Latest El Hierro Report

El Hierro Volcano activity report

Last update: July 5, 2014 at 1:41 pm by By

This is the most recent El Hierro Volcano eruption report

2014-07-05 13:34 UTC
Its about time to report the earthquakes of the last couple of weeks (Sorry Susanna). Here is the list of the preceding weeks.

Screen Shot 2014-07-05 at 15.29.15 Screen Shot 2014-07-05 at 15.29.32

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/09/25/el-hierro-canary-islands-spain-volcanic-risk-alert-increased-to-yellow/

Mt. Fuji Condition ‘Critical’?

Is Mount Fuji about to ERUPT? Volcano said to be in ‘critical’ condition after devastating 2011 Tohoku earthquake

  • French and Japanese scientists say Mount Fuji is at higher risk of eruption
  • Pressure beneath the volcano was increased by the 2011 earthquake
  • The researchers used an array of 800 seismic sensors to make findings
  • And they found it mimics conditions from last eruption of Fuji in 1707
  • While an eruption is not imminent the ‘risk is clearly higher’ they say

By Jonathan O’Callaghan

In 2011 Japan was rocked by a magnitude 9 earthquake, the most powerful in the country’s recorded history, which together with a tsunami killed more than 15,000 people and caused upwards of £20.2 billion ($34.6 billion) in damage.

But it seems the effects of the earthquake are not over yet, as the huge tremor may have disrupted Mount Fuji and placed it in a critical condition.

The result could be an eruption that mimics the last in 1707, which bathed vast swathes of Japan in ash and caused untold damage, at a time when the country was much less populated.

French and Japanese scientists say that Mount Fuji is at higher risk of eruption. Its last major eruption was in 1707, at a time when the country was much less populated. In the modern day, just 60 miles (100 kilometres) south west of Tokyo (pictured), an eruption could be catastrophic

French and Japanese scientists say that Mount Fuji is at higher risk of eruption. Its last major eruption was in 1707, at a time when the country was much less populated. In the modern day, just 60 miles (100 kilometres) south west of Tokyo (pictured), an eruption could be catastrophic

The research was carried out by scientists at the Institute of Earth Sciences in Grenoble, France and the Institute of Global Physics in Paris, working in collaboration with Japanese scientists.

ALL ABOUT MOUNT FUJI

At an elevation of 3,776 metres (12,388 feet), Mount Fuji is the highest mountain in Japan.

It is an active stratovolcano found on Honshu island that last erupted in December 1707.

Known as the Hoei eruption, this is thought to have expelled a billion cubic metres of ash and debris.

Mount Fuji lies 60 miles (100 kilometres) south west of Tokyo, which in 1707 was called Edo.

On 22 June 2014 Mount Fuji was added to the World Heritage List as a Cultural Site, one of Japan’s ‘Three Holy Mountains’.

For the first time they observed the response of Japanese volcanoes to seismic waves produced by the Tohoko earthquake of 2011.

Their conclusions, published in Science, reveal how earthquakes can impact volcanoes and should help to assess the risk of massive volcanic eruptions worldwide.

‘Our work does not say that the volcano will start erupting, but it does show that it’s in a critical state,’ Dr Florent Brenguier, lead author of the publication, told The Guardian.

After the giant Tohoku-oki earthquake of 2011, the researchers analysed over 70 terabytes of seismic data from the network.

For the first time, they showed that the regions where the perturbations of the Earth’s crust were the greatest were not those where the shocks were the strongest.

They were in fact localised under volcanic regions, especially under Mount Fuji.

The reason for this is likely due to fluids trapped under the volcano such as boiling water and liquid magma.

‘Essentially the idea is that before this study we had very few methods to know the state of pressure of the volcano at depth,’ Dr Brenguier tells MailOnline.

‘With this new method, we are able to get insights on how the interior of the volcano, the part between the magma chamber and the surface, is affected.

‘We think that these are important in the preparation of eruption.’

The new research shows how volcanoes can be affected, or induce, earthquakes. Previous research suggests Mount Fuji, which is found on Honshu Island, may be sitting on a active fault 19 miles (30 kilometres) wide that could be capable of causing magnitude 7 earthquakes, possibly enough to cause an eruption

The new research shows how volcanoes can be affected, or induce, earthquakes. Previous research suggests Mount Fuji, which is found on Honshu Island, may be sitting on a active fault 19 miles (30 kilometres) wide that could be capable of causing magnitude 7 earthquakes, possibly enough to cause an eruption

 

The crustal seismic velocity drop induced by the Tohoku earthquake highlights a large anomaly below Mt Fuji volcano, as seen here in this 3D rendering released by the researchers

The crustal seismic velocity drop induced by the Tohoku earthquake highlights a large anomaly below Mt Fuji volcano, as seen here in this 3D rendering released by the researchers

 

The researchers found a high anomaly beneath the volcano, despite it being 310 miles (500 kilometres) from the epicentre of the 2011 earthquake, suggesting pressure was building.

However, Dr Brenguier adds: ‘It is not possible within our results to know when an eruption will occur or what size it will be.

‘We were just able to map the fact there is an anomaly in the partly pressurised region, so the volcanic risk in that region is higher.’

‘I can’t tell about future eruptions, but what I can say is we are expecting a new earthquake rather close to Mount Fuji.

‘Within 100 kilometres a large earthquake is expected.

‘If there were this large earthquake close, again the risk would be very high of having an eruption.’

In 2011 Japan was rocked by a magnitude 9 earthquake named Tohoko, the most powerful in the country's recorded history, which together with a tsunami killed more than 15,000 people and caused upwards of £20.2 billion ($34.6 billion) in damage

In 2011 Japan was rocked by a magnitude 9 earthquake named Tohoko, the most powerful in the country’s recorded history, which together with a tsunami killed more than 15,000 people and caused upwards of £20.2 billion ($34.6 billion) in damage

 

The last time Mount Fuji erupted was on 16 December 1707, and that eruption was preceded by the violent 8.7-magnitude Hoei earthquake 49 days before. It spread ash of varying levels across east Japan (shown). The researchers say no eruption is imminent at the moment, however

The last time Mount Fuji erupted was on 16 December 1707, and that eruption was preceded by the violent 8.7-magnitude Hoei earthquake 49 days before. It spread ash of varying levels across east Japan (shown). The researchers say no eruption is imminent at the moment, however

The findings were made using 800 seismic sensors and recording fluctuations underground that can map geological disturbances.

The new method thus enabled the scientists to observe the anomalies caused by the perturbations from the earthquake in volcanic regions under pressure.

Mount Fuji, which exhibits the greatest anomaly, is probably under great pressure, although no eruption has yet followed the Tohoku earthquake.

The last time Mount Fuji erupted was on 16 December 1707, and that eruption was preceded by the violent 8.7-magnitude Hoei earthquake 49 days before.

With regards to the 2011 earthquake on 11 March, it was followed by a 6.4 magnitude quake four days later. 

This confirmed the criticial state of Mounti Fuji to the researchers.

They add, however, that there is no need for evacuation or any other drastic measures in Japan yet, although caution must be taken.

‘All we can say is that Mount Fuji is now in a state of pressure, which means it displays a high potential for eruption,’ Dr Brenguier added to the Guardian.

‘The risk is clearly higher.’

The researchers showed for the first time that the regions where the perturbations of the Earth's crust were the greatest after the 2011 earthquake were not those where the shocks were the strongest, but under volcanic regions, especially under Mount Fuji (pictured from space)

The researchers showed for the first time that the regions where the perturbations of the Earth’s crust were the greatest after the 2011 earthquake were not those where the shocks were the strongest, but under volcanic regions, especially under Mount Fuji (pictured from space)

 

The ‘critical’ nature of the volcano comes from the state of the magma stored 3.1 miles (five kilometres) beneath the surface in the rock mass.

‘This part of the crust is kind of critical in a sense that perturbation from seismic waves generated by an earthquake will generate quite significantly in the crust,’ Dr Brenguier tells MailOnline.

‘It is critical in fracturation of the rock mass below the volcano.

‘This could eventually lead to transport of magma to the surface.

‘We can say that there is a high risk, there is a zone, an area that we image, that shows an anomaly of pressure.
‘There were theories that the magma should be quite pressurised because the last eruption was 300 years ago.

‘For the first time we made a direct observation of this kind of critical stage.

But he adds it is not possible within their results for the researchers to give an exact timescale for when an eruption might occur.

On Yellowsotne & Katia

How to Keep Things Hot at Yellowstone and Katla: Just Add Water

A large fumarole (steam vent) in the Norris Basin at Yellowstone. The steam escape the hydrothermal system here might be over 400C. Photo by Erik Klemetti.

Two volcanoes that get the interwebs all hot and bothered have made the news in the last week. First, Katla in Iceland produced some glacial flooding (jökulhlaups) that followed some earthquakes. Second, over at everyone’s favorite caldera, Yellowstone, there has been a lot of buzz over roads melting due to heat from the volcano. Now, as odd as it might seem, these two events are connected by the same process: geothermal (and hydrothermal) activity. When it comes down to it, most volcanoes are sitting on big heat sources. One way to lose the heat is by erupting, but probably the most important way to lose the heat is by the circulation of water in the crust. This water help keep things hot by efficiently moving heat generated by the magma that might be 5-6 kilometers (or more) below the surface and bringing it up to the surface — all of this happening when there is no threat of an eruption.

When you examine the history of a volcano, you’ll quickly see it spends much of its existence not erupting. However, during those periods of quiet between eruptions, there is plenty going on beneath the volcano. The magma is cooling and releasing heat and fluids in the surrounding rocks, causing the development of a hydrothermal system above the cooling magma. This is usually the top 5 kilometers of crust above the magma, where cracks in the rocks can help hot fluids rise from the magma and cool fluids (like rainwater or snowmelt) percolate down into the crust and heat up. So, how hot does it get under a volcano? Well, by examining the exposed innards of extinct volcanoes, we can see how much alteration the rocks and minerals have experienced. This is an important step in understand how certain valuable ore deposits, like porphyry copper, form above bodies of magma under volcanoes.

Looking at these zones of hydrothermal alteration, it is clear that the subsurface temperatures get hot — upwards of 300-500°C even multiple kilometers above any cooling magma body. Now, that heat isn’t getting there by conduction alone. Rock isn’t a very good conductor, so heat won’t travel far. However, if you heat up water traveling through cracks in the rock, you can transport a lot of heat upwards. That’s because water has a high heat capacity – think about how the Gulf Stream brings warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic to keep Europe warm. That is what allows all the alteration to occur and for hydrothermal systems to form. These hydrothermal systems are constantly changing based on the seasons (thanks to changing access to water percolating into the crust), seismicity that opens and closes cracks and yes, even magma moving. However, most of the time, the changes in the system are merely due to new routes these hot fluids take to reach the surface.

What are the manifestations of these hydrothermal fluids? You see some of them at most active volcanoes: steam vents (fumaroles), hot springs, geysers, mud pots. Each is a different way heat escapes the ground. Steam vents tend to be the hottest, releasing steam (with other volcanic gases) at temperatures of 300-500°C. Geysers are explosions of superheated water, so they will be ~100°C. Hot springs and mud pots tend to be much cooler, with temperatures usually 20-70°C, depending of the vigor of the spring or geyser.

Glacial flooding from underneath Mýrdalsjökull in Iceland, seen at Múlakvísl.

So, even moving water through the crust can bring a lot of heat upwards and that is common at most volcanoes — as are changes in the hydrothermal system over time. So, what is happening at Katla and Yellowstone?First, at Katla, the hydrothermal system works underneath a large ice cap (Mýrdalsjökull). Especially during warmer months, more water can percolate into the crust, causing changes in the hydrothermal system (which, by itself, can generate earthquakes). If more heated water and steam is allowed to reach the surface, then more ice can melt and pond until it is catastrophically released as a flood. Reports from the Iceland Met Office support this idea – the waters are warm as they come out from under the glacier. However, unlike an eruption-driven event, the melting isn’t accompanied by a continuously increasing number of earthquakes that would betray magma moving. So, the most likely explanation for these floods is increasing melting due to changes in the hydrothermal (geothermal) system, not an eruption. These sorts of floods have happened before during this time of year at Katla, sometimes more dramatic than others.

Now, at Yellowstone, we have a different manifestation of the same thing. The news has splashed images of melting roads on Firehole Lake Drive in an area with intense hydrothermal activity. The usual suspects (e.g., the Yellowstone disaster groupies) want to say this is evidence that an eruption is in the works. Well, again, sorry to disappoint the lunatic fringe, but it isn’t. Instead, this is a sign that the hydrothermal system under Firehole Lake Drive has shifted some — maybe due to the constant seismicity that gently shakes Yellowstone, maybe due to the water table, maybe even due to the road itself — and now heat is coming up directly under the road. Now, asphalt like that can melt at temperatures as low at ~50-70°C, so well within the range of most hydrothermal features. Measures of the road surface by NPS workers are ~70°C, so we’re well within the range of temperatures needed to melt the road. Just move where that hot spring or fumarole is coming up and boom, you have heat under the road, melting it.

 

Bumpass Hell, the hydrothermal area near Lassen Peak in California. Photo by Erik Klemetti.

I’ve seen roads get damaged or destroyed by changing hydrothermal vent locations around Lassen Peak (see above) and in Rotorua in New Zealand — both places with active hydrothermal systems and shockingly, no giant eruption following the damage to the road. There are many places in Yellowstone itself where parking lots have been closed due to changes in the location of hydrothermal vents, causing them to melt and collapse due to the increased heat. This is by no means a harbinger of doom but rather exactly what we might expect in a place with an vigorous hydrothermal system. In a sense, Yellowstone is less of a “supervolcano” than a “super plumbing system” moving fluids around the crust.

Now, the real hazard from changing hydrothermal systems at Yellowstone is not a giant “super-eruption”, but rather much more dangerous (because they are far more likely) hydrothermal explosions. These are caused by superheated water and steam getting trapped and then releasing catastrophically. These can happen without warning and if you’re too close, you’ll be covered with boiling water and debris from the explosion. As usual, the place to look for the most accurate information about potentially hazards at Yellowstone is the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. If they’re worried, so should you. They monitor the temperatures of these hydrothermal features across the caldera and if there are widespread changes, they examine them to see if they could be related to magma moving (least likely) or merely the shifting of the hydrothermal system (most likely).

So, remember, the increasing heat at the surface near a volcano isn’t always from magma — it can merely be caused by changes in how hot water and steam move through the crust. It is one of the ways that volcanoes can dissipate the heat released by magma cooling underground and more importantly, it doesn’t have to be magma that is trying to erupt.

from:    http://www.wired.com/2014/07/how-to-keep-things-hot-at-yellowstone-and-katla-volcanoes-just-add-water/#more-1252261

Western Turkey Earthquake

Minor earthquake – Western Turkey on July 19, 2014

Last update: July 19, 2014 at 4:14 pm by By

 

Screen Shot 2014-07-19 at 18.06.34

4 km S of İzmir, Turkey / pop: 2,500,603 / local time: 18:48:33.1 2014-07-19
4 km S of İzmir, Turkey / pop: 2,500,603 / local time: 18:48:33.1 2014-07-19
1 km NE of Karabağlar, Turkey / pop: 458,000 / local time: 18:48:33.1 2014-07-19

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 3.7

Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2014-07-19 18:48:33

GMT/UTC Time : 2014-07-19 15:48:33

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2014/07/19/minor-earthquake-western-turkey-on-july-19-2014/

Movement of North American Craton

6/04/2014 — North American Craton shows MAJOR movement — Fracking earthquakes + Yellowstone swarming

The pressure on the craton edge is showing at multiple weak points along its perimeter,  Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, and Yellowstone as well….. earthquake swarms occurring at the fracking operations, and dormant volcanic magma chambers.

craton quakes june 4 2014


In the midwest, at the fracking operation in Arkansas, there has been a period of relative “silence” across the whole of the state.

This “silence” came on the heels of a state government MORATORIUM on hydraulic fracturing (fracking) issued after thousands of separate earthquake events which occurred at several Arkansas fracking operations in 2011, 2012, and 2013.

moratorium fracking arkansas

 


Today , June 4 2014, the silence was broken by a borderline 4.0M earthquake at a newer Arkansas fracking operation.  Also at the location, a possible old dormant volcanic core (sugarloaf mountain).

arkansas fracking earthquake june 4 2014

 


Overall, the plate is in a state of flux due to greater Pacific movement.  The Pacific plate is causing unrest to “spill over” normal subduction zones (like the West Coast US) , causing pressure to be placed on the relatively stable unsubducted craton (plate).  The edge of the plate is being moved by the pressure coming from the NW.

Here are the past 7 days of 4.0M+ earthquakes in the West Pacific, clearly heavy unrest taking place , spilling across the edges of the Pacific plate in all adjacent areas.

7 days 3.0m earthquakes june 4 2014

from:    http://dutchsinse.tatoott1009.com/


Earthquake Between Puerto Rico & Dominican Republic

Strong deep earthquake close to Punta Cana, Dominican Republic

Last update: May 29, 2014 at 1:22 pm by By

Update May 29 13:19 UTC : Local reports are mentioning houses with cracks in Salva León de Higuey

Update 22:24 UTC : List of the most recent earthquakes closest to today’s epicenter. Interesting to see is that almost all of these earthquakes are very deep, this due to the movement of the Oceanic plate towards the south (she dives below the Caribbean plate).  The tectonics of this Caribbean area are very complex with a number of sub-plates as well as dangerous transform faults, like the one who generated the cruel Haiti earthquake. Transform faults are resulting in a mainly horizontal movement which can generate a lot of damage to not properly build houses.

Screen Shot 2014-05-29 at 00.40.04

Update 22:24 UTC : Below the seismogram of this earthquake as recorded in Presa de Sabenta, Dominican Republic

Screen Shot 2014-05-29 at 00.17.08

Update 21:57 UTC : The main reason why this earthquake was felt in such a wide radius (Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic) is the depth of the hypocenter or breaking point. Although the radius is very wide, the concentrated shaking at the epicenter is luckily also a lot weaker. When this earthquake would have been shallower the risk on serious damage would have been a lot bigger.

Update 21:46 UTC  : USGS has increased the Magnitude again to M5.8 at the same depth. Below the shaking intensities for the most important cities close to the epicenter.

Screen Shot 2014-05-28 at 23.39.01 Screen Shot 2014-05-28 at 23.39.10

Update 21:39 UTC : USGS has recalculated the Magnitude and has set it now to M5.7 at a depth of 91 km. USGS projects a max. Moderate shaking in the eastern part of the Dominican Republic and a weak shaking in Puerto Rico.

Screen Shot 2014-05-28 at 23.33.51

Update 21:35 UTC : The earthquake will surely NOT generate a tsunami.

Update 21:32 UTC : The preliminary earthquake Magnitude values are in between 5.3 and 5.8 at a depth of 100 km. This means that there is only a limited chance on serious damage. The deeper the hypocenter is, the less chance on damage.

Screen Shot 2014-05-28 at 23.12.55

Update : Below the Focal Mechanism or Beach Ball of this earthquake. It shows a clear compression

Screen Shot 2014-05-29 at 00.38.40

31km (19mi) ESE of Boca de Yuma, Dominican Republic
37km (23mi) S of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic
55km (34mi) SE of Salvaleon de Higuey, Dominican Republic
68km (42mi) ESE of La Romana, Dominican Republic
175km (109mi) E of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 5.3

Local Time (conversion only below land) : Unknown

GMT/UTC Time : 2014-05-28 21:15:00

 

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2014/05/28/moderate-earthquake-80-miles-w-of-mayaguez-puerto-rico-on-may-28-2014/

Earthquake – Bay of Bengal

Strong earthquake in the Bay Of Bengal but far out of the coast – many injured due to panic

Last update: May 21, 2014 at 11:31 pm by By

 

Update 23:10 UTC : Below a revised list of shaking intensity in the nearest cities. The MMI IV (light shaking) in Bhubaneshwar explains in part why so many people were injured.

Screen Shot 2014-05-22 at 01.10.12

Update 19:29 UTC : New reports are talking about 50 injured and 1 older man killed in Bhuaneshwar. So fat all injuries are said to have occurred due to panic (mainly storming out of buildings). We are still unsure about the reason of the death of the old man. (source : mbctv.co.in)

Update 19:28 UTC : Residents in some places of Odisha and Tamil Nadu moved out of their houses as soon as the quake struck and a few buildings developed cracks in Bhubaneshwar where a dozen people were injured in a rush to move out of multi-storeyed buildings.

Update 18:36 UTC : Residents of Punama Gate locality in Old Town area of Bhuaneshwar said cracks had appeared on the walls of some buildings and kitchen utensils fell off the racks. A report from Cuttack said electricity supply was snapped for about 15 minutes in some areas of the city after the tremor. Panic gripped several parts of Odisha’s Kendrapara district where residents felt the tremors for about 10 seconds. (source : indianexpress.com)

Update 17:51 UTC : This harmless earthquake is a GOOD REMINDER to be PREPARED for earthquakes. Click here to see what you should keep in mind if the shaking starts or when you live close to the beach.

Screen Shot 2014-05-21 at 19.52.52

Update 17:50 UTC : So far we counted that at least 14 India States felt the earthquake. We have even received Felt Reports from Nepal!

Update : Below the Focal Mechanism or Beach Ball of this earthquake who is showing a mainly horizontal displacement (tsunami excluded).  “Understanding Beach Balls” article

Screen Shot 2014-05-21 at 19.58.12

Update 16:45 UTC : The earthquake was also felt in neighboring Bangladesh.

Screen Shot 2014-05-21 at 18.55.22 Screen Shot 2014-05-21 at 18.55.31 Screen Shot 2014-05-21 at 18.55.47

Update 16:34 UTC : Epicenter at least 200 km out of the coast – NO Tsunami danger at this Magnitude but strong currents at the beaches may occur

Screen Shot 2014-05-21 at 18.41.25

469 km S of Calcutta, India / pop: 4,631,392 / local time: 21:51:54.2 2014-05-21
314 km SE of Bhubaneshwar, India / pop: 762,243 / local time: 21:51:54.2 2014-05-21
266 km SE of Parādīp Garh, India / pop: 85,868 / local time: 21:51:54.2 2014-05-21

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 6

Local Time (conversion only below land) : Unknown

from:   http://earthquake-report.com/2014/05/21/strong-earthquake-bay-of-bengal-on-may-21-2014/

El Nino 2014?

El Niño: Is 2014 the new 1997?

May 19, 2014:  Every ten days, the NASA/French Space Agency Jason-2 satellite maps all the world’s oceans, monitoring changes in sea surface height, a measure of heat in the upper layers of the water.   Because our planet is more than 70% ocean, this information is crucial to global forecasts of weather and climate.

Lately, Jason-2 has seen something brewing in the Pacific—and it looks a lot like 1997.

“A pattern of sea surface heights and temperatures has formed that reminds me of the way the Pacific looked in the spring of 1997,” says Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “That turned out to be the precursor of a big El Niño.”

splash

A new ScienceCast video examines the evidence that an El Niño is developing in the Pacific.  Play it

“We can’t yet say for sure that an El Niño will develop in 2014, or how big it might be,” cautions Mike McPhaden of NOAA’s Pacific Environmental Research Laboratories in Seattle, “but the Jason-2 data support the El Niño Watch issued last month by NOAA.”

What Jason-2 has been seeing is a series of “Kelvin waves”—massive ripples in sea level that travel across the Pacific from Australia to South America.  Forecasters are paying close attention because these waves could be a herald of El Niño.

The two phenomena, Kelvin waves and El Niño, are linked by wind. Pacific trade winds blow from east to west, pushing sun-warmed surface waters toward Indonesia.  As a result, the sea level near Indonesia is normally 45 cm higher than it is near Ecuador.  Researchers call that area the “warm pool”—it is the largest reservoir of warm water on our planet.

Sometimes, however, trade winds falter for a few days or weeks, and some of that excess sea level   ripples back toward the Americas. “That’s a Kelvin wave,” says McPhaden. “It’s not unusual to see a couple every winter.”

El Niño happens when trade winds falter not just for days, but for many months. Then Kelvin waves    cross the Pacific like a caravan, raising sea level and leaving warmer equatorial waters in their wake.

On May 8th, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction forecasted a 65% chance of El Niño developing during the summer of 2014. More

“The El Niño of 1997/98 was a textbook example,” recalls Patzert. “At that time we were getting data from TOPEX/Poseidon, a predecessor of Jason-2.  Sea surface maps showed a whitish bump, indicating a sea level some 10 centimeters higher than usual, moving along the equator from Australia to South America.”

“The same pattern is repeating in 2014,” says McPhaden. “A series of Kelvin waves generated by localized west wind bursts in the western Pacific that began in mid-January 2014 are headed east. Excitement is building as a third weakening of the Pacific trade winds happened in mid-April.”

Ocean and atmospheric scientists at NOAA and NASA are carefully monitoring the Pacific trade winds. The tipping point for declaring a significant El Niño will be an even longer lasting, larger collapse in Pacific trade winds, possibly signaling a shift in weather all around our planet.

“It will become much clearer over the next two to three months whether these recent developments are the forerunner of a major El Niño—or any El Niño at all,” says McPhaden.

from:    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/19may_elnino/

GAIA is ALIVE

The Earth is a Sentient Living Organism

http://themindunleashed.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/the-earthhh.jpg

Contrary to the common belief that the Earth is simply a dense planet whose only function is a resource for its inhabitants, our planet is in fact a breathing, living organism. When we think of the Earth holistically, as one living entity of its own, instead of the sum of its parts, it takes on a new meaning. Our planet functions as a single organism that maintains conditions necessary for its survival.

James Lovelock published in a book in 1979 providing many useful lessons about the interaction of physical, chemical, geological, and biological processes on Earth.

Throughout history, the concept of Mother Earth has been a part of human culture in one form or another. Everybody has heard of Mother Earth, but have you ever stopped to think who (or what) Mother Earth is?

What is Gaia?

Lovelock defined Gaia as “…a complex entity involving the Earth’s biosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and soil; the totality constituting a feedback or cybernetic system which seeks an optimal physical and chemical environment for life on this planet.”

Through Gaia, the Earth sustains a kind of homeostasis, the maintenance of relatively constant conditions.

The truly startling component of the Gaia hypothesis is the idea that the Earth is a single living entity. This idea is certainly not new. James Hutton (1726-1797), the father of geology, once described the Earth as a kind of superorganism. And right before Lovelock, Lewis Thomas, a medical doctor and skilled writer, penned these words in his famous collection of essays, The Lives of a Cell:

“Viewed from the distance of the moon, the astonishing thing about the earth, catching the breath, is that it is alive. The photographs show the dry, pounded surface of the moon in the foreground, dry as an old bone. Aloft, floating free beneath the moist, gleaming, membrane of bright blue sky, is the rising earth, the only exuberant thing in this part of the cosmos. If you could look long enough, you would see the swirling of the great drifts of white cloud, covering and uncovering the half-hidden masses of land. If you had been looking for a very long, geologic time, you could have seen the continents themselves in motion, drifting apart on their crustal plates, held afloat by the fire beneath. It has the organized, self-contained look of a live creature, full of information, marvelously skilled in handling the sun.”

John Nelson illustrated the Breathing Earth,” (below) which are two animated GIFs he designed to visualize what a year’s worth of Earth’s seasonal transformations look like from outer space. Nelson–a data visualizer, stitched together from NASA’s website 12 cloud-free satellite photographs taken each month over the course of a year. Once the images were put together in a sequence, the mesmerizing animations showed what Nelson describes as “the annual pulse of vegetation and land ice.”

BreathingEarth1-3b

As the climate changes, the planet comes alive. Earth appears to breathe when ice cover grows and melts–in and out, in and out.

White frost radiates out from the top of the globe and creeps south in all directions. It travels through Siberia, Canada, and northern Europe, heading towards the equator located around the circle’s edge, but ends before the top of Africa. The Mediterranean Sea is the visible body of water on the top left hand side, and the Great Lakes make up a small network of dark blue shapes on the land mass to the right.

The Earth acts as a single system – it is a coherent, self-regulated, assemblage of physical, chemical, geological, and biological forces that interact to maintain a unified whole balanced between the input of energy from the sun and the thermal sink of energy into space.

In its most basic configuration, the Earth acts to regulate flows of energy and recycling of materials. The input of energy from the sun occurs at a constant rate and for all practical purposes is unlimited. This energy is captured by the Earth as heat or photosynthetic processes, and returned to space as long-wave radiation. On the other hand, the mass of the Earth, its material possessions, are limited (except for the occasional input of mass provided as meteors strike the planet). Thus, while energy flows through the Earth (sun to Earth to space), matter cycles within the Earth.

The idea of the Earth acting as a single system as put forth in the Gaia hypothesis has stimulated a new awareness of the connectedness of all things on our planet and the impact that man has on global processes. No longer can we think of separate components or parts of the Earth as distinct. No longer can we think of man’s actions in one part of the planet as independent. Everything that happens on the planet – the deforestation/reforestation of trees, the increase/decrease of emissions of carbon dioxide, the removal or planting of croplands – all have an affect on our planet. The most difficult part of this idea is how to qualify these effects, i.e. to determine whether these effects are positive or negative. If the Earth is indeed self-regulating, then it will adjust to the impacts of man. However, as we will see, these adjustments may act to exclude man, much as the introduction of oxygen into the atmosphere by photosynthetic bacteria acted to exclude anaerobic bacteria. This is the crux of the Gaia hypothesis.

One of the early predictions of this hypothesis was that there should be a sulfur compound made by organisms in the oceans that was stable enough against oxidation in water to allow its transfer to the air. Either the sulfur compound itself, or its atmospheric oxidation product, would have to return sulfur from the sea to the land surfaces. The most likely candidate for this role was deemed to be dimethyl sulfide.

Published work done at the University of Maryland by first author Harry Oduro, together with UMD geochemist James Farquhar and marine biologist Kathryn Van Alstyne of Western Washington University, provides a tool for tracing and measuring the movement of sulfur through ocean organisms, the atmosphere and the land in ways that may help prove or disprove the controversial Gaia theory. Their study appears in this week’s Online Early Edition of the  (PNAS).

The Story of Water by Alick Bartholomew, is another unique publication in that it reflects the author’s deep knowledge of the principles of whole geophysical systems, which helps us understand the Earth as an integrated Gaia system that sustains us. The book begins by describing our usual view of water based on Western science and then deftly moves on to the frontier sciences that embrace water as the source of life in terms of biological systems, quantum energy fields, etheric fields, spirals, vortices, and as a medium for communications and memory. An understanding of these principles can lead to strategies for treating our water in ways that guarantee a sustainable future for humankind.

How Does Gaia Work?

The homeostasis regulated by the Earth is much like the internal maintenance of our own bodies; processes within our body insure a constant temperature, blood pH, electrochemical balance, etc. The inner workings of Gaia, therefore, can be viewed as a study of the physiology of the Earth, where the oceans and rivers are the Earth’s blood, the atmosphere is the Earth’s lungs, the land is the Earth’s bones, and the living organisms are the Earth’s senses. Lovelock calls this the science of geophysiology – the physiology of the Earth (or any other planet).

To understand how the Earth is living, let’s take a look at what defines life. Physicists define life as a system of locally reduced entropy (life is the battle against entropy). Molecular biologists view life as replicating strands of DNA that compete for survival and evolve to optimize their survival in changing surroundings. Physiologists might view life as a biochemical system that us able to use energy from external sources to grow and reproduce. According to Lovelock, the geophysiologist sees life as a system open to the flux of matter and energy but that maintains an internal steady-state.

Beyond the scientific importance of what we have discussed here, we might do well to consider some of the more poetical thoughts of the originator of the theory:

“If Gaia exists, the relationship between her and man, a dominant animal species in the complex living system, and the possibly shifting balance of power between them, are questions of obvious importance… The Gaia hypothesis is for those who like to walk or simply stand and stare, to wonder about the Earth and the life it bears, and to speculate about the consequences of our own presence here. It is an alternative to that pessimistic view which sees nature as a primitive force to be subdued and conquered. It is also an alternative to that equally depressing picture of our planet as a demented spaceship, forever traveling, driverless and purposeless, around an inner circle of the sun.”

The strong Gaia hypothesis states that life creates conditions on Earth to suit itself. Life created the planet Earth, not the other way around. As we explore the solar system and galaxies beyond, it may one day be possible to design an experiment to test whether life indeed manipulates planetary processes for its own purposes or whether life is just an evolutionary processes that occurs in response to changes in the non-living world.

About the Author

Liz Bentley is a graduate in geology, professional photographer and freelance journalist with an acute insight into fossil records and climatology.

from:    http://themindunleashed.org/2014/05/earth-sentient-living-organism.html

Record Drought in California

Record May Heat, Drought, and Fires Scorch California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on May 15, 2014

Record May heat sent temperatures soaring above 100° in much of Southern California on Wednesday, and fierce Santa Ana winds fanned fires that scorched at least 9,000 acres in San Diego County, forcing thousands to evacuate. For the second consecutive day, the Los Angeles Airport set a record for the hottest May temperature since record keeping began in 1944. Wednesday’s 96° beat the record set on Tuesday of 93°. Other all-time May record heat was recorded at Camarillo (102°) and Oxnard (102°) on Wednesday. In Downtown Los Angeles, the mercury hit 99° on Wednesday, falling short of the all-time May record is 103° set on May 25, 1896. More record heat is forecast on Thursday, and hot offshore Santa Ana winds will bring extreme fire danger.


Figure 1. A firenado in Fallbrook, California at old Highway 395 and Interstate 15 on May 14, 2014. Image credit: Jena Rents via Twitter.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of fires burning in Southern California and Northern Mexico on Wednesday afternoon, May 14, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

100% of California in severe to exceptional drought
Today’s U.S. Drought Monitor report showed grim news for California: 100% of the state is now in severe or higher drought, up from 96% the previous week. Though just 25% of California is classified as being in the highest level of drought, “Exceptional”, Erin McCarthy at the Wall Street Journal estimates that farms comprising 53% of California’s $44.7 billion market value lie in the Exceptional drought area. Averaged state-wide, the Palmer Drought Severity Index during April 2014 was the second worst on record, behind 1977. For the 12-month period ending in April, drought conditions in California for 2013 – 2014 were also the second most severe on record, slightly below the 2008 – 2009 drought. To break the drought, most of the state needs 9 – 15″ or precipitation to fall in one month. This amounts to more than a half-year’s worth of precipitation for most of the state.


Figure 3. The May 13, 2014 U.S. Drought Monitor showed 100% of California in severe or higher drought, with 25% of the state in the highest level of drought, “Exceptional.” Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

California’s rainy season is over
The California October through April rainy season is now over. Between October 2013 and April 2014, the state received 10.44″ of precipitation, which is just 51% of average for the period, and the third lowest such total on record. Going back to 1895, the record low mark was set in 1976 – 1977, when the state got just 34% of its average rainy season precipitation. California typically receives less than 10% of its annual precipitation between May and September, and the coming hot and dry summer in combination with a severely depleted Sierra snowpack will cause a severe fire season and significant agricultural damages. The fifth and final snow survey of the season on May 1 found that the statewide snowpack’s water content–which normally provides about a third of the water for California’s farms and cities–was only 18% of average for the date. Already, the 2014 drought has cost the state at least $3.6 billion in agricultural damages, the California Farm Water Coalition estimates. CAL FIRE recently announced it had hired 125 additional firefighters to help address the increased fire threat due to drought conditions.

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2679