Act of God? Lightning Strikes St. Peter’s Dome

Lightning strikes St. Peter’s Basilica on Feb. 11, 2013, a few hours after Pope Benedict XVI said he was resigning.

Youtube video still

Monday’s (Feb. 11) surprising announcement by Pope Benedict XVI that he was resigning from the papacy struck some observers like a bolt out of the blue.

And a few hours later, an actual bolt of lightning struck St. Peter’s Basilica, the centerpiece of the Vatican and one of the holiest sites in Christendom, NBC News reported.

Was the lightning strike, coming just hours after Pope Benedict’s announcement, evidence of God’s wrath, or some ominous sign from above? Perhaps, but it was more likely the natural result of a rainstorm that was passing over Rome at the time.

Lightning often strikes religious symbols, because they are usually placed high in the sky and are, in many cases, the highest thing around. Coupled with the fact that they’re often made of metal, lightning striking religious statuary or other icons seems quite normal.

Brazil’s 130-foot “Christ the Redeemer” statue atop Rio de Janeiro’s Sugarloaf Mountain, for example, has been struck by lightning several times since it was completed in 1931.

Secular objects are also often struck by lightning. Airplanes are struck by lightning frequently, and the Statue of Liberty, the Empire State Building and other tall buildings have all been hit.

St. Peter’s Basilica is the tallest dome in the world at 448 feet (137 meters) from the floor to the cross that was added to the very top by Pope Clement VIII in the 16th century. A lightning rod points skyward from the top of that cross — it’s likely that this is what was struck by lightning Monday.

from:    http://news.discovery.com/earth/weather-extreme-events/lightning-strikes-st-peter-s-after-pope-resigns-130213.htm

hmmm.  Perhaps just too synchronistic to be chance!

Snow in Mexico and Southwest Texas, Record Heat in Australia

El Paso, Texas picked up 3.0” of snow (officially at the NWS office) on Thursday and Friday this week and heavy snow fell in the city of Chihuahua, Mexico about 200 miles south of El Paso. How unusual is this?

The answer is that it is not unusual to see snowfall in Chihuahua (or El Paso). The city of Chihuahua (pop. 840,000) rests at an altitude of 4,600’ (1,400 meters) and is one of Mexico’s coldest cities during the winter. About 2” of snow fell there on Thursday and the temperature fell to 32°F (0°C) during the duration of the snowfall between 2p.m.-6p.m. On average Chihuahua can expect one or two days of measureable snow every winter. It’s greatest snowfall on record is apparently 40 cm (about 16”) at some undisclosed date in the past.

A deep snow (about 6-8”) blanketed Chihuahua, Mexico on Christmas Eve, 2004. Such events are not as uncommon as one might suppose. Photographer unknown.

Mexico’s coldest temperature on record was also recorded in the Chihuahua State at the village of Valerio when a reading of -28.5°C (-19.3°F) was measured on January 30, 1949.

A map shows Mexico’s absolute minimum temperatures for the POR of 1941-1977 in C°. Note the large area of below zero F° (-18°C or lower) isotherms that reach far south of the border and into the Chihuahua region. The map has an apparent error so far as the -14°C isothermal line is concerned. Map from the Mexican Meteorlogical Department.

El Paso, Texas normally sees a few snowfalls every winter as well, even though it is a bit lower than Chihuahua at 3,700’ (1,140 m) but, of course, much further north. El Paso’s greatest snowfall on record was 22.4” on December 13-15, 1987 (about the same as Chicago’s record!) of which 16.8” fell in one 24-hour period. During the great cold wave of January 1962 the temperature fell to an all-time record low of -8°F (-22.2°C) on January 11th.

Some elevated suburbs of El Paso received as much as 8” from the recent storm. Ironically, the official 3” at the NWS office means that the city has now had three times more snowfall this season than Chicago, which continues its record-breaking streak of snowless weather.

Hot in Australia

All-time record highs were broken at several Australian sites in Western Australia. Red Rocks Point topped the list off with a 48.6°C (119.5°F) reading on January 3rd. Eucla, which sits right on the coast of the Great Australian Bight, measured a record 48.2°C (118.8°F). Perth had its hottest New Year’s Eve on record (and 3rd warmest December day) when the heat peaked at 42.1°C (107.8°F) on December 31st. Temperatures are forecast to exceed 45°C (113°F) today (January 4th) in portions of South Australia and New South Wales. Australia’s hottest temperature on record is 50.7°C (123.3°F) at Oodnadatta, South Australia on January 2, 1960.

Hobart, Tasmania broke its all-time heat record on Friday with a 41.8°C (107.2°F) reading. The previous record was 40.8°C (105.4°F) set in January 1976. The POR for this site in Hobart is 126 years old.

A wild fire swept through the town of Dunalley in southeast Tasmania briefly heating the weather site’s thermometer to 59.9°C (140°F) at one point Friday afternoon (at 4:22 p.m.). Winds were gusting to 82 km/h at the time.

KUDOS:Howard Rainford for Australian temperatures.

Christopher C. Burt
Weather Historian

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/article.html

November 4-10

Overall Color for the Week:    Molasses Brown

The theme this week is AWARENESS.  In all you do, you encounter, you say, you experience, etc. be aware of the larger picture.  When you see something, KNOW that you see it.  When you hear something, KNOW that you hear it.  When you smell something, KNOW that you smell it.

So, this is a week in which nothing happens because everything is happening, and there are so, so many who do not want things to change.  And this, then, is the conflict, the push-me/pull-you energy which makes everything seem so confused, those holding on to the past, to how it has always been, versus those who are moving forward, who have realized that things will never ever be the same again.  Change is in the air.  There are so many shifts going on.  The various layers of existence are drifting apart.  People, places, things, which seemed to be right here, right now are holding onto their comfort levels, some with defiance, some with anger, and some with violence.  There is regret in the air this week.  There is sorrow.  There is understanding.  It is just how things are right now.  It is important to know that, to accept that as true, and to be kind to yourself.  This is not a week for judgment or guilt.  Things are moving forward as they must.  There will be some surprises and some shake-ups, but if you are in touch with the larger pattern, you will be able to see all of these things for what they are.  There is much learning going on this week.  Also, the time is right to look at all the stuff in your life, on all levels, and start clearing out.  Yu will need lots of room for the novelty that is arriving.

On the larger scale, the shake-ups continue on all levels.  There is sorrow here too.  Gaia has more to say to all, and it is important to be aware of where this is happening.  There are messages for those who live in those areas.  Again, there will be Earth movements and storms in out of the way places, which will not be noted in the media.  It is well to research these things for they are the beginnings of chain reactions that will come down and affect the globe.  Some of these things will be below the surface of the waters.  The oil spill will come back into the news as it is realized that is continues to this day.  The Gulf Stream is changing, and that will bring some anomalies.  The financial picture is blurred and becoming blurrier.  Things are falling apart on that level.  This is not a time for going into fear, rather be aware that the financial core is melting, and there will be some reverberations in that area as the month progresses.  This can lead to wild spending as well as the pulling in of money by the larger holders.  Travel will be a challenge this week, as Mercury goes retrograde on Tuesday.  This will also affect the election process.  The aftermath of Sandy continues to plague the east Coast which can lead to some unexpected maneuvers on the part of the people in charge and the police forces.  It is well to be aware of what is going on in regards to the whole idea of control, particularly by the militia.  There are people who are feeling that they are no longer pulling the strings as they did before, and this can lead to some odd events.  It is important to stay grounded and centered through all of this.  Know your power and approach everything, from this point forward, from your place of power.  Do not accept the opinions of others, for in so many cases they are mere categories that they are using to entrap you.  The Galaxy has surprises for us.  There can be some mention of this in the news.  That Galactic energy is making itself felt, even as the extra-terrestrial presence becomes more obvious.  Expect some sightings in areas of tension.  The Indian subcontinent can see some unusual events this year. There is also an individual who is coming forth who can startle with his charismatic pronouncements.  Expect also some startling news about this year’s harvest and the use of GMO’s.

Sunday, November 4:   Light Sage

Everything will be happening too late today.  If you had things you wanted to get done, you will, however they will be last minute completions.  Funny, though, this will not bother you, rather it can free you from a lot of the scheduling stuff that has kept you on a treadmill, running, running, running, and getting nowhere.  This is the first day in a long time in which you will end the day feeling that, in fact, you did get somewhere.  There are lessons here.

Monday, November 5:    Bright Sapphire

Things remembered and things forgotten.  It will all come together in the current energy.  All of tis can leave you feeling somewhat confused, and, at the same time, needing to seem to be in control of it all.  Let go of that.  It is not time to let the ego take hold.  It is time to let the deeper self see what is going on, which means to feel the situation and to show you what it means for you.  There is a whole lot of learning in the air today.  Some will be easy, some not quite so.  But it is all stuff you have known for so long.  You just needed to be reminded.  When a helping hand is offered, take it.  There is no agenda, just compassion.

Tuesday, November 6:     Asparagus Green

Reverberations.  That is what the day is all about.  Everything has been out  there before.  Some things for quite some time, others just recently but the reverberations are being felt today.  This can affect you in every area.  Look to your health and do not overtax yourself.  Look at the people around you.  You will be seeing what they truly are about.  This can give you a few moments of misgivings, but it is important to let it go.  The reverberations are only what was always there coming to the surface. If you can move into your inner knowing, you will know that you knew it all before.  This is a day for strength  When what you knew intuitively comes to the surface it can surprise, startle, shock and even hurt you if you are not open to what it is that you know.  Let things be as they are.  See what you see , know what you know, and move into the larger perspective.  It is all part of that pattern.  The jigsaw puzzle is taking form.  There are things that are important to you and things that are not.  But through it all is the universal pattern.  Regardless, there are some in-your-face moments coming out today.  Time for a mirror.  Send them back to the ones who do not want to see what THEY are.

Wednesday, November 7:      Khaki Yellow

It is time to let go.  It is time to know that so much you thought was important, even critical, was only illusion, and that illusion has been manipulated to make you feel that it was real.  This is a day for going within.  To honor, recognize, amaze at, the power that is within.  To know that any true power comes from within.  This is a day on which perspectives are being tested, wrung out, and replaced.  It is good.  We often do not trust what we know within the heart until we have no other choice.  Right now, there is no choices other than to act from what we know to be true based upon the deepest essence of WHO we are.  Trust your intuition.  It works on so many more levels than the poor limited human psyche.  There are lessons based on the wisdom of the heart that will be coming your way today.  They can intrigue you, but most of all, they will console you in knowing that if you trust your connection to the Universal  Consciousness, you can create miracles.  As with so many things, you have to do them in order to know that you CAN do them.  Fly.

Thursday, November 8:    Sage Green

The lessons continue in the current energy.  Interestingly, however, you are both student and teacher in much of this.  There is a new cooperation that is eddying around everyone, and if you allow yourself to be open to it, you will find that you move into the flow with more ease and confidences.  This can affect all parts of your physicality, and will, in time be reflected in how your body looks.  The lights inside the bio-photons, are being charged up by the increasing action of the Sun, regardless of what NASA may be telling you about the Sun’s effects at this time.  You are learning what it is to participate with Gaia as a true light being, and the energies of the day can bring you forward in this.  There is much learning to be done, and a large part of what you do is according to your own choices.  This is another shift day.  Take the time to go within and review your pacts with yourself and the Universe.  There is much work to be done, and you have many more resources than you knew  Time spent in contemplation, creation, meditation can bring to you the depths of your awareness while awakening you to your potential and your connectedness.

A flock of homing pigeons released and tasked with finding their way home. Scientists aren’t sure why some of these racing pigeons disappear in what has been dubbed Birdmuda Triangle. CREDIT: Gail Johnson, Shutterstock

Hundreds of racing pigeons have been disappearing over a sleepy pocket of North East England, earning the region a reputation as the “Birdmuda Triangle.”

On Saturday (Aug. 25), the Telegraph reported, one club of pigeon fanciers released a flock of 230 birds from North Yorkshire. Only 13 birds arrived at their destination in Scotland.

Some of the aggrieved hobbyists — who routinely release trained pigeons tasked with finding their way home from distances of hundreds of miles — are now considering grounding their remaining birds until the mystery is solved.

Pigeons have long baffled scientists with their uncanny navigational abilities. Earlier this year, researchers at Baylor College identified one component of the birds’ internal GPS when they showed that their brains contain a specialized group of cells that measure the strength and direction of the Earth’s magnetic field, serving as a compass.  [9 Weird Animal Facts]

But what special property of a triangular region in North East England — marked off by places called Wetherby, Corsett and Thirsk, and measuring 65 miles (105 km) on its longest side — could be capable of short-circuiting a pigeon’s sense of home?

Some racers have implicated a nearby military intelligence operation, blaming rogue signals from the Royal Air Force’s Menwith Hill satellite station for jamming their birds’ instincts.

“There’s been a fair amount of experimentation on the effect of radio signals on pigeon orientation,” said Charles Walcott, a professor of neurobiology and behavior at Cornell University who has been studying pigeons since 1962. “No one has ever seen any substantial effect.”

Others have attributed losses to unusually high levels of solar activity that they say have distorted the Earth’s magnetic field and, by extension, their pigeons’ mental maps. (Though it is merely following its normal cycle, the sun has been increasingly active lately.)

According to Walcott, researchers have shown that disruptions in the Earth’s magnetic field caused by solar flares do in fact jog pigeons’ internal compasses, changing the initial direction the birds choose to set off in when they’re first released. But a nationwide study published in the now-defunct Racing Pigeon Bulletin examined the results of pigeon races alongside variations in the Earth’s magnetic field and concluded that, in the United States at least, there was no correlation.

“But [the Racing Pigeon Bulletin study] doesn’t rule out the idea,” he told Life’s Little Mysteries. “It just says that over a big area there was no obvious effect; it doesn’t mean that there couldn’t be one in a small area.”

Walcott’s pick for the most plausible cause of England’s pigeon losses happens also to be the most likely explanation for the real Bermuda Triangle’s undue reputation as a mystical devourer of ships and men: bad weather.

The Telegraph reports that the section of North East England in question has been experiencing abnormally high rainfall, and some of the racers have proposed that missing pigeons may have been led far afield by their efforts to avoid storms.

“I think that explanation’s quite likely,” said Walcott. “Pigeons really do not like to fly in the rain because their feathers are not equipped for it, so in my experience pigeons will simply put down until the rain has passed.”

As for where last weekend’s 217 unaccounted-for racing birds headed when the sun came back out, Walcott says we may never know. He’s heard of mass disappearances at U.S. races before, and for some of the pigeon fanciers at those events, answers still haven’t surfaced.

“[T]hose pigeons that are lost, many of them find other pigeon lofts and go in. But some just plain disappear and you never see them again, and I don’t think anyone understands what’s going on,” he said.

from:    http://www.livescience.com/22783-birdmuda-triangle.html

Tropical Depression Seven continues westward across the central tropical Atlantic with little change in appearance. Looking remarkably like the tropical depression that became Tropical Storm Ernesto last week, TD 7 has a limited region of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. A large amount of dry air to the west and north is visible on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is interfering with TD 7′s heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a light 5 – 10 knots, which is favorable for intensification. Ocean temperatures are 26.5°C, which is a bit on the cool side, but these temperatures are 0.5° warmer than on Thursday. Winds at the Middle Atlantic buoy 41041 peaked at 29 mph, gusting to 38 mph, at 1:50 am EDT this Friday morning, when the center of TD 7 passed about 40 miles to the south. TD 7 will pass about 60 miles south of buoy 41040 near midnight tonight. The first hurricane hunter mission into TD 7 is scheduled for Saturday morning.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

Forecast for TD 7
TD 7 formed about 400 miles east-northeast of where Ernesto became a tropical depression, as seen on our wundermap. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently quite similar to what Ernesto experienced, and I expect TD 7 will struggle with dry air like Ernesto did. The SHIPS model predicts that shear will remain light through tonight, then rise to the moderate range on Saturday, when the storm will encounter upper-level southwesterly winds associated with a trough of low pressure. However, ocean temperatures will warm to 28°C, which may partially counteract the increase in shear, as far as maintaining a favorable environment for development. Dry air and shear may be significant enough to destroy TD 7 on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS and ECMWF models. These models tried to kill off Ernesto in a similar situation last week, so I am inclined to believe TD 7 will survive for the coming five days, but struggle. The official NHC forecast of a 45 mph tropical storm moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands Saturday night and Sunday is a reasonable one.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

93L
A strong tropical wave in the far Eastern Atlantic that emerged off the coast of Africa Thursday night was designated Invest 93L by NHC. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Sunday morning. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that while the atmosphere immediately surrounding the disturbance is moist, there is a large area of dry air from the Sahara to the west and north. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development during the coming week. The ECMWF model shows some weak development of 93L over the coming week, and predicts a general west-northwesterly track. The storm may be something Bermuda needs to be concerned about in eight or so days.

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2179

It’s mid-July, and we have yet to see a named storm form in the Atlantic this month. The computer models are not predicting any development through at least July 20, and if we make it all the way to the end of the month without a named storm forming, it will be the first July since 2009 without a named storm. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, 13 of 17 years (76%) have had a named storm form during July. The busiest July occurred in 2005, when five named storms and two major hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily–the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. Only eight major hurricanes have formed in July since record keeping began in 1851. As seen in Figure 1, most of the last half of July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the Southeast U.S. coast. These type of storms form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance (as happened for Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby in 2012.) There will be at least two cold fronts moving off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast over the next two weeks. The first of these fronts will push offshore around July 20, and we will need to watch the waters offshore of North Carolina for development then. Formation potential will be aided by ocean temperatures that are about 0.7°C (1°F) above average along the U.S. East Coast.

Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 – 2006 that formed July 16-31. The U.S. coast from North to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Only a few storms have formed in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in July. Wind shear is typically too high and SSTs too cool in July to allow African waves in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic to develop into tropical storms. However, a few long-track “Cape Verdes” hurricanes have occurred in July, spawned by tropical waves that came off the coast of Africa. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.

Figure 2. The seasonal distribution of Atlantic hurricane activity shows that July typically has low activity. Image credit: NHC.

Sea Surface Temperatures: slightly above average
The departure of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America was about 0.3°C above average during June (Figure 3.) This figure has not changed much over the first two weeks of July. These temperatures are not warm enough to appreciably affect the odds of a July named storm or hurricane. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through late-July, so SSTs should remain about 0.3°C above average during this period, due to average amounts of cold water mixing up from below due to the wind action on the water.

Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 12, 2012. SSTs were 0.3°C above average over the tropical Atlantic’s Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño on the way?
For two consecutive weeks, ocean temperatures 0.5 – 0.6°C above average have been present in the tropical Eastern Pacific, which is right at the threshold for a weak El Niño episode. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch, and gives a 61% chance that El Niño conditions will be present during the August – September – October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The likely development of a full-fledged El Niño episode means that Atlantic hurricane activity will probably be suppressed in 2012, due to the strong upper-level winds and high wind shear these events typically bring to the tropical Atlantic.

Figure 4. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N – 5°S, 120°W – 170°W, also called the “Niña 3.4 region”). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 9, 2012, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.5°C above average. To be considered an “El Niño episode”, El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Wind shear: above average
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream has two bands of strong high-altitude winds that are currently bringing high wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern branch (subtropical jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, and the northern branch (polar jet stream) is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore of New England. This configuration often leaves a “hole” of low shear between the two branches, off the Southeast U.S. coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. Wind shear has been about 10 – 20% higher than average over the first two weeks of July, and is predicted to be mostly above average for the coming two weeks. This will cut down on the odds of a July storm.

Figure 5. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been lower than average, due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, reducing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Dry air: above average
As seen in Figure 5, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Caribbean this year creating low levels of vertical instability. This has occurred due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. The Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles have also seen low vertical instability this summer. June and July are the peak months for dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past two weeks. Expect dry air to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form in the tropical Atlantic during July.

Steering currents: average
The predicted steering current pattern for the next two weeks is a typical one for July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 – 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October–we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2010 and 2011 steering current pattern, which recurved most storms out to sea–or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, which steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary: a below average chance of a July tropical storm
Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, SSTs are only slightly above average, and wind shear and vertical stability are above average, I’ll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during the remainder of July.

Figure 6. Hurricane Emilia over the Eastern Pacific at 20:35 UTC July 10, 2012. At the time, Emilia was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Emilia peaked earlier in the day as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds–the strongest hurricane in the East Pacific so far in 2012. Image credit: NASA.

An active Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It’s been a very active start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, where we’ve already had six named storms, four hurricanes, and three intense hurricanes. A typical season has 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes by July 14. The formation of Tropical Storm Fabio on July 12 marks the 4th earliest formation of the Eastern Pacific’s season’s sixth storm. The record is held by the year 1985, when the season’s sixth storm formed on July 2. Record keeping began in 1949.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I’ll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2152

Intense heat continues to bake a large portion of the U.S. this Tuesday, with portions of 17 states under heat advisories for dangerously high temperatures. The heat is particularly dangerous for the 1.4 million people still without power and air conditioning due to Friday’s incredible derecho event, which is now being blamed for 23 deaths. The ongoing heat wave is one of the most intense and widespread in U.S. history, according to wunderground’s weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. In his Sunday post, The Amazing June Heat Wave of 2012 Part 2: The Midwest and Southeast June 28-30, Mr. Burt documents that eighteen of the 298 locations (6%) that he follows closely because of their long period of record and representation of U.S. climate broke or tied their all-time heat records during the past week, and that “this is especially extraordinary since they have occurred in June rather than July or August when 95% of the previous all-time heat records have been set for this part of the country.” The only year with more all-time heat records than 2012 is 1936, when 61 cities of the 298 locations (20%) set all-time heat records. The summer of 1936 was the hottest summer in U.S. history, and July 1936 was the hottest month in U.S. history.

According to wunderground analysis of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) extremes database, during June 2012, 11% of the country’s 777 weather stations with a period of record of a century or more broke or tied all-time heat records for the month of June. Only 1936 (13% of June records broken or tied) and 1988 (12.5%) had a greater number of all-time monthly June records. I expect when NCDC releases their analysis of the June 2012 weather next week, they will rank the month as one of the top five hottest Junes in U.S. history.

Figure 1. Across the entire Continental U.S., 72% of the land area was classified as being in dry or drought conditions as of June 26, 2012. Conditions are not expected to improve much over the summer: the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s latest drought outlook shows much of the U.S. in persistent drought conditions, with very few areas improving. The rains brought by Tropical Storm Debby did help out Florida and Georgia, however. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

The forecast: hot and dry
July is traditionally the hottest month of the year, and July 2012 is likely to set more all-time heat records. The latest predictions from the GFS and ECMWF models show that a ridge of high pressure and dry conditions will dominate the weather over about 80 – 90% of the country during the next two weeks, except for the Pacific Northwest and New England. This will bring wicked hot conditions to most of the nation, but no all-time heat records are likely to fall. However, around July 11, a sharp ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the Western U.S., bringing the potential for crazy-hot conditions capable of toppling all-time heat records in many western states.

The intense heat and lack of rain, combined with soils that dried out early in the year due to lack of snowfall, have led to widespread areas of moderate to extreme drought over much of the nation’s grain growing regions, from Kansas to Indiana. The USDA is reporting steadily deteriorating crop conditions for corn and soybeans, and it is likely that a multi-billion dollar drought disaster is underway in the Midwest.

The wunderground Extremes page has an interactive map that allows one to look at the records for the 298 U.S. cities that Mr. Burt tracks. Click on the “Wunderground U.S. Records” button to see them.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Have a great 4th of July holiday, everyone, and I’ll be back Thursday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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The winter of 2012 blew out like a lion yesterday, with a massive Leap Day storm that pounded the Midwest with deadly tornadoes and heavy snow. A violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph winds tore through Harrisburg, Illinois at 4:56 am CST yesterday morning, killing six, injuring approximately 100, and damaging 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path seven miles long and 250 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. Another person was killed in southwest Missouri near Buffalo when am EF-2 tornado ripped through a mobile home park late Wednesday night. Twelve others were injured in the mobile home park. Four additional deaths occurred due to tornadoes in Cassville, MO, Smithville, TN, and Monterey, TN yesterday, bringing the death toll of the two-day severe weather outbreak to eleven. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri yesterday morning, injuring 33 people. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theaters–Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. The Branson Landing on Lake Taneycomo and the Veterans Memorial Museum were also heavily damaged. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. An EF-2 tornado also hit the small town of Harveyville, Kansas (population 275), twenty miles southwest of Topeka, at 9:03 pm Wednesday night. The tornado destroyed 40 – 60% of the structures and injured twelve, three critically. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions of dollars, and could add up to be the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S.

Figure 1. Damage in Branson, Missouri after yesterday’s tornado. Image credit: BransonRecovery Facebook page.

Yesterday’s tornado outbreak’s place in history
Yesterday was the deadliest day for U.S. tornadoes since May 24, 2011, when 18 people died in a Midwest tornado outbreak–part of the five-day outbreak that brought the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado, which killed 158 people and injured 1150. The preliminary tornado total from February 28 – 29 of 2012 is 30, making it the largest February tornado outbreak since February 17 – 18, 2008, when 31 twisters touched down. Yesterday’s Harrisburg, Illinois tornado was the deadliest February tornado since the February 10, 2009 EF-4 twisterthat struck Southern Oklahoma near Ardmore, killing eight. The deadliest February tornado in recorded history occurred on February 21, 1971, when an F-4 tornado ripped a 202-mile path through Mississippi, killing 58 people.

Figure 2. By analyzing both the rotational velocity of the storm systems (the spinning of tornadoes has high rotational velocity compared to the surrounding storms) and presence of hail, scientists at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory have developed a product that approximates the track of tornadoes, shown here for the February 29, 2012 storms. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Violent tornadoes in February: a rarity
Violent February tornadoes are rare in February. The Tornado History Project lists eighteen EF-4 and one EF-5 tornadoes in the U.S. during the month of February since 1950–an average of one violent February tornado every three years. Part of the reason for this is the lack of warm, unstable air so early in the year. However, this year’s unusually mild winter has led to ocean temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico that are approximately 1°C above average–among the top ten warmest values on record, going back to the 1800s. Averaged over the month of February, the highest sea surface temperatures on record in the Gulf between 20 – 30°N, 85 – 95°W occurred in 2002, when the waters were 1.34°C above average. Yesterday’s tornado outbreak was fueled, in part, by high instability created by unusually warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico due to the high water temperatures there.

Heavy snow hits Upper Midwest
The same storm system also brought the heaviest snows of the winter to portions of the Upper Midwest, which has received scant snowfall this winter. Widespread heavy snow fell in northern Wisconsin, where Mincqua recorded 18 inches. South Dakota, Central Minnesota, and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula also received snow amounts in excess of a foot. The storm also brought moderate snows to Northern New England, with southern Vermont receiving more than 8 inches. The latest NOAA Storm Summary has detailed storm total accumulation info.

Figure 3. Snowfall amounts for the 3-day period ending at 7 am local time Thursday, March 1, 2012. Image credit: NOAA Southern Region Headquarters.

New tornado outbreak likely on Friday
The storm system that brought yesterday’s tornadoes and snow has moved into Canada and New England, and the threat of severe weather is minimal today in the Midwest. However, a new storm system is expected to form over Missouri early Friday and track northeastward, unleashing a new tornado outbreak over Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Indiana, and Ohio. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in their “Moderate Risk” area for severe weather Friday, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. Consult ourSevere Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.

Figure 4. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Tennessee, Kentucky, and portions of surrounding states in their “Moderate Risk” area for severe weather on Friday. This is one level below the highest level of alert, “High Risk.”

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornado
Portlight is sending people into the Harrisburg, IL, area at this time in response to the tornado disaster there. They will be assessing needs there and surrounding areas. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the un-served, under-served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!

Jeff Masters

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