Tsunami Clouds in Alabama

Giant Tsunami-Shape Clouds Roll Across Alabama Sky

Natalie Wolchover, Life’s Little Mysteries Staff Writer
Date: 19 December 2011 Time: 02:12 PM ET
Clouds along the horizon in Birmingham, Ala., on Friday (Dec. 16). Credit: ABC 33/40 in Birmingham
Clouds along the horizon in Birmingham, Ala., on Friday (Dec. 16).
CREDIT: ABC 33/40 in Birmingham

For a morning, the sky looked like a surfer’s dream: A series of huge breaking waves lined the horizon in Birmingham, Ala., on Friday (Dec. 16), their crests surging forward in slow motion. Amazed Alabamans took photos of the clouds and sent them to their local weather station, wondering, “What are these tsunamis in the sky?”

Experts say the clouds were pristine examples of “Kelvin-Helmholtz waves.” Whether seen in the sky or in the ocean, this type of turbulence always forms when a fast-moving layer of fluid slides on top of a slower, thicker layer, dragging its surface.

Water waves, for example, form when the layer of fluid above them (i.e., the air) is moving faster than the layer of fluid below (i.e., the water). When the difference between the wind and water speed increases to a certain point, the waves “break” — their crests lurch forward — and they take on the telltale Kelvin-Helmholtz shape. [Astonishing Video Shows a Face in the Clouds]

According to Chris Walcek, a meteorologist at the Atmospheric Sciences Research Center at the State University of New York, Albany, fast-moving air high in the sky can drag the top of slow-moving, thick clouds underneath it in much the same way.

“In the pictures [of the Birmingham sky] there is probably a cold layer of air near the ground where the wind speed is probably low. That is why there is a cloud or fog in that layer,” Walcek told Life’s Little Mysteries, a sister site to LiveScience. “Over this cloudy, cold, slow-moving layer is probably a warmer and faster-moving layer of air.”

Most of the time, the difference in wind speed and temperature between two layers of the atmosphere is small, and so the fast-moving air on top “simply slides smoothly over the slower-moving air like a hockey puck sliding along an ice surface,” Walcek said. At the other extreme, if the wind-speed difference is too large, the interface between the two layers breaks down into random turbulence.

Kelvin-Helmholtz waves form when the difference in the temperature and wind speed of the two layers hits a sweet spot. “What [these pictures] show is air between these two atmospheric layers that is just very close to that threshold for turbulence, and mixing to mix the two layers together,” he said.

from:    http://www.livescience.com/17545-giant-tsunami-shape-clouds-roll-alabama-sky.html

Round Up Resistant Super Weeds

Monsanto Defeated by Super Weeds

Posted By Dr. Mercola | December 13 2011 | 24,456 views

By Dr. Mercola

Twenty-one weed species around the world are now resistant to glyphosate, up from zero in 1996 — the year Monsanto started marketing its genetically engineered Roundup Ready crops.

Glyphosate, now the world’s bestselling weed killer and the key ingredient in Monsanto’s Roundup herbicide, is emerging as one of the most dangerous Monsanto products to date, in part because super weeds are emerging at an alarming rate.

briefing by GM Freeze noted that in the United States, the worst-affected country (which is not surprising since the U.S. also leads the world in GM crop acreage), 13 resistant weed species cover more than 11 million acres, mostly those planted with Monsanto’s genetically modified (GM) soy, corn and cotton crops.

The weeds are not only making Monsanto’s promises that their GM crops would reduce pesticide use completely laughable — since farmers are being forced to use multiple, and more, pesticides to keep weeds in their GM crops under control — but also are turning out to be a very big thorn in Monsanto’s proverbial side; one that ironically might turn out to threaten the very GM crops that created them.

Investors Warned About Monsanto’s Super Weeds

As GM Freeze reported, one investment company is now advising its clients to sell Monsanto shares because of the company’s problems with weed resistance, which are arguably set to snowball even further out of control in the very near future. Monsanto’s competitors, biotech giants like Dow and Bayer CropScience, are chomping at the bit to take over where Monsanto has failed, and already have released GM seeds with tolerance to multiple herbicides designed to be used on their own or in rotation with Roundup Ready crops in a last-ditch attempt to delay resistance from developing.

(No word yet on how these companies intend to deal with the new generation of super weeds that will inevitably develop in response to the new herbicide cocktail … )

So this dark cloud’s silver lining is the fact that, with super weeds becoming an undeniable threat that can no longer be ignored, the powers that be may be forced to acknowledge that GM crops are not all they’ve been cracked up to be. And Monsanto is also being shaken to its core by the grand scope of this environmental catastrophe.

GM Freeze reported:

Monsanto is taking the problem of the rapid development of glyphosate resistance very seriously, as it represents a threat to their main sources of income.

… Monsanto has embarked on major changes in weed management in RR crops, which still includes the use of glyphosate on its own, but also in combination with other herbicides. This is increasing herbicide usage on these crops. So instead of the promised decrease in pesticide use on GM crops, the arrival of resistant weeds has resulted in herbicide use increasing on RR crops. Analysis of USDA data has found increases in herbicide use in all the crops where RR maize, cotton and soyabeans varieties dominate.

… Previous attempts to control resistant weeds by increasing the rate at which glyphosate is applied have proved unsuccessful, yet Monsanto appears to have no intention of taking responsibility for the failure of their technology.”

GM Crops Have Failed to Deliver … and That’s an Extreme Understatement

Herbicide tolerant (Roundup Ready) GM crops were supposed to control weeds and GM Bt crops were intended to control pests. Instead of controlling weeds and pests, GM crops have led to the emergence of super weeds and super pests

And despite claims that genetically modified organisms (GMOs) will lower the levels of chemicals (pesticides and herbicides) used, this clearly has not been the case. This is of great concern both because of the negative impacts of these chemicals on ecosystems and humans, and because there is the danger that increased chemical use will cause increasing numbers of pests and weeds to develop resistance, requiring even more chemicals in order to attempt to manage them.

According to Jeffrey Smith with the Institute for Responsible Technology, by 2004 farmers used an estimated 86 percent more herbicides on GM soy fields compared to non-GM fields. Unfortunately, Monsanto’s plan to circumvent the inevitable development of more superweeds is to douse fields with more and more chemicals.

The Institute of Science in Society reported:

“As Einstein famously quoted, ‘no problem can be solved with the same consciousness that created it.’ That is precisely what Monsanto is doing: advocating more and more herbicides to be used. New guidance published by the company to manage resistance includes:

  • The use of a cocktail of pesticides including 2,4-D, prior to sowing crop seeds
  • The production of GM seeds expressing tolerance to more than one pesticide. DuPont has already commercialised seeds tolerant to glyphosate and glufosinate. Monsanto has recently announced an agreement with the German pesticide and biotechnology company BASF to develop crops stacked with glyphosate and dicamba tolerant genes
  • The use of herbicides that remains active in the soil, killing any seedlings as they germinate, including sulfentrozone

The consequences of increasing herbicide use are likely to put the environment and people at further risk.”

Why Glyphosate is a Health and Environmental Disaster

Glyphosate is the world’s bestselling weed killer, and it’s found in more than 30 percent of all herbicides — an extremely disturbing scenario considering the data showing it to be an immense threat to human health and the environment.

GM expert Jeffrey Smith has reported that glyphosate promotes the formation of certain types of fungi that are dangerous to people and contaminate food and animal feed. One such fungi, the Fusarium fungus, has been linked to plague epidemics, cancer, infertility and animal diseases. Residues of Monsanto’s Roundup herbicide found in GM food and feed have also been linked to cell damage and death, even at very low levels. Researchers have also found it causes membrane and DNA damage, and inhibits cell respiration.

And in one animal study, rats given 1,000 mg/kg of glyphosate resulted in a 50 percent mortality rate, and skeletal alterations were observed in over 57 percent of fetuses!

Research published last year shows that glyphosate causes birth defects in frogs and chicken embryos at far lower levels than used in agricultural and garden applications.

The malformations primarily affected the:

  • Skull
  • Face
  • Midline and developing brain
  • Spinal cord

Other independent scientific research has also found that glyphosate causes:

Endocrine disruption DNA damage
Developmental toxicity Neurotoxicity
Reproductive toxicity Cancer
Liver Damage Kidney Damage

 

Many of these effects were apparent at much lower doses than the typical levels of pesticide residues found in food … Yet despite the evidence of widespread human exposure, which strongly suggests that the precautionary principle should be applied, regulators are turning a blind eye.

for more, go to:    http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2011/12/13/monsanto-defeated-by-super-weeds.aspx?e_cid=20111213_DNL_art_2

Tropical Storm Washi Hits the Phillipines

Tropical Storm Washi Slams Philippines Leaving Hundreds Dead

Tropical storm Washi swept across the Philippines last night leaving a least 430 dead and even more missing. The storm hit last night while many people were sleeping in their homes. 12 hours of continuous rain and wind pounded the islands overnight. Many river banks bursted causing big waves of water to slam into homes with the force of a truck while people slept overnight. The storm was only at tropical storm strength but the wind was not the killer in this storm. Rain on the mountain tops seeped into the ground causing some mountain slides and flash floods across the region. The death toll could reach as high as 700+ by the time all the damage is removed. The area is hit by 15+ typhoons every year but they usually tend to take a more northerly track then Washi did. Some reports have it that the flood waters got as high as 11 feet at the height of the storm. A lot of the population was able to escape to higher grounds and others fled to the northern islands before the storm made landfall. 20,000 soldiers have been deployed across the region trying desperately to find any survivors and recover any of the deceased. Floods swamped about 30% of  Iligan and about a dozen of outlying villages. More then ten thousand people were brought into shelters on higher ground. The storm dragged in warm pacific temperatures reaching up to 80 degrees in some parts around the impact area. In neighboring Taiwan temperatures are in the high 50′s and low 60′s instead of the Philippines high 70′s to mid 80′s. Although flood waters have receded since the height of the storm  it will still take a few days to a week until those rivers return back to a normal level. Most of the area remains without power and could not have any for the days to come.

from:    http://stormcentral1st.com/?p=4000

Earthquakes off Puerto Rico

2 moderate earthquakes in the coastal waters of Puerto Rico

Last update: December 17, 2011 at 11:58 pm by By 

arthquake overview : 2 moderate shallow earthquakes occurred at 2 AM just out the western Puerto Rico coast. The earthquakes were also felt as weak shaking in the Dominican Republic.

Felt reports from the greater epicenter area – image courtesy USGS

Update 13:48 UTC : The Red Sismica Puerto Rico is mentioning a max. VI MMI recorded in Mayaguez (strong shaking).  There are many reports of fallen objects like books, staues, hanging objects, etc. Many people mave mentioned a loud rumble.  The Agencia Estatal para el Manejo de Emergencias y Administración de Desastres (AEMEAD) has reported that no serious damage has occurred.

Update : The earthquake was also felt in the Dominican Republic.

Update : Since the first quake a number of aftershocks have been registered and we expect more to come

Update : NO damage has been reported so far. We will have to wait until daylight before this can be confirmed

Update : Max. intensity as reported by people near the epicenter was V (moderate shaking).

Update :  The earthquakes were very well felt by the people living all over the island of Puerto Rico

Update : people living at the western coast close to the epicenter had the impression that the quakes were more dangerous than measured.

Update : Luckily the epicenter was not below land, but approx. 20 km out in the Mona passage.

for more information and updates, go to:   http://earthquake-report.com/2011/12/17/2-moderate-earthquakes-in-the-coastal-waters-of-puerto-rico/

Fireball Over Toronto

Blazing meteor falls east of Toronto

CBC News

Posted: Dec 14, 2011 10:11 AM ET

Last Updated: Dec 14, 2011 11:01 AM ET

Ontario researchers want to hear from anyone who saw a basketball-sized fireball in the sky east of Toronto Monday night or has found fragments of the fallen meteorites.

Meteorites, meteors and asteroids

  • Meteorites are fragments of rock or metal that have landed on Earth after falling from space. They are usually pieces from a comet or asteroid orbiting the Sun.
  • Meteors are fireballs or “shooting stars” visible in the sky when a piece of space rock enters the Earth’s atmosphere. The friction heats the rock until it glows brightly.
  • Asteroids are bodies made of rock or metal that range in size from boulder-sized to nearly the size of a small moon or planet. Most of the asteroids in our solar system form part of the Asteroid Belt orbiting the sun between Mars and Jupiter.

 

The meteor, described as a “slow-moving fireball, estimated to be no bigger than a basketball,” was recorded at 6:04 p.m. ET Monday by six cameras that are part of the University of Western Ontario’s Southern Ontario Meteor Network, the university said in a news release. 

Researchers think it likely dropped meteorites ranging in size from one gram to hundreds of grams east of Selwyn, Ont., north of Peterborough, near the end of Upper Stony Lake, about 115 kilometres northeast of Toronto. They may have a total mass of up to a few kilograms.

While the meteor fell during the Geminid meteor shower, researchers said it wasn’t related to that event.

Because researchers tracked the meteor’s trajectory with their cameras, they can figure out where in our solar system it comes from. They say it is rare and valuable to be able to combine that information with an actual meteorite sample.

“Finding a meteorite from a fireball captured by video is equivalent to a planetary sample return mission,” said Peter Brown, director of the University of Western Ontario’s Centre for Planetary and Space Exploration, in a statement Wednesday.

P.O.V.

What would you do if you found a meteorite? Take our survey.

“Only about a dozen previous meteorite falls have had their orbits measured by cameras … so each new recovered meteorite is adding to our understanding of the formation and evolution of our own solar system.”

The video footage showed that the meteor first entered the atmosphere at an angle of 25 degrees from the horizontal, moving at 14 kilometres per second. It first became visible over Lake Erie, then moved toward the north-northeast and was visible until it reached an altitude of 31 kilometres, when it was just south of Selwyn.


Based on the path of the meteor, as tracked by a series of six cameras, meteorite fragments probably landed near Upper Stony Lake, a northeast of Peterborough, Ont. Click for a larger image. (Courtesy University of Western Ontario)

Landslide Risk fr/PNG Massive Earthquake

Massive but deep earthquake below Eastern Papua New Guinea – main concern : landslides

Last update: December 14, 2011 at 10:01 am by By 

Earthquake overview :A strong but very deep earthquake happened at 03:04 PM (15:04) below eastern Papua New Guinea. The depth of the earthquake will have weakened the shaking even just above the epicenter. Our main concern are possible landslides.

Update 14/12 – 09:55 UTC :   TJ Charlton, a person knowing the epicenter area very well, wrote a few minutes ago : Lots of legal and illegal gold mining in the Wau areaI am fearful of avalanches (ER : so are we) and some mine shafts collapsing…I was in Wau just a few months ago. Talk in Wau town (after a phone call) was that “trees were swaying from side to side” during the quake.  (ER : the good news is that the phone was still working)

Update : From James Daniell CATDAT database :
On 26th, February 1963, a M7.3 earthquake, 171km depth struck at -7.5, 146.2 (around 50km west of this epicenter), with only very minor damage reported and intensities of up to 7.
Other earthquakes to have hit the region have occurred in 2001 and 2010, although these are around 80km away, both being M6.2 and only causing minor damage. These were also shallower.
Generally PNG builds of materials that resist earthquakes well and it is unlikely that major damage occurred from this one.

Landscape in the greater area of the epicenter – picture courtesy Grant I. Tebbutt

Update : Mc Adam National park was at a relatively close distance from the epicenter (approx. 40 to 60 km).

Update : The closest settlements are Were Were, Winima, Kaisenik, Kwembu, Kudjeru and Wau

Update : The greater area of the epicenter has almost NO roads but a lot of small settlements . Based on our own experience with PNG earthquakes we do not expect to receive a lot of additional information from the inland settlements. They have NO phone lines (neither fixed or cell) and can mostly be reached by trails or dirt roads only.

Update : A 7.3 earthquake who occurred in 1987 at a distance of 193 km from the current epicenter had NO shaking deaths (focal depth unknown)

Update : USGS is expecting that 506,000 people will have experienced a VI (strong) MMI shaking, 973,000 people a moderate V MMI shaking

Update : WAPMERR, a specialized theoretical damage calculator expects NO fatalities and a max. of 30 injured people as a result of this earthquake.

Update : GDACS, who has great demographic number has calculated that 1,376 people are living within a radius of 10 km. 8,212 within a radius of 20 km and 314,609 within a radius of 100 km from the epicenter.

Update : The exact place of the epicenter is of lesser importance for these deep earthquakes. Even living above the epicenter one can compare it (simplified) with living at 121 km from the epicenter of the earthquake (depth was 121 km)

Update : This was the official NOAA message confirming our own estimate :
BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

for more information and updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/12/14/massive-but-deep-earthquake-below-eastern-papua-new-guinea/

El Hierro Update

El Hierro Volcano : Yellow-Red alert – Combined time lapse video with harmonic tremor graph

Last update: December 13, 2011 at 7:17 pm by By 

This is the most recent El Hierro Volcano eruption report

Update 13/12 – 19:15 UTC

A new 4’48″ Julio del Castillo Vivero time lapse video. The original images have been altered to bring up detail of the steam coming out of the water (ER : water vapor not a volcanic cloud) . Time Lapse comprehending the period between 16.35 – 17.32 GMT/UTC With water bubbling and ‘jacuzzi’ style at El Mar de las Calmas, near La Restinga, El Hierro.

 

Update 13/12 – 17:21 UTC
People still looking at the eruption webcam can see clearly the drifting water vapor .
To prove our case,  we have been increasing the contrast of the Telefonica Cabildo Eruption webcam image and below is the result. Above the active jacuzzi you can see the foggy water vapor, below the Las Calmas sea without the steam.

Steaming vent on December 13, 2011 on the Telefonica, Cabildo Eruption webcam

Update 13/12 – 15:50 UTC
Those looking at the webcam have the daily difficulty of the backlight of the sun. Nevertheless the eruption jacuzzi, champagne area can still be seen very well on the Cabildo Eruption webcam.

Update 13/12 – 15:34 UTC
REMARKABLE 3 minute Julio del Castillo Vivero Time Lapse video comprehending the period between 12.42 – 13.42 GMT/UTC With water bubbling and ‘jacuzzi’ style at El Mar de las Calmas, near La Restinga, El Hierro.  Julio combined 3 different elements with each other a) the image of the RTVC webcam (which has no clock !) b) a clock he connected himself to the video and c) the harmonic tremor graph from IGN. Thecombination of the tremor graph and the webcam image has not been published anywhere else as far as we know. Congratulations to Julio.

Update 13/12 – 13:34 UTC
Currently another interesting feature can be followed on the webcam(s) – see image below
We think, but we are nor sure for 100%, that the current activity above the vent looks like degassing bubbles, which means if this process continues from now on that the bubbles of the vent gas expansion reach the surface.

RTVC webcam capture image showing strong degassing bubbles above the vent

To make our case, we have been surfing on the internet and came out at the activity of the Eifuku volcano located at the Mariana Islands arc.  The activity of the volcano was videotaped by the Ropos rov (Remotely Operated submarine Vehicle). The vent of the volcano was in this case 1350 meter below sea level.  A similar kind of activity may be the case here. The images below are courtesy vulkaner.no.  People who want to find out more about these pictures can click on the vulkaner.no link.

Champagne emitting vents in a submarine volcano at the Mariana Islands – image courtesy vulkaner.no

Data Update 13/12 – 13:25 UTC
As we told you yesterday, Joke felt that she had to take the bus from El Pinar to La Restinga enabling her to take pictures from the Las Calmas sea and surroundings. The series below are very beautiful.  Unfortunately there was other weather today than yesterday (a cloud deck) and our experiment to show the vent making clouds has not succeeded today.  One picture in the series shows however a low cloud forming above the vent. It might have been also in this case purely coincidence :) . If you want to see the pictures in full format, please click in the main picture screen.

Data Update 13/12 – 13:15 UTC
It is very unfortunate that the Guardia Civil helicopter is not flying above the vent anymore. It would enabled us to compare the present jacuzzi with the earlier ones.  Reader Penny  did send us a Cabildo Telefonica webcam capture of bulging water this morning.
– the jacuzzi is keeping his strength
– still NO earthquakes
– the tremor signal seems to have subsided a little unless IGN did some rescaling of the graph. Bursts are less frequent than this morning and yesterday.

Image captured this morning on the Cabildo Telefonica webcam by reader Penny

Update 13/12 – 10:21 UTC – A round of honor to the players in the field
We remind our readers that what we witness right now at El Hierro is unprecedented volcano reporting in modern times. A Submarine volcano gradually growing from the sea floor to the surface. Thanks to the data of IGN, IEO and CSIC, the great images and videos from INVOLCAN, ITER and the GUARDIA CIVIL HELICOPTERES , the lively discussions and guiding in Spanish from AVCAN and in English from Jonfr and Volcanocafe , the webcams of the El Hierro Cabildo and Telefonica, RTVC and the Canary Island government and the El Pinar authority, the time lapse videos from Julio del Castillo Vivero, some internet sites (ER is only one of them) and last but not least the support of our volunteers, Joke Volta and Ian Carson, a submarine volcano has never been documented so much.  We thank all of them on behalf of the thousands of daily readers following this volcano birth in the earthquake-report.com website.

Update 13/12 – 10:21 UTC
– The RTVC webcam is showing a very turbulent Jacuzzi activity. The hydromagmatic bursts are having a growing impact on the surface waters and more than once the water is bulging.

Update 13/12 – 09:49 UTC
– Joke is still taking pictures at montaña Naos of this mornings cloud, jacuzzi and stain. The weather conditions are however totally different than yesterday, so we think that yesterdays vapor clouds may not be present today.
– As expected, a VERY large and powerful Jacuzzi this morning. How do we see this ? During the last couple of weeks the Telefonica Cabildo webcam had to zoom into the jacuzzi sometimes beyond the buoy (laid there a couple of weeks ago). In todays image the webcam had to zoom out to be able to get an image of the extended jacuzzi. The jacuzzi activity is growing every day

Red point : Buoy – Jacuzzi December 13 – courtesy Cabildo and Telefonica El Hierro

Data Update 13/12 – 06:25 UTC
– NO earthquakes
– Medium harmonic tremor with periods of strong bursts and periods of lesser bursts


Data Update 12/12 – 22:22 UTC
INVOLCAN new CO² data shows a considerable further decrease. On December 5  the amount of carbon dioxide amounted to 1560 ton daily, yesterday 978 tons.

Data Update 12/12 – 21:21 UTC
Lets talk something serious now :
– NO earthquakes today
– Medium harmonic tremor with bursts every 5 to 10 minutes (hydromagmatic activity – see link to paper below). This happened all the day long – see graph.

Harmonic tremor graph December 12 2011 – image courtesy IGN

for more information, photos, videos, etc., go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/09/25/el-hierro-canary-islands-spain-volcanic-risk-alert-increased-to-yellow/

Climate Change and Insects

Watch out for the bugs

Published: 12:56 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
I’m wrapping up my stay in San Francisco for the annual Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the world’s largest gathering of Earth Scientists. Over eighteen thousand scientists from all over the world, including most of the world’s top climate scientists, were in town this week to exchange ideas to advance the cause of Earth Science. It’s been a great opportunity to learn about climate change topics I don’t know much about, and I attended a fascinating (and somewhat unnerving) lecture on how global warming is expected to affect insects, titled “The Impact of Global Warming on global crop yields due to changes in pest pressure”. Global warming is expected to bring a variety of impacts to agriculture, both positive and negative. Extra CO2 in the atmosphere will tend to increase crop yields, but crop losses due to insect pests are expected to double by 2100, according to a insect pest/crop model designed by David Battisti of the University of Washington. These losses will occur in addition to the expected 35 – 40% decrease in crop yields due to higher temperatures by the end of the century.

When temperature increases, the metabolic rate of insects goes up, requiring that they eat more to survive. In the mid-latitudes, the predicted 2 – 4°C temperature increase by 2100 will require insects to eat double what they do now, in order to survive. The increase in temperature is also expected to enable insect populations to rise by 20%. However, insect populations will fall by 20% in the tropics, where insects have evolved to tolerate a much narrower range of temperatures. Let’s look at the world’s three most important crops: rice, wheat, and corn. In the four largest rice producing countries–China, India, Bangladesh, and Thailand–Insects currently cause a loss of 10- 20% of the crop, and this is expected to double to 20 – 30% by 2100. These nations have 40% of the world’s population, and make 60% of the world’s rice. For corn, the world’s four largest producers–the U.S., China, France, and Argentina–are expected to see insect pest losses double from 6% to 12%. The story is similar for wheat; pest losses are expected to double from 10% to 20% by 2100. The total increased damage to global agriculture is predicted to be $30 – $50 billion per year by 2100. This will likely contribute greatly to food costs and potential food shortages. The model made a number of simplifications that could greatly change this outcome, though. The model assumed that there would be no change to the number of insects that survive winter, and this number is likely to increase in a warmer climate. Precipitation was not changed to reflect what is expected to happen in a changed climate, and this will cause increases in crop yields in some areas, and decreases in others. Farmers are likely to change growing practices and utilize new pesticides to combat the expected increase in pests, and this was not considered, either. It is interesting to note that during the great natural global warming event of 55 million years ago–the Palecene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)–fossil records of plant leaves show greatly increased levels of damage from insects, supporting the idea that a warmer climate will drive an explosion in the insect population.

Jeff Masters

Locust Clouds over Paamul (cleo85)
A several miles wide swarm of Locus is moving from Cancun south-west ward over Yucatans Jungle.Paamul, Quintana Roo, Mexico
Locust Clouds over Paamul, by cleo85

Storm Targets California Monday

Major Storm to strike Southern California on Monday, bringing Severe Weather

Published on December 11, 2011 10:00 am PT
– By TWS Staff Reporter
– Edited by Staff Editor


(TheWeatherSpace.com) – TWS’ Southern California Weather Authority has issued a Severe Weather Statement for the populated zones of Southern California for Monday for severe weather to strike.

TWS Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin issued the product this morning just after 9:30 a.m. Pacific Time. The skies are clear across Southern California and it does not even seem like a major storm is on the horizon, but there is

“This is one of those systems that goes negative tilted, which means the dynamics for widespread thunderstorms and a chance of severe weather, including tornadic activity, is possible. The best dynamics is offshore Orange County, which means areas along the Orange County coast and inland need to be aware.”

TWS SCWXA has named the system the next name on the list, Garrett. Major Pacific Storm Garrett is a category four to start, but Martin stresses the highest scale of five could be issued by tonight if trends continue.

“In addition to this, the mountains above 5,000 feet will take a beating with the system, bringing significant snowfall to those areas and thundersnow,” concluded Martin.

from:   http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/TWS-121111-major-storm-southern-california.html
.

Strong Earthquake – Iguala, Mexico

Very strong earthquake near Iguala, Mexico – 2 people killed, 4 injured and 50 houses damaged in Guerrero

Last update: December 11, 2011 at 5:38 pm by By 

Earthquake overview :  A very strong earthquake occurred near Iguala Mexico at 07:47 PM local time. Luckily the hypocenter was at a depth of 64.7 km.

image copyright and courtesy telediario.mx

Update 11/12 – 17:23 UTC
– The Civil Defense undersecretary from the Guerrero province has declared that the official death toll is 2(updated from 3), 4 people have been injured  and 50 houses have been damaged.

Update 11/12 – 13:23 UTC
– As could be expected after such a powerful earthquake, a number of aftershocks have been reported so far
– The picture at right shows the damaged van of the unlucky driver who lost his live during this earthquake. We do not know the exact circumstances but it looks that he was hit by one of the heavy stones on the ground. 2 woman inside the van were more lucky as the far heavier stones where blocked by the roof of the van. The woman were injured.

Update 11/12 – 12:06 UTC
The death toll remains at 3 and will probably and hopefully not increase anymore.
All the fatalities have been reported in Guerrero state.
The Mexico City DF (Federal district) has reported a SALDO BLANCO, which means that there were NO injuries and/or fatalities
– At least 13.2 million people must have Felt the earthquake
– The deep hypocenter or focal depth  is the main reason why this very strong earthquake did not made more victims.
– Based on what we know right now, we can call it a lucky escape.
– The video below shows the shaking while a TV soap was being recorded. We think that this video was recorded in Mexico City, at least 150 km from the epicenter. The video shows very well the length of the shaking (official reports are mentioning 47 seconds, but this might have been the case closer to the epicenter).

Update 09:06 UTC : 
A third death has occurred in the northern region of Guerrero, where a rock fell onto a driver.
Thus we have had 1 death via structural failure, and 2 via rockfalls.
In Chilpancingo, several houses and businesses were damaged, while the Cathedral of the Assumption of Mary has a serious crack in one of the towers.
Civil Protection has continued monitoring of damage, mainly in Zumpango del Rio, where the epicenter occurred. Helicopters are flying over for more reports, as people gradually have returned inside their buildings in a city that is ready to receive thousands of pilgrims for the annual celebration of the feast of Our Lady of Guadalupe.

Update 08:34 UTC : 
The death toll from this earthquake remains at 2. An 11 year old boy was killed when the roof of his house fell on him, and a rock fall caused the death of a motorist. As yet these are the only reports of deaths. Injuries have occurred in many locations from falling structures, objects and landslides.

I Have Felt It map – courtesy USGS

Update 08:34 UTC : 
The epicentral region has been hit by many earthquakes in the past 110 years according to CATDAT – here are just some of the damaging earthquakes within 100km of the epicenter. Chilpancingo has had damage on average every 30 years.
Date Magnitude Lat/Long No. of fatalities
1899 7.5Ml 17.1,-100.5 Chilpancingo damage
16/01/1902 7.3Ml 17.6,-99.5 300
6/10/1937 6.5Ml 17.3,-99.3 0
10/01/1944 7Ml 18.1,-100.6 0
11/05/1962 7.3Mw 17.18,-99.642 4
19/05/1962 6.7Ms 17.009,-99.763 30
30/11/1962 5.1Ml 17.6,-99.7 1
6/07/1964 7.2mB 18.193,-100.509 78
2/07/1968 5.7mB 17.519,-100.259 1
7/06/1976 6.4Mw 17.378,-100.691 0
13/04/2007 6Ml 17.302,-100.198 0

Update 08:11 UTC : 
From such an earthquake, the shaking in the soft soil (clay basin) of Mexico City, can sometimes be amplified many times, and could be the reason why we have seen damaged buildings in Mexico City despite expected low ground accelerations due to the distance from the epicenter. Mexico City was built on a lake originally, and hence the soft alluvial soils that magnify ground motion.

for more, updates, and links, go to:   http://earthquake-report.com/2011/12/11/very-strong-earthquake-at-intermediate-depth-near-iguala-mexico/