with intention. Stop, take a few breaths, and then act instead of reacting.

In the months ahead, you’ll find opportunities opening because of the work that you’ve already done. Although you may think you’re sliding backwards or your society is somehow going in the wrong direction, that’s not how it’s measured. Quite simply, it is measured one heart at a time starting with yours. You see, you are setting the energy for your own world in more ways than you know. Although it may seem like you’re disconnected from the others you’re not, for this is the practice of discernment amidst chaos.

A New Pace — You’ve been very busy. Planet Earth has not slowed down, in fact it is now speeding up. Years ago, it was discovered that the stars in the sky are moving away from Earth at ever increasing speeds, and now the Earth is also increasing its pace.

By connecting back with the basic principles of being kind to others as well as yourself, you will energetically open doors in so many new ways. It is a time of unity, dear ones. As you move from one season to the next, the energy on planet Earth is also shifting rather drastically right now. It’s connecting at the most basic levels. Although you won’t see this show up in your news on a regular basis for the time being, the energy is coming together and building. Expect a miracle, dear ones, and we’ll help you create it.

It is with the greatest of honor that we ask you to treat each other with respect, nurture one another and play well together in this beautiful new Earth.

Espavo.

The group

from:    https://www.espavo.org/beacons-light-march-2020/

Unknown Fault Responsible for Utah Quake 3/24/20

After a 5.7 earthquake, Utah seismologists investigate a ‘virtually unknown’ fault

Soon after Salt Lake City stopped shaking March 18 from its strongest earthquake on record, Amir Allam, a University of Utah seismologist, knew he had to get busy if he hoped to closely study the hundreds of aftershocks he knew would follow the 7:09 a.m. jolt.

The fault that is believed to have moved along the eastern base of the Oquirrh Mountains is virtually unknown, and here was a chance, dropping out of the blue, to image it.

But Allam had a problem.

All 210 of the U.’s portable seismographs, loaf-sized instruments known as nodal geophones, were currently deployed along California’s San Andreas fault and elsewhere, and, therefore, were unavailable for what he needed to do in his own backyard. The Salt Lake Valley hadn’t had a sizable shake since 1962 and last week’s 5.7 magnitude earthquake offered a rare opportunity to better map the network of fractures under the valley.

Allam and his U. colleagues quickly mustered up dozens of geophones from other institutions and began burying them near the epicenter of the initial quake, likely on a fault that has remained a mystery to Utah seismologists.

They hope to characterize it and determine how it is interconnected with the Wasatch fault running along the base of the foothills on Salt Lake City’s east side and its lattice of associated faults, or “strands.”

‘Jury is still out’

“We started immediately the morning of the [initial] earthquake, and we have been installing them ever since,” Allam said Tuesday as he unloaded shovels and 43 geophones from his truck. “These are the last bunch.”

He already had deployed 139 geophones, each equipped with 35 days of battery life, around the Salt Lake Valley, each measuring ground movements — vertical, north-south and east-west — from hundreds of aftershocks. These recordings will help scientists with the U., as well as the Utah and U.S. geological surveys, to characterize this intriguing fault.

The Wasatch fault system’s network of cracks in the earth stretches 230 miles from Malad, Idaho south to Fayette, Utah through Utah’s major metropolitan area, where at least 80% of the population resides. A magnitude 6 quake on the main fault could cause severe damage, depending on where it strikes. A 2016 report forecast a 57% chance of such a quake or stronger within the next 50 years. Scientists do not believe last week’s temblor will reduce the chance of a major quake on the Wasatch fault down the road.

“We want to map out the basin depth all over the valley. We actually don’t know it [the fault network] that well,” Allam said. “… We want to capture as many tiny aftershocks as we can, so we have a really dense deployment around the epicenter of the 5.7 quake. We want to get that fault structure. We want to know exactly how the Wasatch and its subsidiary faults are changing their patterns in the subsurface.”

The fault that likely moved dips to the west and is not expressed on the surface, according to Kris Pankow of the U. Seismograph Stations. It could be the same one that shook Magna in 1962 with a magnitude 5.2 quake that touched off a swarm of lesser aftershocks, but it can’t be known for sure because the instrumentation was not in place to precisely locate that quake.

“The jury is still out on the specific fault that moved and produced [the March 18] earthquake,” said Ryan Gold, a research geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey. “The specific strand, that’s what we are trying to sort out. Additional instrumentation is being installed to monitor ongoing seismicity.”

‘Aftershocks are going to diminish’

(Francisco Kjolseth | The Salt Lake Tribune) University of Utah seismologist Amir Allam deploys 43 portable seismic instruments to be buried above Salt Lake City on Tuesday, March 24, 2020, to capture data following last week’s 5.7 magnitude earthquake.

In the week since the main quake, the ground under Magna has kept shaking.

As of Tuesday at 4 p.m., 456 aftershocks had been recorded, according to Gold, coming at an average rate of one every 20 minutes. At least 29 were magnitude 3 and a handful exceeded magnitude 4. The fault released a magnitude 3.1 temblor Tuesday at 5:32 a.m., followed by many stronger than magnitude 2. Most were located very close to the original epicenter a few miles north northeast of Magna and just six miles beneath the surface.

“The number and size of aftershocks are going to diminish with time but within these sequences. It’s the fault adjusting to the changes in stress. They are kind of chattering,” said Pankow, who is also closely monitoring aftershocks with larger seismographs placed in a few strategic locations. “With time, that stress is going to dissipate.”

The larger instruments are connected to broadband, providing real time data on the aftershocks. Meanwhile, satellite imagery shows the ground moved several centimeters at the surface as a result of the main quake, according to Gold.

The aftershocks don’t occur in steady intervals but in clusters, according to a graphic representation posted by Seismograph Stations. In the first three days after the mainshock, dozens of aftershocks flared. They grew weaker and less frequent until Sunday night, when a magnitude 4 struck, followed quickly by numerous aftershocks.

“That magnitude 4 was its own stress release; it has its own set of aftershocks to go with it,” Pankow said. “We might have some more magnitude 4s before this is all done.”

Seismometers, types of seismograph that measure surface ground movement, are installed in at least three major historic structures in downtown Salt Lake City: the Utah Capitol, City Hall and West High School. These instruments record direction, intensity and duration of earthquakes. The data generated by these instruments helps engineers understand the seismic forces buildings on the Wasatch fault system could be subject to, according to Pankow.

Hillside research

An assistant research professor in the U.’s Department of Geology and Geophysics, Allam teaches jiu jitsu on the side. On Tuesday, he recruited some of his students on a moment’s notice to help schlep instruments into the hills above Salt Lake City’s Avenues neighborhood as the weather deteriorated in front of a snowstorm expected to arrive by Wednesday.

They hoisted 50-pound satchels over their shoulders, each holding six geophones, and trekked a half-mile up the Bonneville Shoreline Trail to a spot where Allam had identified a 500-meter transect along a ravine that was just starting to green up with the coming of spring. Here the team was to plant the geophones along a preselected line spanning a known strand of the Wasatch fault in the undulating terrain overlooking the city.

As a cold rain began to fall, the crews dug 8-inch holes in 13-meter intervals along a downsloping ridgeline on a roughly north-south axis. The geophones were placed in the holes, oriented directly north, and covered with dirt.

In a month, Allam and his associates will return to recover 182 geophones around the valley. The harvest is hoped to yield a bounty of data that paints a valuable picture of what lurks beneath Utah’s most populated region.

from:    https://www.sltrib.com/news/environment/2020/03/25/fault-that-shook-magna/

Sound Healing, Pipe Organs & Royal Rife

Everything Old Can Get Youth Again?

Old human cells rejuvenated with stem cell technology

Source:     Stanford Medicine
Summary:    Old human cells return to a more youthful and vigorous state after being induced to briefly express a panel of proteins involved in embryonic development, according to a new study.

Stem cells illustration (stock image). | Credit: © nobeastsofierce / stock.adobe.com
Stem cells illustration (stock image).
Credit: © nobeastsofierce / Adobe Stock

Old human cells return to a more youthful and vigorous state after being induced to briefly express a panel of proteins involved in embryonic development, according to a new study by researchers at the Stanford University School of Medicine.

The researchers also found that elderly mice regained youthful strength after their existing muscle stem cells were subjected to the rejuvenating protein treatment and transplanted back into their bodies.

The proteins, known as Yamanaka factors, are commonly used to transform an adult cell into what are known as induced pluripotent stem cells, or iPS cells. Induced pluripotent stem cells can become nearly any type of cell in the body, regardless of the cell from which they originated. They’ve become important in regenerative medicine and drug discovery.

The study found that inducing old human cells in a lab dish to briefly express these proteins rewinds many of the molecular hallmarks of aging and renders the treated cells nearly indistinguishable from their younger counterparts.

“When iPS cells are made from adult cells, they become both youthful and pluripotent,” said Vittorio Sebastiano, PhD, assistant professor of obstetrics and gynecology and the Woods Family Faculty Scholar in Pediatric Translational Medicine. “We’ve wondered for some time if it might be possible to simply rewind the aging clock without inducing pluripotency. Now we’ve found that, by tightly controlling the duration of the exposure to these protein factors, we can promote rejuvenation in multiple human cell types.”

Sebastiano is the senior author of the study, which will be published online March 24 in Nature Communications. Former graduate student Tapash Sarkar, PhD, is the lead author of the article.

“We are very excited about these findings,” said study co-author Thomas Rando, MD, PhD, professor of neurology and neurological sciences and the director of Stanford’s Glenn Center for the Biology of Aging. “My colleagues and I have been pursuing the rejuvenation of tissues since our studies in the early 2000s revealed that systemic factors can make old tissues younger. In 2012, Howard Chang and I proposed the concept of using reprogramming factors to rejuvenate cells and tissues, and it is gratifying to see evidence of success with this approach.” Chang, MD, PhD, is a professor of dermatology and of genetics at Stanford.

Exposure to proteins:        Researchers in Sebastiano’s laboratory make iPS cells from adult cells, such as those that compose skin, by repeatedly exposing them over a period of about two weeks to a panel of proteins important to early embryonic development. They do so by introducing daily, short-lived RNA messages into the adult cells. The RNA messages encode the instructions for making the Yamanaka proteins. Over time, these proteins rewind the cells’ fate — pushing them backward along the developmental timeline until they resemble the young, embryonic-like pluripotent cells from which they originated.

During this process the cells not only shed any memories of their previous identities, but they revert to a younger state. They accomplish this transformation by wiping their DNA clean of the molecular tags that not only differentiate, say, a skin cell from a heart muscle cell, but of other tags that accumulate as a cell ages.

Recently researchers have begun to wonder whether exposing the adult cells to Yamanaka proteins for days rather than weeks could trigger this youthful reversion without inducing full-on pluripotency. In fact, researchers at the Salk Institute for Biological Studies found in 2016 that briefly expressing the four Yamanaka factors in mice with a form of premature aging extended the animals’ life span by about 20%. But it wasn’t clear whether this approach would work in humans.

Sarkar and Sebastiano wondered whether old human cells would respond in a similar fashion, and whether the response would be limited to just a few cell types or generalizable for many tissues. They devised a way to use genetic material called messenger RNA to temporarily express six reprogramming factors — the four Yamanaka factors plus two additional proteins — in human skin and blood vessel cells. Messenger RNA rapidly degrades in cells, allowing the researchers to tightly control the duration of the signal.

The researchers then compared the gene-expression patterns of treated cells and control cells, both obtained from elderly adults, with those of untreated cells from younger people. They found that cells from elderly people exhibited signs of aging reversal after just four days of exposure to the reprogramming factors. Whereas untreated elderly cells expressed higher levels of genes associated with known aging pathways, treated elderly cells more closely resembled younger cells in their patterns of gene expression.

When the researchers studied the patterns of aging-associated chemical tags called methyl groups, which serve as an indicator of a cell’s chronological age, they found that the treated cells appeared to be about 1½ to 3½ years younger on average than untreated cells from elderly people, with peaks of 3½ years (in skin cells) and 7½ years (in cells that line blood vessels).

Comparing hallmarks of aging:    Next they compared several hallmarks of aging — including how cells sense nutrients, metabolize compounds to create energy and dispose of cellular trash — among cells from young people, treated cells from old people and untreated cells from old people.

“We saw a dramatic rejuvenation across all hallmarks but one in all the cell types tested,” Sebastiano said. “But our last and most important experiment was done on muscle stem cells. Although they are naturally endowed with the ability to self-renew, this capacity wanes with age. We wondered, Can we also rejuvenate stem cells and have a long-term effect?”

When the researchers transplanted old mouse muscle stem cells that had been treated back into elderly mice, the animals regained the muscle strength of younger mice, they found.

Finally, the researchers isolated cells from the cartilage of people with and without osteoarthritis. They found that the temporary exposure of the osteoarthritic cells to the reprogramming factors reduced the secretion of inflammatory molecules and improved the cells’ ability to divide and function.

The researchers are now optimizing the panel of reprogramming proteins needed to rejuvenate human cells and are exploring the possibility of treating cells or tissues without removing them from the body.

“Although much more work needs to be done, we are hopeful that we may one day have the opportunity to reboot entire tissues,” Sebastiano said. “But first we want to make sure that this is rigorously tested in the lab and found to be safe.”

Other Stanford co-authors are former postdoctoral scholar Marco Quarta, PhD; postdoctoral scholar Shravani Mukherjee, PhD; graduate student Alex Colville; research assistants Patrick Paine, Linda Doan and Christopher Tran; Constance Chu, MD, professor of orthopaedic surgery; Stanley Qi, PhD, assistant professor of bioengineering and of chemical and systems biology; and Nidhi Bhutani, PhD, associate professor of orthopaedic surgery.

Researchers from the Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, the University of California-Los Angeles and the Molecular Medicine Research Institute in Sunnyvale, California, also contributed to the study.

The research was supported by the National Institutes of Health (grants R01 AR070865, R01 AR070864, P01 AG036695, R01 AG23806, R01 AG057433 and R01 AG047820), the Glenn Foundation for Medical Research, the American Federation for Aging Research and the Department of Veterans Affairs.

Sarkar, Quarta and Sebastiano are co-founders of the startup Turn Biotechnologies, a company that is applying the technology described in the paper to treat aging-associated conditions. Rando is a member of the scientific advisory board.


Story Source::    Materials provided by Stanford Medicine. Original written by Krista Conger. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.


Journal Reference:

  1. Tapash Jay Sarkar, Marco Quarta, Shravani Mukherjee, Alex Colville, Patrick Paine, Linda Doan, Christopher M. Tran, Constance R. Chu, Steve Horvath, Lei S. Qi, Nidhi Bhutani, Thomas A. Rando, Vittorio Sebastiano. Transient non-integrative expression of nuclear reprogramming factors promotes multifaceted amelioration of aging in human cells. Nature Communications, 2020; 11 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15174-3

Cite This Page:

Stanford Medicine. “Old human cells rejuvenated with stem cell technology.” ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 24 March 2020. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200324090007.htm>.
from:    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200324090007.htm

What Does David Say?

David Icke — The Truth Behind The Coronavirus Pandemic: COVID-19 Lockdown & The Economic Crash

By London Real

David Icke is an English writer and public speaker, known since the 1990s as a professional conspiracy theorist, calling himself a “full-time investigator into who and what is really controlling the world.” He is the author of over 21 books and 10 DVDs and has lectured in over 25 countries, speaking live for up to 10 hours to huge audiences, filling stadiums like Wembley Arena.

David joins us today to talk about the coronavirus pandemic, the worldwide COVID-19 lockdown, the looming global economic crash & why the coronavirus is taking a toll on countries such as China, Italy & Spain

Watch the full episode for FREE here: https://londonreal.tv/the-truth-behin…

fromL.   https://www.activistpost.com/2020/03/david-icke-the-truth-behind-the-coronavirus-pandemic-covid-19-lockdown-the-economic-crash.html

Peak Coming?

Coronavirus going to hit its peak and start falling sooner than you think

Emergency responders load patient into ambulance outside Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington

Nations are closing borders, stocks are plummeting and a New York Times headline reads: “The Coronavirus Has Put the World’s Economy in Survival Mode.” Both political parties have realized the crisis could severely impact the November elections — House, Senate, presidency. And sacré bleu, they’ve even shuttered the Louvre!

Some of these reactions are understand­able, much of it pure hysteria. Meanwhile, the spread of the virus continues to slow.

More than 18,000 Americans have died from this season’s generic flu so far, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 2018, the CDC estimated, there were 80,000 flu deaths. That’s against 19 coronavirus deaths so far, from about 470 cases.

Worldwide, there have been about 3,400 coronavirus deaths, out of about 100,000 identified cases. Flu, by comparison, grimly reaps about 291,000 to 646,000 annually.

China is the origin of the virus and still accounts for over 80 percent of cases and deaths. But its cases peaked and began ­declining more than a month ago, according to data presented by the Canadian epidemiologist who spearheaded the World Health Organization’s coronavirus mission to China. Fewer than 200 new cases are reported daily, down from a peak of 4,000.

Subsequent countries will follow this same pattern, in what’s called Farr’s Law. First formulated in 1840 and ignored in ­every epidemic hysteria since, the law states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve. AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. So does seasonal flu each year.

Clearly, flu is vastly more contagious than the new coronavirus, as the WHO has noted. Consider that the first known coronavirus cases date back to early December, and since then, the virus has ­afflicted fewer people in total than flu does in a few days. Oh, and why are there no flu quarantines? Because it’s so contagious, it would be impossible.

As for death rates, as I first noted in these pages on Jan. 24, you can’t employ simple math — as everyone is doing — and look at deaths versus cases because those are ­reported cases. With both flu and assuredly with coronavirus, the great majority of those infected have symptoms so mild — if any — that they don’t seek medical attention and don’t get counted in the caseload.

Furthermore, those calculating rates ­ignore the importance of good health care. Given that the vast majority of cases have occurred in a country with poor health care, that’s going to dramatically exaggerate the death rate.

The rate also varies tremendously according to age, with a Chinese government analysis showing 0.2 percent deaths below age 40 but 14.8 percent above 80. A study published last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association found zero deaths worldwide among children 9 and under. Zero.

More good news. This month, the Northern Hemisphere, which includes the countries with the most cases, starts heating up. Almost all respiratory viruses hate warm and moist weather. That’s why flu dies out in America every year by May at the latest and probably why Latin America has reported only 25 coronavirus cases. The Philippines, where I live, has about a third of the US population, but it’s so damned hot and humid here, so far we have had no confirmed cases of internal transmission.

from:    https://nypost.com/2020/03/08/coronavirus-going-to-hit-its-peak-and-start-falling-sooner-than-you-think/

Pay Attention!

Corona Is Slowing Down, Humanity Will Survive, Says Biophysicist Michael Levitt

avatar by Ari Libsker / CTech

A member of a medical team wears a protective face mask, following the coronavirus outbreak, as he prepares disinfectant liquid to sanitize public places in Tehran, Iran, March 5, 2020. Photo: WANA (West Asia News Agency) / Nazanin Tabatabaee via Reuters.

CTech – Nobel laureate Michael Levitt, an American-British-Israeli biophysicist who teaches structural biology at Stanford University and spends much of his time in Tel Aviv, unexpectedly became a household name in China, offering the public reassurance during the peak of the country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak. Levitt did not discover a treatment or a cure, just did what he does best: crunched the numbers. The statistics led him to the conclusion that, contrary to the grim forecasts being branded about, the spread of the virus will come to a halt.

The calming messages Levitt sent to his friends in China were translated into Chinese and passed from person to person, making him a popular subject for interviews in the Asian nation. His forecasts turned out to be correct: the number of new cases reported each day started to fall as of February 7. A week later, the mortality rate started falling as well.

He might not be an expert in epidemiology, but Levitt understands calculations and statistics, he told Calcalist in a phone interview earlier this week.

The interview was initially scheduled to be held at the fashionable Sarona complex in Tel Aviv, where Levitt currently resides. But after he caught a cold — “not corona,” he jokingly remarked — the interview was rescheduled to be held over the phone. Even though he believes the pandemic will run its course, Levitt emphasizes his support of all the safety measures currently being taken and the need to adhere to them.

Levitt received his Nobel prize for chemistry in 2013 for “the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems.” He did not in any way intend to be a prophet foretelling the end of a plague; it happened by accident. His wife Shoshan Brosh is a researcher of Chinese art and a curator for local photographers, meaning the couple splits their time between the US, Israel, and China.

When the pandemic broke out, Brosh wrote to friends in China to support them. “When they answered us, describing how complicated their situation was, I decided to take a deeper look at the numbers in the hope of reaching some conclusion,” Levitt explained. “The rate of infection of the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30 percent each day — that is a scary statistic. I am not an influenza expert but I can analyze numbers and that is exponential growth.” At this rate, the entire world should have been infected within 90 days, he said.

But then, the trend changed. When Levitt started analyzing the data on February 1, Hubei had 1,800 new cases each day and within six days this number reached 4,700, he said. “And then, on February 7, the number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop. A week later, the same happened with the number of the deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.”

Levitt compared the situation to bank interest — if on the first day a person receives an interest rate of 30 percent on their savings, the next day of 29 percent, and so forth, “you understand that eventually, you will not earn very much.”

The messages his friends translated quickly made waves in China and people wanting to make sure he did indeed write the information attributed to him started contacting Levitt. “That is how I knew I needed to continue,” he said. “I could have said, yes, that’s what I said,’ and left it at that.”

New numbers were being reported every day by various entities, such as the World Health Organization (WHO). Levitt started sending regular reports to his Chinese friends, and their popularity led to interviews on Chinese television, for example on CNN-equivalent CGTN. Based on the diminishing number of infection cases and deaths, he said, the virus will probably disappear from China by the end of March.

Initially, Levitt said, every coronavirus patient in China infected on average 2.2 people a day — spelling exponential growth that can only lead to disaster. “But then it started dropping, and the number of new daily infections is now close to zero.” He compared it to interest rates again: “even if the interest rate keeps dropping, you still make money. The sum you invested does not lessen, it just grows more slowly. When discussing diseases, it frightens people a lot because they keep hearing about new cases every day. But the fact that the infection rate is slowing down means the end of the pandemic is near.”

There are several reasons for this, according to Levitt. “In exponential growth models, you assume that new people can be infected every day, because you keep meeting new people. But, if you consider your own social circle, you basically meet the same people every day. You can meet new people on public transportation, for example; but even on the bus, after some time most passengers will either be infected or immune.”

Another reason the infection rate has slowed has to do with the physical distance guidelines. “You don’t hug every person you meet on the street now, and you’ll avoid meeting face to face with someone that has a cold, like we did,” Levitt said. “The more you adhere, the more you can keep infection in check. So, under these circumstances, a carrier will only infect 1.5 people every three days and the rate will keep going down.”

Quarantine makes a difference, according to Levitt, but there are other factors at work. “We know China was under almost complete quarantine, people only left home to do crucial shopping and avoided contact with others. In Wuhan, which had the highest number of infection cases in the Hubei province, everyone had a chance of getting infected, but only 3 percent caught it,” he explained. “Even on the Diamond Princess (the virus-stricken cruise ship), the infection rate did not top 20 percent.” Based on these statistics, Levitt said, he concluded that many people are just naturally immune to the virus.

The explosion of cases in Italy is worrying, Levitt said, but he estimates it is a result of a higher percentage of elderly people than in China, France, or Spain. “Furthermore, Italian culture is very warm, and Italians have a very rich social life. For these reasons, it is important to keep people apart and prevent sick people from coming into contact with healthy people.”

China did great work and managed to gain complete control of the virus, Levitt said. “Currently, I am most worried about the US. It must isolate as many people as possible to buy time for preparations. Otherwise, it can end up in a situation where 20,000 infected people will descend on the nearest hospital at the same time and the healthcare system will collapse.”

Israel currently does not have enough cases to provide the data needed to make estimates, Levitt said, but from what he can tell, the Ministry of Health is dealing with the pandemic in a correct, positive way. “The more severe the defensive measures taken, the more they will buy time to prepare for needed treatment and develop a vaccine.”

Levitt avoids making global forecasts. In China, he said, the number of new infections will soon reach zero, and South Korea is past the median point and can already see the end. Regarding the rest of the world, it is still hard to tell, he said. “It will end when all those who are sick will only meet people they have already infected. The goal is not to reach the situation the cruise ship experienced.”

The Diamond Princess was the worst case scenario, according to Levitt. “If you compare the ship to a country — we are talking 250,000 people crowded into one square kilometer, which is horribly crowded. It is four times the crowding in Hong Kong. It is as if the entire Israeli population was crammed into 30 square kilometers.” Furthermore, he said, the ship had a central air conditioning and heating system and a communal dining room. “Those are extremely comfortable conditions for the virus and still, only 20 percent were infected. It is a lot, but pretty similar to the infection rate of the common flu.”

As with the flu, most of those dying as a result of coronavirus are over 70 years old, Levitt said. “It is a known fact that the flu mostly kills the elderly — around three-quarters of flu mortalities are people over 65.” To put things in proportion: “there are years when flu is raging, like in the US in 2017, when there were three times the regular number of mortalities. And still, we did not panic. That is my message: you need to think of corona like a severe flu. It is four to eight times as strong as a common flu, and yet, most people will remain healthy and humanity will survive.”

from:     https://www.algemeiner.com/2020/03/13/corona-is-slowing-down-humanity-will-survive-says-biophysicist-michael-levitt/