Dr, Masters on Tropical Activity

urricane Irene Weakens on its Approach to North Carolina
Posted by: JeffMasters, 7:58 AM GMT on August 27, 2011 +3
As of 300AM EDT, Hurricane Irene was located at 33.7N, 76.5W, 60 miles south of Cape Lookout. It was moving north-northeast at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, making it a Category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Irene has a minimum central pressure of 952 mb.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the US Atlantic coast from the Little River inlet in North Carolina to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts. Tornado watches are also in effect for the North Carolina/Virginia/Maryland coast. Figure 1 shows the hurricane, tropical storm, and tornado watches and warnings for Irene. Remember, a hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected, and tropical storm force winds (greater than 34 mph) will occur within 36 hours. Tropical storm warning means that tropical storm force winds are expected in the next 36 hours, but hurricane conditions are not. A tropical storm watch means tropical storm force winds are possible within 48 hours.

Thoughts on Irene

I am getting the sense that Irene has plenty more surprises in store for all.  This is not a time to take her trajectory as set in stone.  Even though the eye has seemingly come apart, there is something within the energies of this system that hold the unexpected.  Whereas complacency is often warranted in the face of expert opinion and past history, this is not a time for complacency.  And this is true on all levels.

Be aware and listen to your intuition in these times.  But do not second guess your intuition.  Expectation and habit are powerful seducers.  Know where you stand as these days progress.


Storms and Irene for the East Coast

First severe weather on Thursday, then Irene for the Mid-Atlantic to Northeast

Published on August 24, 2011 10:55 pm PT
– By Kevin Martin – Senior Meteorologist
– Article Editor and Approved – Ron Jackson

No larger image

(TheWeatherSpace.com) — A frontal zone will come into the Northeastern USA down through the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon and evening.

This front will bring severe weather with it. Shear values suggest an outlining tornado threat within it and I am watching any need to issue a tornado product but will keep the chances lower for strong tornadoes due to some mid/upper level dynamics that will be lacking.

Still, the main threats will be large hail and damaging winds across the area. TheWeatherSpace.com is monitoring the area and will update on Thursday morning.

Hurricane Irene will hit the Mid-Atlantic to Northeastern USA coast and TWS projections for several days have been farther west than both models and NOAA. This needs to be taken seriously as I issued a Hurricane  Watch on Wednesday morning and the details can be found by Clicking here.


Magic Hurricane Date?

Hurricane Irene Affirms ‘Magic’ Hurricane Date

by Brett Israel
Date: 23 August 2011 Time: 06:55 PM ET
Hurricane Irene as a Category 2 hurricane on Aug. 23.
Hurricane Irene as a Category 2 hurricane on Aug. 23.

Hurricane watchers circle Aug. 20 on their calendars every year. This is the “magic” date when hurricane season seems to kick into high gear.

Like clockwork, Hurricane Irene — the Atlantic’s first hurricane of 2011 — was born on Aug. 22, later strengthening to a Category 2 hurricane. Last year was another good example of an active storm season ramping up after Aug. 20. All of the 2010’s major hurricanes (those of Category 3 or higher) formed after Aug. 20, starting with Danielle on Aug. 21.

Aug. 20 seems to be special because around this time, the air and ocean are in just the right state to foster and feed the monster storms. In climate-speak, this time of year is when vertical shear (a change in wind directions with height) in the atmosphere is low enough and sea surface temperatures are warm enough to create big storms.

to read more, go to:    http://www.livescience.com/15717-hurricane-irene-august-20.html

Update on Irene

urricane Irene Approaches the Bahamas
Posted by: JeffMasters, 7:42 AM GMT on August 24, 2011 +9
As of 2AM EDT, Hurricane Irene was located at 21.3N, 72.6W, 400 miles southeast of Nassau. It was moving west-northwest at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, making it a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Irene has a minimum central pressure of 966 mb. Hurricane warnings have been issued for all of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the Dominican Republic border.

Satellite Views
Figure 1 shows that Irene has a large eye visible in infrared imagery, (26 miles across accoring to a report from the Hurricane Hunters at 130AM) with well-defined outflow cirrus bands. Tuesday evening, TRMM, NASA’s tropical research satellite, flew directly overhead Irene, getting a radar scan of the storm using it’s downward pointing radar, shown in Figure 2. It is immediately apparent that Irene has well-developed bands of rain showers, with strong storms present in the eyewall.

Figure 1 IR satellite view of Irene taken at 113AM EDT, August 23, 2011

More on Irene

Hurricane Irene upgraded to Category Two, TWS projects Category Four in the Bahamas and U.S. Coast

Published on August 22, 2011 5:35 pm PT
– By Jim Duran – Writer
– Article Editor and Approved – Warren Miller

(TheWeatherSpace.com) — Aircraft from NOAA has found 100 mph sustained winds in Irene and TWS Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin says this will be a Category Three within the next 24 hours.
“I finally have produced an intensity map and will be conservative with a max of Category 4 in-which The Bahamas will see this damaging hurricane on up to my landfall point between Myrtle Beach, South Carolina and Wilmington, North Carolina.” said Martin.

Hurricane Irene is strengthening faster than projections as it moves into warmer waters and misses the Dominican Republic’s 10,000 foot peaks.

Martin says in his latest forecast video that it could end up going to a Category Five but that is not going to be projected for another 24 hours.

All interests from Florida to New England should keep an eye on future updates.

to read more and see the video, go to:    http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/TWS-08_22_2011_irenecattwo.html

Irene Set to Ascend the Coast

Long range tracking of Irene has the Carolinas as a landfall point, then New York

Published on August 22, 2011 6:10 am PT
– By Jim Duran – Writer
– Article Editor and Approved – Warren Miller

Click for 8/20/11 Update map

(TheWeatherSpace.com) — Confidence is growing stronger on a landfall point with Hurricane Irene as it leaves Puerto Rico.

It was around this time where TheWeatherSpace.com Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin went for where Hurricane Earl would be, closer to the North Carolina coast than models had shown.

Now, Martin has released his long range track given where Irene is now and says this is going to be a Major Hurricane.

“The storm will be deadly, likely hitting between Myrtle Beach, South Carolina and Wilmington, North Carolina before heading inland across North Carolina and then hitting Long Island, New York down the line,” said Martin. “The storm is finding a weakness in the ridge with the trough in the area and this is why I am giving it such a sharp northward turn.”

If Martin’s track is correct, Hurricane Irene will be similar to Hurricane Floyd in 1999.

Everyone in the Bahamas needs to prepare now for Hurricane conditions as well as up the Southeastern U.S. coast.

The system will affect more than the coast, it should have Hurricane force winds inland as well when it hits land. Martin’s path brings this to New York as a dying, but still strong storm system.


Well, Hello, Irene

Future track of Irene consistent into Florida for several days, video included

Published on August 20, 2011 1:25 pm PT
– By Kevin Martin – Senior Meteorologist
– Article Editor and Approved – Warren Miller

Click for 8/20/11 Update map

(TheWeatherSpace.com) — A system with a very wide counter-clockwise rotation is continuing to intensify as it moves toward the Caribbean.

This system; Invest 97, will likely be named Irene and cause problems in the medium term forecast. The system will move south of Puerto Rico and head close to the Dominican Republic and Haiti zones.

Because my tracking has been consistent for three days for a pincenter like left-hand hook into Southwestern Florida have decided to make a forecast video here at TWS and you can view it below this article. 

to read more and check out the video, go to:    http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/TWS-08_20_2011_futureirenevideo.html