Active 2013 Hurricane Season Predicted

Tornadoes Were Just the Beginning. This Hurricane Season Is Going to be Stormy

By May 24, 20136 Comments
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Photo by NASA via Getty ImagesA satellite image of Hurricane Sandy as it approached the East Coast last year

The residents of Moore, Oklahoma are still cleaning up from the EF5 tornado that tore through their town on May 20. 24 people died in the twisters, and thousands of homes and buildings were damaged or destroyed. The total bill may come in at over $2 billion, which would make the Moore tornado the most expensive in American history.

So this may not be the best time, but the Moore tornado almost surely won’t be the last billion-dollar weather the U.S. faces in 2013. On Thursday the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its annual outlook on the summer Atlantic hurricane season—and it is not good. Technically it will be “active or extremely active,” which is fine if you’re talking about a workout session, and less good if you’re projecting how many potentially devastating tropical storms will hit the U.S. mainland.

Altogether NOAA predicts a 70% likelihood that 13 to 20 named storms—which have winds that sustain at 39 mph or higher—will occur, of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds higher than 74 mph). Of those three to six may become major hurricanes, which means Category 3 to 5, with winds above 11 mph. That’s all well above the average for an Atlantic hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to the end of November.

Why will this summer potentially be so stormy? For one, an atmospheric climate pattern, including a strong African monsoon, that’s been ongoing since 1995 will help supercharge the atmosphere for tropical storms. Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea will lead to more of the wet, hot air that provides the fuel for hurricanes. And there is no El Nino—the alternating climate pattern that means unusually warm sea temperatures—which would usually suppress the formation of hurricanes.

It’s important to remember that NOAA is only predicting whether or not hurricanes and tropical storms will develop—not whether they will make landfall like Superstorm Sandy did last fall. Only three of the 19 named storms that formed in the Atlantic last year made enough of an impact on the U.S. to cause any real damage. Most storms form in the Atlantic and never leave. It’s not just the strength of a storm that makes it dangerous—it’s location.

Superstorm Sandy made that clear. By the time storm made landfall on the East Coast, it had actually weakened to the point that it was barely a hurricane at all, though it was an unusually massive and wet storm. Had it spun back out to sea, we never would have remembered its name. Instead, though, Sandy tore through the most populated and expensive property in the U.S., flooding parts of New York City and causing some $65 billion in damage. We can only imagine what kind of destruction it would have caused had Sandy been an even stronger storm.

(VIDEO: The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season in 4.5 Minutes)

There’s no way of knowing how many of the storms to come this summer will indeed make landfall, but it stands to reason that the more storms that form, the greater the chance one will eventually end up in our backyard. According to NOAA, billion-dollar disasters are increasing in the U.S. at a rate of about 4.8% a year—there were 11 just last year. That’s mostly a result of economic growth—as the country gets richer, even with inflation, any weather disaster that disrupt the economy will cost more. But climate change is likely playing a role as well—in the case of hurricanes, warming temperatures seem to make storms stronger, and rising sea levels increase the threat of coastal flooding.

In any case, the growing danger from extreme weather just underlines the need to invest in forecasting, preparation and adaptation, as acting NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan said:

With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are prepared and ready ahead of time.” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA acting administrator. “As we saw first-hand with Sandy, it’s important to remember that tropical storm and hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline. Strong winds, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes often threaten inland areas far from where the storm first makes landfall.

Of course, if you really want to worry, remember that last year NOAA predict that the Atlantic hurricane season would be just a little above normal. It ended up being considerably more active. But there’s one thing we can be sure of—there won’t be another Hurricane Sandy. That name has been retired.

Read more: http://science.time.com/2013/05/24/tornadoes-were-just-the-beginning-this-hurricane-season-is-going-to-be-stormy/#ixzz2UDvCa8hJ

The South Atlantic Anomaly

Has The Magnetic Pole Reversal Already Begun? South Atlantic Anomaly Could be First Evidence – Part I
2005 10 10

By Mitch Battros | ECTV Newsletter


(The Van Allen Belts) Image source: click here

In my last two interviews, one with Dr. Peter Olson, Geophysicist from Johns Hopkins University, and Dr. Nicola Scafetta, Applied Physicist from Duke University has sparked my curiosity to apply an additional direction to my published “Equation”.

Still, the Sun is no doubt the origin of all interactive play. (at least in our solar system, but this will be explained in my book “Cosmic Rain” due out late spring.). The Sun is the triggering mechanism for a causal chain reaction to what happens on our home planet. One might say for all planets…in our solar system. What I have been learning lately is what slower acting, but perhaps far more powerful effect the Sun has on the Earth’s core. What we all agree upon (myself and my distinguished guest Dr. Olson and Dr. Scafetta) is the Sun is the primary cause for our climate and weather. It is pronounced and almost instantly in active effects. But what is going on below is far more powerful but disguises in a stealthy slow moving mannerism. The old story of the frog in the slowly heating pot comes to mind.

Although most of our scientific equipment is pointed towards the sky (satellites, telescopes etc,) to measure the Sun’s activity and its effect on our magnetic field, ionosphere, stratosphere, and as of late our “weather” (see equation), not much has been disclosed or known about what lies beneath our feet. So lets take a closer look.

Equation: 
Sunspots => Solar Flares => Magnetic Field Shift => Shifting Ocean and Jet Stream Currents => Extreme Weather and Human Disruption

In very much the same way as lightning strikes, so does the Earth’s highly charged core. Did you know when we think we see a lightning bolt hitting Earth; it is actually met with a matching bolt from the ground shooting upward? That’s’ right. A lightning bolt rises from the ground and meets a lightning bolt from the sky up to several hundred feet in the air. With this understanding, and upon Dr. Olson’s studies of the Earth’s core, mantle and crust, I am suggesting the solar flares, CME’s, and various space emitted charged particles, having a similar “reverse charge” in the same manner as lightning bolts. More on this later, but first let’s take a look at what is the “South Atlantic Anomaly”.

South Atlantic Anomaly
Earth is surrounded by a close-to-spherical magnetic field, the magnetosphere. According to what we know today, it is being generated by dynamo action in the Earth’s interior where conducting liquid metals are kept in motion by the forces of convection (heat exchange), coriolis, and gravitation, and just as the charged windings in the coil of a dynamo generate a magnetic field when moved, these masses create the Earth’s magnetic field. Without it, our compasses wouldn’t work, there would be no northern lights (auroras), and it protects us from space radiation by deflecting high energy particles from deep space or by capturing them in the so-called Van Allen Belts. Of these, discovered by the first US satellite, Explorer 1, in 1958, there are two, one closer, the other farther away, and both surround the Earth like a doughnut.

Unfortunately, at a certain location over the South Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of Brazil, the shielding effect of the magnetosphere is not quite spherical but shows an unusual distortion, which scientists explain as a result of the eccentric displacement of the center of the magnetic field from the geographical center of the Earth (by 280 miles) as well as the displacement between the magnetic and geographic poles of Earth. This is to say Magnetic North is not consistent with Geographical North. At times this area becomes very unstable and “bounces” kilometers apart. But there is more to this “unpredictable” monolithic anomaly than many in the science community had ever known…until now.

Article from: ECTV Newsletter

from:    http://www.redicecreations.com/news/2005/10oct/poleshift1.html

 

Dr. Jeff Master’s Review of 2011 Hurricane Season

Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:08 PM GMT on November 28, 2011 +16
Wednesday marks the final day of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, and it was another very odd year. The season featured a huge number of named storms–nineteen–tying 2011 with 2010, 1995, and 1887 as the 3rd busiest year for tropical storms. Only 2005 and 1933 had more named storms since record keeping began in 1851. However, 2011 had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. The year started out with eight consecutive tropical storms that failed to reach hurricane strength–the first time on record the Atlantic has seen that many storms in row not reach hurricane strength. We had a near-average average number of hurricanes in 2011–seven–meaning that only 37% of this year’s named storms made it to hurricane strength. Normally, 55 – 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. There were three major hurricanes in 2011, which is one above average, and the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)–a measure of the destructive potential of this season’s storms–was about 20% above average. The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic is no doubt at least partially responsible for 2011’s unusually high count of named storms, but near-average number of hurricanes and ACE. Both 2010 and 2011 had nineteen named storms, making it the second busiest 2-year period in the Atlantic behind 2004 – 2005. Even when one considers that 2 – 4 tropical storms from both 2010 and 2011 would likely have been missed before the advent of satellites, the tropical storm activity of 2010 – 2011 is still very remarkable (in 2011, Tropical Storm Franklin, Tropical Storm Jose, and the unnamed 19th tropical storm of September 1 would probably have been missed before satellite technology came along, since they were all weak, short-lived storms that did not impact land or shipping.)


FIgure 1. Tracks for the Atlantic tropical cyclones of 2011.

Another below-average hurricane season for the U.S.
For the second consecutive year, despite a near-record number of named storms in the Atlantic, the U.S. had far fewer strikes by tropical storms and hurricanes than average. Favorable steering currents steered most of the storms in 2010 and 2011 past Bermuda and out to sea. During 2010, only one tropical storm hit the U.S., despite a season with the 3rd highest number of named storms–nineteen. Only two named storms hit the U.S. in 2011: Tropical Storm Lee, which hit Louisiana with 60 mph winds, and Hurricane Irene, which hit North Carolina on August 27 with 85 mph winds, and made two additional landfalls in New Jersey and New York the next day. Tropical Storm Don hit Texas on July 29 as a tropical depression and did not count as a landfalling named storm, according to post analysis by NHC. Wind shear and dry air from the Texas drought made Don rapidly weaken before landfall on Padre Island National Seashore north of Brownsville. During the 15-year active hurricane period from 1995 – 2009, 33% of all named storms in the Atlantic hit the U.S., and 30% of all Atlantic hurricanes hit the U.S. at hurricane strength. The U.S. averaged seeing six named storms per year, with four of them being hurricanes and two being intense hurricanes. Thus, the landfall of only three named storms in a two-year period is a major departure from what happened the previous fifteen years. The past six years is the first six-year period without a major hurricane strike on the U.S. since 1861 – 1868. The last major hurricane to hit the U.S. was Category 3 Hurricane Wilma of October 2005. One caveat to keep in mind, though: Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav of 2008 both hit the U.S. as strong Category 2 hurricanes, and had central pressures characteristic of Category 3 hurricanes. Had these storms occurred more than 65 years ago, before the Hurricane Hunters, Ike and Gustav would likely have been classified as Category 3 hurricanes at landfall (assuming that few quality wind observations would have been available at landfall, which is usually the case.)


Figure 2. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak on August 25, 2011 during Hurricane Irene. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

Figure 3. The eye of Hurricane Irene as seen by hurricane hunter and wunderblogger LRandyB on August 24, 2011, when the hurricane was approaching the Bahama Islands.

The strongest, deadliest and longest-lived storms of 2011
The strongest hurricane of 2011 was Hurricane Ophelia, which peaked as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds and a central pressure of 940 mb on October 2, when it was just northeast of Bermuda. Ophelia hit Southeast Newfoundland as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds on October 3, but caused little damage. The strongest hurricane at landfall was Hurricane Irene, whose 120-mph eyewall winds raked Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, Cat Island, Eleuthera, and Abaco Island in the Bahamas. Wind gusts as high as 140 mph were reported in the Bahamas.The longest-lived storm of 2011 was Hurricane Phillipe, which lasted 15 days, from September 24 to October 8. The most damaging storm was Hurricane Irene, which caused an estimated $7.2 billion in damage from North Carolina to New England, according to re-insurance broker AON Benfield. Irene was also the deadliest storm of 2011, with 55 deaths in the Caribbean and U.S.

Figure 3. Pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecasts issued by seven major forecast groups. The average of these forecasts called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 150% of normal. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 120% of normal.

Pre-season hurricane forecasts did a decent job
The pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecasts issued by seven major forecast groups were generally decent. The average of these forecasts called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 150% of normal. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 120% of normal. Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State will be releasing their end-of-season verification and summary of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season on November 30.


Figure 4. Portlight volunteers at work in Pink Hill, North Carolina, after Hurricane Irene.

Portlight disaster relief efforts for 2011
My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, has posted a summary of their efforts during the hurricane season of 2011. Portlight mobilized in the wake of Hurricane Irene to help out in North Carolina, Delaware, and Maryland on cleanup efforts, food, and supply distribution. Portlight also provided financial assistance to survivors, including a commercial fisherwoman and single mother of two who lost her boat and home in the storm, after having been diagnosed with breast cancer two days before Irene struck. See the portlight blog for the full story; donations are always welcome.

Monthly Earth Changes Update fr/Aquarian Solutions

 

October 2011 will host extreme weather, volcanic eruptions, super jor quakes, hurricanes, severe cold fronts, hyper solar actvity, tsunamis, floods, perilous cyclones, sink holes, strong deluge of water, land and mudslides, extreme weather around the world
floods will continue along with droughts, still chances for dangerous tornadoes,while weather records will broken.
The month was actually kicked off with a New Moon in Libra on September 27th @ 11:09 AM UT
which continues to initiate major weather events from typhoons to hurricanes along with seismic and volcanic eruptions
Then on October 11th a fiery Full Moon in Aries @ 19 degrees on 7:06 PM PDT or 10:06 PM EDT leads to massive seismic and volcanic events.
Events will happen quickly after the Full Moon:
Mercury will enter Scorpio on Oct. 13th. the same day that the Sun meets Saturn in Libra bringing in cold winter weather
Venus already in Scorpio by Oct. 8th. will oppose Jupiter on October 14th. for major storms and seismic events
Then a double whammy with Mercury opposing Jupiter in Taurus on October 17th.
The month ends with the Scorpio New Moon on October 26th in the 4th degree of Scorpio occuring @ 12:56 PM PDT or 3:56 PM EDT –
for more, go to:    http://www.aquasoul.com/index2.html

Recent Extreme Earth Events

Disasters in US: An extreme and exhausting year

September 4, 2011 By SETH BORENSTEIN , AP Science Writer

Disasters in US: An extreme and exhausting year (AP)

In this May 25, 2011 file picture, a line of severe storms crosses the Mississippi River in Memphis, Tenn., passing by the Memphis Pyramid. The dark formation was reported a few minutes earlier as a tornado in West Memphis, Ark. Nature is pummeling the United States in 2011 with extremes. There have been more than 700 U.S. disaster and weather deaths. What’s happening, say experts, is mostly random chance or the bad luck of getting the wrong roll of the dice. However, there is something more to it, many of them say. Man-made global warming is loading the dice to increase our odds of getting the bad roll.

Unprecedented triple-digit heat and devastating drought. Deadly tornadoes leveling towns. Massive rivers overflowing. A billion-dollar blizzard. And now, unusual hurricane-caused flooding in Vermont.

If what’s falling from the sky isn’t enough, the ground shook in places that normally seem stable: Colorado and the entire East Coast. On Friday, a strong quake triggered brief tsunami warnings in Alaska. Arizona and New Mexico have broken records for wildfires.

Total weather losses top $35 billion, and that’s not counting , according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. There have been more than 700 U.S. disaster and weather deaths, most from the  this spring.

Last year, the world seemed to go wild with natural disasters in the deadliest year in a generation. But 2010 was bad globally, and the United States mostly was spared.

This year, while there have been devastating events elsewhere, such as the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, Australia’s flooding and a drought in Africa, it’s our turn to get smacked. Repeatedly.

“I’m hoping for a break. I’m tired of working this hard. This is ridiculous,” said Jeff Masters, a  who runs Weather Underground, a meteorology service that tracks strange and . “I’m not used to seeing all these extremes all at once in one year.”

The U.S. has had a record 10 weather catastrophes costing more than a billion dollars: five separate tornado outbreaks, two different major river floods in the Upper Midwest and the , drought in the Southwest and a blizzard that crippled the Midwest and Northeast, and Irene.

What’s happening, say experts, is mostly random chance or bad luck. But there is something more to it, many of them say. Man-made global warming is increasing the odds of getting a bad roll of the dice.

Sometimes the luck seemed downright freakish.

to read more, go to:    http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-09-disasters-extreme-exhausting-year.html