Category Archives: Earth Stuff

News of Earth Changes, climate shifts, weather anomalies, volcanoes, etc

Turning Air into Oil — A New Alchemy?

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Scientists turn fresh air into petrol: is breakthrough a milestone on the road to clean energy?

 264 12 907

By Steven Connor
Friday, 19 October 2012

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A small British company has produced the first “petrol from air” using a revolutionary technology that promises to solve the energy crisis as well as helping to curb global warming by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Air Fuel Synthesis in Stockton-on-Tees has produced five litres of petrol since August when it switched on a small refinery that manufactures gasoline from carbon dioxide and water vapour.

The company hopes that within two years it will build a larger, commercial-scale plant capable of producing a ton of petrol a day. It also plans to produce green aviation fuel to make airline travel more carbon-neutral.

Tim Fox, head of energy and the environment at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers in London, said: “It sounds too good to be true, but it is true. They are doing it and I’ve been up there myself and seen it. The innovation is that they have made it happen as a process. It’s a small pilot plant capturing air and extracting CO2 from it based on well known principles. It uses well-known and well-established components but what is exciting is that they have put the whole thing together and shown that it can work.”

Although the process is still in the early developmental stages and needs to take electricity from the national grid to work, the company believes it will eventually be possible to use power from renewable sources such as wind farms or tidal barrages.

“We’ve taken carbon dioxide from air and hydrogen from water and turned these elements into petrol,” said Peter Harrison, the company’s chief executive, who revealed the breakthrough at a conference at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers in London.

“There’s nobody else doing it in this country or indeed overseas as far as we know. It looks and smells like petrol but it’s a much cleaner and clearer product than petrol derived from fossil oil,” Mr Harrison told The Independent.

“We don’t have any of the additives and nasty bits found in conventional petrol, and yet our fuel can be used in existing engines,” he said.

“It means that people could go on to a garage forecourt and put our product into their car without having to install batteries or adapt the vehicle for fuel cells or having hydrogen tanks fitted. It means that the existing infrastructure for transport can be used,” Mr Harrison said.

Being able to capture carbon dioxide from the air, and effectively remove the principal industrial greenhouse gas resulting from the burning of fossil fuels such as oil and coal, has been the holy grail of the emerging green economy.

Using the extracted carbon dioxide to make petrol that can be stored, transported and used as fuel for existing engines takes the idea one step further. It could transform the environmental and economic landscape of Britain, Mr Harrison explained.

“We are converting renewable electricity into a more versatile, useable and storable form of energy, namely liquid transport fuels. We think that by the end of 2014, provided we can get the funding going, we can be producing petrol using renewable energy and doing it on a commercial basis,” he said.

“We ought to be aiming for a refinery-scale operation within the next 15 years. The issue is making sure the UK is in a good place to be able to set up and establish all the manufacturing processes that this technology requires. You have the potential to change the economics of a country if you can make your own fuel,” he said.

The initial plan is to produce petrol that can be blended with conventional fuel, which would suit the high-performance fuels needed in motor sports. The technology is also ideal for remote communities that have abundant sources of renewable electricity, such solar energy, wind turbines or wave energy, but little in the way of storing it, Mr Harrison said.

“We’re talking to a number of island communities around the world and other niche markets to help solve their energy problems.

“You’re in a market place where the only way is up for the price of fossil oil and at some point there will be a crossover where our fuel becomes cheaper,” he said.

Although the prototype system is designed to extract carbon dioxide from the air, this part of the process is still too inefficient to allow a commercial-scale operation.

The company can and has used carbon dioxide extracted from air to make petrol, but it is also using industrial sources of carbon dioxide until it is able to improve the performance of “carbon capture”.

Other companies are working on ways of improving the technology of carbon capture, which is considered far too costly to be commercially viable as it costs up to £400 for capturing one ton of carbon dioxide.

However, Professor Klaus Lackner of Columbia University in New York said that the high costs of any new technology always fall dramatically.

“I bought my first CD in the 1980s and it cost $20 but now you can make one for less than 10 cents. The cost of a light bulb has fallen 7,000-fold during the past century,” Professor Lackner said.

Read more: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/environment/scientists-turn-fresh-air-into-petrol-is-breakthrough-a-milestone-on-the-road-to-clean-energy-16226456.html?r=RSS&google_editors_picks=true#ixzz2AcOxkHRU

Dr. Jeff Masters on Hurricane Sandy

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Massive Hurricane Sandy building a huge and destructive storm surge
Published: 2:34 PM GMT on October 28, 2012

Massive and dangerous Hurricane Sandy has grown to record size as it barrels northeastwards along the North Carolina coast at 10 mph. At 8 am EDT, Sandy’s tropical storm-force winds extended northeastwards 520 miles from the center, and twelve-foot high seas covered a diameter of ocean 1,030 miles across. Since records of storm size began in 1988, no tropical storm or hurricane has been larger (though Hurricane Olga of 2001 had a larger 690 mile radius of tropical storm-force winds when it was a subtropical storm near Bermuda.) Sandy has put an colossal volume of ocean water in motion with its widespread and powerful winds, and the hurricane’s massive storm surge is already impacting the coast. A 2′ storm surge has been recorded at numerous locations this morning from Virginia to Connecticut, including a 3′ surge at Virginia’s Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel and Sewells Point at 9 am EDT. Huge, 10 – 15 foot-high battering waves on top of the storm surge have washed over Highway 12 connecting North Carolina’s Outer Banks to the mainland at South Nags Head this morning. The highway is now impassable, and has been closed. The coast guard station on Cape Hatteras, NC, recorded sustained winds of 50 mph, gusting to 61 mph, at 5:53 am EDT this morning. In Delaware, the coastal highway Route 1 between Dewey Beach and Bethany Beach has been closed due to high water. Even though Sandy is a minimal Category 1 hurricane, its storm surge is extremely dangerous, and if you are in a low-lying area that is asked to evacuate, I strongly recommend that you leave.


Figure 1. A fright to behold: morning satellite image of massive Hurricane Sandy.

Sandy’s death toll now at 65
Sandy was a brutal storm for the Caribbean, the storm’s death toll now stands at 65. The death toll is highest in Haiti, with 51 deaths. Prime Minister Laurent Lamothe told the Associated Press that “This is a disaster of major proportions. The whole south is under water.” Approximately 8 – 10″ of rain (200 – 250 mm) fell in the capital of Port-au-Prince. Eleven people were killed in Cuba, where 35,000 homes were damaged or destroyed. Sandy is also being blamed for 1 death in Jamaica, 1 in Puerto Rico, and 1 in the Bahamas.


Figure 2. A resident carries a metal sheet from a house after heavy rains damaged by Hurricane Sandy in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Thursday, Oct. 25, 2012. Sandy is being blamed for 51 deaths in Haiti. (AP Photo/Dieu Nalio Chery)


Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts from NASA’s TRMM satellite show that portions of Haiti received over 12.75″ (325 mm) of rain (pink colors) from Hurricane Sandy. The capital of Port-au-Prince received 8 – 10″ (200 – 250 mm.) Image credit: NASA.

Intensity and Track Forecast for Sandy
Sandy has a rather unusual structure, with the strongest winds on the southwest side of the center, but a larger area of tropical storm-force winds to the northeast of the center. Most of the storm’s heavy thunderstorm activity is on the storm’s west side, in a thick band several hundred miles removed from the center, giving Sandy more the appearance of a subtropical storm rather than a hurricane. Satellite loops show that the low-level center of Sandy is no longer exposed to view, and heavy thunderstorms are increasing in areal extent near the center, due to a reduction in wind shear from 35 – 40 knots last night to 25 – 30 knots this morning. Wind shear is expected to drop another 5 knots today, which may allow the storm to build an increased amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center and intensify by 5 – 10 mph over the next 24 hours. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters noted this morning that Sandy had a partial eyewall on the west through SE sides of the center, and the storm may be able to build a nearly complete eyewall by Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, though, Sandy will be moving over cool 25°C waters, which should slow down this intensification process. However, the trough of low pressure that will be pulling Sandy to the northwest towards landfall on Monday will strengthen the storm by injecting “baroclinic” energy–the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. Sandy should have sustained winds at hurricane force, 75 – 80 mph, at landfall. Sandy’s central pressure is expected to drop from its current 951 mb to 945 – 950 mb at landfall Monday night. A pressure this low is extremely rare; according to wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the lowest pressure ever measured anywhere in the U.S. north of Cape Hatteras, NC, is 946 mb (27.94″) measured at the Bellport Coast Guard Station on Long Island, NY on September 21, 1938 during the great “Long Island Express” hurricane. The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs are in agreement that Sandy will make landfall between 10 pm Monday night and 4 am Tuesday morning in New Jersey.


Figure 4. Predicted maximum storm surge from Hurricane Irene. There is a 10% chance that the storm surge could exceed the heights given here, so most regions will receive a surge lower than this forecast. The greatest surge is expected in the waters surrounding New York City, since the shape of the bays will act to funnel the water to higher levels.

Sandy’s storm surge a huge threat
Last night’s 9:30 pm EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy’s winds at a modest 2.6 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.7 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed between 1969 – 2005, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy is now forecast to bring a near-record storm surge of 6 – 11 feet to Northern New Jersey and Long Island Sound, including the New York City Harbor. While Sandy’s storm surge will be nowhere near as destructive as Katrina’s, the storm surge does have the potential to cause many billions of dollars in damage if it hits near high tide at 9 pm EDT on Monday. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month. This will add another 2 – 3″ to water levels. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the peak storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. Sandy’s storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13′ to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 – 12″ shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy’s storm surge is expected to be several feet higher than Irene’s. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening’s high tide at 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City’s subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 50% chance that Sandy’s storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

An excellent September 2012 article in the New York Times titled, “New York Is Lagging as Seas and Risks Rise, Critics Warn” quoted Dr. Klaus H. Jacob, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, on how lucky New York City got with Hurricane Irene. If the storm surge from Irene had been just one foot higher, “subway tunnels would have flooded, segments of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive and roads along the Hudson River would have turned into rivers, and sections of the commuter rail system would have been impassable or bereft of power,” he said, and the subway tunnels under the Harlem and East Rivers would have been unusable for nearly a month, or longer, at an economic loss of about $55 billion. Dr. Jacob is an adviser to the city on climate change, and an author of the 2011 state study that laid out the flooding prospects. “We’ve been extremely lucky,” he said. “I’m disappointed that the political process hasn’t recognized that we’re playing Russian roulette.”

Sandy’s winds
Sandy will bring sustained winds of tropical storm-force to a 1000-mile swath of coast on Monday and Tuesday. Winds of 55 – 75 mph with gusts over hurricane force will occur along a 500 mile-wide section of coast. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees, and the potential for several billion dollars in wind damage. A power outage computer model run by Johns Hopkins University predicts that 10 million people will lose power from the storm.

Sandy’s rains
Sandy’s heavy rains are going to cause major but probably not catastrophic river flooding. If we compare the predicted rainfall amounts for Sandy (Figure 5) with those from Hurricane Irene of 2011 (Figure 6), Sandy’s are expected to be about 30% less. Hurricane Irene caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. However, the region most heavily impacted by Irene’s heavy rains had very wet soils and very high river levels before Irene arrived, due to heavy rains that occurred in the weeks before the hurricane hit. That is not the case for Sandy; soil moisture is near average over most of the mid-Atlantic, and is in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland. One region of possible concern is the Susquehanna River Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is in the 70th percentile, and river levels are in the 76th – 90th percentile. This area is currently expected to receive 3 – 6 inches of rain (Figure 4), which is probably not enough to cause catastrophic flooding like occurred for Hurricane Irene. I expect that river flooding from Sandy will cause less than $1 billion in damage.


Figure 5. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Friday morning, November 2, 2012, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 6. Actual rainfall for 2011’s Hurricane Irene, which caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. Sandy’s rains are predicted to be about 30% less than Irene’s. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Sandy’s snows
You can add heavy snow to the list of weather frights coming for the Eastern U.S. from Sandy. A WInter Storm Watch is posted for much of southeastern West Virginia for Sunday night through Monday, when 2 – 6 inches of wet, heavy snow is expected to fall at elevations below 2000 feet. At higher elevation above 3,000 feet, 1 – 2 feet of snow is possible. With high wind gusts of 35 – 45 mph and many trees still in leaf, the affected area can expect plenty of tree damage and power outages. Lesser snows are expected in the mountains of Virginia, Tennessee, and North Carolina.

Sandy’s tornado threat is minimal
The severe thunderstorm and tornado threat from Sandy Sunday and Monday looks low, due to minimal instability.

Links for Sandy
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Corolla, NC webcam

Atlantic City beach cam

Statue of Liberty cam

An impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of Sandy today is at the CSU RAMMB website.

This impressive 1-min GOES loop beginning at dawn Saturday shows Sandy’s heavy thunderstorms fighting against high wind shear, and the tilt of the vortex to the northeast with height.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

3-D “fly-around: of the rain towers of Sandy

Hurricane Sandy info from NASA.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center’s Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.


Figure 7. Tide gauge in Kahului, Maui, Hawaii, showing the 2.5′ tsunami that hit at approximately 09 UTC Sunday, October 29, 2012. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Three-foot tsunami his Hawaii after big quake in Canada
A major magnitude 7.7 earthquake hit 25 miles (40 km) south of Sandspit, British Columbia last night at 8:04 pm PDT. The quake generated a tsunami that raced across the Pacific Ocean and struck Hawaii six hours later. The tsunami reached a height of 2.5 feet in Kahului, Maui, 1.2′ at Hilo, and 0.5′ in Honolulu. The earthquake was Canada’s third largest since 1900. The last stronger quake was a magnitude 7.9 that hit in 1958. The other stronger quake was a magnitude 8.1 that hit in 1949, with an epicenter very close to last night’s trembler.

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

7.7 Earthquake Below British Columbia

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Massive earthquake below British Columbia, Canada – All advisories have now been canceled (Western US and Canada + Hawaii coasts)

Last update: October 28, 2012 at 5:12 pm by By

Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 7,7
UTC Time :  2012-10-28 03:04:08 UTC
Local time at epicenter : 2012-10-27 20:04:08 UTC-07:00 at epicenter
Depth (Hypocenter) : 17.5 km
Geo-location(s) :

  1. 139km (86mi) S of Masset, Canada
  2. 199km (124mi) SSW of Prince Rupert, Canada
  3. 288km (179mi) SW of Terrace, Canada
  4. 551km (342mi) NW of Campbell River, Canada
  5. 636km (395mi) SSE of Juneau, Alaska

2012-10-28 17:00 UTC
– THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS ENDED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT 0358 AM HST.
– All the advisories have now been ended
– Luckily, there is NO report of damage from British Columbia

2012-10-28 13:31 UTC
– Tsunami advisory is still in effect in Hawaii. We do not think big changes will occur, but people should at least stay away from the shoreline for at least several hours and until all advisories are cleared (can take many more hours)

2012-10-28 12:05 UTC

THE TSUNAMI WARNING IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.
A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT 1254 AM HST.

…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS CANCELED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM GUALALA POINT CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80

MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/ TO THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER…

THE TSUNAMI THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR ALASKA/ BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON/ OREGON OR CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER… SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE NON-DAMAGING SEA LEVEL CHANGES. AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATIONS MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

2012-10-28 10:53 UTC
THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM GUALALA POINT  CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/ TO THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER…

2012-10-28 10:44 UTC
– The max. tsunami waves so far measured at Hawaii are 76 cm high at Kahului (Maui)  (still less than expected by the weather channel). These are the most readings so far :

The video below is a very interesting interview with a scientists from NOAA. He is giving a lot of info on the tsunami waves and their behaviour in Hawaii.

2012-10-28 10:27 UTC
CBC Canada reports that  Dennis Sinnott (Canadian Institute of Ocean Science) said that a 69-centimetre wave was recorded off Langara Island on the northeast tip of Haida Gwaii, formerly called the Queen Charlotte Islands. The islands are home to about 5,000 people, many of them members of the Haida aboriginal group.
Another 55-centimetre wave hit Winter Harbour on the northeast coast of Vancouver Island, while a 12-centimetre wave was recorded in Tofino, on Vancouver Island’s west coast.

2012-10-28 09:46 UTC
TSUNAMI ADVISORY STATUS IS CANCELLED FOR BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OREGON.
TSUNAMI ADVISORY STATUS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

2012-10-28 09:46 UTC
Tsunami waves have reached parts of Hawaii. The Tsunami warning remains in effect.
Here are the first readings :

Image courtesy NOAA

2012-10-28 08:51 UTC
– NO CHANGES IN THE CURRENT SITUATION

2012-10-28 08:26 UTC
– Tsunami warning remains in effect for Hawaii (expected arrival time 10:28 PM)

2012-10-28 07:54 UTC
THE ADVISORY IS CANCELLED FOR SE ALASKA AND CONTINUES FOR BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

2012-10-28 07:27 UTC
– The earthquake has been felt as far as Edmonton, Canada which is … 1700 km east of the epicenter
– Hawaii keeps his breath for eventual tsunami waves or currents
– A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD COASTAL AREAS.
THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS.
ALL SHORES ARE AT RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE.
THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN.
EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE  CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI.
DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER.
SIMULTANEOUS HIGH TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.

2012-10-28 06:57 UTC
– The WeatherChannel reports that parts of Hawaii may see waves heights as much as 7 feet. Waikiki coast has been asked to evacuate. If the weather channel is correct, this will be a serious current heading for Hawaii
– NOAA Hawaii Tsunami report nr 5  states that :
A TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII. THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS : 1028 PM HST SAT 27 OCT 2012

2012-10-28 06:57 UTC
– No change in advisory and warning areas in Alaska Tsunami Center report nr. 8 

THE ADVISORY REGIONS ARE KEPT THE SAME. NEW OBSERVATIONS ARE ADDED BELOW

…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON FROM GUALALA POINT
CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/ TO DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/…

…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TO CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/…

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO GUALALA
POINT CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/…

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE
OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/ TO THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER…

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA…

2012-10-28 06:22 UTC
– Tsunami warning downgraded to advisory for British Columbia and Alaska
Most important elements of Alaska Tsunami Center report nr. 7 :

THE WARNING IS DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY FOR SE ALASKA AND NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. MORE OBSERVATIONS ARE INCLUDED BELOW.

…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON FROM GUALALA POINT
CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/ TO DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/…

…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA…

…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS MODIFIED TO INCLUDE THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/…

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO GUALALA
POINT CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/…

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE
OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/ TO THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER…

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA…

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ADVISORY REGIONS LISTED IN THE HEADLINE. PEOPLE IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES.
– IF IN A TSUNAMI ADVISORY COASTAL AREA MOVE OUT OF THE WATER… OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

Tsunami gauge measurements at various stations :

2012-10-28 06:19 UTC
– Hawaii tsunami report nr. 4 states :
A TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.

EVALUATION

 A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.

 A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD COASTAL AREAS. THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
 TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS. ALL SHORES ARE AT RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE. THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN. EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI. DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER. SIMULTANEOUS HIGH TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.

 THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS 1028 PM HST SAT 27 OCT 2012

2012-10-28 06:10 UTC

– The earthquake occurred 2 hours ago and various tsunami warnings and advisories are still in effect for the greater earthquake and coastal areas.
– At Langara (northern point of Haida Gwaii (epicenter island), a tsunami surge has been measured of 44 cm)
– At Hawaii the wave is estimated to arrive at 10:28 PM local time
– For those among you interested to look at live webcams, we have found a live broadcasting webcam from Hawaii – Click here to watch it. A surge of less than 1 meter will be hard to see in the dark. Some stirring water (shaking boats) are a possibility. We hear the Tsunami warning sirens howling at the webcam. Great initiative from this webcam owner to do the live streaming !

2012-10-28 05:55 UTC – Tsunami warning and advisory overview
– Warning effective for British Columbia, Alaska and Hawaii
– Advisory (1 level less than warning) for some parts of Washington, Oregon and California (see below)
What to do : if you are living at coastal areas, move to higher ground

IMPORTANT UPDATE 2012-10-28 05:48 UTC

ALASKA Tsunami Center report nr. 6

THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON.

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
   AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF
   VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION
   ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/...

...THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS MODIFIED TO INCLUDE THE COASTAL
   AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON FROM GUALALA POINT
   CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/ TO
   DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/...

...THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
   AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH
   COLUMBIA BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND
   BRITISH COLUMBIA...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
   CALIFORNIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO GUALALA
   POINT CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
   OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE
   OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/ TO THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH
   COLUMBIA BORDER...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
   ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
   SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA...

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
 A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DAMAGE
 TO THE WARNING AND/OR ADVISORY REGIONS LISTED IN THE HEADLINE.
 PEOPLE IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO
 INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS
 ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES.
 - IF IN A TSUNAMI WARNING COASTAL AREA MOVE INLAND TO
   HIGHER GROUND.

 - IF IN A TSUNAMI ADVISORY COASTAL AREA MOVE OUT OF
   THE WATER... OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

2012-10-28 05:40 UTC
– What occurred today is a typical subduction earthquake. the stress accumulates from the eastward moving Pacific plate subducting below the North American plate generates this kind of very powerful earthquakes.

2012-10-28 05:32 UTC
Tsunami advisory (no warning) extended to the border area of  Washington state

The most relevant parts of the Alaska Tsunami Center report nr. 5 (continental USA and Canada)

THE WARNING ZONES REMAIN THE SAME IN THIS MESSAGE.
AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA-
SOUTH OF THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND.

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/...

...A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE
   COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
   CALIFORNIA - OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM THE
   CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA
   BORDER...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
   ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
   SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA...

2012-10-28 05:24 UTC
A TSUNAMI WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT 0709 PM HST.
THIS UPGRADE IS DUE TO THE SEA LEVEL READINGS RECEIVED AND THE RESULTING CHANGE IN THE HAWAII TSUNAMI FORECAST.

2012-10-28 05:22 UTC
– Haida Gwaii (former Queen Charlotte Islands and epicenter of the earthquake) reports to Canadian Broadcasting that some homes have been damaged

2012-10-28 05:19 UTC
– More aftershocks are being reported. They however are less than M5, which is a good sign.
– The occurrence of a similar or even bigger earthquake than the mainshock cannot be excluded but happens very rarely.
– Earthquake-report.com does thank our many Alaska and British Colombia readers who have shared their experience with our site. Earthquake reporting can be only complete in the case of a interaction with those who felt the shaking

2012-10-28 05:07 UTC
Alaska Tsunami center report nr. 5 – Tsunami alert is still in place 
THE WARNING ZONES REMAIN THE SAME IN THIS MESSAGE.
AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA-
SOUTH OF THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND.

2012-10-28 05:02 UTC
Some relevant tweets our Carlos Robles has intercepted
–  “We were just sitting down relaxing and all of a sudden — boom! I thought it was a major landslide,” said Martynuik. “The epicentre had to be right close to us because the power went out right away. The quake seemed to last forever.”
– Tsunami ….”apparently” Sandspit got a 8 ft rise .
– CBC LeishaGrebinski just spoke w/ Ted Renaud on Langara Isl. He said quake was strong, they just exp. a swell expect another one in 20 mins

2012-10-28 04:52 UTC
Report number 4 from the Alaska tsunami center :

THE TSUNAMI HAS BEEN RECORDED WITH SMALL AMPLITUDES IN SE ALASKA. FORECASTS INDICATE HEIGHTS IN S CENTRAL ALASKA BELOW 30CM. THE WARNING AREA REMAINS THE SAME. 

2012-10-28 04:50 UTC
– The tsunami evacuation seems to work well at the moment. A lot of people (ut limited in number) have been called to evacuate for higher ground and did so in the meanwhile
– The epicenter of the 3 M5+ aftershocks is heading more to the coast. No aftershock of M6 or more so far

2012-10-28 04:46 UTC
– We repeat that the Tsunami alert is only called for portions of the British Columbia and Alaska coast. Hawaii and the greater Pacific basin have NO alert issued.
– Pacofi and Lockeport, Canada are the locations which may get tsunami waves of respectively 1.7 and 1.5 meter. Other locations are expected to get a max. of 0.3 m. (source info + graphic below : GDACS)

2012-10-28 04:40 UTC
As soon as the Tsunami alert is canceled, we will bring the news to our readers.
The tsunami alert will only affect a limited number of people. Tsunami level calculations are extremely difficult as the wave height can be different for every portion of the coast depending on the coastal floor.

2012-10-28 04:32 UTC
Some press reports are stating that the quake was not felt in Vancouver, which does not correspond with the reports we have received from our readers (see below).

2012-10-28 04:24 UTC
Based on the reports below, the shaking lasted 30 seconds to a minute, a normal shaking time for such a huge earthquake

2012-10-28 04:18 UTC
The Alaska tsunami center has just issued a third report which keeps the tsunami warning as it was mentioned before. These are the most important elements of this report :

A SMALL TSUNAMI HAS BEEN RECORDED ON A DEEP OCEAN PRESSURE SENSOR. THE WARNING REGION REMAINS THE SAME IN THIS BULLETIN.

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
   AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF
   VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION
   ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
   CALIFORNIA - OREGON - WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM
   THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER
   ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
   ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
   SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA...

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
 PEOPLE IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO
 INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS
 ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES.
 - IF IN A TSUNAMI WARNING COASTAL AREA MOVE INLAND TO HIGHER
   GROUND.

2012-10-28 04:13 UTC
– Except for the Tsunami danger, the dangerous shaking impact will be limited to approx. 2000 people who will have sustained a MMI VII, very strong shaking experience.
– 18000 people will have felt a strong MMI VI shaking and another 186000 people a moderate shaking.
– Please find the experiences of people below this page

Shaking intensities (image courtesy USGS)

2012-10-28 04:00 UTC
– About 2000 people are living within 100 km from the epicenter
– A considerable number of strong aftershocks have been striking the epicenter area

2012-10-28 03:53 UTC
– People living in coastal areas along British Colombia and Alaska should better be going for higher ground. Tsunami calculations are far from perfect and a auto-safety move for higher ground is always preferable.
– The area is merely unpopulated and the closest populated settlements are quite far from the epicenter.
– Haida Gwaii is a National Park, but should be almost without visitors at this time of the year.

2012-10-28 03:45 UTC
– Another agency, GDACS who is using data from USGS reports that : It is likely that a tsunami was generated. The maximum tsunami wave height near the coast of Lockeport will be 1.66m.

GDACS Tsunami expectation – max. tsunami height 1.66 m

2012-10-28 03:44 UTC
– THE MAGNITUDE IS UPDATED TO 7.7. THE WARNING ZONE REMAINS THE SAME.

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1 NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK 807 PM PDT SAT OCT 27 2012 …A TSUNAMI WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/… …THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA – OREGON – WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA… …THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA… RECOMMENDED ACTIONS PEOPLE IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES. – IF IN A TSUNAMI WARNING COASTAL AREA MOVE INLAND TO HIGHER GROUND. PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS MAGNITUDE – 7.1 TIME – 1904 AKDT OCT 27 2012 2004 PDT OCT 27 2012 0304 UTC OCT 28 2012 LOCATION – 52.9 NORTH 131.9 WEST 25 MILES/40 KM S OF SANDSPIT BRITISH COLUMBIA 390 MILES/628 KM SE OF JUNEAU ALASKA DEPTH – 12 MILES/19 KM TSUNAMI WARNINGS MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI WITH SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IS IMMINENT… EXPECTED OR OCURRING. WARNINGS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING ACCOMPANIED BY POWERFUL CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AND MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL. PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/ BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/10/28/massive-earthquake-with-tsunami-warning-below-the-queen-charlotte-islands-british-columbia-canada/

The L’Aquila Earthquake Trial Results

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The Verdict of the l’Aquila Earthquake Trial Sends the Wrong Message

Rubble from a collapse house covered a car after the 2009 l’Aquila earthquake in Italy. Image: Alessandro Giangiulio / Flickr.

By this time, many of you have seen the verdict for the people on trial over the 2009 l’Aquila earthquake. Judge Marco Billi sentenced the seven scientists, engineers and officials to 6 years in prison – 2 years more than the prosecution suggested – over the manslaughter charges stemming from the earthquake that killed over 300 people. The trial has been a flashpoint for geoscientists as many have seen it as a trial over the idea that geologists should be able to “predict” earthquakes. This is somewhat misleading as the prosecution was actually claiming the seven on trial were accused of “having carried out a superficial analysis of seismic risk and of having provided false reassurances to the public.” This doesn’t mean they got a “prediction” wrong, but rather that they didn’t fully understand the risk for l’Aquila, thus put people’s lives in danger. However, this whole trial, in its misguided attempt to find someone to blame for a blameless geologic event, sends the wrong message about how to deal with hazard assessment and mitigation.

 

Now, I’m not going to rehash the whole trial – you can see some excellent summaries in Nature News and The New York Times. However, let’s get this straight. Say what you will about whether the seven adequately did their job in mitigating against the disaster, but convicting them of manslaughter? That is what makes this case so egregious. If you look up a definition of manslaughter (and it varies from country to country), this likely falls under the criminally negligent variety, where “a defendant intentionally puts himself in a position where he will be unaware of facts which would render him liable.” This suggests that the seven on trial caused the 308 deaths from the l’Aquila earthquake by ignoring the facts presented. People who survived the earthquake and the prosecution claim that the scientists should have known a large earthquake was coming because there had been many small earthquakes that preceded it (so-called “foreshocks“, which have not been proven to be predictive of a larger earthquake). However, the scientists and officials instead said that the earthquakes were releasing energy on local faults, reducing the threat of an earthquake. Chris Rowan does a great job explaining why both of these positions are wrong. It all boils down to the idea of what could actually be deduced from the facts in hand. Should government officials and scientists have proclaimed that an earthquake would occur in days when no data existed that confirmed this? (And no, saying that the earthquake did occur is not evidence – that is hindsight.)

So, we’re back in the same quandry we often find ourselves when it comes to geologic hazard mitigation – prediction versus probability. Indeed, the city of l’Aquila does lie in a region of high seismic hazard for Italy. This was not a fact that was hidden from the public by government officials – in fact, most people who live in Italy should know that earthquakes are not uncommon across the country. However, even with swarms of small earthquakes, there is no way that any seismologist could say that yes, a large earthquake will happen within a week*. That is the realm of prediction. Alternatively, they should not rule out the possibility that a large earthquake could occur in a region of high seismic hazard. So, the answer is, yes, at some point, a large earthquake will occur here. It isn’t satisfying, but it is what the data will bear. However, that isn’t what people want to hear. They want to know “should I leave my house tomorrow? Tuesday?” Without such an imposed deadline, many times the perceived threat just fades into the background of everyday life, like car accidents or fires.

Why did this trial occur if the science really says there wasn’t anything that could be done? I think it is clearly so that people can have someone to blame. The 7 on trial did say something that can be perceived as reassuring mere days before the tragedy, so clearly, they are the reason those 308 people died. Have a big, flashy show trial and charge them with something frightful. Now, that’ll get people’s attention and solve this problem … forever! Of course it won’t – in fact, it might make proper hazard assessment and discussion even more difficult in Italy because people will be afraid that if they get it wrong, they too will go to prison. It might lead to more “false positives” that erode the public’s confidence in the ability to judge the hazard risk in areas around the country. You’ve create a situation where hazard geoscientists are caught between a literal rock and a hard place – don’t emphasize enough and something happens, you go to prison; overemphasize and cause panic, you lose the public’s trust. I hope this doesn’t lead to a culture of “geologic malpractice”, where any discussion of hazards and mitigation are scrutinized after the fact so that lawyers can go after whomever they want to place the blame. Even more startling, there are threats that the Italian government will cut the positions of many scientists in the INGV who are monitoring active volcanoes and other hazards, leaving the country even more vulnerable. It is a perfect recipe for an epic tragedy to occur.

If you do live in a region of high geologic hazard, then you should be prepared for such eventualities, and if you can’t make the preparations, then you should be making sure your government does. By that I mean infrastructure improvements, emergency planning and response, evacuation plans – all the things that you, personally, can’t tackle. You can prepare your home and family as much as you can, but there has to be buy-in across all levels. However, when it comes down to it, a lot of the responsibility falls on the public to be better educated about the hazards they face. Some of that needs to come from the officials and scientists in charge – better outreach, clearer statements, more research – but some of this needs to come from the grassroots where children learn science and hazards. I do know one thing: Witch hunts to find someone to blame for a tragedy have never brought anyone back.

* It is sad that this case also involves the charlatans who claim to be able to “predict” earthquakes. If Giampaolo Giuliani hadn’t bandied about his unsubstantiated claims about radon being used to predict the earthquake – which caused undue panic and uncertainty that the government tried to quell – would these seven be potentially headed to jail?

from:   http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/10/the-verdict-of-the-laquila-earthquake-trial-sends-the-wrong-message/#more-134908

Costa Rica Earthquake

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Very strong earthquake in Costa Rica

Last update: October 24, 2012 at 4:39 pm by By

Very strong earthquake in Costa Rica
A magnitude 6.6 earthquake at a depth of 35km (USGS) struck the same area where the M7.6 hit a month ago. The values given by USGS differs a lot from the ones that gives Ovsicori, the geological survey from Costa Rica, saying it was a magnitude 5.8 at a depth of 6km. We’ll wait to see if they change their values.
There are reports of fallen objects and broken windows in the zone of La Cruz, Guanacaste and Sámara but, luckily, there’s no heavy damage or injured people.
Update- USGS lowered the magnitude from 6.6 to 6.5 but at a more dangerous depth of 20km.
Update- Some areas in San Ramon in Alajuela and Guanacaste were without electricity.

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/10/23/major-earthquakes-list-october-24-2012/

Destructive POtential of Hurricane Sandy

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Hurricane Sandy pounding Jamaica, may hit U.S. this weekend; TS Tony forms
Published: 2:21 PM GMT on October 24, 2012

Hurricane warnings are flying for Jamaica and Eastern Cuba, as an intensifying Hurricane Sandy plows north-northeast at 13 mph towards landfall. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm, and measured surface winds of hurricane strength–75 to 80 mph–in the storm’s northeast quadrant near 9:25 am EDT. Sandy’s pressure at the time of the 9:28 am center fix was 973 mb, and the temperature in the eye had warmed 2°C since the 7:48 am fix, a sign of strengthening. Intermittent rain squalls from Sandy have been affecting Jamaica since Monday night, and Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 2.12″ of rain from Sandy as of 9 am EDT. Winds in Jamaica have been below 20 mph as of 10 am EDT, but will start to rise quickly in the next few hours. The Hurricane Hunters found a large 55 mile-diameter eye that was open to the WNW this morning, and it is likely that Kingston will receive high winds of 55 – 65 mph from the western eyewall, which will cause considerable damage to Jamaica’s capital. The eastern tip of Jamaica will likely see the eye pass overhead, and will receive the strongest winds. The eye is beginning to appear on visible satellite loops, and Sandy is showing an increasing degree of organization as it closes in on Jamaica. Sandy is the tenth hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season, which is now tied for eighth place for most hurricanes in a year since record keeping began in 1851.


Figure 1. Morning microwave satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy taken at 8:45 am EDT. The large 55-mile diameter eye was just south of Jamaica. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Near-term forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the moderate range and ocean temperatures will be a warm 28°C through Thursday morning, which will favor intensification. However, Sandy doesn’t have much time left over water before it encounters the high mountains of Jamaica this afternoon, which should interrupt the intensification process. The strongest Sandy is likely to be at landfall in Jamaica is a 90 mph Category 1 hurricanes. After encountering Jamaica, Sandy won’t have time to re-organize much before making landfall in Eastern Cuba near 10 pm EDT tonight, and the strongest the storm is likely to be then is a 90 mph Category 1. Passage over the rugged terrain of Cuba should weaken Sandy’s winds by 20 – 30 mph, and it will be difficult for the storm to regain all of that lost strength in the face of the high wind shear of 20 – 30 knots it will encounter Thursday and Friday. I expect that Sandy will be a 60 – 70 mph tropical storm as it traverses the Bahamas.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy taken at 11:45 am EDT Tuesday, October 23, 2012. At the time, Sandy had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic and New England
On Friday, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast and trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic. The Central Atlantic trough may be strong enough to pull Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the official NHC forecast, and the 06Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, 00Z Canadian, and 06Z HWRF models (00Z is 8 pm EDT, and 06Z is 2 am EDT.) However, an alternative solution, shown by the 00Z ECMWF, 06Z GFDL, and 06Z NOGAPS models, is for Sandy to get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 – 70 mph. Such a storm would likely cause massive power outages and over a billion dollars in damage, as trees still in leaf take out power grids, and heavy rains and coastal storm surges create damaging flooding. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. A similar meteorological situation occurred in October 1991, when Hurricane Grace became absorbed by a Nor’easter, becoming the so-called “Perfect Storm” that killed 13 people and did over $200 million in damage in the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The Wednesday morning 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFS model was done 20 times at lower resolution with slightly varying initial conditions of temperature, pressure, and moisture to generate an ensemble of forecast tracks for Sandy (pink lines). These forecasts show substantial uncertainty in Sandy’s path after Friday, with a minority of the forecasts taking Sandy to the northeast, out to sea, and the majority now predicting a landfall in the Northeast or mid-Atlantic states of the U.S. The white line shows the official GFS forecast, run at higher resolution.

When might Sandy arrive in the mid-Atlantic and New England?
The models vary significantly in their predictions of when Sandy might arrive along the U.S. coast. The 06Z NOGAPS model predicts Sandy’s heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Saturday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF model predicts that Sandy’s rains won’t affect North Carolina until Sunday, with the storm making landfall in New Jersey on Monday night. The GFDL model is in-between these extremes, taking Sandy ashore in Delaware on Monday morning. The trough of low pressure that Sandy will be interacting with just moved ashore over the Western U.S. this morning, and got sampled by the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of land-based balloon-borne radiosondes for the first time. One of the reasons the models have been in such poor agreement on the long-term fate of Sandy is that the strength of this trough has not been very well known, since it has been over the ocean where we have limited data. Now that the trough is over land, it will be better sampled, and the next set of 12Z model runs, due out this afternoon between 2 pm – 4pm EDT, will hopefully begin to converge on a common solution. I’ll have an update this afternoon once the 12Z model runs are in.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Tony.

Tropical Storm Tony forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Storm Tony formed Tuesday night in the middle Atlantic, becoming the nineteenth named storm of this very busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Tony has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, but is battling dry air , wind shear, and ocean temperatures that have fallen below 26°C. Tony will not threaten any land areas, and will likely be dead by Thursday night.

Tony’s place in history
Tony is the Nineteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1887, 1995, 2010, and 2011 for third busiest Atlantic season since the HURDAT historical data base began in 1851. With five more weeks left before the November 30 end of hurricane season, 2012 is likely to move into second place for most named storms before the year is out, as all six prior Atlantic hurricane seasons with nineteen or more named storms have had at least one named storm form after October 24. Here, then, is a list of the seven busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
2012 (19 named storms)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)

It’s pretty remarkable that we’ve now had three straight years with nineteen named storms in the Atlantic. But how many of these storms might not have been counted in the pre-satellite era (before 1960)? Here’s a list of weak and short-lived storms from 2010 – 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era:

2012:
Tropical Storm Joyce
Tropical Storm Oscar
Tropical Storm Tony

2011:
Tropical Storm Jose
Tropical Storm Franklin

2010:
Tropical Storm Gaston

Even if we correct for the possible over-count of approximately two named storms per year during the 2010, 2011, and 2012 hurricane seasons, compared to the pre-satellite era, there is nothing in the HURDAT data base that compares to the type of activity we’ve seen the past three years. One likely contributor to the unusual string of active years is the fact hurricane season has gotten longer, perhaps due to warming ocean temperatures. I discussed in a 2008 blog post that Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, “Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?” He concluded that yes, there is a “apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high”.

Jeff Mastersfrom:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Dr. Jeff Masters on North Atlantic Storms

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99L a heavy rainfall threat for Jamaica, Haiti, and Eastern Cuba
Published: 2:35 PM GMT on October 21, 2012

A tropical wave embedded in a large trough of low pressure (Invest 99L) covers a large portion of the Central Caribbean between Hispaniola and the northern coast of South America. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous rainfall threat for Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba. The disturbance is headed west at less than 5 mph, is over very warm waters of 29°C, and is in a moist environment. 99L has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that have a good degree of spin. These thunderstorms are beginning to organize into spiral bands, as seen on visible satellite loops. However, the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity is about the same as yesterday, and there are no signs of a surface circulation. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 99L this afternoon, but I expect this flight will be rescheduled for later.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is a low 5 – 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 – 20 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow for some steady development of 99L, and there has been a good deal of model support for 99L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday. Steering currents favor a continued slow westward movement for 99L through Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure to the north of 99L is expected to turn the storm to the north or north-northeast, which should put 99L in the vicinity of Jamaica on Wednesday and Eastern Cuba on Thursday. By Friday, 99L should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling 99L to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a narrow ridge of high pressure has the potential to build in over 99L late this week and force the storm west-northwest, with a potential threat to the western Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by next weekend. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 99L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday morning. 99L will be capable of bringing heavy rains of 5 – 10 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 15 inches in mountainous areas, to Jamaica and Haiti, Monday through Wednesday. Heavy rains will begin on Tuesday in Eastern Cuba, and spread northwards into the Central and Eastern Bahamas by Wednesday.

Invest 90L in the middle Atlantic
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) about 830 miles east-northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph. The disturbance has a small amount of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and has gotten tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system. This upper-level low is providing 90L the spin it needs to become a tropical cyclone, but is also pumping cool, dry air into the disturbance, which will keep any development slow over the next few days. Wind shear is a moderate 10 – 20 knots, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range until Tuesday. This may allow for some slow development of 90L before it encounters high wind shear of 20 – 30 knots on Tuesday night through Thursday. None of the reliable computer models develop 90L into a tropical cyclone, and it’s unlikely that 90L will affect any land areas. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday morning.

The next name on the list of Atlantic tropical storms for 2012 is Sandy.

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

California Earthquake 10/20

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Strong shallow earthquake in Central California (near King City and Greenfield)

Last update: October 21, 2012 at 3:48 pm by By

Earthquake overview : 5 minutes to midnight a strong shallow earthquake struck at close distance from King City, California. The earthquake was felt in a wide area.

Update 15:46 UTC : So far the area has been hit  by 5 aftershoks ranging from M2.5 to M3.5

Update 15:30 UTC : Until now, good news, as we have heard nothing about damages or injuries.

Update :  – The population in this region resides in structures that are highly resistant to earthquake shaking, though some vulnerable structures exist.
– Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction that might have contributed to losses

Update : The people living in King City and Greenfield are expected to have felt a moderate shaking or MMI V
29000 people will have felt a moderate shaking
194000 people a light MMI IV shaking
1.73 million people a weak to very weak shaking

Update : There are NO reports of damage

Update : The epicenter has been set at 26 km from King City, the closest significant community. The area is mainly a wilderness area.

Update : Epicenter below a wilderness area near State route 198. Closest community King City (based on preliminary data)
The earthquake occurred at 11:55 local time.

Shaking map courtesy USGS

A rather strong earthquake just occurred 60 km east of Monterey, California
Closest cities Soledad and Coalinga. In a broader view in between Monterey and Fresno, California
The preliminary Magnitude of M5.5 has been weakened to M5.1. Normally a M5.3 in California at a depth of 9.4 km may only lead to minor damage like fallen objects, cracks in walls, etc.
This is the strongest earthquake in many months in this part of California.

Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : M5.3
UTC Time : 2012-10-21 06:55:09 UTC
Local time at epicenter : 2012-10-20 23:55:09 UTC-07:00 at epicenter
Depth (Hypocenter) : 9.4 km
Geo-location(s) :
26km (16mi) ENE of King City, California
34km (21mi) E of Greenfield, California
48km (30mi) WNW of Coalinga, California

from:   http://earthquake-report.com/2012/10/21/strong-shallow-earthquake-in-central-california-near-king-city-and-greenfield/

Background of Maine Earthquake

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The Facts Behind the Maine Earthquake

Douglas Main, OurAmazingPlanet Staff Writer
Date: 17 October 2012
A USGS map showing, in blue, where people reported feeling the Maine earthquake (on Oct. 16, 2012).
A USGS map showing, in blue, where people reported feeling the Maine earthquake (on Oct. 16, 2012).
CREDIT: USGS

How unusual was the magnitude-4.0 earthquake that struck southern Maine yesterday (Oct. 16)?

U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist Julie Dutton said it was larger than most but not too out of the ordinary for New England, where one or two minor earthquakes can be felt somewhere every year.

It’s unclear what exactly caused the quake, Dutton told OurAmazingPlanet. “To pinpoint which fault it was — we don’t have that information and we may never have that information,” she said. The area lacks the extensive network of seismometers present in more tectonically active areas. There are many faults in the area, and the fault that was active yesterday was probably small and may never be active again, Dutton said.

The East Coast is riddled with old faults, buried miles deep in the ancient crust of the North American plate, the tectonic plate that underlies the United States and Canada. But most of these fissures haven’t been active in a long time, and very few of them are well-studied or understood.

Stress naturally builds up within tectonic plates and is periodically released in earthquakes like this one, Dutton said.

As in other East Coast quakes, the vibrations Tuesday could be felt over a wide area – as far south as Long Island, N.Y., and as far north as southeastern Ontario, she said.

In North America, feeling shaking over such a larger area is unique to the East Coast. The crust of the eastern part of continent isn’t as fractured as elsewhere, which allows vibrations to travel long distances. That explains how last year’s 5.8-magnitude earthquake, centered in Virginia Aug. 23, was felt by nearly a third of the United States.

Last night’s temblor came from a rupture 4 miles (6 km) underground and struck at 7:12 p.m. local time (23:12 UTC), the USGS reported. The epicenter was about 21 miles west of Portland, Maine.

The earthquake shook houses in Boston and Connecticut, but it apparently did not cause any injuries or damage, according to news reports.  “A magnitude-4 can knock stuff off shelves and that kind of thing, but isn’t likely to cause major structural damage,” Dutton said.

The last earthquake to cause moderate damage in New England was a magnitude-5.6 temblor in New Hampshire in 1940, she said. The largest earthquake in recorded history in New England struck New Hampshire in 1638 and had an estimated magnitude of 6.5, according to the USGS.

Many parts of the country, including California and much of the Southeast, will be holding an earthquake drill tomorrow morning as part of the Great American Shakeout.

from:    http://www.livescience.com/24058-maine-earthquake-facts.html

Russia To Quit Kyoto Protools?

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Russia hints plans to quit Kyoto Protocol October 18, 2012 Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev Enlarge Russia on Thursday hinted that it may refuse to sign up to a new round of targeted carbon cuts that could see the Kyoto environmental protection treaty extended beyond its end of 2012 expiry date. “One has to admit that we never got any real commercial gain from the Kyoto Protocol,” news agencies quoted Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, pictured on October 12, as telling a government meeting. Russia on Thursday hinted that it may refuse to sign up to a new round of targeted carbon cuts that could see the Kyoto environmental protection treaty extended beyond its end of 2012 expiry date.
“One has to admit that we never got any real commercial gain from the Kyoto Protocol,” news agencies quoted Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev as telling a government meeting. “That does not mean that we have to try and drag it (the treaty) out any further,” Medvedev added. European diplomats at the May G8 summit in France said that Russia along with Japan and Canada had confirmed plans not to join the second round of carbon cuts. Russia ratified the treaty in 2004. It has since argued that its terms harm developing nations. Medvedev noted that he had said on repeated occasions in the past that “if the world community fails to agree on Kyoto, we would wave it goodbye.” He said he was thinking of extending the treaty’s terms with EU nations alone. “But considering our uneasy relations with the European Union, I am not sure how likely this scenario will be,” he said. A range of EU nations are probing Russian energy natural gas giant Gazprom for price-fixing and other unfair practices under its new Energy Charter Treaty. Medvedev did not explain his reasoning beyond the mention of Russia’s failure to tap into the profits it could have earned had it sold other nations unused carbon emission credits from its domestic producers. (c) 2012 AFP

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2012-10-russia-hints-kyoto-protocol.html#jCp