Category Archives: Earth Stuff

News of Earth Changes, climate shifts, weather anomalies, volcanoes, etc

Dr. Jeff Masters on August Heat

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August 2012: Earth’s 4th warmest August on record
Published: 3:07 PM GMT on September 18, 2012

August 2012 was the globe’s 4th warmest August on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated August 2012 the 6th warmest on record. August 2012 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 5th warmest on record. August 2012 was the 330th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in August for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground’s weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of August in his August 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for August 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including much of Canada, Southeast Europe, and Western Asia. Central Russia was much cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures were at 0.5°C above average as of September 17 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, and have been near or above the 0.5°C above average–the threshold needed for a weak El Niño event–since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their September 6 El Niño discussion. They continued their El Niño watch, and gave a 69% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by the end of September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June. However, the past few runs of the GFS model have predicted a significant rise in wind shear over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic by early October, which may represent El Niño finally beginning to kick in and affect the atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent as of September 18, 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low years, in millions of square kilometers. This year’s extent is far below any previous year, and is close to its minimum for the year. Satellite measurements of ice extent began in 1979. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.

Arctic sea ice falls to all-time record low during August
August 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its lowest August extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set (see the comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs here.) Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn’t seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 18, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 – 2000. The amount of open ocean exposed this September compared to September 1980 is about 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. The ice extent is close to its minimum for the year, and should start in increase within the next week or two, but that open water over the Arctic will provide a significant amount of heat and moisture to the atmosphere over the next few months that will significantly alter weather patterns. One possible impact may be an increase in the intensity and duration of extreme weather events during fall and winter.

Video 1. This animation shows the 2012 time-series of ice extent using sea ice concentration data from the DMSP SSMI/S satellite sensor. The black area represents the daily average (median) sea ice extent over the 1979-2000 time period. Layered over top of that are the daily satellite measurements from January 1 – September 14, 2012. A rapid melt begins in July, whereby the 2012 ice extents fall far below the historical average. Source: NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Nadine approaching the Azores
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine is headed northeastwards on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. A tropical storm watch has been posted for the islands of Flores and Corvo in the northwestern Azores. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to weaken on Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, the GFS and ECMWF models predict Nadine will move southwestward over warmer waters, and it could become fully tropical again.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave that moved through the Lesser Antilles Islands yesterday (92L) has diminished, and this wave is no longer a threat to develop. None of the reliable computers models is showing development of a new tropical cyclone in the Atlantic through September 24.

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

August 2012 Weather Extremes

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August 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary
Published: 5:52 AM GMT on September 04, 2012

August 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary

There is never a dull month when it comes to extreme weather and August 2012 was no exception. The month began with a massive flood in Manila, Philippines and an intense heat wave in the south-central U.S. Two very sharp heat waves affected much of Europe during the 2nd and 3rd weeks of the month smashing records from Spain to Poland and the Ukraine. Typhoons walloped coastal sections of China and Hurricane Isaac thrashed the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Below is a summary some of the month’s highlights.

NORTH AMERICA

An intense heat wave in the southern plains exacerbated the on-going drought conditions and the temperature at Oklahoma City reached 113°F (45°C), the warmest temperature ever measured in the city. By mid-August, however, a very cool air mass invaded most of the central portion of the country and temperatures even fell to freezing at a few locations in Minnesota and Wisconsin. In spite, of the mid-month cool down some sites have ended up enduring their hottest summer on record. Denver, Colorado has averaged 76.3° for its climatological summer (June-August) beating its former warmest summer of 1954 by a full 2°F (old record was 74.3°F). The warmest temperature in the world during August was 126°F (52.2°C) measured at Death Valley, California on August 9th.

Sub-tropical moisture brought intense rainfall to portions of the desert southwest on August 22nd. Las Vegas, Nevada recorded its 2nd wettest calendar day on record with 1.68” that caused flash flooding resulting in one drowning death in the city. (Mesquite, near Las Vegas, picked up 2.04”, its greatest 24-hour rainfall on record/since 1992). Some other desert locations measured over 4” of rain in just a few hours (4.03” at Mid Hills RAWS in San Bernardino County, California—about what this site might expect in an entire year). One site in Nevada’s Mohave County, Wikieup, received 1.42” of rain in just 30 minutes. Ironically, Seattle, Washington (normally perceived as wetter than Las Vegas!) received no measureable precipitation during the entire month of August, and of this writing, is approaching its record of 51 rain-free days set in 1951 (last rainfall this summer was on July 22nd).

Hurricane Isaac made landfall in Louisiana on August 27 as a CAT 1 storm although its large size, strong storm surge (as high as 13’,) and central pressure (as low as 966mb) was more indicative of a strong CAT 2 cyclone. Seven storm-related deaths were reported mostly associated with the 15-20” rainfalls that fell along the path of the slow moving storm. The damage (at least US$2 billion) caused by Isaac is still under review as of this writing.

Flooding reminiscent of Hurricane Katrina ravaged some New Orleans-area neighborhoods like Plaquemines Parish southeast of the city. Ironically, Isaac struck virtually on the 7th anniversary of Katrina. Photo by Carolyn Cole, Los Angeles Times).

Hurricane Ernesto struck the western coast of Mexico on August 9th resulting in the deaths of two.

The Arctic measured its lowest sea ice extent since observations began in 1975. By August 26th the ice extent had shrunk to 1.58 million square miles, about 277,000 square miles less than the previous record low set in September 2007.

The coldest temperature measured in the northern hemisphere during August was -36.1°C (-33.0°F) at Summit AWS, Greenland on August 30th.

SOUTH AMERICA and CENTRAL AMERICA

Tartagal, Argentina recorded a temperature of 38.8°C (101.8°F) on August 22nd a record for the month at that location.

EUROPE

Europe experienced its most intense heat wave since the famous heat wave of 2003 and, in fact, many locations measured even higher temperatures than that occasion. All-time national heat records were set in the Czech Republic (40.4°C/104.7°F at Dobrichovice on August 20th), Moldova (42.4°C/108.3°F at Falesti on August 7th), and Montenegro (44.8°C/112.6°F at Danilovgrad on August 8th). In the Pyrenees along the French and Spanish border virtually every site recorded its warmest temperature on record. For more details on the European heat waves of August see my previous blog on the subject. Wild fires have raged out of control in both Spain and Greece with several fatalities reported from the Spanish resort area around Marbella.

August weather extremes for the United Kingdom are not yet available.

An intense wild fire threatens a beach resort on the island of Chios in the Greek archipelago on August 18th. Photo from EPA archives.

AFRICA

Monsoonal rains resulted in deadly floods in Nigeria and Cameroon during the month. At least 14 flood-related deaths were reported in Cameroon’s north region and at least 15 in Nigeria’s central provinces.

On August 25th and 26th the temperature peaked at 42.5°C (108.5°F) at Mtunzini, South Africa. This was not only a winter record for South Africa but also close to the warmest temperature ever measured in the southern hemisphere during the winter months (44°C has been recorded at Villamontes, Bolivia during previous Augusts). Needless to say, this was the warmest temperature measured in the southern hemisphere during this past August.

ASIA

Although this years summer monsoons have failed to materialize in much of South Asia, heavy rains in the mountains of northern Pakistan on August 20-23 resulted in flash floods that drowned at least 26.

It was a very active month typhoon-wise in the Western Pacific. Notable typhoons struck Macao and Hong Kong including Typhoon Kai-tak that caused winds to gust to 87 mph at Hong Kong’s International Airport on August 23 and 27 lives were lost in China’s Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces. It was the strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong since 1999. Typhoon Bolaven was the strongest typhoon to hit the Korean Peninsula since 2002 when it roared ashore on August 28th. At least 18 deaths (mostly fisherman) were reported as a result of the storm with at least a further 48 fatalities reported just recently from North Korea.

The biggest weather story of the month in Asia, however, was the tremendous flood that engulfed Manila in the Philippines between July 31-August 8th. Up to 1000 mm (40”) of rain was reported to have fallen in Quezon City during the week of rains and there were some 60 fatalities reported. For details about the flood see Angela Fritz’s August blog on the subject.

Manila’s streets turned into lakes during the phenomenal flood that affected the city the first week of August. Photo by Jof Cubol.

AUSTRALIA

Australia had a warmer and drier August than normal, reversing (temperature-wise) the cold weather endured over much of the country the previous July. It was Western Australia’s driest August since 1995 and 2nd warmest August on record.

A very warm month virtually nation-wide for Australia this past August (top map). Precipitation was also below normal in most of the country, especially in portions of Western Australia where it was the driest August on record (bottom map). Maps courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

The warmest temperature recorded in Australia during this past August was 38.5°C (101.3°F) at Fitzroy Crossing, Western Australia on August 27th and the coldest -4.9°C (23.2°F) at Thredbo Top Station, New South Wales on August 6th. The greatest calendar day precipitation was 73.0mm (2.87”) at Mount Sabine, Victoria on August 18th.

NEW ZEALAND/SOUTH PACIFIC

It was generally a mild and wet August in New Zealand although there was a sharp contrast in precipitation totals on the South Island where anomalies ran the gamut from 10% to 400% of normal!

The extreme anomaly between very dry and very wet weather that affected the South Island in August can be seen in this map above. Map courtesy of NIWA.

The highest temperature recorded was 22.7°C (72.9°F) at Christchurch, South Island on August 26th and the lowest -5.3°C (22.5°F) at Ranfurly on August 23rd. The greatest calendar day rainfall was 198 mm (7.80”) at Akaroa on August 25th.

ANTARCTICA

The coldest temperature in the southern hemisphere and the world during August was -80.0°C (-112.0°F) recorded at Vostok on August 7th.

KUDOS Thanks to Maximiliano Herrera for global temperature extremes data, Stephen Burt for the U.K. extremes, and Jeremy Budd and NIWA for New Zealand weather extremes.

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/article.html

Latest on Leslie & Michael fr/Dr. Jeff Masters

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90L in the Gulf disorganized; Leslie and Michael weaken
Published: 4:27 PM GMT on September 07, 2012

A partial remnant of Hurricane Isaac off the coast of Louisiana, Invest 90L, was almost torn apart last night by wind shear, but is making a bit of a comeback today. Visible satellite loops and surface observations from buoys and oil rigs in the Gulf show that 90L has an sloppy, elongated surface circulation. The area covered by heavy thunderstorms is relatively modest, and has been pushed to the south side of the circulation center by strong northerly winds that are creating a high 20 knots of wind shear. There is a large amount of dry air that surrounds 90L on all sides that is interfering with development. A hurricane hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate 90L today was cancelled, and has been rescheduled for Saturday afternoon.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Invest 90L taken at 11:58 am EDT Friday September 7, 2012.

Forecast for 90L
Wind shear over 90L is predicted to stay in the moderate to high range, 15 – 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then drop to the low range Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf are 28.5° – 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm. 90L is essentially stationary this morning, but should begin a slow motion to the east-northeast tonight, in response to the steering flow from a trough of low pressure and its associated surface cold front approaching the Gulf Coast from the northwest. This trough should be capable of pulling 90L to a landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida by Sunday morning. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. I put these odds higher, at 30%.

Leslie weakens to a tropical storm
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to remain nearly stationary to the south of the island of Bermuda, and a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft found this morning that Leslie had weakened below hurricane strength, to a 70 mph tropical storm. An ocean probe launched by the aircraft found that the ocean temperatures at one location in Leslie were 24.5°C, a full 5°C (8°F) drop from when the storm first reached the area two days ago. Moderate wind shear of 10 – 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the west continue to drive dry air to Leslie’s west into the core of the storm. The combined effect of shear and cool waters have eroded away Leslie’s core, and the storm has no eyewall, as seen on satellite loops. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft will be in the storm tonight, and an uncrewed NASA Global Hawk aircraft finished an HS3 Hurricane Research Mission into Leslie this morning.


Figure 2. Hurricane Leslie as seen by NASA’s Aqua satellite at 10:45 am EDT Thursday, September 6, 2012. At the time, Leslie was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Leslie
A strong trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast should make Leslie start moving to the north at 5 mph by Saturday morning. The models have stayed with their more eastwards solution to Leslie’s track, which keeps the threat of Bermuda receiving hurricane-force winds relatively low, since the island is expected to be on the weak (left) side of the storm. If the official NHC forecast verifies, tropical storm-force winds will just graze Bermuda Sunday morning through Sunday evening. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to fall to the low category, 5 – 10 knots, by Friday night. Leslie is over warm ocean waters of 29 – 30°C, and once the storm moves away from the large pool of cool waters it has stirred up, the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow the storm to intensify to at least a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 30% chance that Leslie will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane Sunday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm will be beginning its closest pass to Bermuda. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 200 – 220 miles by Sunday.

Most of the models indicate Leslie is likely to make landfall in Newfoundland, Canada on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. However, the models have been trending more to the east with Leslie’s track in recent runs, and given the uncertainty in 4-day hurricane forecasts, the storm could very well miss the island, passing to the northeast. Large swells from Leslie are pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and are creating beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 3. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA’s Aqua satellite at 12:20 pm EDT Thursday September 6, 2012. At the time, Michael was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Michael weakens to Category 2
The only major hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Michael, has weakened, and is now a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Satellite loops show that Michael is still an impressive storm with a well-developed eye, but the storm is not as symmetric, and the eye no longer as distinct as was the case yesterday. Michael is far out over the open Atlantic, and none of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming seven days.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that a new tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa today will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. This wave is predicted to exit Africa too far north to threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Poodle Moth In Venezuela

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The completely bizarre Venezuelan poodle moth

What’s fuzzy, adorable, and terrifying all at the same time? This mysterious little winged creature, which has become an overnight internet sensation

posted on August 30, 2012, at 8:03 AM
While the poodle moth's genetic origins are still unknown, there is no denying its "adorably weird" appeal.

While the poodle moth’s genetic origins are still unknown, there is no denying its “adorably weird” appeal. Photo: CC BY: artour_

The video: This little critter has been compared to everything from a cross between “a miniature gargoyle and a Furby” to a puzzling new “Pokemon character.” But whatever people think of its looks, the Venezuelan poodle moth is, apparently, the real deal. The photo, snapped in 2009 by zoologist Arthur Anker of Brazil’s Federal University of Ceará, has become something of an overnight sensation after Anker posted it onto his Flickr page. (Take a closer look below.) He first spotted the tiny insect with a 1-inch wingspan while walking through Canaimá National Park in Venezuela, and is now asking other zoologists to help identify its genus. A few experts believe the poodle moth is related to the furry muslin moth (Diaphora mendica), which gives scientists hope that there are still fantastical creatures out there we haven’t even seen yet. “Thousands of new insects are discovered every year in the South American rain forests,” says cryptozoologist Kark Shuker. “So it would be by no means unusual if [Anker’s] Venezuelan poodle moth proved to be one, too.”

The reaction: The poodle moth looks like it belongs to a family called Arctiidae, says Alan Boyle at NBC News. There are an estimated 11,000 species of Arctiidae around the world, including 6,000 already known in this region. That could be why classifying this critter has proved to be so “tricky.” In any case, “holy crap,” says David Mendez at Tuscon Weekly. This thing “has the distinction of being both something that I would run away in terror from, as well as something that I want to capture and train to battle other frightening creatures with inexplicable elemental powers.” It’s certainly “adorably weird,” says George Mathis at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. It’s unfortunate that scientists trekking through the park in Venezuela have been unable to spot it again, but the creature doesn’t appear to be a hoax. Its rediscovery would confirm what we pretty much already know: “Nature is chock full of amazing stuff.” Take a look:

from:http://theweek.com/article/index/232584/the-completely-bizarre-venezuelan-poodle-moth

Papua, Indonesia Area earthquake

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Very strong earthquake close to the Papua, Indonesia coast

Last update: September 8, 2012 at 11:29 am by By

Very strong earthquake close to the Papua, Indonesia coast
56km (35mi) WNW of Nabire, Indonesia
The earthquake is not strong enough to generate a tsunami. As this is no subduction quake, the depth is measured to be 20 km.
Due to the close distance to the coast, a moderate shaking is expected in a radius of 50 km (will be felt by approx. 3000 people). As Papua New Guinea and Papua people are more or less accustomed to earthquakes, and if the earthquake parameters are correct, this earthquake is not considered as dangerous by ER.
Update 11:22 UTC : BMKG, the Indonesian seismological agency, reports a Magnitude of Ml6.3 but at a depth of 55 km.
Update 11:27 UTC : we can only locate a few very small settlements close to the epicenter, which confirms our initial expectations that this earthquake will be probably harmless

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/09/08/major-earthquakes-list-september-8-2012/

Dr. Jeff Masters on Polar Ice Cap Melt, Alaska Storm, etc.

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Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low
Published: 8:53 PM GMT on September 06, 2012

Extraordinary melting of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has shattered the all-time low sea ice extent record set in September 2007, and sea ice continues to decline far below what has ever been observed. The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set. These organizations include the University of Washington Polar Science Center (a new record for low ice volume), the Nansen Environmental & Remote Sensing Center in Norway, and the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. A comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs shows the full story. Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn’t seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 5, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 – 2000. The ice continues to melt, and has not reached the low for this year yet.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day at the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory.


Figure 2. Sea ice extent on September 5, 2012, showed that half of the polar ice cap was missing, compared to the average from 1979 – 2000. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Why the Arctic sea ice is important
Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The Autumn air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 – 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is increased melting in Greenland. We already saw an unprecedented melting event in Greenland this year, and as warming continues, the likelihood of these events increase.


Figure 3. August set a new record for lowest Arctic sea ice extent. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Figure 4. Arctic sea ice death spiral as plotted by Jim Pettit using data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

Huge storm pummels Alaska
A massive low pressure system with a central pressure of 970 mb swept through Alaska on Tuesday, generating hurricane-force wind gusts near Anchorage, Alaska that knocked out power to 55,000 homes. Mighty Alaskan storms like this are common in winter, but rare in summer and early fall. The National Weather Service in Anchorage said in their Wednesday forecast discussion that the forecast wind speeds from this storm were incredibly strong for this time of year–four to six standard anomalies above normal. A four-standard anomaly event occurs once every 43 years, and a five-standard anomaly event is a 1-in-4800 year event. However, a meteorologist I heard from who lives in the Anchorage area characterized the wind damage that actually occurred as a 1-in-10 year event. A few maximum wind gusts recorded on Tuesday during the storm:

McHugh Creek (Turnagain Arm)… … ..88 mph
Paradise Valley (Potter Marsh)… … 75 mph
Upper Hillside (1400 ft)… … … … 70 mph
Anchorage port… … … … … … … .63 mph

The storm has weakened to a central pressure of 988 mb today, and is located just north of Alaska. The storm is predicted to bring strong winds of 25 – 35 mph and large waves to the edge of the record-thin and record-small Arctic ice cap, and may add to the unprecedented decline in Arctic sea ice being observed this summer.


Figure 5. An unusually strong storm formed off the coast of Alaska on August 5 and tracked into the center of the Arctic Ocean, where it slowly dissipated over the next several days. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color mosaic image on Aug. 6, 2012. The center of the storm at that date was located in the middle of the Arctic Ocean. Image credit: NASA.

Arctic storms may be increasing due to climate change
This week’s Alaskan storm is the second unusually strong low pressure system to affect the Arctic in the past month. On August 4 – 8, a mighty storm with a central pressure of 963 mb raged through the Arctic, bringing strong winds that helped scatter and break up Arctic sea ice. According to a detailed post at NASA Earth Observatory, that storm was in the top 3 percent for strongest storms ever recorded north of 70 degrees latitude. A study of long-term Arctic cyclone trends authored by a team led by John Walsh and Xiangdong Zhang of the University of Alaska Fairbanks found that number and intensity of Arctic cyclones has increased during the second half of the twentieth century, particularly during the summer. Dr. Zhang explained that climate change has caused sea ice to retreat markedly in recent decades and has also warmed Arctic Ocean temperatures. Such changes may be providing more energy and moisture to support cyclone development and persistence. The strong storms of this week and a month ago would have had far less impact on the ice just a decade ago, when the sea ice was much thicker and more extensive.

A sea ice decline double-whammy
The monster Arctic storms like we’ve seen this year have sped up the rate of sea ice loss, but increased water temperatures and air temperatures due to human-caused global warming are the dominant reasons for the record melting of the Arctic sea ice. A July 2012 study by Day et al. found that the most influential of the possible natural influences on sea ice loss was the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO has two phases, negative (cold) and positive (warm), which impact Arctic sea ice. The negative phase tends to create sea surface temperatures in the far north Atlantic that are colder than average. In this study, the AMO only accounted for 5% – 31% of the observed September sea ice decline since 1979. The scientists concluded that given the lack of evidence that natural forces were controlling sea ice fluctuations, the majority of sea ice decline we’ve seen during the 1953 – 2010 period was due to human causes.

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Destructive Shallow Earthquakes — Yunnan, China

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Deaths and Destruction after a series of shallow earthquakes in Yunnan, China – 64 people killed and 715 injured

Last update: September 7, 2012 at 2:58 pm by By

Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 5.7 (CENC), 5.6 (CENC)
UTC Time : 03:19:42 UTC, Friday, 7th September, 2012.
Local time at epicenter : 11:19:42, Friday, 7th September, 2012.
Depth (Hypocenter) : 10km, 10km
Geo-location(s) : 1km (1mi) SW of Jiaokui, China
39km (24mi) NE of Zhaotong, China
84km (52mi) NNW of Weining, China
120km (75mi) SW of Xunchang, China

Update 14:08 UTC
– It is horrifying for us to add always more and more fatalities in our updates.  Now from 63 to 64, another family devastated by losing someone.
– The Yunnan earthquake is currently the 4th deadliest earthquake of 2012

Image courtesy and copyright ChinaNews – Click on this picture to watch more images from ChinaNews

Image courtesy and copyright zhgpl.com

Update 13:05 UTC
– The death toll has, as could be expected, further increased to 63
– 715 people are injured in various degrees
– China Prime Minister Hu Jintao gave personally high priority instructions to do whatever necessary to help the people in the disaster area
– 15 county towns have been damaged in various degrees
– It is currently dark in China and the power has not been restored in all affected areas yet
– 3961 rooms are destroyed
– 13876 rooms damaged
– 3455 livestock pens destroyed
– 11633 livestock pens damaged

Update 10:59 UTC
– A reporter who was inspecting the area saw huge landslides on both sides of the valley.
– Roads are being blocked by huge rocks.
– A boulder measuring 36 meter was blocking the river, creating a small lake
– The houses of 30 families living near a zinc mine have all been damaged
– aftershocks are following each other very fast. More landslides and rockfall is being triggered by the many aftershocks
– rescue workers have still problems to reach some areas as roads are blocked

Update 10:47 UTC
– Most of the fatalities (49 of the 50) have been reported from Yilang county
– The local seismological bureau has given 4 reasons why the death toll is higher in Yilang county
a) very high population density (205 people per sq/km vs 117 in the rest of Yunnan)
b) poorly constructed houses because of poor families and almost no industrial activity (no earthquake resistant building)
c) mountains and slopes which can trigger easily secondary effects like landslides
d) the double strong earthquakes impact. The second earthquake was shallower and closer to densely populated areas
– Experts from CEA (National Earthquake Authority) will arrive soon at the scene to help with the local authorities. National experts are only sent in after major earthquake events.
– High Voltage Power supply facilities have been severely damaged

Update 10:31 UTC
– China TV now reports that 50 people have lost their life in a double moderate earthquake, making this earthquake one of the most deadly this year. Assessment is currently done by the Chinese authorities
– Darkness will set in in a couple of hours making rescue work even more dangerous. Rescuers still have to cope with aftershocks of M3 to M4.

Image courtesy yunnan.cn

Update 09:20 UTC
– This is the unfolding report of the Yunnan earthquake China, no more updates since our 08:31 UTC report
– More information can come in at any minute
– If you want to know more about this earthquake, please keep this page open and refresh it at regular times as we will continue following up this cruel earthquake the following hours
– Earthquake-Report.com is following up both official information (national and regional seismological bureaus and rescue departments, civil defense authorities as well as Chinese news media)

Update 08:31 UTC
– The death toll of the double M5.6 / M5.7 earthquake has further climbed to 43 (42 in Yiliang County, 1 in Zhaoyang District).
– 700,000 people have been affected by this cruel earthquake
– 100,000 people have been relocated
– Major fires are currently going on in the damaged areas (can be seen on the latest video below)

Update 08:10 UTC
The Yunnan Provincial Civil Affairs department has just released an update :
– 24 dead, 150 injured.
– 100000 people evacuated/relocated
– 20000+ households with damage
– ER expects that the Economic loss estimate is coming out to $220-390 million based on the current parameters. (still waiting on a damage-based estimate).

Image courtesy CCTV

Update 07:48 UTC
– Apart from the mainshocks, a lot of aftershocks are hitting the area
– The current rainy weather is making the soil very unstable, thus triggering a lot of minor and major landslides
– The Chinese CEA authority has send a 10-man supervisory team to the area. These National teams are only flying in in major disaster cases.

Update 07:40 UTC
– Reports are also talking about severely injured people which means that the death toll will probably climb further
– The news of serious landslides also means that remotely located villages may have been hit by landslides too. Priority is mostly given to the bigger cities.
– Greatly seen in the world as small tremors proof once more to become a deadly cocktail in China. Earthquakes cannot be pinned into a Magnitude / Dangerous relation. Much more has to be accounted for.

Important update 07:33 UTC
– Various Chinese media are now reporting a death toll of at least 20 people. (has to be confirmed by the Yunnan Earthquake Bureau)

UPDATE 07:24 UTC:
– Power has been lost in some areas as transmission poles were knocked down by landslides
– Rail traffic has been halted in the region
– 6,000 tents, 6,000 quilts and 6,000 coats are distributed to the population

UPDATE 06:47 UTC:
– Death toll has reached 7.
– In addition, 20000 households have damage of some form.

UPDATE:
– At least 6 are dead according to new reports. The M5.7 earthquake had a 14km depth, and was 15km from Yiliang county and 30 kilometers from Zhaotong City. Damage is expected in both locations.
– The earthquake was felt as far as Chengdu, hundreds of km from the epicenter

Zhaotong Prefecture is home to 5.74 million people but has a reasonably low GDP of around CNY39 billion  per year (6.2 billion USD). It is mainly agricultural in nature. The exposed capital stock according to CATDAT in terms of net capital infrastructure is around 14.2 billion USD, of which around 2.1 billion USD is in the most affected areas including Yiliang County. Hence we are looking at a damage bill in at least the 100s of millions of USD if directly impacted. The rural net capita income is about CNY2900 (around 500USD).

UPDATE:- At least 20,000 rooms (around 6,000 houses) are destroyed at first estimates, with 6000 tents being sent to the region and many other disaster supplies.

Epicenter right by the city.

UPDATE:- The dual quakes hit about 57 minutes apart, both of around M5.6, with much panic.
We are still waiting on damage reports but know that much damage has occurred. More than 150 people from disaster services have rushed to the scene.

Over 6.7 million people live within 100km of this quake. Yiliang county itself has around 500,000 inhabitants and is extremely mountainous having differences of 520m above sea level to 2800m within the county.

Yiliang

51 minutes after the event, 39 people were sent to the area from the Seismological Bureau.

According to Yunnan Yiliang radio and television reporter sent to CCTV’s news, a 5.6 earthquake occurred in Yunnan Yiliang, some houses have collapsed and landslides hindered transportation.

for more information and updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/09/07/deaths-and-destruction-in-m5-6-shallow-quake-in-china/

Hurricanes and More Hurricanes

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Leslie near hurricane strength; Son of Isaac (90L) emerges in the Gulf
Published: 3:05 PM GMT on September 05, 2012

Tropical Storm Leslie is growing more organized and is approaching hurricane strength on its slow voyage northwards at 2 mph towards the island of Bermuda. Moderately high wind shear of 15 – 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest continues to keep most of Leslie’s heavy thunderstorms pushed to the east side of the storm, but satellite loops show that Leslie now has an impressive blow-up of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops near its center. Leslie’s slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm’s winds, inhibiting intensification, but the waters underneath Leslie are warm to great depth, making this less of a factor than usual. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to fall steadily today, reaching the low category, 5 – 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. Leslie is over warm ocean waters of 29 – 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification, and potentially allow Leslie to be at Category 2 strength at its closest pass by Bermuda Saturday night and early Sunday morning, as indicated by the official NHC forecast. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 48% chance that Leslie will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane Sunday morning at 8 am EDT. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 42-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Saturday morning near 2 am AST, and lasting until 8 pm AST Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, and Leslie will be capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize. NHC is predicting that hurricane-force winds will extend outwards from the center of Leslie by 35 miles on Thursday night, and I expect this will increase to at least 60 miles by early Sunday morning, when Leslie will be making its closest pass by Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. Heavy thunderstorms have built near the center of the storm, and Leslie is near hurricane strength.

Leslie’s impact on Canada
Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. The timing of this trough is such that Leslie will be pulled northwards and then north-northeastwards over the weekend. There are still significant differences among the models in the timing and speed of Leslie’s track over the weekend, but we can now dismiss the threat of Leslie making a direct hit on New England. The storm is likely to make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, though there are significant differences in the models’ predictions of the timing of Leslie’s arrival in Canada. The GFS model predicts an early Tuesday landfall in Newfoundland, but the ECMWF model is much faster and farther west, predicting a Monday afternoon landfall in Nova Scotia. Large swells from Leslie are pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and these waves will increase in size as Leslie grows in strength this week. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Thursday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Invest 90L off the coast of the Florida Panhandle.

Son of Isaac: Invest 90L emerges in the Gulf of Mexico
During Tropical Depression Isaac’s trek across the center of the U.S. during the Labor Day weekend, the storm was ripped in half. One portion of the storm moved over the Northeast U.S., bringing heavy rains there, and another portion sank southwards over Alabama. You can see this split by studying an animation of the vorticity at 850 mb (the amount of spin at low levels of the atmosphere, near 5,000 feet above sea level) from the University of Wisconsin. This remnant of Isaac, which still maintained some of Isaac’s spin, brought heavy rains of 5 – 10 inches that caused flooding problems over portions of Alabama on Tuesday. The storm has now emerged over the Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Panhandle, and was designated Invest 90L this morning by NHC. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. According to NHC naming rules, “if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is assigned its original number or name”. Since “the remnant” refers to the primary remnant, and 90L does not fit the definition of a “primary remnant”, the storm will be given a new name should it develop into a tropical storm, according to information posted on the NHC Facebook page. Esau or Jacob–the names of the sons of the biblical Isaac–would be fitting names for 90L, but the next storm on the list of Atlantic storms is Nadine.

Long-range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows a large area of heavy rainfall along the coast due to 90L. The echoes do show some spiral banding behavior, but there is only a slight evidence of rotation to the storm. Infrared satellite loops show that the thunderstorms associated with 90L are not that vigorous and do not have particularly cold cloud tops, and the area covered by the thunderstorms is relatively small. Wind shear is a high 20 – 30 knots over the northern Gulf of Mexico, but is predicted to fall to the moderate range, 10 – 20 knots, by Thursday afternoon. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf have been cooled down considerably by the passage of Hurricane Isaac last week, and are 28 – 28.5°C. This is still plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will increase in organization on Thursday and Friday as it moves slowly south or south-southwest. 90L could become a tropical depression as early as Thursday, though Friday is more likely. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 90L on Thursday afternoon. A trough of low pressure and an associated surface cold front will move southeastwards over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and this trough should be capable of pulling 90L to the northeast to a landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida on Sunday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has strengthened to 50 mph winds, and appears to have a favorable enough environment to become a hurricane later this week. Satellite loops show that this is a small tropical cyclone, far out over the open Atlantic, and none of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a new tropical wave due to move off the coast of Africa on Friday will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. It’s too early to tell if this system might threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Costa Rica Dangerous Earthquake — Tsunami Risk

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Massive earthquake in Costa Rica

Last update: September 5, 2012 at 3:08 pm by By

Massive earthquake in Coasta Rica
A M7.8 earthquake just occurred below the coastal area of Costa Rica
Based on the current parameters this earthquake can be called EXTREMELY DANGEROUS for everybody living in a radius of 40 km around the epicenter.
Earthquake data coming in are varying from very strong (M6.4) up to massive (M7.9)
Same goes for the depth of the earthquake, from 20 km (extremely dangerous) to 40 km (still dangerous at the max. magnitude).
We will have to wait until recalculated numbers are coming in.
The earthquake occurred on top of the North American plate which is subdected by an oceanic plate. Powerful earthquakes in the area are mostly very deep and less dangerous.

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/09/04/major-earthquakes-list-september-5-2012/