The National Hurricane Center (NHC) published a new five-day tropical weather outlook showing two disturbances developing in the eastern Atlantic.
“NHC is monitoring two disturbances for possible development within the next several days. A system in the eastern Atlantic has a high chance of development and a system near the Windward Islands has a medium chance of formation,” NHC said.
The next 7-10 days could be a period of heightened activity in the Atlantic and or the Gulf of Mexico. NHC said Disturbance #1 has a 50% chance of developing, and Disturbance #2 has a 70% chance of developing by the end of the week.
Meteorologist James Spann tweeted Monday, “the Atlantic basin is about to come alive.”
The Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire recorded a wind gust of 237 km/h (147 mph) at the summit on Tuesday evening, August 4, 2020, as post-tropical cyclone Isaias swept through the New England region. This is the strongest wind gust ever recorded at the mountain in the month of August, breaking the previous one set in 1954.
Mount Washington is the highest peak in the Northeastern United States at 1 916 m (6 288 feet). On average, the mountain sees gusts of about 39 km/h (24 mph) during the month of August.
Strong winds from Isaias knocked power to more than 140 000 customers in New Hampshire on Tuesday. Many wires and trees were downed, blocking scores of roads. During the height of the storm, the observatory registered 237 km/h (147 mph), which officially became the strongest gust for the month of August.
The previous record for the strongest wind gust for the month of August was during Hurricane “Carol” in 1954 at 228 km/h (142 mph).
The highest all-time wind gust on Mount Washington was 372 km/h (231 mph) set in April 1934. This was the highest wind speed ever recorded on Earth until 1996 when Tropical Cyclone “Olivia” set a new record at 407 km/h (253 mph) in Barrow Island, Australia.
A new tropical cyclone is organizing off the coast of North Carolina, U.S. on July 9, 2020. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone will likely form later today or tonight — NHC gives it 80% chance of formation in the next 48 hours.
If it gets named — next name in line is Fay — it will be the earliest 6th named storm formation in the Atlantic Ocean on record. The current record holder is Franklin on July 22, 2005.
Just a couple of days ago, on June 6, the basin had another record-breaker — Tropical Storm “Edouard” – the earliest 5th named storm in the Atlantic on record. The previous record-holder for the 5th named storm was Emily on July 12, 2005.
According to Dr. Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at CSU specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts, the first 5 Atlantic named storms of 2020 generated a measly 6.7 ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy — ACE — an integrated metric that accounts for intensity and duration).
Only 2 Atlantic hurricane seasons on record (since 1851) have had less ACE from 1st 5 storms of the year: 2017 and 1988.
Basically, the first 5 Atlantic named storms of 2020 have been quite weak and of relatively short duration, Klotzbach noted.
The Colorado State University (CSU) has chosen six analogs for its July seasonal hurricane forecast: 1966, 1995, 2003, 2008, 2011, and 2016. All of these years had above-average Atlantic hurricane activity and were generally characterized by cool neutral ENSO or La Nina conditions and warm tropical Atlantic.
Another reason for the active CSU Atlantic hurricane season forecast is odds of El Nino this summer/fall are extremely low. Tropical eastern and central Pacific remain cooler than normal. Atmospheric circulation is looking more La Nina-like with suppressed convection near the dateline.
Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina at 12:10 UTC on July 9, 2020. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA
At 12:00 UTC on July 9 (08:00 EDT), the low pressure area (expected to become Tropical Cyclone “Kay”) was located about 96 km (60 miles) east of Wilmington, North Carolina. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given it 80% chance of formation through the next 48 hours.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today.
The thunderstorm activity is currently located well east and northeast of the low’s center, but only a small increase in organization or a reformation of the center closer to the thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today or tonight, NHC forecaster Brown noted.
The low is expected to move northeastward or north-northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks later today and then along the mid-Atlantic coast tonight through Friday night (local time), July 10.
Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days.
Gusty winds are also possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks today, and along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and Saturday.
Featured image: Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina at 12:10 UTC on July 9, 2020. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA
Based on the observations of ocean heat content in the North Atlantic Ocean, the climate in the northern hemisphere is on the verge of a change that could last for several decades. This change is associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)1 – a mode of natural variability occurring, with a period of 60 – 80 years, in the North Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) field.
Observations made by Argo buoys2 have shown that the North Atlantic Ocean (60-0W, 30-65N) is rapidly cooling since 20073. This is associated with the natural variability in the North Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures – the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). However, the observed cooling does not only apply to the sea surface, but to the uppermost 700 m (2 296 feet) of the ocean.
The AMO index appears to be correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the northern hemisphere4. The association appears to be high for North Eastern Brazil, African Sahel rainfall and North American and European summer climate. The AMO index also appears to be associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes.
“As one example, the AMO index may be related to the past occurrence of major droughts in the US Midwest and the Southwest. When the AMO is high, these droughts tend to be more frequent or prolonged, and vice-versa for low values of AMO. Two of the most severe droughts of the 20th century in the US occurred during the peak AMO values between 1925 and 1965: The Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the 1950s drought. On the other hand, Florida and the Pacific Northwest tend to be the opposite; high AMO is associated with relatively high precipitation.”
Cooling of the Atlantic is likely to bring drier summers in Britain and Ireland, accelerated sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States, and drought in the developing countries of the African Sahel region, a press release for a study by scientists from the University of Southampton and National Oceanography Centre (NOC) published last year said5. “Since this new climatic phase could be half a degree cooler, it may well offer a brief reprise from the rise of global temperatures, as well as result in fewer hurricanes hitting the United States. The study proves that ocean circulation is the link between weather and decadal scale climatic change. It is based on observational evidence of the link between ocean circulation and the decadal variability of sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.”
Lead author of this study, Dr. Gerard McCarthy from the NOC, said: “Sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic vary between warm and cold over time-scales of many decades. These variations have been shown to influence temperature, rainfall, drought and even the frequency of hurricanes in many regions of the world. This decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences.”
These climatic phases, referred to as positive or negative AMO’s, are the result of the movement of heat northwards by a system of ocean currents. This movement of heat changes the temperature of the sea surface, which has a profound impact on climate on timescales of 20 – 30 years. The strength of these currents is determined by the same atmospheric conditions that control the position of the jet stream. Negative AMO’s occur when the currents are weaker and so less heat is carried northwards towards Europe from the tropics. The strength of ocean currents has been measured by a network of sensors, called the RAPID array, which have been collecting data on the flow rate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for a decade.
The AMOC, part of which is known as the Gulf Stream, has been seen to weaken over the past 10 years, a study by Laura Jackson of the UK’s Met Office said6. Her study also suggests that this weakening trend is likely due to variability over decades. “The AMOC plays a vital role in our climate as it transports heat northwards in the Atlantic and keeps Europe relatively warm,” Jackson said. Any substantial weakening of a major North Atlantic ocean current system would have a profound impact on the climate of northwest Europe, including the UK. The research also showed a link between the weakening in the AMOC and decreases in density in the Labrador Sea (between Greenland and Canada) several years earlier.
In the diagrams below, courtesy of Ole Humlum4, only original (raw) AMO values are shown.
Humlum writes: “As is seen from the annual diagram, the AMO index has been increasing since the beginning of the record in 1856, although with a clear, about 60 yr long, variation superimposed. Often, AMO values are shown linearly detrended to remove the overall increase since 1856, to emphasize the apparent rhythmic 60 yr variation. This detrending is usually intended to remove the alleged influence of greenhouse gas-induced global warming from the analysis, believed to cause the overall increase. However, as is seen in the diagram below, the overall increase has taken place since at least 1856, long before the alleged strong influence of increasing atmospheric CO2 began around 1975 (IPCC 2007). Therefore, the overall increase is likely to have another explanation; it may simply represent a natural recovery since the end of the previous cold period (the Little Ice Age). If so, the general AMO increase since 1856 may well represent part of a longer natural variation, too long to be fully represented by the AMO data series since 1856. For the above reasons, only the original (not detrended) AMO values are shown in the two diagrams below:”
Annual Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index values since 1856. The thin line indicates 3-month average values, and the thick line is the simple running 11-year average. Data source: Earth System Research Laboratory at NOAA. Last year shown: 2015. Last diagram update January 20, 2016.
Monthly Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index values since January 1979. The thin line indicates 3-month average values, and the thick line is the simple running 11-year average. By choosing January 1979 as starting point, the diagram is easy to compare with other types of temperature diagrams covering the satellite period since 1979. Data source: Earth System Research Laboratory at NOAA. Last month shown: May 2016. Last diagram update: June 13, 2016.
The map below shows the North Atlantic area within 60-0W and 30-65N, for which the heat content within the uppermost 700 m is shown in the diagrams below it3.
North Atlantic area within 60-0W and 30-65N. Credit: Climate4you
Global monthly heat content anomaly (GJ/m2) in the uppermost 700 m of the North Atlantic (60-0W, 30-65N) ocean since January 1979. The thin line indicates monthly values, and the thick line represents the simple running 37 month (c. 3 year) average. The starting month (January 1979) is chosen to enable easy comparison with global air temperature estimates within the satellite period. Data source: National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC). Last period shown: January-March 2016. Last diagram update June 7, 2016.
Global monthly heat content anomaly (GJ/m2) in the uppermost 700 m of the North Atlantic (60-0W, 30-65N) ocean since January 1955. The thin line indicates monthly values, and the thick line represents the simple running 37 month (c. 3 year) average. Data source: National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC). Last period shown: January-March 2016. Last diagram update June 7, 2016.
Interestingly, in a study by Zhou et al.7, a significant correlation was found between the solar wind speed (SWS) and sea surface temperature (SST) in the region of the North Atlantic Ocean for the northern hemisphere winter from 1963 to 2010, based on 3-month seasonal averages. “The correlation is dependent on Bz (the interplanetary magnetic field component parallel to the Earth’s magnetic dipole) as well as the SWS, and somewhat stronger in the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) west phase than in the east phase. The correlations with the SWS are stronger than those with the F10.7 parameter representing solar UV inputs to the stratosphere. SST responds to changes in tropospheric dynamics via wind stress, and to changes in cloud cover affecting the radiative balance. Suggested mechanisms for the solar influence on SST include changes in atmospheric ionization and cloud microphysics affecting cloud cover, storm invigoration, and tropospheric dynamics. Such changes modify upward wave propagation to the stratosphere, affecting the dynamics of the polar vortex. Also, direct solar inputs, including energetic particles and solar UV, produce stratospheric dynamical changes. Downward propagation of stratospheric dynamical changes eventually further perturbs tropospheric dynamics and SST.”
The solar-wind speeds peak about 3 or 4 years after the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and sunspots peak in each cycle8.
Sunspot number progression observed from 2000 – May 2016. Credit NOAA/SWPC
Based on the current sunspot observations, their number for this solar cycle has peaked in January 2015, and our star is now on a steady path toward its next Solar Minimum, expected to hit the base just after 2020.
Global sea surface temperature anomaly for June 13, 2016 – current deviation of the surface temperature of Earth’s oceans from normal. Credit: NCEP (link leads to the latest map)
North Atlantic Ocean sea surface anomaly for June 13, 2016 – current deviation from normal. Credit: NCEP (link leads to the latest map)
Argo – UCSanDiego – Argo is a major contributor to the WCRP ‘s Climate Variability and Predictability Experiment (CLIVAR) project and to the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE). The Argo array is part of the Global Climate Observing System/Global Ocean Observing System GCOS /GOOS
Government Implements Illegal “Gag Order” on National Weather Service and NOAA Employees
The power structure is beginning to panic as the public wakes up to the criminal climate engineering insanity. The growing police state is completely out of control and becoming unimaginably blatant with their actions. In recent weeks Washington has placed “gag orders” on the employees of “The National Weather Service” (NWS), the “National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration” (NOAA), and the “US Department of Commerce” agencies. This is a massive red flag that should trigger alarm bells everywhere.
Bill Hopkins, the executive vice president for the National Weather Service employees organization (NWSEO) said this: “As a taxpayer, I find it highly disturbing that a government agency continues to push gag orders to hide how they operate. This is the work of the American government, owned by the American public, and should be open to the American public.”
Jeff Ruch, the executive director of “PEER” (Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility) said this about the “gag orders”, noting that their broad scope put much of what goes on inside the agency under wraps: “The National Weather Service is about the last place where national security-style secrecy rules need to be enforced… Everyone is free to talk about the weather except for the people working inside the National Weather Service. Go figure.”
Some time ago I personally spoke to an NOAA scientist who said that “we all know it [climate engineering] is going on but we are afraid to speak out, we have no First Amendment protection”. Now, this new “gag order” is a further muzzling of the NWS and NOAA.
While there are many in the National Weather Service and NOAA who have had enough of lying about what is really going on in our skies, other weather agencies and personnel have been actively engaged in public deception, naming aircraft-sprayed aerosol clouds as if they are produced by nature. What did BBC “meteorologist” Ian Fergusson say about the picture below? “When rain, ice crystals or snow falls but evaporates before reaching the ground, it’s a [natural] phenomenon called ‘virga’ or ‘fallstreak’.” [source]
“This summer, the National Weather Service began requiring a signed confidentiality agreement (Exhibit I) from NWSEO participants along with all participants on the OWA teams. These agreements purport to bind NWSEO representatives from communicating with its members, members of Congress or any other person regarding agency plans and how they are determined. These agreements also do not contain terms allowing reports of actual or impending law or rule violations, gross mismanagement, waste or abuse.”
The PEER report continued, stating:
“The National Weather Service, NOAA and Commerce are presently implementing and enforcing nondisclosure agreements which violate the law.”
Common Core: Poisoning the Perceptions of Our Children
The decimation that has already been inflicted on our biosphere and all life from global geoengineering is so immense it could never be calculated. Weather modification programs are finally becoming all but impossible to hide, and the recent “gag orders” placed on weather reporting agency employees are a sign of true desperation on the part of the power structure.
But it doesn’t stop there. The criminal behavior of other government agencies and organizations shows they are willing to do or say anything to poison the perspectives of our children. This short 5 minute video (below) highlights deplorable propaganda embedded in the US Common Core education syllabus.
This Common Core test is shocking and enraging. Entitled “The Snowball”, the test scenario tells the story of a child who can’t properly make a snowball from the snow flakes falling around him due to the fact that “the government just couldn’t get the formula right” for the snow. This boy is then approached by a neighbor who professes to have an “authentic American snowball” in his freezer, stating that “it’s probably the last in America”.
Clearly, Common Core is not about helping our children to expand their minds and perspectives; it’s about conditioning them to be obedient cogs in the wheel of collective insanity. Common Core is the power-structure’s tool for making our kids just another brick in the wall, teaching them through testing in school, to accept such propaganda as government-created snow as “normal” — and it is truly unacceptable.
Inexcusable transgressions like those just outlined in the video above cannot be overlooked. The public email contacts of responsible parties should be posted and displayed everywhere possible. Such people must be placed on notice that we, the populations of the world, do not consent to their behavior. They should also be put on notice that at some point in the near future, the public will likely hold them legally and morally accountable as accomplices in the climate engineering assault by helping to cover the tracks of the perpetrators.
In the meantime, protecting and properly educating our children is up to us. Do we inform them about what is occurring above their heads? Yes. Do we make clear to them that we are fighting for their future? Yes. Do we do everything in our power to provide them hope and the chance to be a child without an excessive burden? Yes.
To truly show our love for the children of the world, we must fight for them with every breath we take, with every fiber of our being. It is this that drives me forward in this battle. We are fighting to save a future for our children. But too many in our society have rationalized their own personal pursuits of pleasure while claiming to love their children.
The video below is particularly close to my heart, two of the voices in this video are from my son and my daughter. They have hope for a future because they know we are fully committed to them. It is time for all to stand and join this fight for our very survival, and the survival of our children. There is only now, make your voice heard in this all important battle to expose and stop the greatest of all human assaults against life on Earth, global climate engineering. Our children need to know that our lives belong to them. We must all work together toward sounding the alarm, there is not a day to spare. Now more than ever we must all keep up our pace in the battle to expose and halt climate engineering.
My sincere gratitude to Mauro Oliveira for producing this video.
Category 4 Chapala On Its Way to Yemen; Texas Gasping after More Record Rain
By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters , 5:30 PM GMT on October 31, 2015
Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Chapala as seen from the International Space Station at sunset on Halloween evening, October 31, 2015. At the time, Chapala was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. The coast of Oman/Yemen is visible at the bottom of the image. Image credit: Commander Scott Kelly.
Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Chapala as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA’s Terra satellite on Saturday morning, October 31, 2015. At the time, Chapala was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
The forecast for Chapala
The biggest change since Friday is a southward departure in Chapala’s track. The cyclone is now heading due west and should continue on that bearing for the next couple of days, with a slight curve to the west-northwest as it approaches Yemen on Monday night. Chapala’s healthy structure may keep dry air at bay for some time, but eventually the cyclone should weaken as it near the Arabian Peninsula and ingests greater amounts of parched desert air. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center brings Chapala onshore in the high tropical-storm-strength range, with sustained winds possibly close to hurricane strength.
Figure 3. Three tropical cyclones are known to have made landfall on the southern coast of Oman and Yemen betwen 1891 and the beginning of modern satellite records (1990). Two of these reached northeast Yemen, in May 1959 and May 1960. Both were rated as “severe cyclonic storms” prior to landfall (solid line), meaning their top 3-minute average wind speeds were at least 48 knots (55 mph). Image credit: Courtesy Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Head, Cyclone Warning Division and Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, India Meteorological Department.
According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricanes tool, there have only been six major Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclones recorded in the Arabian Sea (though accurate satellite records go back to just 1990.) The Arabian Sea doesn’t get many tropical cyclones since it is small; furthermore, the Southwest Monsoon keeps the tropical cyclone season short, with a short season that lasts from May to early June before the monsoon arrives, then another short season in late October through November after the monsoon has departed. Strong Arabian Sea storms are rare due to high wind shear and copious dry air from the deserts of the Middle East, with just two Category 4 or 5 storms ever recorded–Gonu in 2007 and Phet in 2010. Both cyclones hit Oman after weakening below Category 4 strength.
Landfalling cyclones are even more rare in Yemen. The only one in the post-1990 satellite database is Tropical Depression Three of 2008 (also known as the 2008 Yemen Cyclone), which came on the heels of heavy rains from another storm and resulted in disastrous flooding. According to EM-DAT, the international disaster database, that storm killed 90 people and did $400 million in damage, making it the second worst natural disaster in Yemen’s history, behind a June 13, 1996 flood (thanks go to wunderground member TropicalAnalystwx13 for alerting us to this fact.) The India Meteorological Department maintains a database of tropical cyclones in the region going back to 1891 that shows two cyclonic storms reaching the Yemen coast in 1960 and 1961 (see Figure 3).
Chapala’s southward track will make it only the second tropical cyclone recorded near the mouth of the Gulf of Aden, which is crossed by roughly 400 ships a week. The adjustment in Chapala’s track could have major implications for Yemen, as it brings the center closer to the 980-year-old settlement of Al Mukalla (also known as Mukalla), a busy port and Yemen’s fifth-largest city (population around 300,000). If Chapala were to pass just south of Al Mukalla, the sharp angle of approach to the coast would accentuate any storm surge. Yemen has been in the grip of a civil war since March, so any landfall near this populated area could intersect with the conflict in hard-to-predict ways. According to an October 30 article from Reuters, ten of Yemen’s 22 governorates were assessed as being in an emergency food situation in June, one step below famine on a five-point scale. The assessment has not been updated since then, partly because experts have not managed to get sufficient access to survey the situation. About a third of the country’s population, or 7.6 million people urgently require food aid, the The U.N. World Food Programme said (thanks go to wunderground member barbamz for alerting us to this article.)
As it moves ashore, Chapala will slam into steep mountains near the coast, boosting its potential to dump several years’ worth of rain in just a day or two (see Figure 6). The annual average rainfall in Yemen is less than 2” along the immediate coast and less than 5” inland, except along higher terrain, where it can approach 10”. Any landfall near Al Mukalla could result in serious urban flooding (the city straddles a canal that extends to the coast from the adjacent mountainsides).
Figure 6. The 5-day rainfall forecast from the 2 am EDT Saturday, October 31, 2015 run of the HWRF model called for some truly stunning rainfall amounts in the parched desert regions of eastern Yemen: over two feet! Image credit: NOAA/EMC.
Rain-weary Texans deal with another deluge
Yet another round of epic downpours struck the heart of Texas from Friday into Saturday. The focus on Friday morning was the HIll Country and the adjacent San Antonio and Austin metro areas, which suffered through record rain and destructive flooding back in May. The air traffic control center at Austin’s Bergstrom International Airport has been shut down after being inundated with six inches of water on Friday. A Houston center is handling its duties until a temporary facility arrives on Monday. Bergstrom received 5.76” of rain in just one hour, as part of a phenomenal calendar-day total of 14.99” on Friday. That’s more than the site had ever recorded in any prior 14-day period! (Records at Bergstrom go back to 1942. Thanks to Nick Wiltgen at weather.com for this statistic.). The total also came within a hair (0.067%) of reaching the city’s all-time 24-hour record of 15.00”, set at Camp Mabry on September 9, 1921, in association with a Category 1 hurricane that caused severe flooding in the San Antonio area. Further south, Brownsville had its second wettest October day in 128 years of recordkeeping, with 6.55” on Friday beaten only by 9.09” on October 4, 1996, in association with Tropical Storm Josephine. The absence of a tropical cyclone makes this event across central and south Texas all the more remarkable.
Figure 7. Jim Richardson and his wife Jeannette look on as the Blanco River recedes after the flash flood in Wimberly, Texas Friday, Oct. 30, 2015. A fast-moving storm packing heavy rain and destructive winds overwhelmed rivers and prompted evacuations Friday in the same area of Central Texas that saw devastating spring floods. Image credit: Ricardo Brazziell/Austin American-Statesman via AP.
A subsequent round of heavy thunderstorms moved into southeast Texas overnight and into Saturday morning, causing widespread flooding in the Houston area, as well as scattered wind damage perhaps associated with one or more tornadoes. With light rain hanging on at noon CDT Saturday, Houston’s Hobby Airport had received 6.50” for the day, bringing its monthly total to 14.24”. Hobby will fall short of the Houston area’s wettest October on record, 17.64” in 1949, a total largely goosed by a Category 2 hurricane early that month. The front edge of this sprawling area of heavy thunderstorms is now approaching southeast Louisiana, which has also been hammered by heavy rain in October. Baton Rouge had received 10.85” for the month as of Friday, and New Orleans 8.88”. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is calling for as much as 5-6” of rain over the area today into Sunday. Baton Rouge has an outside chance of scoring its wettest October on record (17.64”, from 1949; records go back to 1889), as does the Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport (13.20” in 1985, in association with Hurricane Juan; records go back to 1946).
Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport racked up another 2.25” from Friday through 11:00 am CDT Saturday. The airport has now recorded 48.92” for the year, making 2015 the sixth wettest year since DFW-area records began in 1898. One of the most reliable U.S. impacts from El Niño is increased cold-season rainfall from Texas to Florida. Given the strong El Niño influence already at hand, DFW has a good chance over the next two months of topping 53.54” (1991) to score its wettest year on record. In fact, it could happen quite soon: WPC is projecting 2” to 5” of rain across central North Texas late next week, as another strong Pacific upper-level storm carves its way into the western U.S. That storm will give the Pacific Northwest a seasonally heavy drenching this weekend, and it may leave the first significant accumulation of the season along the snow-starved Sierra Nevada on Monday and Tuesday–perhaps as much as a foot on the highest peaks. A winter storm watch has been hoisted for the region, but we’re guessing most residents will be elated rather than spooked by this October 31 development. Have a great Halloween weekend, everyone!
NOAA Winter Outlook: El Niño a Dominant Player, but Wild Cards Still Possible
By: Bob Henson , 7:54 PM GMT on October 15, 2015
Figure 1. NOAA’s outlook for winter temperatures (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the three-month period from December 2015 to February 2016. NOAA outlooks are expressed as probabilities for above- or below-average conditions. In the three-class system used by NOAA, an area labeled “equal chances” means that there’s roughly a 33% chance each of below-, near-, or above-average outcomes. If a location is shown with higher odds of above-average conditions, then the probability for below-average outcomes goes down proportionally (e.g., 50% above-average, 33% near-average, and 17% below-average). See NOAA’s online reference guide for more details.
In a nutshell: Wet and cool South, mild and dry North
The enhanced subtropical jet streams common during El Niño tend to boost precipitation across the U.S. Sunbelt and decrease it toward the northern tier of states, as reflected in Figure 1. The same dynamics act to “smoosh out” temperature contrasts across the nation: the cloudy, wet conditions across the South are often accompanied by chilly temperatures, while the drier conditions toward the Northern Rockies are often joined by relatively mild air. NOAA’s Mike Halpert said at a Thursday-morning teleconference that the forecast implies about 2% fewer heating degree days than average. This would also be about 6% fewer days than last winter, he added.
A couple of key caveats:
—NOAA’s probabilities are not meant to imply any judgment on how intense an outcome might be. They’re simply showing where unusually cool, mild, wet, or dry conditions may prevail. Higher odds for those outcomes don’t necessarily mean that the results will be more dramatic than in other areas.
—As the name implies, the seasonal outlooks are meant to convey conditions for the three-month winter period as a whole. They aren’t designed to show how much variability there could be across those three months, and of course weather can vary a great deal within a 90-day period.
With that in mind, let’s look at a few potential regional wild cards around the contiguous 48 states. (Warmer- and drier-than-average conditions are good bets for both Hawaii and Alaska.) For more detail on how El Niño affects various parts of the nation, see our roundups published on July 28 and July 30.
The strongest El Niño events—like the one now in place–are closely linked to wet winter conditions, especially over Southern California. In both 1982-83 and 1997-98, California arguably got too much of a good thing, with mudslides and floods causing millions in damage. In his October blog post, WU weather historian Chris Burt takes a close look at how those two seasons panned out. One important element will be the temperatures that accompany any big winter storms. If they’re on the warm side—a big problem in recent years—then the snowpack accumulating over the Sierra Nevada could end up disappointingly low. Regardless, aquifers and ecosystems stand to benefit big time if El Niño produces as expected. Overall, this winter offers the best chance in years for California to make up some (though not all) of the hydrologic ground it’s lost during the severe drought in place since 2011. Residents will need to keep calm and carry on for a while longer, though, as the parade of storms common during strong El Niños often doesn’t arrive until December or even January. And crucially, even high odds aren’t the same as a guarantee. While the mega-El Niños of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were both very good to California in terms of precipitation, one of the three next-strongest events (1965-66) fell below average in winter precipitation for all but southern California. You can see how El Niños of various strengths performed at Jan Null’s excellent website on El Niño and California precipitation.
This region is heading into the El Niño of 2015-16 after a dry winter and a very warm, dry summer. Unfortunately, one of the most dependable outcomes of a strong El Niño is winter warmth and dryness from Oregon and Washington into Montana. So the region could go into spring and summer 2016 with even more water worries than last year.
Drab winter weather—chilly and damp—is likely to prevail from Texas to the Southeast coast in 2015-16. The risk of severe weather may be boosted along the immediate Gulf and southeast Atlantic coastal areas. Florida, in particular, needs to watch the skies this winter, as strong El Niño events are associated with a heightened risk of tornado outbreaks, as in the deadly Kissimmee outbreak of February 1998.
The Midwest and Northeast
Tucked inside the somewhat equivocal NOAA outlook for this region is some important nuance. The 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niños both led to a vast swath of warm winter conditions covering much of Canada and the northern United States, all the way from the Northern Plains to New England. Given the long-term trend toward warmer global temperatures, some truly impressive “warm waves” seem likely to take shape in this area. At the same time, the last few winters have been surprisingly cold and snowy over parts of the Midwest and Northeast. Various experts attribute this to the reverberations of unusually warm water in parts of the tropical Atlantic, the presence in some years of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and/or the loss of Arctic sea ice. We don’t yet know how all of these factors will line up for 2015-16, but I would cast my lot on a mixed-bag winter from the mid-Atlantic to New England, with periods of marked warmth punctuated by occasional sharp but transient cold blasts. Those could end up producing at least one big snowstorm if a negative NAO enters the picture. A good case in point is the winter of 1982-83, when a comparably strong El Niño was in place. Though the winter of 1982-83 averaged quite mild in the Northeast, it also produced the crippling Megapolitan snowstorm of February 10-12, 1983, which dumped 20” – 30” in northwestern suburbs from Washington to Boston. Below is a “blast from the past” YouTube audio clip of a KYW radio newscast from the Philadelphia area during the height of the storm.
The newly produced map below reveals the most recent NASA “forecast” for planet Earth, “mostly cloudy”. This composite image of Earth’s cloud patterns shows NASA’s Aqua satellite observations from July 2002 to April 2015. Colors range from dark blue (no clouds) to white (frequent clouds). Photo credit: NASA Earth Observatory
The bright white aerosolized cloud cover broadcasting out from the areas of precipitation in the map are indicative of the aerosol spraying that is taking place in each region. A massive heavily sprayed zonal flow of moisture is very visible plowing into the entire west coast, yet there is almost no precipitation showing up for the reasons already cited. Historically, counterclockwise swirls of low pressure storms constantly pounded the Pacific Northwest with heavy precipitation. Now, more often than not, there are just large drifting massive canopies of heavily aerosolized cloud cover with some rain in the most dense areas of moisture build up. “Mostly sunny” is now also a common meteorological term of choice and is often used in “forecasting” days with heavy spraying. “Meteorologists”, in so many cases, are now simply paid liars reading the scripts they are given .
Take a good look next map below, If you think the images in the map are just “clouds” showing up on radar, they are not, and the National Weather Service admits it. So what are these large and very distinct radar images from? According to the National Weather Service, it’s all just “butterflies”. No, this is not a joke. “Official statements” from “official sources” are becoming astounding beyond comprehension.
Below is the NOAA forecast (scheduled weather) map for the middle of October. Each shade represents a 2-3 degree “departure from normal” temperature zone. Places in the western US are thus “forecasted” to be a record shattering 20 to 25 degrees above normal which has already been the case for an extremely long time. The record heat and drought continues to fuel record forest fires in the region.
The next image shows that the remaining pool of cold air at the top of the world is rapidly shrinking as the geoengineering juggernaut of insanity continues to shred the ozone layer and the climate system as a whole (along with other contributing anthropogenic factors).
The global temperature maps below reflect the true state of our rapidly warming completely geoengineered planet.
Joaquin Close to Category 5 Strength; Rains Inundate Carolinas
By: Bob Henson , 6:01 PM GMT on October 03, 2015
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Hurricane Joaquin.
Joaquin’s burst of strength is especially remarkable given that a strong El Niño is under way (El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by enhancing wind shear). The last Atlantic storm with sustained winds this strong was Hurricane Igor, in 2010, which peaked at 155 mph. The Atlantic’s last Category 5 was Hurricane Felix, in 2007, with winds topping out at 160 mph. The last El Niño season that managed to produce a Category 5 was 2004, when Ivan formed. However, the El Niño event of 2004-05 was relatively weak, with autumn Niño3.4 anomalies of only around +0.7°C compared to the current value of more than +2.0°C.
Joaquin is also in an area where very few Category 5 track segments have been reported since reliable records began in 1950 (see Figure 2). Record-warm waters in this part of the Northwest Atlantic are likely playing a major role in Joaquin’s unusual strength. Joaquin was designated as a tropical depression on Sunday night, September 27, at latitude 27.5°N. This makes Joaquin one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record to have begun its life as a tropical cyclone at such a high latitude. In fact, Joaquin’s latest location (26.4°N. 70.9°W) is still south of its origin point.
Fortunately for the United States, Joaquin is hustling into the open Atlantic, now moving northeast at 16 mph. Track models are fairly consistent in keeping Joaquin west of Bermuda, but with only a small margin for error. Bermuda is now under a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning; at a minimum, the island can expect high surf, strong winds, and a few squalls from outer-edge rainbands, especially as Joaquin makes its closest approach on Monday.
Figure 2. In this map of all Category 5 hurricanes reported in the Atlantic since 1950, bright purple indicates the segments where Category 5 strength was analyzed. Image credit: The Weather Channel, courtesy Jon Erdman.
Figure 3. Satellite image Hurricane Joaquin taken at noon EDT October 3, 2015. At the time, the hurricane was just below Category 5 strength with top winds of 155 mph. A band of very heavy rain can also been seen feeding into South Carolina, to the northwest of the hurricane. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Figure 4. Flooding from heavy rain swamps the intersection of Huger Street and King Street in Charleston, S.C. on Saturday, October 3, 2015. Image credit: Matthew Fortner/The Post And Courier, via AP.
Severe flooding likely in South Carolina Saturday and Sunday
As expected, a band of torrential rain has materialized over South Carolina, paving the way for an especially dangerous situation from Saturday afternoon into Sunday. As of midday Saturday, the heaviest rain extended from the south half of the South Carolina coastline northwest across the state to the hilly Uplands region. The swath of intense rain will pivot very slowly in a counterclockwise direction, gradually translating southward over the higher terrain but moving very little near the coastline. This will put the area around Charleston at particular risk of severe flash flooding from Saturday afternoon into Sunday. CoCoRaHS maps show widespread rain totals of 4” – 8” in the Charleston area from 7:00 am EDT Friday to 7:00 am Saturday.
Figure 5. Predicted 15-hour rainfall totals from the HRRR model for the period from 10:00 am Saturday, October 3, to 1:00 am Sunday, October 4. Image credit: NWS/NCEP.
The Charleston area has a reasonable chance of beating the all-time three-day rainfall records below, possibly in just a 24-hour period!
North Charleston, SC (CHS)
Records begin in 1938
Downtown Charleston, SC (CXM)
Records begin in 1870
Forecasters are particularly concerned that high-tide cycles in Charleston may coincide with periods of torrential rain, which could produce extreme flash flooding in the city in short order. The Saturday afternoon high tide of 8.2 feet was the highest to occur since Hurricane Hugo in 1989. The next tides will occur in Charleston at 1:34 am and 2:03 pm on Sunday.
Surrounding states are also experiencing heavy rain and flood threats. Mudslides and landslides are possible in the higher terrain of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. A strengthening of the onshore flow that has persisted for several days over the mid-Atlantic will again raise the risk of significant tidal flooding from Virginia to New Jersey, especially in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia.
Tropical Storm Oho may threaten Hawaii
The hyperactive Central Pacific broke its record–again–for the most number of named storms in a single season with the christening of Tropical Storm Oho on Saturday. According to NHC’s Eric Blake, Oho is the eighth tropical storm to form in the Central Pacific this year, doubling the previous record of just four. Oho is now located roughly 500 miles south-southeast of Honolulu. The steering patterns that will drive Oho are ill-defined and still evolving, which complicates the track forecast. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center currently projects Oho to arc northwest over the next couple of days, then move more briskly toward the east and northeast on a path that would keep it a couple hundred miles south of Hawaii’s Big Island early next week. There is plenty of room for this forecast to evolve, though. Oho has the chance to become a powerful hurricane, thanks to the weak upper-level flow as well as record-warm waters that have fueled so many other tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific this year. The SHIPS rapid intensification index gives Oho a good chance of rapidly strengthening from Saturday into Sunday. Oho now has top sustained winds of just 40 mph, but most dynamical and statistical models are making Oho a hurricane by Monday, and several bring it to Category 2 status by Thursday.
Elsewhere in the tropics
An array of other systems peppered the Northern Hemisphere tropics on Saturday. In the Central Atlantic, Invest 90L is looking less robust, with NHC now giving it only a 40% chance of development in the next 2 to 5 days. A late-blooming Cape Verde wave between 30°W and 35°W poses little threat over at least the next several days, and strong wind shear at low latitudes will probably cap any later development.
Figure 7. WU’s latest tracking map for tropical cyclones around the globe.
In the Northeast Pacific, Invest 94E is slowly organizing more than 1000 miles southwest of Baja California. NHC gives 94E a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday and a 50% chance by Thursday. Closer to Mexico, the remants of Tropical Storm Marty could produce heavy rainfall as they move inland on Sunday into Monday. Some moisture from ex-Marty may get entrained into an upper-level storm taking shape early next week in the Southwest U.S., possibly delivering strong thunderstorms to the Arizona deserts on Monday.
In the Central Pacific, still another system–Tropical Depression 8C, the 13th tropical cyclone to form or pass through the Central Pacific this year–formed on Saturday morning about 1100 miles southwest of Honolulu. Moderate southerly shear should keep 8C from developing beyond minimal tropical-storm strength for at least the next couple of days as it pushes westward.
In the Northwest Pacific, Typhoon Mujigae may strengthen slightly over the next 24 hours before it moves into the coast of extreme southern China, southwest of Hong Kong. To the east, Tropical Storm Choi-Wan will slowly gather steam and may become a minimal typhoon early next week before an expected recurvature just east of Japan by midweek.
Photo of “Rocky Fire” in Lake County California, August 2, 2015
Modern industrialized society has inflicted immense damage to our planet and it’s life support systems. Though there are countless forms of anthropogenic destruction, climate engineering is the most expansive and lethal of all. If you don’t believe those in power have the right to control the climate system and your future, then make your voice heard in this battle. Reading this article or a thousand more like it won’t get the job done, we must all make every possible effort to wake others by sharing critical and credible data with them and asking them to also help spread the word. If we do not all take a stand today, we will not have tomorrow. DW