Winter Weather Forecast

NOAA Winter Outlook: El Niño a Dominant Player, but Wild Cards Still Possible

By: Bob Henson , 7:54 PM GMT on October 15, 2015

Figure 1. NOAA’s outlook for winter temperatures (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the three-month period from December 2015 to February 2016. NOAA outlooks are expressed as probabilities for above- or below-average conditions. In the three-class system used by NOAA, an area labeled “equal chances” means that there’s roughly a 33% chance each of below-, near-, or above-average outcomes. If a location is shown with higher odds of above-average conditions, then the probability for below-average outcomes goes down proportionally (e.g., 50% above-average, 33% near-average, and 17% below-average). See NOAA’s online reference guide for more details.

In a nutshell: Wet and cool South, mild and dry North
The enhanced subtropical jet streams common during El Niño tend to boost precipitation across the U.S. Sunbelt and decrease it toward the northern tier of states, as reflected in Figure 1. The same dynamics act to “smoosh out” temperature contrasts across the nation: the cloudy, wet conditions across the South are often accompanied by chilly temperatures, while the drier conditions toward the Northern Rockies are often joined by relatively mild air. NOAA’s Mike Halpert said at a Thursday-morning teleconference that the forecast implies about 2% fewer heating degree days than average. This would also be about 6% fewer days than last winter, he added.

A couple of key caveats:

—NOAA’s probabilities are not meant to imply any judgment on how intense an outcome might be. They’re simply showing where unusually cool, mild, wet, or dry conditions may prevail. Higher odds for those outcomes don’t necessarily mean that the results will be more dramatic than in other areas.

—As the name implies, the seasonal outlooks are meant to convey conditions for the three-month winter period as a whole. They aren’t designed to show how much variability there could be across those three months, and of course weather can vary a great deal within a 90-day period.

With that in mind, let’s look at a few potential regional wild cards around the contiguous 48 states. (Warmer- and drier-than-average conditions are good bets for both Hawaii and Alaska.) For more detail on how El Niño affects various parts of the nation, see our roundups published on July 28 and July 30.

The strongest El Niño events—like the one now in place–are closely linked to wet winter conditions, especially over Southern California. In both 1982-83 and 1997-98, California arguably got too much of a good thing, with mudslides and floods causing millions in damage. In his October blog post, WU weather historian Chris Burt takes a close look at how those two seasons panned out. One important element will be the temperatures that accompany any big winter storms. If they’re on the warm side—a big problem in recent years—then the snowpack accumulating over the Sierra Nevada could end up disappointingly low. Regardless, aquifers and ecosystems stand to benefit big time if El Niño produces as expected. Overall, this winter offers the best chance in years for California to make up some (though not all) of the hydrologic ground it’s lost during the severe drought in place since 2011. Residents will need to keep calm and carry on for a while longer, though, as the parade of storms common during strong El Niños often doesn’t arrive until December or even January. And crucially, even high odds aren’t the same as a guarantee. While the mega-El Niños of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were both very good to California in terms of precipitation, one of the three next-strongest events (1965-66) fell below average in winter precipitation for all but southern California. You can see how El Niños of various strengths performed at Jan Null’s excellent website on El Niño and California precipitation.

Pacific Northwest
This region is heading into the El Niño of 2015-16 after a dry winter and a very warm, dry summer. Unfortunately, one of the most dependable outcomes of a strong El Niño is winter warmth and dryness from Oregon and Washington into Montana. So the region could go into spring and summer 2016 with even more water worries than last year.

The South
Drab winter weather—chilly and damp—is likely to prevail from Texas to the Southeast coast in 2015-16. The risk of severe weather may be boosted along the immediate Gulf and southeast Atlantic coastal areas. Florida, in particular, needs to watch the skies this winter, as strong El Niño events are associated with a heightened risk of tornado outbreaks, as in the deadly Kissimmee outbreak of February 1998.

The Midwest and Northeast
Tucked inside the somewhat equivocal NOAA outlook for this region is some important nuance. The 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niños both led to a vast swath of warm winter conditions covering much of Canada and the northern United States, all the way from the Northern Plains to New England. Given the long-term trend toward warmer global temperatures, some truly impressive “warm waves” seem likely to take shape in this area. At the same time, the last few winters have been surprisingly cold and snowy over parts of the Midwest and Northeast. Various experts attribute this to the reverberations of unusually warm water in parts of the tropical Atlantic, the presence in some years of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and/or the loss of Arctic sea ice. We don’t yet know how all of these factors will line up for 2015-16, but I would cast my lot on a mixed-bag winter from the mid-Atlantic to New England, with periods of marked warmth punctuated by occasional sharp but transient cold blasts. Those could end up producing at least one big snowstorm if a negative NAO enters the picture. A good case in point is the winter of 1982-83, when a comparably strong El Niño was in place. Though the winter of 1982-83 averaged quite mild in the Northeast, it also produced the crippling Megapolitan snowstorm of February 10-12, 1983, which dumped 20” – 30” in northwestern suburbs from Washington to Boston. Below is a “blast from the past” YouTube audio clip of a KYW radio newscast from the Philadelphia area during the height of the storm.

Bob Henson


Winter Weather Forecast 2015-16

Climate Engineering, El Niño and the “Scheduled Weather” for the Coming Winter in The US

Climate Engineering, El Niño And The Bizarre ''Scheduled Weather'' For The Coming Winter In The US

24th September 2015

By Dane Wigington

Guest Writer for Wake Up World

Weather “forecasters” are now trumpeting the arrival of a “Godzilla” El Niño event, but somehow they seem to already know that there will be no relief for the epic California drought.

How can such a prediction be made so early on? Because of ongoing climate engineering.

Ocean temperatures in the Eastern Pacific are at record shattering high levels (pictured top), so why wouldn’t this translate into more rain for the now empty reservoirs in Northern California? Since when does El Niño not bring more rain to the West??

The El Niño pattern has been trying to form since 2007 but has been repeatedly suppressed by what meteorologists have coined as “the ridiculously resilient ridge” of constant high pressure over the US west coast. Was this rain-starving scenario the result of climate engineers and their aggressive effort to suppress El Niño formation in a destructive attempt to hold the lid on soaring global temperatures? Yes.

The Eastern Pacific (off of the US west coast) is constantly the target of massive aerosol spraying operations. Given their secrecy, the question must be asked: Is “solar radiation management” the only goal of this spraying, or are the known drought-causing impacts of atmospheric aerosol saturation and ionosphere heater high pressure zones a desired outcome for the geoengineers?

The electrically conductive heavy metals being sprayed enhances the effectiveness of ionosphere heater installations (like HAARP) which would then increase the weather-makers’ ability to create and maintain consistent zones of high pressure. What does a completely sprayed Eastern Pacific look like on a radar map? The reflective metals show up like precipitation when there is none, the radar image below is a glaring example.

Climate Engineering, El Niño and the Bizarre “Scheduled Weather” for the Coming Winter in The US - West Coast Precipitation Map

Climate engineering is about power and control, and about hiding the severity of climate damage already done (while doing even more damage at the same time) from a population that so far has not wanted to face the truth in the first place. The climate engineers have managed to keep the Eastern US cooler than average for almost three years in spite of a record warm world.

Why? To help manipulate the perception of the US population.

How anomalous has the Eastern US cool-down been? The map below covers “departure from normal high temperatures” for a two year period from 2013 to 2015, this is clear as it gets.

Climate Engineering, El Niño and the Bizarre “Scheduled Weather” for the Coming Winter in The US - Anomalous Temperatures Map

What should the expected impacts should be in the US for a strong El Niño Event?

Climate Engineering, El Niño and the Bizarre “Scheduled Weather” for the Coming Winter in The US - Impact on Winter

With a potential record El Niño, abundant precipitation should show up in California with overall temperatures pushed from above normal to far above normal throughout the US. Higher temperatures should be especially prevalent given the fact that our planet is free falling into a state of total meltdown. All this being said, how is it some of the latest “forecasts” call for the US West to continue frying into the fall with little to no rain and with wildfires still raging? And with predicted snowfall further inland?

Climate Engineering, El Niño and the Bizarre “Scheduled Weather” for the Coming Winter in The US - UccuWeather Highlights Fall 2015

Next, given the fact that we have a record warm world, record warm oceans surrounding the US, a record El Niño, and predictions of above normal highs in the Northern US (see below), how can it be possible for winter predictions of a “below average” temperature band to run right through the US from Southern California, to the Gulf Coast, to New York, covering some of the most heavily populated zones of the country?

The “forecast map” below should be carefully examined.

Climate Engineering, El Niño and the Bizarre “Scheduled Weather” for the Coming Winter in The US - Winter Temperature Outlook December to February

Other maps (below) use terms like “wintry battle zone” to describe their predictions for the southern states, in spite of the record warm condition of our planet already noted. The map below also states there may be “above normal” snow in spite of warmer temperatures.

Climate Engineering, El Niño and the Bizarre “Scheduled Weather” for the Coming Winter in The US - Early 2015-2016 Winter Forecast Map

How can there be such anomalies? How does NOAA know about them already? Radical and highly destructive climate manipulation is how. These weather “predictions” are nothing more than the scheduled weather. 

Who is running the weather forecast industry?

In regard to weather forecasting, with few exceptions, the global power structure owns it all. Those in power have gone to insane, unimaginable, and unbelievably destructive lengths in their attempt to control the weather. In order to hide the crimes of the climate engineering assault on our planet, the globalists also needed to control the flow of information to the public that relates to the weather and climate. Thus the purchase of weather reporting and data modelling companies was necessary.

Climate Engineering, El Niño and the Bizarre “Scheduled Weather” for the Coming Winter in The US - The Weather Channel Chemtrails

Defense contractor Raytheon is involved in geoengineering programs, owns geoengineering patents, and also does the weather modeling for NOAA and the National Weather Service. Lockheed Martin (another defense contractor involved in weather modification) supplies the weather modeling for the FAA. The Rothschilds own the controlling interest in the world’s leading provider of interactive weather graphics and data services, and actually supply the weather modeling “predictions” for government agencies. The Weather Channel is owned by massive multinational corporations that are a core part of the global power cabal. And let’s not forget about Monsanto Corporation and their purchase of “Climate Corp” for nearly a billion dollars.

(Learn more at: The Weather Channel Interactive and Monsanto Announce New Agriculture News & Forecast Web Site.)

The Weather Channel and their cast of paid disinformation actors are tasked with covering up the completely engineered and unnatural climate anomalies that are now occurring constantly as the geoengineering programs are fully unleashed. The WC “meteorologists” constantly explain away an endless list of climate engineered events and occurrences as if completely natural. Many of the Weather Channel’s background photos are actually skies filled with geoengineering aerosol clouds, this is part of their disinformation and conditioning campaign.

The Weather Channel’s Geoengineering Advertisement Describes Geoengineering Chemtrails as a “$4 Trillion Solar Umbrella”

Continuously cooling down heavily populated regions of the US is about engineering public perception for as long as possible. Controlling the message also allows them to control public perception. Meteorologists (with few exceptions) are paid liars who are simply reading scripts. Their job is to convince the population that the completely engineered climate is just “natural weather”. Their job is to convince the population that “mostly sunny” predictions that involve the sprayed-out skies we are all subjected to are just normal. Their job is to cover the tracks of the criminal climate engineers. Anyone that contributes to such a cover-up in exchange for a paycheck and a pension should be considered a criminal accomplice to the geoengineering crimes. When the Weather Channel is not busy covering for the geoengineers, they now simply show countless reality shows in order to altogether avoid actually covering the engineered weather.

So how about those predicted cold zones which are surrounded by record warm oceans and a record warm world? Welcome to engineered snow storms. The Chinese openly announced their practice of engineering snow storms out of what should have been rain until they did a billion dollars of damage to Beijing. Do you believe our government does not know how to do the same? And do you believe our government would actually ask our permission before doing it?

Climate Engineering, El Niño and the Bizarre “Scheduled Weather” for the Coming Winter in The US - China's Weather Manipulation

With enough atmospheric moisture the geoengineers can produce snowstorms under a wide variety of conditions. The July 2015 snowstorm in Jackson Hole Wyoming is one of many examples. The extra moisture from El Niño will be used for the chemical cool-downs already scheduled for the US this winter. As the planetary meltdown accelerates, the Arctic continues to melt and glaciers continue to disintegrate around the world, the climate engineers are becoming increasingly desperate and blatant in their aggressive planetary assault. It appears that the moisture Northern California needs so badly may be siphoned by the climate engineers for use further east in the US.

Whatever unfolds this winter, this point should be clear: the geoengineers and the global power structure have a noose around our collective necks and they are not about to let go. They control not only the weather, but the toxicity of the air we breath, the water we drink, and the soils we need to grow our food in. Though there are countless forms of anthropogenic damage to the planet and the climate system (this must always be considered and remembered), climate engineering is mathematically the greatest and most destructive single factor of all. If we are to have any chance at preserving Earth’s life support systems, we must all make our voices heard in the battle to expose and stop climate engineering.


Pacific Dead Zones, EL Nino & Climate Change

Geoengineering Is Fueling Superheated Pacific Dead Zones

by Dane Wigington Aug 11, 2015


The Eastern Pacific ocean is superheating, as this process continues, so will marine ecosystem implosion. The climate engineers have aggressively interfered with all of the planet’s processes and natural cycles. This includes the El Niño events which the weather makers have actively tried to suppress. Why? It was likely done in order to temporarily hide the escalating planetary meltdown by attempting to bottle up much of the rapidly building heat in the oceans. Even worse, ocean fertilization (another calamitous form of climate engineering) is contributing to the unfolding ecosystem collapse in our seas. All of these processes are fueling stagnant stratified superheated dead zones with exploding blooms of highly toxic algae. The article below is the latest update from the front lines. Though the climate engineering subject is taboo for all mainstream sources of information, the data cited is still accurate and alarming.
Dane Wigington

Record Algae Bloom Laced With Toxins Is Flourishing In “The Blob” — And Spreading In The North Pacific

Source: Discover, article by Tom Yulsman



An animation of satellite images showing algae blooming in the waters around Vancouver Island on July 18, 2015. See below for a detailed explanation. (Images: NASA Worldview. Animation: Tom Yulsman)

It has been called “The Blob,” a gigantic patch of abnormally warm water sitting in the Northeast Pacific Ocean for months. And now, The Blob may have helped midwife a record-breaking bloom of algae stretching from Southern California all the way north to Alaska.

More about that warm water in a minute. But first, that giant algae bloom: It consists of tiny marine plants known as phytoplankton, and it is “laced with some toxic species that have had far-reaching consequences for sea life and regional and local economies,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Toxins from the algae are suspected to have contributed to the deaths of at least nine Fin whales near Kodiak Island, Alaska, in June, although a definitive cause has not yet been determined, NOAA says.  There have also been reports of dead and dying whales, gulls, and forage fish in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, possibly connected to the algae.

And over the past few months, according to NOAA:

. . . extremely high levels of an algal toxin called domoic acid, which is produced by a group of phytoplankton called Pseudo-nitzschia, have led to closures of recreational razor clam harvests in Oregon and Washington, as well as closing of large portions of the Washington state Dungeness crab fishery and some of the sardine and anchovy fisheries in California.

You can see evidence of part of the vast algae bloom in the animation above. It consists of satellite views of the waters surrounding Vancouver Island, and off the Olympic Peninsula in Washington State.

The colorful image consists of data from NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites. The yellow, orange and red colors are indicative of relatively high levels of chlorophyll in the water. Like all plants, phytoplankton use chlorophyll for photosynthesis, the process by which they use sunlight for their energy needs.

The other image shows the same scene but in natural color. I have fiddled with the contrast a little to make the greenish and brownish swirls of algae stand out.


Average chlorophyll concentrations in milligrams per cubic meter of water for July 2015. The darkest green areas have the highest surface chlorophyll concentrations and the largest amounts of phytoplankton—including both toxic and harmless species. Vancouver Island is circled. (NOAA map based on Suomi NPP satellite data provided by NOAA View.)

The map above charts average chlorophyll concentrations during July in the northeast Pacific, from Baja to Alaska. Have a look at Vancouver Island, which I’ve circled. Some of the deepest greens, and therefore highest concentrations of chlorophyll, are found there.

But California, Oregon and Washington aren’t far behind!

The Blob

The abnormally warm water suspected as a culprit in the algae bloom doesn’t quite look blobbish right now — more like two giant patches:


Okay, in the map above of sea surface temperature anomalies for today (Aug. 6, 2015), the warm patch off the west coast of British Columbia, Washington and Oregon, does look blobby. The other one, off California and the Baja Peninsula, is more irregular. (There’s also quite a bit of toastiness in between the two.)

The warm water has shifted around a bit over the weeks, but it has been a persistent feature for a long time now. In fact, it began forming about two years ago. It also appears to have played a significant role in California’s record-setting drought.

You’ll also note that massive spear of warm water extending along the equator from South America across a good portion of the Pacific. That’s, El Niño — and it’s continuing to get stronger. It has, in fact, been called a “Godzilla El Niño…

So there you have it — exploding, toxic algae blooms, a Godzilla El Niño, and The Blob. If I weren’t such a weather weenie, I’d be bloody scared…

I might add that El Niño and the Blob together like this constitute something that I don’t believe has been seen before.  And so meteorologists and climatologists have been scratching their heads trying to figure out whether The Blob will interfere with a strong El Niño’s typical effects on weather. These include significantly boosted odds for copious winter precipitation in parts of California.

Will Godzilla eat the blob? What would that even mean? (And would Godzilla get sick from the toxic algae?!) We’ll have to wait another few months to learn the answers.

Source: Discover



El Nino 2014?

El Niño: Is 2014 the new 1997?

May 19, 2014:  Every ten days, the NASA/French Space Agency Jason-2 satellite maps all the world’s oceans, monitoring changes in sea surface height, a measure of heat in the upper layers of the water.   Because our planet is more than 70% ocean, this information is crucial to global forecasts of weather and climate.

Lately, Jason-2 has seen something brewing in the Pacific—and it looks a lot like 1997.

“A pattern of sea surface heights and temperatures has formed that reminds me of the way the Pacific looked in the spring of 1997,” says Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “That turned out to be the precursor of a big El Niño.”


A new ScienceCast video examines the evidence that an El Niño is developing in the Pacific.  Play it

“We can’t yet say for sure that an El Niño will develop in 2014, or how big it might be,” cautions Mike McPhaden of NOAA’s Pacific Environmental Research Laboratories in Seattle, “but the Jason-2 data support the El Niño Watch issued last month by NOAA.”

What Jason-2 has been seeing is a series of “Kelvin waves”—massive ripples in sea level that travel across the Pacific from Australia to South America.  Forecasters are paying close attention because these waves could be a herald of El Niño.

The two phenomena, Kelvin waves and El Niño, are linked by wind. Pacific trade winds blow from east to west, pushing sun-warmed surface waters toward Indonesia.  As a result, the sea level near Indonesia is normally 45 cm higher than it is near Ecuador.  Researchers call that area the “warm pool”—it is the largest reservoir of warm water on our planet.

Sometimes, however, trade winds falter for a few days or weeks, and some of that excess sea level   ripples back toward the Americas. “That’s a Kelvin wave,” says McPhaden. “It’s not unusual to see a couple every winter.”

El Niño happens when trade winds falter not just for days, but for many months. Then Kelvin waves    cross the Pacific like a caravan, raising sea level and leaving warmer equatorial waters in their wake.

On May 8th, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction forecasted a 65% chance of El Niño developing during the summer of 2014. More

“The El Niño of 1997/98 was a textbook example,” recalls Patzert. “At that time we were getting data from TOPEX/Poseidon, a predecessor of Jason-2.  Sea surface maps showed a whitish bump, indicating a sea level some 10 centimeters higher than usual, moving along the equator from Australia to South America.”

“The same pattern is repeating in 2014,” says McPhaden. “A series of Kelvin waves generated by localized west wind bursts in the western Pacific that began in mid-January 2014 are headed east. Excitement is building as a third weakening of the Pacific trade winds happened in mid-April.”

Ocean and atmospheric scientists at NOAA and NASA are carefully monitoring the Pacific trade winds. The tipping point for declaring a significant El Niño will be an even longer lasting, larger collapse in Pacific trade winds, possibly signaling a shift in weather all around our planet.

“It will become much clearer over the next two to three months whether these recent developments are the forerunner of a major El Niño—or any El Niño at all,” says McPhaden.


Storm Surges & El Nino

Stormy Future: El Niño Could Bring Bigger Storm Surges

OurAmazingPlanet Staff
Date: 01 August 2011 Time: 10:18 AM ET

delaware wetlands
A storm surge at Delaware wetlands.

Heads up, East Coast. El Niño-related weather could get even worse in the future, according to a new study.

The coastal communities, already threatened by rising sea levels due toclimate change, may also see more destructive storm surges from these higher waters in future El Niño years, a new study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says. A destructive storm surge is where storms cause water levels to rapidly increase by at least 1 foot (0.3 meters).

The study was prompted by an unusual number of destructive storm surges along the East Coast during the 2009-2010 El Niño-dominated winter.

to read more, go to:

El Nino Poses Possible Threat to East Coast

Strong El Niño could bring increased sea levels, storm surges to U.S. East Coast

New study examines how El Niño in cold months affected water levels over past 50 years

July 15, 2011

Coastal areas along the East Coast

A new NOAA study found coastal areas along the East Coast could be more vulnerable to storm surges and sea level rise in future El Nino years.

Coastal communities along the U.S. East Coast may be at risk to higher sea levels accompanied by more destructive storm surges in future El Niño years, according to a new study by NOAA. The study was prompted by an unusual number of destructive storm surges along the East Coast during the 2009-2010 El Niño winter.

The study, led by Bill Sweet, Ph.D. from NOAA’s Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, examined water levels and storm surge events during the ’cool season’ of October to April for the past five decades at four sites representative of much of the East Coast: Boston, Atlantic City, N.J., Norfolk, Va., and Charleston, S.C.

to read more, go to: