But the Economy is Fine?

The Five Stages Of Denial When Skeptics Are Faced With Economic Collapse

By Brandon Smith

In light of the recent resurgence of inflation on top of increasingly rigged employments stats, declining manufacturing and stagnant wages I think it’s important to revisit a fundamental question: What does an economic collapse look like?

As I have said for years an economic collapse is NOT an event, it’s a process. When people think of a historic crisis they usually imagine something like the stock market crash of 1929 at the beginning of the Great Depression. However, there were numerous indicators and warning signs leading up to that crash that should have tipped people off. There were even a handful of economists that voiced concerns about impending instability, yet they were ignored.

Then, after the crash occurred numerous establishment economists denied that the system was in any real danger. They continually claimed that recovery was “right around the corner”, but the recovery never materialized. Instead, the crash spiraled onward for over a decade until world war erupted, largely because the Federal Reserve raised interest rates into economic weakness (a disaster they have openly admitted to causing and a policy they are instituting right now).

The point is, the mainstream “experts” are almost always wrong. The skeptics of collapse either ignore the evidence or they don’t comprehend the implications of events. They don’t want to believe that the economy is broken and that consequences are possible. They operate from the limited view of their own personal experience. For most of their lives the system has functioned without catastrophe so that must mean catastrophe is impossible. In truth, catastrophe has merely been deferred to a later date, not prevented.

Our present day predicament has not reached Great Depression levels yet. We are currently in a stagflationary phase similar to what happened in the 1970s. For those that think we have it bad now, the 70s were actually far worse.

House prices nearly TRIPLED from 1970 to 1980 (the median house price was $17,000 in 1970 compared to almost $50,000 in 1980). Annual inflation on most goods and services was in the double digits and the minimum wage was only $1.45 an hour. Unemployment was high and interest rates were eventually hiked to around 20% by 1981.

The point is that these breakdowns in financial structures happen slowly, and then all at once. Much like the build up of an avalanche. For those that know history the signs are easy to see. For those that don’t, they’ll assume that all is well even when the house is burning down around them.

Another factor that makes people oblivious to the danger is the moving of goalposts; they get used to poor economic conditions and the decline is entrenched as the “new normal.”  For example, in 2015 the average house rental was $1100.  Less than ten years later the average cost is $2150; that’s double the financial burden.  But today this price is considered par for the course.

Nothing gets better, the situation only ever gets worse, but since it happens over a period of many years (the process of collapse) the public largely accepts it and will even accuse those of us sounding the alarm of “doom mongering.”

As with any collapse there eventually comes a point of popular intolerance – That moment where people finally realize that the “doom mongers” were right all along and that the weight of the implosion is too much to refute. I believe we’re approaching that moment very quickly. In the meantime. Here are the five stages of denial that people go through before they admit that a fiscal calamity is upon them…

Stage 1: “I Don’t Know What The Conspiracy Theorists Are Talking About – I’m Doing Fine”

There’s an old saying from the Great Depression that goes something like this: “It’s only a depression for the people without jobs.”

If you weren’t a part of the 30% unemployed in the US at that time, then in your narrow world the Great Depression might not have seemed all that bad. In other words, people will ignore the sinking of the Titanic as long as they still have their own lifeboat.

I will say that this is a major problem in the midst of the stagflation crisis today, and it’s the root of what many Zennials are complaining about. In their minds, this is the worst economy in history of the world and they blame “boomers” for their pain. It’s really not (at least not yet), but it’s true that many “boomers” are going into the crisis with the advantage of time. They have had the time to build a lifeboat while Zennials have not.

It’s not about what’s fair, there’s no such thing as “fair” in economics. But older Americans need to realize that even if stagflation is not a crisis for them personally, it is indeed a crisis for younger people in particular. Any person still denying the reality of the collapse because “they’re doing fine” needs to shut up and take stock of the bigger picture.

Stage 2: “They’ve Been Talking About Collapse For Years And We’re Still Here”

A lot of people out there have childish notions of what a collapse is, mostly derived from Hollywood films and television. They imagine stock market mayhem, endless soup lines, mass starvation and even Mad Max-style destruction. When these kinds of things do happen it’s always at the END of the collapse process, not at the beginning. The former nation of Yugoslavia suffered through multiple inflation events before it finally exploded with balkanization and war. It didn’t happen overnight, but all the signs were there.

When analysts predict these events years ahead of time they are doing you a favor; they are giving you ample time to prepare. Unlike the banking elites and their proxies who only warn the public right before (or right after) the crisis hits a peak.

Believe it or not I still see deniers arguing that all is well today, even after massive stagflation, attempted nationwide medical tyranny, multiple regional wars around the globe that could trigger WWIII, constant civil unrest, etc. Is the threat of imminent death the only thing that will wake these people up to reality?

Stage 3: “Maybe Things Are Bad Now But The Crisis Is Transitory, It Will Be Over Soon”

This is the stage in which deniers finally accept that there is indeed some instability, but they cope with the issue by claiming the storm will quickly pass and there’s nothing to worry about. The thing is, they spent so much time trying to debunk the economists that were warning them they now fear being proven wrong more than they fear the crisis ahead. It’s a kind of mental sickness common to our culture – The absolute refusal of a large percentage of Americans to admit being wrong and moving on.

It’s okay to be wrong sometimes. It’s not okay to be in denial about it.

The claim that a collapse is “transitory” is a way for skeptics overwhelmed by facts and evidence to continue dismissing reality. If the economic decline doesn’t last very long then they never have to concede defeat to the “conspiracy theorists.”

Stage 4: “No One Saw The Crisis Coming”

I saw this argument thousands of times during the pandemic lockdowns and the initial inflation spike. There were so many people raging about the circumstances and a lot of them were the types of people that used to deny that anything out of the ordinary was going on. They started looking for scapegoats and they came up with the idea that there was no early warning.

If only someone had given them some kind of hint of what was about to happen, they would have prepared better, right?

The media and government officials tend to play into this stage of denial aggressively. In other words, this is the moment they assert that “No one saw this coming.” The event struck like lightning out of the blue. No one could have foreseen this outcome and there’s nothing anyone could have done about it.

Whenever I hear these arguments I’m reminded of the movie trend in the early 2000s of global disaster flicks. There’s always those scenes where the asteroid or the ocean wave or the tornado hits and we see thousands of people scurrying like ants, only to be crushed by a godlike force that they had no power to defend against. I never liked those movies, but I recognize that they play into a hidden element of fatalism in the human mind.

There is a strange mechanism in some people’s thinking that wants to believe they have no power to change their circumstances. They feel better assuming that the tides of fate are beyond their control and that there’s nothing they could have done differently. In reality, all they had to do was listen and think critically and they could have prepared accordingly. Their pain is the result of their own ignorance and ego.

Stage 5: “Everyone Saw The Crisis Coming”

Ah yes, the final stage of denial. This one is my favorite. It is the inevitable moment when skeptics fully concede that the economic collapse is a fact of life and then they claim they “saw it coming all along.” The inability for these people to admit they were wrong debases their ability to make informed decisions about the future.

They know a crisis is upon them and they’ll now pretend as if they knew it was going to happen. Therefore, all the “conspiracy theorists” that tried to warn them are not special or better informed than they are.

Of course, you’ll never see any evidence of these skeptics (and many mainstream economists) actually predicting anything.  You will see them predicting the opposite and attacking anyone that suggest they might be wrong.  One wonders why it’s so important for them to avoid giving credit where credit is due and learning from their mistakes, but when a person’s identity is so wrapped up in being the “expert,” the idea of completely fumbling the ball on the biggest economic disaster of their lifetime is too much to bear.

This article was written by Brandon Smith and originally published at Birch Gold Group

Sourced from Alt-Market.com

If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

from:    https://www.activistpost.com/2024/06/the-five-stages-of-denial-when-skeptics-are-faced-with-economic-collapse.html

Unemployment? Recession? Home Sales Down? No Problem.

They Know That They Are Killing The Economy, But They Are Doing It Anyway…

After everything that has already happened, it is hard to believe that Fed officials would continue to be so reckless.  On Wednesday, it was announced that rates would be raised by another 75 basis points

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for the third straight month as it struggles to bring scorching-hot inflation under control, a move that threatens to slow U.S. economic growth and exacerbate financial pain for millions of households and businesses.

The three-quarter percentage point hikes in June, July and September — the most aggressive series of increases since 1994 — underscore just how serious Fed officials are about tackling the inflation crisis after a string of alarming economic reports. Policymakers voted unanimously to approve the latest super-sized hike.

It was a unanimous vote.

There wasn’t even one dissenting voice.

Have they gone completely mad?

Wall Street certainly did not like this decision.  The Dow plunged hundreds of points immediately after it was announced…

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 522.45 points, or 1.7%, to close at 30,183.78. The S&P 500 shed 1.71% to 3,789.93, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 1.79% to 11,220.19.

The S&P ended Wednesday’s session down more than 10% in the past month and 21% off its 52-week high. Even before the rate decision, stocks were pricing in an aggressive tightening campaign by the Fed that could tip the economy into a recession.

For ages, the Fed coddled the financial markets, but now it is almost as if they don’t even care anymore.

Personally, I am far more concerned about what will happen to ordinary hard working Americans in the months ahead.  Even Jerome Powell is admitting that “an increase in unemployment” is likely because of what the Fed is doing…

“I think there’s a very high likelihood we will have a period of … much lower growth and it could give rise to an increase in unemployment,” he said.

Will that mean a recession?

“No one knows whether that process will lead to a recession or how significant a recession it will be,” Powell said. “I don’t know the odds.”

Actually, we are in a recession right now.

And Powell and his minions just made things a whole lot worse.

Even Democrats understand this.  After the rate hike was announced, Senator Elizabeth Warren went on Twitter and warned that “millions of Americans” could soon lose their jobs…

.@federalreserve’s Chair Powell just announced another extreme interest rate hike while forecasting higher unemployment. I’ve been warning that Chair Powell’s Fed would throw millions of Americans out of work — and I fear he’s already on the path to doing so.

This is one of the rare occasions when Elizabeth Warren is right on target.

As I have been documenting on my website for weeks, large numbers of Americans have already been getting laid off.

In fact, things are already so bad that even Facebook is trimming their numbers

As growth stalls and competition intensifies, Facebook parent Meta has begun quietly cutting staff by reorganizing departments, while giving ‘reorganized’ employees a narrow window to apply for other roles within the company, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing current and former managers familiar with the matter.

By shuffling people around, the company achieves staffing cuts “while forestalling the mass issuance of pink slips.”

So why would the Fed choose to raise rates when layoffs are already beginning to spike?

Higher rates are also having a devastating impact on the housing market.

This week, we learned that sales of existing homes have now fallen for seven months in a row

Home sales declined for the seventh month in a row in August as higher mortgage rates and stubbornly high prices pushed prospective buyers out of the market.

Sales of existing homes — which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — were down 19.9% from a year ago and down 0.4% from July, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors.

Someone should start putting “Jerome Powell did this” stickers on for sale signs all over the nation.

Because this didn’t have to happen.

Now the housing market is already in a “deep recession”, and the Fed just keeps making things even worse…

The prolonged downturn in confidence shows the housing market has been “in a tailspin for the whole of this year,” according to Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson.

“Activity tracks mortgage applications with a lag, and the early September numbers are grim, even before the full hit from the rebound in mortgage rates in recent weeks works through,” Shepherdson said in a note to clients on Monday.

“In short, the housing market is in a deep recession, which is already hammering homebuilders and will soon depress housing-related retail sales,” he added.

The Fed seems determined to kill the economy.

But why?

Why would they do this?

One analyst that was just quoted by Fox Business is warning that “times are going to get tougher from here”…

“With the new rate projections, the Fed is engineering a hard landing — a soft landing is almost out of the question,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist of Principal Global Investors. “Powell’s admission that there will be below-trend growth for a period should be translated as central bank speak for ‘recession.’ Times are going to get tougher from here.”

Yes, times are definitely going to get tougher from here.

In fact, we are eventually headed for a meltdown of epic proportions.

But instead of working to prevent a historic crisis, the Federal Reserve is actually encouraging one.

The American people deserve some answers, because there is something about all of this that really stinks.

They Know That They Are Killing The Economy, But They Are Doing It Anyway…

Some Market News

RED ALERT — Get ready for a ‘severe fall’ in the stock market, HSBC says

red warnings flare England fans in Lille, France, in June. Wolfgang Rattay/Reuters

HSBC’s technical-analysis team has thrown up the ultimate warning signal.

In a note to clients released Wednesday, Murray Gunn, the head of technical analysis for HSBC, said he had become on “RED ALERT” for an imminent sell-off in stocks given the price action over the past few weeks.

Gunn uses a type of technical analysis called the Elliott Wave Principle, which tracks alternating patterns in the stock market to discern investors’ behavior and possible next moves.

In late September, Gunn said the stock market’s moves looked eerily similar to those just before the 1987 stock market crash. Citi’s Tom Fitzpatrick also highlighted the market’s similarities to the 1987 crash just a few days ago. On September 30, Gunn said stocks were under an “orange alert,” as they looked to him as if they had topped out.

And now, given the 200-point decline for the Dow on Tuesday, Gunn thinks the drop is here.

“With the US stock market selling off aggressively on 11 October, we now issue a RED ALERT,” Gunn said in the note. “The fall was broad-based and the Traders Index (TRIN) showed intense selling pressure as the market moved to the lows of the day. The VIX index, a barometer of nervousness, has been making a series of higher lows since August.”

Gunn said the selling would truly set in if the Dow Jones Industrial Average were to fall below 17,992 or if the S&P 500 were to dip under 2,116. The Dow closed at 18,128 on Tuesday, while the S&P settled at 2,136.

“As long as those levels remain intact, the bulls still have a slight hope,” Gunn said.

“But should those levels break and the markets close below (which now seems more likely), it would be a clear sign that the bears have taken over and are starting to feast. The possibility of a severe fall in the stock market is now very high.”

Watch out.

Screen Shot 2016 10 12 at 8.10.36 AM HSBC

from:    http://www.businessinsider.com/hsbc-red-alert-get-ready-for-a-severe-fall-in-the-stock-market-2016-10

Tough Economic Times

The Stock Market Crash Of 2016: Stocks Have Already Crashed In 6 Of The World’s 8 Largest Economies

June 17, 2016

Network-Earth-Continents-Public-DomainBy Michael Snyder

Over the past 12 months, stock market investors around the planet have lost trillions of dollars. Since this time last June, stocks have crashed in 6 of the world’s 8 largest economies, and stocks in the other two are down as well. The charts that you are about to see are absolutely stunning, and they are clear evidence that a new global financial crisis has already begun. Of course it is true that we are still in the early chapters of this new crisis and that there is much, much more damage to be done, but let us not minimize the carnage that we have already witnessed.

In general, there have been three major waves of financial panic over the past 12 months. Late last August we saw the biggest financial shaking since the financial crisis of 2008, then in January and February there was an even bigger shaking, and now a third “wave” has begun in June. Not all areas around the globe have been affected equally by each wave, but without a doubt this new financial crisis is a global phenomenon.

The charts that I am about to show you come from Trading Economics. It is an absolutely indispensable website that is packed full of useful data, and I encourage everyone to check it out.

Let’s talk about China first. The Chinese economy is the second largest on the entire planet, and since this time last year Chinese stocks are down an astounding 40 percent…

As things have started to unravel in China, the Chinese have been selling off U.S. debt and U.S. stocks like crazy. The following comes from Bloomberg…

(CHECK OUT LINK FOR CHARTS: http://www.activistpost.com/2016/06/the-stock-market-crash-of-2016-largest-economies.html)

For the past year, Chinese selling of Treasuries has vexed investors and served as a gauge of the health of the world’s second-largest economy.

The People’s Bank of China, owner of the world’s biggest foreign-exchange reserves, burnt through 20 percent of its war chest since 2014, dumping about $250 billion of U.S. government debt and using the funds to support the yuan and stem capital outflows.

While China’s sales of Treasuries have slowed, its holdings of U.S. equities are now showing steep declines.

Unfortunately for China, their economy just continues to slow down, and George Soros is so alarmed by this and a potential “Brexit” that he has been selling off stocks and buying enormous amounts of gold in anticipation of an even bigger global downturn.

Japan has the third largest economy in the world, and over the past year Japanese stocks are down a total of 26 percent from the peak…

Personally, I have been extremely alarmed by what has been happening in Japan lately. Japanese stocks were down almost 500 points last night, and overall the Nikkei is down a whopping 1,800 points so far in June.

Of course the Japanese economy as a whole is essentially a basket case at this point. For a detailed analysis of this, please see my previous article entitled “Watch Japan – For All Is Not Well In The Land Of The Rising Sun.”

Germany has the fourth largest economy in the world, and over the past year their stocks have fallen 19 percent from the peak of the market…

(GO TO: http://www.activistpost.com/2016/06/the-stock-market-crash-of-2016-largest-economies.html FOR CHART)

The key thing to watch for in Germany are serious troubles at their biggest bank. I wrote a long article about the slow-motion implosion of Deutsche Bank last month, and just this week Deutsche Bank stock hit an all-time low.

The fifth largest economy on the planet belongs to the United Kingdom, and since last June their stocks have fallen about 13 percent…

(LINK:  http://www.activistpost.com/2016/06/the-stock-market-crash-of-2016-largest-economies.html)

One week from today, the “Brexit” vote will be held in the UK, and if they vote to leave the EU that could have very serious economic and financial implications for them and for the rest of Europe as well.

France has the sixth largest economy in the world, and over the past year French stocks are down 20 percent from the peak of the market…

The French economy is really struggling these days, and we have not heard much about it in the U.S. media, but there have been tremendous riots in major cities in France in recent weeks.

The seventh largest economy on our planet belongs to India. Even though India is facing some very serious economic problems, their stocks are doing okay for the moment. Even though stocks in India are down over the past 12 months, we have not seen a major financial crisis over there just yet.

But there is definitely a major crisis in the eighth largest economy in the world. Italian stocks are down a staggering 32 percent from the peak of the market. That means approximately a third of all stock market wealth in Italy is already gone…

(LINK:  http://www.activistpost.com/2016/06/the-stock-market-crash-of-2016-largest-economies.html)

Earlier this year, I wrote about the horrifying collapse of the Italian banking system that has greatly accelerated since the start of 2016. It looks like virtually all of their big banks will ultimately need to be bailed out, and this threatens to become a far bigger crisis than the crisis in Greece ever was.

And let us not leave off the ninth largest economy in the world. Not too long ago, CNN ran an article entitled “Brazil: Economic collapse worse than feared.” So not only are they admitting that the ninth largest economy on the globe is collapsing, they are also admitting that it is even worse than what the experts had anticipated.

So did I leave anyone off the list?

Ah yes, I haven’t even addressed what has been going on in the United States yet.

U.S. stocks did crash last August, but then they recovered.

Then they crashed again in January, but then they recovered again.

Now U.S. stocks have been taking another tumble here in June, but we are being assured that there is nothing to worry about.

Meanwhile, the underlying numbers for the U.S. economy just continue to get worse and worse and worse.

Hopefully this article will clear a lot of things up. In this piece, I have presented undeniable evidence that a new global financial crisis has begun over the past 12 months. We have not seen global stock declines of this nature since the great financial crisis of 2008, but much worse is still to come.

I would love to be wrong about that last part.

It would be wonderful if the worst was now behind us and good times for the global financial system were ahead.

Unfortunately, every single indicator that I am watching is telling me just the opposite.

 

from:    http://www.activistpost.com/2016/06/the-stock-market-crash-of-2016-largest-economies.html

Economic Downturn

Wal-Mart’s Worst Stock Crash In 27 Years Is Another Sign That The Economy Is Rapidly Falling Apart

walmartBy Michael Snyder

Now that a major global recession has begun, you would expect major retailers like Wal-Mart to run into trouble as consumer spending dries up, and that is precisely what is happening.  On Wednesday, shares of Wal-Mart experienced their largest single day decline in 27 years after an extremely disappointing earnings projection was released.  The stock was down about 10 percent, which represented the biggest plunge since January 1988.  Over 21 billion dollars in shareholder wealth was wiped out on Wednesday, and this was just the continuation of a very bad year for Wal-Mart stockholders.  Overall, shares had already declined by 22 percent so far in 2015 before we even got to Wednesday.  Here is more on this stunning turn of events from Bloomberg

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. suffered its worst stock decline in more than 27 years after predicting a drop in annual profit, underscoring the giant retailer’s struggles to reignite growth.

Earnings will decrease 6 percent to 12 percent in fiscal 2017, which ends in January of that year, the Bentonville, Arkansas-based company said at its investor day on Wednesday. Analysts had estimated a gain of 4 percent on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

If it was just Wal-Mart that was having trouble, that would be bad enough.  But the truth is that signs that the U.S. economy has entered another major downturn are popping up all around us.  Just consider the following list of economic indicators that Graham Summers recently put out

The Fed has now kept interest rates at zero for 81 months.

This is the longest period in the history of the Fed’s existence, lasting longer than even the 1938-1942 period of ZIRP.

And the US economy is moving back into recession. Consider that…

1)   Industrial production fell five months straight in the first half of 2015. This has never happened outside of a recession.

2)   Merchant Wholesalers’ Sales are in recession territory.

3)   The Empire Manufacturing Survey is in recession territory.

4)   All four of the Fed’s September Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) readings (Philadelphia, New York, Richmond, and Kansas City) came in at readings of sub-zero. This usually happens when you are already 4-5 months into a recession. (H/T Bill Hester)

Another huge red flag is the fact that month after month fewer products are being shipped around the country compared to last year.

If less stuff is being shipped around by truck, rail and air, is it a sign that the economy is getting better or is it a sign that the economy is getting worse?

The answer, of course, is self-evident.  With that in mind, please read the following excerpt which comes from a recent article by Wolf Richter

It has been crummy all year: With the exception of January and February, the shipping volume has been lower year-over-year every month!

The index is broad. It tracks data from shippers, no matter what carrier they choose, whether truck, rail, or air, and includes carriers like FedEx and UPS.

Evidence keeps piling up in the most unpleasant manner that something isn’t quite right in the real economy. The world is now in an inexplicable slowdown – “inexplicable” for central bankers who’ve cut interest rates to zero or below zero years ago, and who’re still dousing some economies with QE even as governments are running up big deficits. And yet, despite seven years of this huge monetary and fiscal stimulus, the global economy is deteriorating.

Okay, so is there anyone out there that still believes that the U.S. economy is in good shape?

The Obama administration will probably not admit it for a very long time, but the truth is that the numbers very clearly tell us that we are in a recession.

Anybody out there, whether an “expert” or just someone you happen to know, that tells you that everything is just fine is either completely ignorant or they are purposely lying to you.

And just like in 2008, state and local governments are starting to get into tremendous financial trouble as the real economy sputters.  For example, the governor of Illinois has told reporters that “we are out of money now” and that pension fund payments will be delayed as a result…

Illinois will delay payments to its pension fund as a prolonged budget impasse causes a cash shortage, Comptroller Leslie Geissler Munger said.

The spending standoff between Republican Governor Bruce Rauner and Democratic legislative leaders has extended into its fourth month with no signs of ending. Munger said her office will postpone a $560 million retirement-fund payment next month, and may make the December contribution late.

“This decision is choosing the least of a number of bad options,” Munger told reporters in Chicago on Wednesday. “For all intents and purposes, we are out of money now.”

When these sorts of things started happening in 2008, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Bush administration went into full-blown denial mode.  They kept telling all of us not to worry and that everything would be okay, and that just made things worse in the end.

The same thing is happening now.  The Obama administration and the mainstream media keep talking about an “economic recovery” even in the face of numbers such as I have discussed in this article.

Perhaps things are going well for you personally at the moment, and that is great.  But now is not the time to buy lots of new toys.   Nor is it the time to accumulate more debt.

Instead, now is a time to position yourself for a period of difficulty that could stretch on for years.

The next recession is here, and it is going to grow progressively worse.

The wise will take heed and make preparations, but the foolish will just keep on doing what they have been doing until it is far too late.

Michael Snyder is a writer, speaker and activist who writes and edits his own blogs The American Dream and Economic Collapse Blog. Follow him on Twitter here.

from:    http://www.activistpost.com/2015/10/wal-marts-worst-stock-crash-in-27-years-is-another-sign-that-the-economy-is-rapidly-falling-apart.html

Number of Verbs & Nouns As Indicators of Stock Market Trends?

Fewer Verbs and Nouns in Financial Reporting Could Predict Stock Market Bubble, Study Shows

ScienceDaily (July 19, 2011) — When the language used by financial analysts and reporters becomes increasingly similar the stock market may be overheated, say scientists.

After examining 18,000 online articles published by the Financial Times, The New York Times, and the BBC, computer scientists have discovered that the verbs and nouns used by financial commentators converge in a ‘herd-like’ fashion in the lead up to a stock market bubble. Immediately afterwards, the language disperses.

The findings presented at the International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Barcelona, Spain, on July 19, 2011, show that the trends in the use of words by financial journalists correlate closely with changes in the leading stock indices.

“Our analysis shows that trends in the use of words by financial journalists correlate closely with changes in the leading stock indices — the DJI, the NIKKEI-225, and FTSE-100,” says Professor Mark Keane, Chair of Computer Science in University College Dublin, who was involved in the research.

to read more, go to:    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/07/110718101202.htm

Problems with the Dow

Why the Dow will end up plunging to 7,000

There are too many financial risks on the horizon that are being dismissed

By Douglas A. McIntyre
24/7 Wall St.
One theory of economics says that any market can return to a point where it has been in the past. The Great Recession was, by some measures as bad as the Great Depression. Unemployment was 3.6 percent in November 1966. It was at 4 percent in December 1999. There is no precedent for zero unemployment, but those two periods came close.

Recent movements in the stock market could repeat themselves as the economy lurches toward another recession. The DJIA fell to just below 6,630 on March 2, 2009. Back in October 2007, 17 months earlier, it briefly traded above 14,000. What happened? The most frequent answer is the recession that lasted from December 2007 until June 2009, a period determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, caused the collapse. The recession lasted 18 months, which made it the longest of any downturn since World War II.

The DJIA could drop below 7,000 again before the middle of next year, down from 12,000 where it trades now. The market fell over 50 percent last 2008 and 2009. A correction to 7,000 this time would be 42 percent.

to read more, go to: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43564461/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/