Pacific Northwest Snow

Bulk of the snow chances hits the Pacific Northwest overnight into Saturday

Published on November 18, 2011 9:30 am PT
– By TWS Senior Meteorologist
– Edited by Staff Editor

The Western U.S. is a tough spot to forecast for. Many news outlets five days ago (maybe even a week ago) called for a snow event in both Portland and Seattle, one of those being Accuweather. The thing about Accuweather is they never wait, they believe they can call an event and just ‘hope’ the model run was correct. They key here is to wait.( – A cold storm system is moving through the Pacific Northwest today, with the bulk of the cold air and moisture combined being tonight into Saturday across Tacoma.

Freezing levels seem to be hovering over 1,000 feet today across both Washington and Oregon with isolated flakes to 300 feet. During the overnight hours, a northeast wind will come into play for areas surrounding the county zones of Thurston and Pierce County.

What this will be doing is creating a convergence zone over both those counties. This will run with drier air in the lower levels to bring the snow level down below 300 feet by later tonight, into Saturday. This convergence zone will be an east to west orientating snow event, meaning it will not move up to Seattle, but stick over the two counties areas all night and into Saturday.

As for Portland, Oregon — the snow level will be around 1,000 feet overnight tonight into Saturday morning. There will be an offshore wind in this area as well but it is hard to say if snow will fall here. I’m going to say wet snow is possible, but nothing accumulating with the band that will move through overnight tonight and into Saturday morning.

Out of all the areas between Seattle and Portland, Tacoma, Washington will see the best chances of snowfall and Seattle coming in last for any chances. The main focus here is the convergence zone over KTCM.


Winter Weather Forecast fr/Storm Central

Welcome to Storm Central’s Winter Weather Forecast for the 2011-2012 Year. Now, Might I begin by saying this is going to be quite an active year just like last year. All aspects being in play have narrowed this down to another La Nina pattern for the United States. Now let me explain what the causes of La Nina would be:

La Nina: In the simplest terms La Nina is the warmer water in the Equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean. These situations of La Nina (Which means Girl in Spanish) can develop quickly. For example: We had a La Nina pattern for much of the Winter of 2010-2011 and into the spring time. This pattern, the La Nina effect, caused all the troubles with the Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreaks in both April 27-28 of April and the other Outbreak in May with the Joplin Tornado. Usually, La Nina creates a warmer type of pattern but as shown by last year this pattern can create negative impacts to the areas where their isn’t warmth. La Nina pattern affects other areas rather than the United States and can send negative positive impacts or negative impacts across the globe.

Since La Nina pattern is in effect once again, expect most of the same from last year to occur this year. Allot of the areas that were hit last year hard will once again be hit hard again.

The biggest player in all this would be the Greenland Blocking Pattern. The Greenland Block is the a big deal to the United States. It basically states if you get a Mild Winter with Little Snow to a Cold Winter with lots of snow. The Greenland High, Situated over Greenland affects Earth all the way around. Now When you have the greenland high in place, Jet Stream winds are forced over and around the high. With that can bring a sign of trouble for The United States if this plays out. Basically, the Pacific Jet Stream ushers in cold air from Alaska into Canada then can bring very cold air into the United States. With that, the Jet heads northward over the high and around it and into Europe where the chilly airmass could affect them two. Now remember, aside from Un Cut lows, the Pacific Jet Stream is where most of our seasonal and un seasonal Winter Storms come from. With that Greenland Blocking Pattern In affect, that would keep the warm air south and west in the United States and the cold air over the center, north and east in the United States. Keeping all that in mind, that means all the low’s would ride that Pacific Jet Stream. Not all go that south, some are un-cut and some do an Alberta Clipper style and go to the north with little moisture. But the ones that go south get moisture from the Gulf Of Mexico then ride northward are the dangerous storm complexes to watch as they dip far enough south, get moisture, then ride into the great lakes or Ohio Valley. These can produce Ice Storms to KY, AR,TN and blizzards to MO, IL, IN, OH and the whole East Coast.

Storm Central’s Forecast:
-Storm Central is forecasting the La Nina Pattern with a weak to moderate Greenland Block during the Winter. As other outlooks have been, they have more of a strong blocking which would send very cold air all the way south to the Gulf Coast along with Precipitation. Below is an example of a real life situation with the Greenland Blocking Pattern. As you can see if you enlarge the graphic by clicking it, you see the pacific jet being marked in Purple with the Greenland High being over Greenland Itself. The effects on this situation would be a moderate blocking which would only send the jet stream as far south as Tennesse. Based on this patter, The west stays warm and the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and whole East Coast stay very cold. Now this can move from side to side every week. That means just because your below the jet for that week and could be in the 4-’s with rain could mean you could be in the 30′s and snowing the next week. Some weeks, espically early winter when I forecast this to be way north with the core of cold staying North into Northern Midwest, you will see no action during this time. 
Effects on Weak/Moderate/Strong Greenland Blocking:
-Weak: Jet Stream stays to the north and the blocking is considered weak. Weak meaning the core of cold will stay to the north. This is the best time for Alberta Clippers to set down a good 4 inch snowfall in a day and be out of there. This is not a great lake producer as you need low pressures to move south of the lake to turn the winds off the lake therefore produce lake effect snowfall.

-Moderate: This Forecast for the blocking could be the worse out of all them for the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This would take any storm system south that has a good potential to pick up gulf moisture and then move northeastward and precipation. Depending on temperatures, this could be in the form of snow, rain, sleet, ice ect. Im sure everyone remebers the 2011 Blizzard or some call it the Ground Hog Day Blizzard of 2011. it took this type of path and gathered tons of moisture that moved northeast and dumped snow. Other factors caused the winds and we had a 20inch+ Blizzard for allot of areas. If this pattern takes shape we could see a repeat of the 2011 Blizzard. Now also this takes the core of cold air southward so portions of Missouri and Arkansas would be chilly two.

-Strong: This forecast is the worst for the South. This pattern would be a very strong blocking and would take systems south and then northeast again into KY, TN, WV and then into the East Coast with snow and ice. Very cold tempearures would reach all the way south to Missippi and Alabama. This realitively doesn’t occur for a long time with a long shot of cold air but the potential is their.
Now, as most of you know me I love to talk and I’m hitting 1100 words and I am not even at the good part yet. Now for the Forecast!

Storm Central is predicting a big year once again. This years winter will include both the Moderate and Weak Blocking Pattern with timing being forecast later. The La Nina pattern will be in full force this year.

there is much, much more, including monthly maps and charts.  To access this information, go to:

Cold Air Heading towards California

Cold storm system to slam California Thursday, to Southern California Friday

Published on November 2, 2011 12:55 pm PT
– By TWS Senior Meteorologist
– Edited by Staff Editor

( – A cold Winter-like storm will hit California on Thursday, starting in Northern California and heading into Southern California on Friday. This will provide low elevation snowfall in Northern California.

The storm will impact Northern California’s Interstate 5 with a few inches of snow and the Sierra Nevada Range over a foot. Drivers North of Sacramento driving toward Oregon on Interstate 5 should use extra caution with those several inches expected.

There will be cold air aloft with this one, enough for thunderstorms to form from the Bay area down into Southern California. The bay area will get it early Friday morning, Southern California later in the day on Friday.

The snow level in Southern California with this storm will be around 4,000 feet, lower in convective (thunderstorm) activity. There is a very good chance the Cajon and Gorman Pass will be affected with this snowfall.

Thunderstorms are likely from San Francisco to Southern California, strong damaging winds in the mountain and desert regions likely, blizzard conditions in the mountain areas, high surf, and heavy rainfall (small hail)


On the Northeast Weekend Storm’s Effect

Why Weekend Snow Was So Destructive

Wynne Parry, LiveScience Senior Writer
Date: 31 October 2011 Time: 04:00 PM ET


October Snowstorm from Space. This weekend's snowstorm set records.

Snowtober’s wrath, seen from space.
CREDIT: Snowtober’s wrath, seen from space.

The surprisingly early snowstorm that smacked the East Coast this weekend picked up energy after crossing the country, producing an “extreme precipitation event” with damaging effects magnified by the fact that leaves remained on the trees.

“In many cases, this storm is unprecedented,” said Chris Vaccaro, a spokesman for the National Weather Service.

The record-breaking storm set itself apart by dumping snow, measuring as deep as 32 inches (81 centimeters) in Peru, Mass., along a wide swath of the East Coast, from Virginia to Maine, at a time when conditions are usually too warm for snow.

“Usually a lot of these cities will see their first inch of snowfall in late November into December,” Vaccaro said. “This type of storm is several months ahead of schedule.”

Dozens of locations from Virginia to Maine set daily snowfall records on Oct. 29 and Oct. 30. New York’s Central Park recorded 2.9 inches (7.6 cm), the first time since record-keeping began in 1869 that an inch or more of snowfall has been recorded there during the month of October, according to the NWS.

Is global warming to blame? While it is difficult to connect a specific weather event to human-caused climate change, researchers have predicted that precipitation events, including snowstorms, will become more extreme, according to Vaccaro. [FAQ: Global Warming and Snowstorms]

“When you look at precipitation events becoming more extreme, this is an example of an extreme precipitation event,” he said.

Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the independent National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., got a little more specific.

Climate change likely increased the amount of snow by five to 10 percent, since the storm picked up moisture from the Atlantic Ocean, Trenberth said. The oceans have warmed, on average, about 1 degree F (0.6 degrees C) since the 70s, and warmer oceans means more moisture in the atmosphere to feed storms.

The storm that hit the East Coast was a re-energized version of one that hit the western part of the country almost a week earlier. Between Monday and Wednesday (Oct. 24 and Oct. 26), the high temperatures there dropped from 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius) to 32 degrees F (0 degrees C) with heavy snow in Denver, Colo., for example, Vaccaro said.

The storm traveled east across the country, tapping into moisture off the coast of North Carolina at Cape Hatteras to revive itself. Meanwhile, cold air traveling from a high-pressure area over southeastern Canada probably formed the foundation for a snowstorm, rather than a rainstorm, which would have been more typical this time of year. As the developing storm moved northeast off the mid-Atlantic coast and off the northeast coast, it continued to draw cold air southward, and drop record-breaking amounts of snow, he said.

Large storms like this, called Nor’easters, aren’t common this time of year, but even more unusual was the supply of cold air that helped produce the very heavy wet snow across the region, Vaccaro said.

The timing of the arrival of the storm compounded its effects, because heavy snow collected on tree branches with leaves still on them, causing them to break and knock down power lines. News reports this morning suggest about 2.5 million people were without power from the storm.

“A bad winter storm is a bad winter storm on its own, but when you combine the leaves on top of that it makes it much more severe,” said Elizabeth Matthews, spokeswoman for ConEdison, which provides electricity to most of New York City and Westchester County in New York.


Nor’easter on the Way

Nor’easter takes aim at the Eastern United States this week

Published on October 16, 2011 11:05 am PT
– By TWS Senior Meteorologist
– Signed by SEO Officer

( – The weather pattern is changing for the Eastern United States as a strong surface low should ride the area, providing gusty winds and pounding rainfall.

On the backside of the system, say in Minnesota and Wisconsin, we probably will see those areas get light snowfall, but the ground is still warm so accumulations or sustained accumulations will not be expected.

This is not a blizzard producing Nor’easter so areas in the Northeast due not have to worry about being buried in feet of snow like with deep-winter style Nor’easters.

Areas in the Southern Gulf States (including Florida) will need to be monitored for severe weather as tropical moisture from a developing system near the Yucatan streams northward to meet the surface low and frontal zone by Tuesday through Thursday of this week.


Winter Forecast fr/Storm Central

2011-2012 Winter Weather Forecast (NEW)

Posted: September 25, 2011 by Storm Central in Uncategorized


Storm Central is predicting a big year once again. This years winter will include both the Moderate and Weak Blocking Pattern with timing being forecast later. The La Nina pattern will be in full force this year.

Here are the Monthly Forecasts:
Important Key You Need To Know!

Precipitation Graphical Forecast: 
-Dark Green= Way Above Average Precipation
-Light Green= Above Average Precipation
-Gray= Average Precipitation
-Light Brown/Orange=Just Below Average Precipation
-Dark Brown=Way Below Precipitation

Temperatures Graphical Forecast:
-Dark Blue=Below Average Temperatures
-Light Blue=Just Below Average Temperatures
-Gray=Average Temperatures
-Light Brown/Orange=Just Above Average Temperatures
-Dark Brown= Way Above Average Temperatures 

 November^ (Precipitation)- November was a fairly east month to do with this years winter forecasts. The La Nina pattern will begin to get it’s act together greater starting in November. With the Greenland Blocking situation in November, Models consitanly to show weak blocking which would keep the cold air and moisture to the north where the Jet Stream is. That means most of the United States would be dry. Drier than a usual November in Texas and the South as November will not be providing relief to you guys down south. The Jet Stream would stretch into the upper North East so some areas would see rain but just above average rainfall. November is not looking like a major month for big winter storms but Alberta Clippers would produce precipitation to the North.

November (Below) Temperatures- Since the Blocking will be up north, Only those areas will see slightly below tempertures. Other areas to the south will see normal to way above average temperatures for the Month of November. The Southeast will contie to stay warm and areas that are not normally warm or average in November will be this year.

December ^ (Precipitation)- Oddly enough I am forecasting December to be allot like November. Cool pool only coming a bit farther south with the blocking to IL and some moisture to those areas. Texas and other areas will still be way below average with Tempatrues and so will California. As for Seattle the main machine begins to kick in for the rest of the Winter. Alberta Clippers will be the main threat for December with their little moisture.

December (Below) Temperatures- As you can see the cool pool is to the north and spreading just into the northern portions of the North East. Nebraska and Kansas will be above average and California and New Mexico will be Way Above Average for the Temperatures.

Way Above Average for the Temperatures.
January ^ (Precipitation)- This is where things begin to take a turn for the worse as the greenland block shifts to Moderate and the storms begin to move more southerly that could pick up moisture come the middle to end of January. That could spread snow into KY, IL, IN, OH and up the east coast come January. Clippers won’t be as big come January as mild to big storms will be more of an inportance. We could see 1 or 2 blizzards or big storms out of this pattern that could dump snow on areas that are not used to it. As for the West it will stay dry and so will the south as this pattern will not bring a huge amount of moisture to the south or the west.

January (Below) Temperatures- With this pattern comes the cold weather which could very well be strong in Wisconsin and Minnesota along with New York State and Portions of the North East. As for the middle of the Country, Normal to just below depending on your location. All depends on this moderate blocking I am expecting in January. West will stay warm and at times very warm.

February ^ (Precipitation)- This is when I am expecting to get hit with a rock so to speak with system after system. Still a moderate blocking pattern so the precipation train will as followed through the center of the country. A big point to notice in Feburay as Wisconsin and Minnesota will be just below average for Febuary. I am forecasting the major storms to stay south of their and the clippers will be sporadic.  West will contuie to be warm but a little more precipation with the more active moderate blocking pattern. Note how Texas could get some precipation from the southerly storm tracks that choose to make a run and grab mositure and pull northward. This would be the month where many big storms could be an affect to the country from Iowa to as far south as Tennesse with Wintery Precipitation.

February (Below) Temperatures- February will also be the most extreme month for cold tempartures as the cool pool with be a bit farther south. Chicago will be cold from Late January to Feburary. Cool air could even get into MS and AL as a brief spell of a Strong Blocking Pattern could take effect and send some coolrer than average temperatures or just around average to those areas. West will stay warm as the block will have virtully no affect on them.

Overall Storm Central Winter Forecast (For the Ones that Don’t Like to Read) :) 
The above is official to Storm Central along with all the other outlook graphics. Note the key on the side, it’s very basic. Let me do some more explaining.
-Dark Blue: South and North Dakota as well as the U.P. Of Michigan along with other areas will be very cold this winter. Snow will be a big deal come December and January but should lay off a bit over February when storm tracks should stay south or a stray one could go northward. 
-Light Blue: Looks like the worst of winter could actually be in this area at one point in time as that will be the average area per month for the Storm Tracks. A few Blizzards and big storms could affect these areas in light blue that could produce massive storm fall precipitation all the way to the East Coast. Temperatures will be from average to just below average for most of these areas through the months of November through February (Check Monthly Forecast Above).
-Red: Ice Storms could make an impact to these areas as the block will shift south. Snowfall could also occur if location is cold enough.
-Light Brown/Orange: Above average winter for most of these areas as well as below average precipitation (Depends on month). 
-Dark Brown: A really dry and warm winter for you. 

Overall: This winter will be a harsh one. One that will be a cold one for some areas or could be a warm one in others.

to read more and see more maps, go  to:

New Zealand Snow – Hints of Winter to Come?

Northern New Zealand shut down in the first snowfall in 40 years

Published on August 16, 2011 4:15 am PT
– By Jim Duran – Writer
– Article Editor and Approved – Warren Miller

No larger image

( — Let us move out of the United States to down South. New Zealand’s Northern Island has flights grounded, roads closed, and power outages in the first snowfall in 40 years.

Blizzards hit the South Island before moving northward into the more populated North Island.

“This is the first snowfall in over 40 years for this region,” said TheWeatherSpace Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin. “Looking at the upper air charts this cold spell will last for another couple of days, till around Wednesday night.”

Christchurch, an area plagued by major earthquakes in the last year, was among the populated zones to be affected by the snowfall.

“Usually rare events around the world such as this one and the new tropical storm record (article here) means that an usual pattern will hit this Winter across the world not seen in around 50 years,” said Martin.

to read more, go to: