(TheWeatherSpace.com) — Tropical Storm Emily is still moving due west despite the projected path of northwest from NOAA and this might be the key to where it goes.
Right now the storm is moving west, just below the Dominican Republic. NOAA forecasts have the system starting out moving northwest and this will be what the mistake will be on their side.
The storm track on the National Hurricane Center’s track starts out going northwest when the storm is clearly moving west. This error means their track will need to be shifted west.
I’ve kept a western track and even my track is starting to move a bit west, putting Miami at risk for this system to get near or even impact plans over the weekend.
As of now my track has Emily going over the Western Haiti Peninsula in a west-northwest movement. After that it goes over Eastern-Central Cuba before exiting into the Bahamas.
The global models want to keep this well east of Florida but there are key ingredients the models may be missing in the calculations. The placement and strength of the upper level ridge is one of them.