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Taiwan Earthquake

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Very strong dangerous (shallow) earthquake in Hualien County, Taiwan

Last update: October 31, 2013 at 3:30 pm by By Armand Vervaeck and James Daniell

Update 15:19 UTC : – A man in Hualien County was crushed by furniture and has been taken to a hospital
– 8 people were trapped in an elevator when the earthquake struck
– The overall damage / injuries are looking fairly good at this time although it is still too soon to be conclusive as we need daylight to have a good overview.

Fallen products from shelves in a supermarket in New Taipei City - image courtesy cqnews.net

Fallen products from shelves in a supermarket in New Taipei City – image courtesy cqnews.net

Update 14:56 UTC : Taiwan Railways reports that 46 trains affecting 9500 people have been delayed due to the earthquake

Update 14:51 UTC : The nuclear power plants in Taiwan are not affected.

Update 14:49 UTC : The Max Wyss theoretical damage engine gave the following values :
ESTIMATE OF HUMAN LOSSES
Injured Exp. min/max: 50/600
Fatalities Exp. min/max: 0/100
These results are mainly based on historical events – ER expects lower values than the minimum values of this calculation

Update 14:41 UTC : The earthquake occurred during darkness (8:02 PM). It is almost midnight right now and we do not expect a lot of news before the early morning hours, but we will of course continue to search for it.

Update 14:38 UTC : A 79 years old woman fell and broke something
Falling tiles are also being reported but nothing else so far.

Update 14:25 UTC : We expect landslides to damage some areas severely.
– USGS has decreased the Magnitude from the original M6.7 to M6.3 – Depth has been changed from 10 km to 12 km.
– Below the CWB list of aftershocks at the time of writing :

Screen Shot 2013-10-31 at 15.27.24Screen Shot 2013-10-31 at 15.26.00

Update 11:20 UTC : – CWB Taiwan is reporting a Magnitude of 6.3 at a depth of 20 km, still very dangerous but less dangerous than the USGS values.

The earthquake is very dangerous and below land !

Pacific Tsunami message (NOT for the Taiwan coast) : NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON  HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
HOWEVER – EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE SOMETIMES GENERATE LOCAL  TSUNAMIS THAT CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS LOCATED WITHIN
A HUNDRED KILOMETERS OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES  IN THE REGION OF THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

Taiwan Intensity scale
Taiwan uses a scale which is more or less similar than Japan. Shaking values of 6 can be compared with JMA5+ which ER considers as potentially damaging :
CWB 6 or Very Strong shaking (Hualien County) : – People have trouble walking due to violent rocking.
– Damage to some buildings; heavy furniture overturns; doors and windows bend.
– Drivers have trouble steering; sand and clay blasts occur.
CWB 5 or Strong Shaking (Nantou, Yilan and Central Hualien Counties) : – Most people are considerably frightened.
– Walls crack; heavy furniture may overturn.
– Noticeably felt by drivers; some chimneys and large archways topple over.

Screen Shot 2013-10-31 at 13.18.55Screen Shot 2013-10-31 at 13.17.50

61km (38mi) SSW of Hualian, Taiwan
61km (38mi) SSE of Buli, Taiwan
62km (39mi) ESE of Lugu, Taiwan
79km (49mi) SE of Nantou, Taiwan
744km (462mi) ENE of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

162 km S of Taipei, Taiwan / pop: 7,871,900 / local time: 20:02:09.0 2013-10-31
46 km S of Hualian, Taiwan / pop: 350,468 / local time: 20:02:09.0 2013-10-31

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 6.3

Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-10-31 20:02:08

GMT/UTC Time : 2013-10-31 12:02:08

Depth (Hypocenter)  : 10 km

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2013/10/31/very-strong-earthquake-taiwan-on-october-31-2013/

West Coast Feeling Fukushima Radiation

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Wednesday, October 23rd 2013 at 5:30 am

Written By:

Michael T. Synder

Originally published on Activist Post. Like them on Facebook.

The map below comes from the Nuclear Emergency Tracking Center. It shows that radiation levels at radiation monitoring stations all over the country are elevated. As you will notice, this is particularly true along the west coast of the United States. Every single day, 300 tons of radioactive water from Fukushima enters the Pacific Ocean. That means that the total amount of radioactive material released from Fukushima is constantly increasing, and it is steadily building up in our food chain.

Ultimately, all of this nuclear radiation will outlive all of us by a very wide margin. They are saying that it could take up to 40 years to clean up the Fukushima disaster, and meanwhile countless innocent people will develop cancer and other health problems as a result of exposure to high levels of nuclear radiation. We are talking about a nuclear disaster that is absolutely unprecedented, and it is constantly getting worse. The following are 28 signs that the west coast of North America is being absolutely fried with nuclear radiation from Fukushima…

1. Polar bears, seals and walruses along the Alaska coastline are suffering from fur loss and open sores…

Wildlife experts are studying whether fur loss and open sores detected in nine polar bears in recent weeks is widespread and related to similar incidents among seals and walruses.

The bears were among 33 spotted near Barrow, Alaska, during routine survey work along the Arctic coastline. Tests showed they had “alopecia, or loss of fur, and other skin lesions,” the U.S. Geological Survey said in a statement.

2. There is an epidemic of sea lion deaths along the California coastline…

At island rookeries off the Southern California coast, 45 percent of the pups born in June have died, said Sharon Melin, a wildlife biologist for the National Marine Fisheries Service based in Seattle. Normally, less than one-third of the pups would die.   It’s gotten so bad in the past two weeks that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared an “unusual mortality event.”

3. Along the Pacific coast of Canada and the Alaska coastline, the population of sockeye salmon is at a historic low.  Many are blaming Fukushima.

4. Something is causing fish all along the west coast of Canada to bleed from their gills, bellies and eyeballs.

5. A vast field of radioactive debris from Fukushima that is approximately the size of California has crossed the Pacific Ocean and is starting to collide with the west coast.

6. It is being projected that the radioactivity of coastal waters off the U.S. west coast could double over the next five to six years.

7. Experts have found very high levels of cesium-137 in plankton living in the waters of the Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and the west coast.

8. One test in California found that 15 out of 15 bluefin tuna were contaminated with radiation from Fukushima.

9. Back in 2012, the Vancouver Sun reported that cesium-137 was being found in a very high percentage of the fish that Japan was selling to Canada…
• 73 percent of mackerel tested

• 91 percent of the halibut

• 92 percent of the sardines

• 93 percent of the tuna and eel

• 94 percent of the cod and anchovies

• 100 percent of the carp, seaweed, shark and monkfish
10. Canadian authorities are finding extremely high levels of nuclear radiation in certain fish samples…

Some fish samples tested to date have had very high levels of radiation: one sea bass sample collected in July, for example, had 1,000 becquerels per kilogram of cesium.

11. Some experts believe that we could see very high levels of cancer along the west coast just from people eating contaminated fish…

“Look at what’s going on now: They’re dumping huge amounts of radioactivity into the ocean — no one expected that in 2011,” Daniel Hirsch, a nuclear policy lecturer at the University of California-Santa Cruz, told Global Security Newswire. “We could have large numbers of cancer from ingestion of fish.”

12. BBC News recently reported that radiation levels around Fukushima are “18 times higher” than previously believed.

13. An EU-funded study concluded that Fukushima released up to 210 quadrillion becquerels of cesium-137 into the atmosphere.

14. Atmospheric radiation from Fukushima reached the west coast of the United States within a few days back in 2011.

15. At this point, 300 tons of contaminated water is pouring into the Pacific Ocean from Fukushima every single day.

16. A senior researcher of marine chemistry at the Japan Meteorological Agency’s Meteorological Research Institute says that “30 billion becquerels of radioactive cesium and 30 billion becquerels of radioactive strontium” are being released into the Pacific Ocean from Fukushima every single day.

17. According to Tepco, a total of somewhere between 20 trillion and 40 trillion becquerels of radioactive tritium have gotten into the Pacific Ocean since the Fukushima disaster first began.

18. According to a professor at Tokyo University, 3 gigabecquerels of cesium-137 are flowing into the port at Fukushima Daiichi every single day.

19. It has been estimated that up to 100 times as much nuclear radiation has been released into the ocean from Fukushima than was released during the entire Chernobyl disaster.

20. One recent study concluded that a very large plume of cesium-137 from the Fukushima disaster will start flowing into U.S. coastal waters early next year…

Ocean simulations showed that the plume of radioactive cesium-137 released by the Fukushima disaster in 2011 could begin flowing into U.S. coastal waters starting in early 2014 and peak in 2016.

21. It is being projected that significant levels of cesium-137 will reach every corner of the Pacific Ocean by the year 2020.

22. It is being projected that the entire Pacific Ocean will soon “have cesium levels 5 to 10 times higher” than what we witnessed during the era of heavy atomic bomb testing in the Pacific many decades ago.

23. The immense amounts of nuclear radiation getting into the water in the Pacific Ocean has caused environmental activist Joe Martino to issue the following warning…

Your days of eating Pacific Ocean fish are over.

24. The Iodine-131, Cesium-137 and Strontium-90 that are constantly coming from Fukushima are going to affect the health of those living the the northern hemisphere for a very, very long time.  Just consider what Harvey Wasserman had to say about this…

Iodine-131, for example, can be ingested into the thyroid, where it emits beta particles (electrons) that damage tissue. A plague of damaged thyroids has already been reported among as many as 40 percent of the children in the Fukushima area. That percentage can only go higher. In developing youngsters, it can stunt both physical and mental growth. Among adults it causes a very wide range of ancillary ailments, including cancer.

Strontium-90’s half-life is around 29 years. It mimics calcium and goes to our bones.

25. According to a recent Planet Infowars report, the California coastline is being transformed into “a dead zone”…

The California coastline is becoming like a dead zone.

If you haven’t been to a California beach lately, you probably don’t know that the rocks are unnaturally CLEAN – there’s hardly any kelp, barnacles, sea urchins, etc. anymore and the tide pools are similarly eerily devoid of crabs, snails and other scurrying signs of life… and especially as compared to 10 – 15 years ago when one was wise to wear tennis shoes on a trip to the beach in order to avoid cutting one’s feet on all the STUFF of life – broken shells, bones, glass, driftwood, etc.

There are also days when I am hard-pressed to find even a half dozen seagulls and/or terns on the county beach.

You can still find a few gulls trolling the picnic areas and some of the restaurants (with outdoor seating areas) for food, of course, but, when I think back to 10 – 15 years ago, the skies and ALL the beaches were literally filled with seagulls and the haunting sound of their cries both day and night…

NOW it’s unnaturally quiet.

26. A study conducted last year came to the conclusion that radiation from the Fukushima nuclear disaster could negatively affect human life along the west coast of North America from Mexico to Alaska “for decades”.

27. According to the Wall Street Journal, it is being projected that the cleanup of Fukushima could take up to 40 years to complete.

28. Yale Professor Charles Perrow is warning that if the cleanup of Fukushima is not handled with 100% precision that humanity could be threatened “for thousands of years“…

Conditions in the unit 4 pool, 100 feet from the ground, are perilous, and if any two of the rods touch it could cause a nuclear reaction that would be uncontrollable. The radiation emitted from all these rods, if they are not continually cool and kept separate, would require the evacuation of surrounding areas including Tokyo. Because of the radiation at the site the 6,375 rods in the common storage pool could not be continuously cooled; they would fission and all of humanity will be threatened, for thousands of years.

Are you starting to understand why so many people are so deeply concerned about what is going on at Fukushima?

from:    http://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/28-signs-west-coast-being-absolutely-fried-nuclear-radiation-fukushima

September Heat Records/Billion Dollar Disasters

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By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:26 PM GMT on October 25, 2013 +24

September 2013 was the globe’s 4th warmest September since records began in 1880, according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The year-to-date period of January – September has been the 6th warmest such period on record. September 2013 global land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 4th warmest on record. September 2013 was the 343nd consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 11th or 3rd warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Wunderground’s weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of September 2013 in his September 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2013, the 4th warmest September for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed across most of Australia and part of central Asia, as well as part of southwestern Canada. Most of central and northern North America, northern Europe, and much of central and southern Asia were much warmer than average. Cooler and much-cooler-than-average temperatures occurred across much of central and eastern Russia, along with most of eastern Europe and western Greenland. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

The five billion-dollar weather disasters of September 2013
Five billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth during September 2013, bringing the world-wide tally of these disasters so far in 2013 to 32, according to the September 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. This is the third highest yearly total for the globe since accurate disaster records began in 2000, according to Senior Scientist Steve Bowen of Aon Benfield. The record highest was 40 billion-dollar disasters in 2010. For comparison, during all of 2012, there were 27 billion-dollar weather disasters; the tally in 2011 was 35 (adjusted for inflation.) The U.S. total so far in 2013 is seven.


Disaster 1. The most damaging billion-dollar weather disaster of September was in Mexico, where Hurricane Manuel made two landfalls along Mexico’s Pacific coast. Flooding from Manuel’s torrential rains caused $4.2 billion in damage and left 169 people dead or missing. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, this was the second most expensive weather-related disaster in Mexican history, behind the $6 billion in damage (2013 dollars) wrought by Hurricane Wilma in October 2005. In this aerial view, we see the landslide triggered by Hurricane Manuel’s rains that killed 43 people in La Pintada, México, on September 19, 2013. (Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty)


Disaster 2. Super Typhoon Usagi made landfall near Shanwei, China on September 22, 2013 as a Category 2 typhoon with 110 mph winds, after skirting the Philippines and Tawian. The storm killed at least 37 people and did $3.8 billion in damage. Property damage was widespread in five Chinese provinces as Usagi damaged at least 101,200 homes. This radar image of Usagi shows that the typhoon had multiple concentric eyewalls as it approached landfall. Image credit: weather.com.cn.


Disaster 3. Record rainfall of 8 – 15″ triggered historic flash flooding across in Colorado September 11 – 12, 2013, killing at least nine people and doing $2 billion in damage. The most significant damage occurred in Boulder, Larimer and El Paso counties after several major rivers and creeks crested at all-time highs. The Office of Emergency Management reported that nearly 20,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in addition to thousands of businesses and other structures. One person was also killed by flooding in New Mexico. In this image, we see damage to Highway 34 along the Big Thompson River, on the road to Estes Park, Colorado. Image credit: Colorado National Guard.


Disaster 4. Category 1 Hurricane Ingrid weakened to a tropical storm with 65 mph winds before hitting Mexico about 200 miles south of the Texas border on September 16, 2013. Ingrid’s heavy rains triggered flooding that killed 23 and did $1.5 billion in damage, making the storm the 7th costliest tropical cyclone in Mexican history. In this image, we see Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid laying siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.


Disaster 5. A series of killing freezes during the second half of September led to extensive agricultural damage in central Chile. A state of emergency was declared after farmers reported that frigid air had destroyed 61% of stoned fruit crops, 57% of almonds, 48% of kiwi crops, and 20% of table grapes. Heavy damage to vineyards also affected wine productivity. Total damage was estimated at $1.15 billion.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 18th month in row, September 2013 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2014, as do the large majority of the El Niño models. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive months for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.4°C below average as of October 21, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since April 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 6th lowest September extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during September was 6th lowest in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the largest September extent since 2009, and a nice change of pace from last year’s all-time record retreat. The Arctic sea ice reached its minimum extent for the year on September 13, and has now begun re-freezing.

New “Tipping Points” episode, “Dangerous Rise of Oceans”, airs Saturday at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT
“Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that began last Saturday on The Weather Channel, airs for the second time on Saturday night, October 26, at 9 pm EDT. The new episode, “Dangerous Rise of Oceans”, goes on an expedition from the Great Southern Ocean to the Great Barrier Reef and Tuvalu, to explore the changing currents and oceans that are driving extreme storms, sea surge and changing the landscape of many small South Pacific communities. The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to climb Mt. Everest and walk to the North and South Poles. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point–a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.


Figure 2. “Tipping Points” host Bernice Notenboom visits the Heron Island Research Station on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef during Saturday’s new episode, “Dangerous Rise of Oceans.”

from:   http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Japan 7.3 Earthquake – FUkushima Tsunami Advisory

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Massive earthquake out of the East Coast Of Honshu, Japan – Extended Tsunami shores advisory

Last update: October 25, 2013 at 5:56 pm by By

Earthquake-report.com is a independent NGO website who only survives because of (mostly small) PRIVATE DONATIONS. Your gift will be highly appreciated.
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Update 17:51 UTC : JMA Japan has extended the reach of the Tsunami waves along almost the full North Eastern Honshu shoreline. NO tsunami higher than 1 meter is expected though

Screen Shot 2013-10-25 at 19.59.10

Screen Shot 2013-10-25 at 19.55.41

Update 17:51 UTC : More information about the expected tsunami (max. wave 1 meter) –  IWATE PREF.  1 m, MIYAGI PREF. #1 m, FUKUSHIMA PREF.  1 m, IBARAKI PREF. 1 m and UJUKURI AND SOTOBO AREA, CHIBA PREF. 1 m.
What means a Tsunami height of 1 meter ? : 1 m   People will be caught in a strong current in the sea. Fish farming facilities will be washed away and small vessels will capsize.

Update 17:49 UTC : Some stronger waves (tsunami advisory) are still expected (18:00 UTC and 18:20 UTC) :

Screen Shot 2013-10-25 at 19.47.14

Update 17:39 UTC : Tsunami message for the Pacific Ocean (many people are waiting for this ) – NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

Update 17:36 UTC : The epicenter of this earthquake is in the vicinity of Joban Seamount Chain (underwater volcano).

Update 17:34 UTC : We are convinced that the shaking will NOT be damaging. The maximum shaking value as reported by the Japanese agency JMA is JMA4 (Miyagi-ken Hokubu, Miyagi-ken Nambu, Miyagi-ken Chubu, Fukushima-ken Nakadori, Ibaraki-ken Hokubu, Tochigi-ken Hokubu and Tochigi-ken Nambu)
JMA4 : * Most people are startled.
* Hanging objects such as lamps swing significantly.
* Unstable ornaments may fall.

Update 17:27 UTC : JMA Japan reports now a Magntude of 6.8, a lot weaker than the initially reported 7.3 (by other agencies)

Update 17:17 UTC  : Max. intensity 4JMA, thats not damaging (preliminary report)
Update 17:20 UTC  : Tsunami advisory for FUKUSHIMA
Update 17:23 UTC : The epicenter is luckily hundreds of kms out of the coast

Image courtesy JMA Japan

Image courtesy JMA Japan

325km (202mi) ESE of Ishinomaki, Japan
326km (203mi) E of Namie, Japan
331km (206mi) SE of Ofunato, Japan
333km (207mi) ESE of Yamoto, Japan
475km (295mi) ENE of Tokyo, Japan

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 7.3

Local Time (conversion only below land) : Unknown

GMT/UTC Time : 2013-10-25 17:10:17

Depth (Hypocenter)  : 5 km

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2013/10/25/massive-earthquake-off-east-coast-of-honshu-japan-on-october-25-2013/

Winter Forecast fr/The Weather Space

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2013 – 2014 Winter Forecast Released From TheWeatherSpace.com

tws1314seasonmonth

NOTE: The ONLY Way Above Normal is CALIFORNIA for Precipitation … It is not the orange color in the Eastern USA … Orange is Below normal precip!

NOTE: This is the AVERAGE of all three months, Dec/Jan/Feb …

Dec – nationwide warm
Jan – Warm west, cold east
Feb – nationwide warm

Discussion:  Storm pattern for this does not begin till December so anything before this does not count.  During the main winter season of December, January, and February we will see most of he USA under above average temperatures.  With an active southern jet stream and split flow pattern over the Pacific Northwest, this looks to bring the storm track across the Southern USA, impacting California with above average precipitation.  Although this is not an El Nino year, this forecast is made by other means not disclosed.

The active southern branch of the jet will bring above average temperatures to most of the country, with the exception of the extreme Northeastern part from New England through Maine where temperatures will be below normal with an active snow track.

Areas across Texas and into Florida will be in this southern branch jet stream, which means that a number of strong surface lows will develop and bring above average precipitation to both states.  In fact, this pattern brings severe thunderstorms and tornadoes to Florida, and possibly another March 1993 type event.

Furthermore the storm track will go from Florida up through the New England / Northeastern USA.  Despite being above average in temperatures for the season, cold shots will always be likely and one or two storms may become strong nor’easters as this pattern favors such …

The pattern brings surface lows through KS/MO/IA for Blizzard Conditions across Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota.  This will become the norm if lows branch off at the surface from the southern branch jet stream.

The pattern also favors normal temperatures for the Pacific Northwest, with normal rainfall … some areas will see below normal rainfall in those spots though.  This season does not favor an active storm season for the Pacific Northwest.

from:    http://www.theweatherspace.com/2013/10/14/2013-2014-winter-forecast-released-from-theweatherspace-com/

More on Bohol, Phillipines 7.2 Quake

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Massive extremely dangerous earthquake in Bohol, Philippines – At least 198 people killed, 11 missing, over 600 injured, around 4 billion PHP damage, 7 billion PHP reconstruction costs.

Last update: October 24, 2013 at 9:33 am by By Armand Vervaeck and James Daniell

Understanding the Bohol, Philippines earthquake

What happened exactly in Bohol?
At 8:12 AM on 15 October 2013, Tuesday, a destructive earthquake of magnitude 7.2 shook the island of Bohol and nearby provinces. Smaller-magnitude earthquakes followed afterwards, and as of 1:00 pm, 16 October 2013, 885 earthquakes have been recorded by the PHIVOLCS seismic monitoring network. At least 15 events were reportedly felt in the epicentral area. The main shock and succeeding aftershocks were located in the vicinity of Bohol. These recorded events were shallow, with a depth of at most 32 kilometers. Based on spatial distribution of succeeding events and characteristics of the earthquake, the event is tectonic in origin.
Based on preliminary intensity reports, the strongest ground shaking at PEIS VII (comparable with MMI VIII) was felt at Tagbilaran City and several cities in the province of Cebu. Neighboring island provinces of Cebu, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Camiguin, Panay, Leyte, and several areas in northeastern Mindanao felt the earthquake at varying intensities of PEIS I-VI.

Screen Shot 2013-10-24 at 11.23.40-bis

Moderate-magnitude (M5 to 6.9) earthquakes have also affected Bohol Island in the past!
On 08 February 1990, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake occurred at Bohol generated by an offshore reverse fault east of the island. Sixteen municipalities felt the strongest intensity of ground shaking at PEIS VIII. There were reports of severe property damages, numerous casualties, hundreds injured, and several thousands homeless. The towns of Jagna, Duero, Guindulman, Garcia Hernandez, and Valencia experienced tsunami inundation.

Why do earthquakes occur in Bohol?
Bohol Island is one of the seismically active areas in the country. Instrumental monitoring of earthquakes for the past century has detected many small to moderate-magnitude earthquakes in Bohol Island. There is at least one known earthquake generator on the island, the East Bohol Fault. In addition, there are other local faults which can be sources of small to large magnitude earthquakes. Earthquakes can also occur offshore or undersea because of local offshore faults near the island or trenches in the vicinity of the region.

Can these present earthquakes indicate volcanic activity?
No. There are no volcanoes in Bohol Island.

What can we expect from the current earthquake activity?
The current seismic trend indicates that the magnitude 7.2 earthquake on 15 October 2013 is the mainshock, and the succeeding small magnitude earthquakes are the aftershocks. Aftershocks are expected, some of which will be felt (ER:and some of them might be dangerous). These may continue for weeks to months, but diminishing in number and strength as time passes. In this case, a higher magnitude earthquake related to this event is no longer expected to occur (ER: True, not related to this event, but as earthquakes cannot be predicted and as the Philippines have many fault systems, a new powerful earthquake can never be excluded).

What can we expect after a large-magnitude/high-intensity earthquake like this?
People are reminded to be cautious of structures visibly weakened or with signs of damage by the 15 October 2013 earthquake, as these may be further damaged by succeeding earthquakes. Strong ground shaking may cause extensive damage to or even the collapse of houses, buildings, bridges, and other infrastructures. Collapsed structures usually account for most of the casualties during a strong earthquake. Falling objects may also cause injuries.

Congratulations to Phivolcs Philippines for their very good explanation of this earthquake

Why are some places sinking and is the sea retreating away from the shore in other locations ?
Answer : deformation and partly liquefaction. In some locations
Isla Batasan is one of the islands located between Bohol and Cebu. It is experiencing sudden floods, causing its residents to believe that their island is slowly sinking. Phivolcs explains that there is indeed a big possibility that some islands may start sinking after the earthquake, due to liquefaction and earthquake deformation. Liquefaction happens when the soil loses its strength and stiffness due to an earthquake, causing it to soften and behave like liquid. Earthquake deformation, on the other hand, refers to a change in the original shape of a material.

Screen Shot 2013-10-24 at 10.57.29

Retreating sea : This can only be explained by an upthrust of some parts of the island. More detailed measurements in the near future will show serious deformations as can be seen on the images below.  The focal mechanism below shows a mainly thrust earthquake = 2 parts of the fault are pressed into each other. The earthquake was triggered when the extreme forces became too big. The released energy did create all the deformations.

Retreating see in the thrust part of the island

Retreating see in the thrust part of the island

Screen Shot 2013-10-24 at 11.05.54

Sinkholes are also generated by the shaking of the underground. Some sinkholes are produced when underground caves are caving in (the island of Bohol had a lot of caves) others are made by the shaking of loose material (some sources say that limestone is abundant in the islands).

Screen Shot 2013-10-24 at 10.59.06

Tectonic summary according to the USGS (a little more detailed)
The October 15, 2013 M 7.1 earthquake near the city of Catigbian on Bohol Island, Philippines, occurred as the result of shallow reverse faulting on a moderately inclined fault dipping either to the northwest, or to the southeast. The depth of the event indicates it ruptured a fault within the crust of the Sunda plate, rather than on the deeper subduction zone plate boundary interface. At the latitude of this earthquake, the Philippine Sea plate moves towards the west-northwest with respect to the Sunda plate at a rate of approximately 10 cm/yr, subducting beneath the Philippine Islands several hundred kilometers to the east of the October 15 earthquake at the Philippine Trench.
The Philippine Islands straddle a region of complex tectonics at the intersection of three major tectonic plates (the Philippine Sea, Sunda and Eurasia plates). As such, the islands are familiar with large and damaging earthquakes, and the region within 500 km of the October 15 earthquake has hosted 19 events of M6 or greater, a dozen of which have been shallow (0-70 km).

Update 23.10.2013 13:20 UTC:
Bad news once again with now 209 presumed dead. The other numbers remain the same.
The infrastructure cost has risen to 1.426 billion PHP counted (approx. 35 million USD).

Update 23.10.2013 04:35 UTC:
Unfortunately again we have had a rising death toll without reducing the missing. 195 dead and 12 missing is the current count.
– 651 have been injured
– 53,000 homes have been damaged – 14,000 of these have been destroyed.
– The public infrastructure loss including all hospitals, buildings, roads, flood control, schools is 1.097 billion PHP (25.47 million USD)
– 344,437 people are displaced (approximately the same amount of people as after the Tohoku earthquake.

Update 22.10.2013 07:35 UTC:
– All towns are now fully accessible by road given the hard work of DPWH in the last week. This is a huge accomplishment and will make it easier for relief to flow.
– The estimates of homeless range from 70,000 to 150,000 long term, with 377,000 currently displaced.
– The affected number has dropped below 3 million with a few barangays removing their “affected status”.

Update 22.10.2013 03:05 UTC:
The fault has been found! A previously unknown fault caused the Bohol earthquake. It caused at least 3m movement across a road in Inabanga. Click above to view the news article (GMA).
– The total number of destroyed buildings is at 14,253 (extra buildings in Loon and Maribojoc counted). It is still expected to rise further.
– The total number of damaged buildings is at 39,186.

for more information and to see others affected, photos, current conditions, etc., go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2013/10/15/very-strong-earthquake-mindanao-philippines-on-october-15-2013/

More on Bee Colony Collapse

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Scientists discover another cause of bee deaths, and it’s really bad news

So what is with all the dying bees? Scientists have been trying to discover this for years. Meanwhile, bees keep dropping like… well, you know.

Is it mites? Pesticides? Cell phone towers? What is really at the root? Turns out the real issue really scary, because it is more complex and pervasive than thought.

Quartz reports:

Scientists had struggled to find the trigger for so-called Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) that has wiped out an estimated 10 million beehives, worth $2 billion, over the past six years. Suspects have included pesticides, disease-bearing parasites and poor nutrition. But in a first-of-its-kind study published today in the journal PLOS ONE, scientists at the University of Maryland and the US Department of Agriculture have identified a witch’s brew of pesticides and fungicides contaminating pollen that bees collect to feed their hives. The findings break new ground on why large numbers of bees are dying though they do not identify the specific cause of CCD, where an entire beehive dies at once.

The researchers behind that study in PLOS ONE — Jeffery S. Pettis, Elinor M. Lichtenberg, Michael Andree, Jennie Stitzinger, Robyn Rose, Dennis vanEngelsdorp — collected pollen from hives on the east coast, including cranberry and watermelon crops, and fed it to healthy bees. Those bees had a serious decline in their ability to resist a parasite that causes Colony Collapse Disorder. The pollen they were fed had an average of nine different pesticides and fungicides, though one sample of pollen contained a deadly brew of 21 different chemicals. Further, the researchers discovered that bees that ate pollen with fungicides were three times more likely to be infected by the parasite.

The discovery means that fungicides, thought harmless to bees, is actually a significant part of Colony Collapse Disorder. And that likely means farmers need a whole new set of regulations about how to use fungicides. While neonicotinoids have been linked to mass bee deaths — the same type of chemical at the heart of the massive bumble bee die off in Oregon — this study opens up an entirely new finding that it is more than one group of pesticides, but a combination of many chemicals, which makes the problem far more complex.

And it is not just the types of chemicals used that need to be considered, but also spraying practices. The bees sampled by the authors foraged not from crops, but almost exclusively from weeds and wildflowers, which means bees are more widely exposed to pesticides than thought.

The authors write, “[M]ore attention must be paid to how honey bees are exposed to pesticides outside of the field in which they are placed. We detected 35 different pesticides in the sampled pollen, and found high fungicide loads. The insecticides esfenvalerate and phosmet were at a concentration higher than their median lethal dose in at least one pollen sample. While fungicides are typically seen as fairly safe for honey bees, we found an increased probability of Nosema infection in bees that consumed pollen with a higher fungicide load. Our results highlight a need for research on sub-lethal effects of fungicides and other chemicals that bees placed in an agricultural setting are exposed to.”

While the overarching issue is simple — chemicals used on crops kill bees — the details of the problem are increasingly more complex, including what can be sprayed, where, how, and when to minimize the negative effects on bees and other pollinators while still assisting in crop production. Right now, scientists are still working on discovering the degree to which bees are affected and by what. It will still likely be a long time before solutions are uncovered and put into place. When economics come into play, an outright halt in spraying anything at all anywhere is simply impossible.

Quartz notes, “Bee populations are so low in the US that it now takes 60% of the country’s surviving colonies just to pollinate one California crop, almonds. And that’s not just a west coast problem—California supplies 80% of the world’s almonds, a market worth $4 billion.”

from:    http://www.treehugger.com/natural-sciences/scientists-discover-another-cause-bee-deaths-and-its-really-bad-news.html

Crete, Greece 6.4 Earthquake

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Very Strong slightly damaging earthquake at intermediate depth near Crete, Greece

Last update: October 12, 2013 at 5:34 pm by By Ashish Khanal

Update 15:19 UTC : More reports are coming in from landslides and fallen tiles of roofs, everything we consider slight damage. Due to the fact that insurance companies will have to intervene to pay back some damage for those insured against earthquakes, we are calling this earthquake a CatDat Orange (CATDAT James Daniell)

Some of the experience reports of our readers :

Chania : was in supermarket and all the produce jumped off the shelves onto the floor. They had to close the shop (large Marinopoulos at Mournies)Chania – I was in the smallest room of the apartment, which was a stroke of luck, as it happens. When it did happen I very quickly recognised it as an earthquake, but as it escalated I soon realised this to be by far the strongest I’d ever experienced. Seemed to go on for close to a minute; thankfully the apartment withstood the swaying with far more calm than me, given the empirical evidence from the smallest room in the apartment!
Chania : we could see earth moving and cars shaking. Cars alarms went off. Many were scared. We were also scared, but happy to be on a beach, and not in a building.

Update 15:19 UTC : According to «Flashnews.gr» (with news from Crete) vibration was long and there has been slight damage mainly glass doors smashed in the Old Town of Chania, while testimonials speak for marble that fell from balconies in the center. Kritika through said a citizen was slightly injured in his attempt to jump from the window.

Update 15:06 UTC : Some early reports are mentioning minor damage in houses due to fallen objects, nothing more at the moment.
The Greece Institute of Geodynamics is somewhat different than the other sources. GIG reports a Magnitude of 6.2 but at a depth of 60 km (less dangerous than the other values).

Screen Shot 2013-10-12 at 17.12.28

Update  14:26 UTC : The island of Crete had once again a narrow escape from a damaging earthquake. 30 km more to the east and the damage might have been very huge, even at the current depth  as the sea is weakening the impact considerably.

Update  14:10 UTC : Below the seismogram as recorded at Gavdos (courtesy Geofon). The oscillations after the mainshock are small aftershocks

Update  14:03 UTC : The earthquake was felt completely different in various parts of Crete. As could be expected stronger to the west of the island than in the middle or at the eastern side.

Screen Shot 2013-10-12 at 16.06.46

Update  13:53 UTC : The theoretical damage engine from QAlarm has reports a max. of 20 injured and no fatalities based on more dangerous data than expected by EMSC (M6.6 at a depth of 40 km)

Update 13:47 UTC : The earthquake has also been felt well on the Northern African coast (IE Alexandria in Egypt)

Update 13:45 UTC : EMSC has changed his earthquake data into a Magnitude of 6.4 at a depth of 47 km, normally a lot more dangerous than the initial values, but based on the received intensities we can confirm our earlier expectations.

Update 13:41 UTC : We expect a lot of moderate to weak aftershocks for the coming hours and days.

Update 13:38 UTC : The shaking intensity values we are currently receiving from our readers are showing a moderate to strong shaking, which is normally just below the damage level. In other words based on all available data we have at this moment only slight damage is still a possibility.

Update 13:37 UTC : The depth of 60 km (preliminary data) is also the reason that the earthquake will have been felt in a very wicde area of hundreds of km.

Update 13:35 UTC : We do not expect any serious tsunami treat because of the depth of the earthquake (Focal Mechanism is not known yet at this moment).

Due to the intermediate depth of the earthquake, we expect maximum slight damage on the eastern part of Crete.

Screen Shot 2013-10-12 at 15.32.55

276 km S of Athens, Greece / pop: 729,137 / local time: 16:11:53.0 2013-10-12
171 km W of Irákleion, Greece / pop: 137,154 / local time: 16:11:53.0 2013-10-12
67 km W of Chaniá, Greece / pop: 54,565 / local time: 16:11:53.0 2013-10-12
30 km W of Plátanos, Greece / pop: 1,077 / local time: 16:11:53.0 2013-10-12

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 6.4

Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-10-12 16:11:54

GMT/UTC Time : 2013-10-12 13:11:54

Depth (Hypocenter)  : 47 km

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2013/10/12/very-strong-earthquake-crete-greece-on-october-12-2013/

Tropical Cyclones & Typhoons

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Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin has made landfall on the northeast coast of India near the town of Gopalpur (population 7,000) at 16 UTC (noon EDT) Saturday, October 12, 2013. Phailin was weakening substantially at landfall, due to interaction with land, and was rated a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), four hours before landfall. The pressure bottomed out at 938 mb in Gopalpur as the eye passed over, and the city reported sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 85 mph, in the eyewall. A 938 mb pressure is what one expects to find in a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, using the “Dvorak technique” of satellite wind and pressure estimation. Satellite images show that Phailin’s intense thunderstorms have warmed and shrunk in areal coverage, and radar out of Visakhapanam, India also shows a weakening of the storm’s echoes as it pushes inland. Phailin is bringing torrential rains of over an inch per hour, as estimated by microwave satellite instruments.


Figure 1. Radar image of Phailin at landfall. Image credit: IMD.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 12, 2013. At the time, Phailin was a top-end Category 4 storm with winds of 150 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Damage from Phailin
Phailin is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That storm hit with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, and brought a storm surge of 5.9 meters (19 feet) to the coast. Phailin should be able to drive a similar-sized storm surge to the coast, since it is larger in areal extent than the 1999 cyclone (although somewhat weaker, with winds perhaps 20 – 30 mph lower.) Phailin’s storm surge and Category 3 to 4 winds will cause near-catastrophic damage to a 50-mile wide swath of the coast where the eyewall comes ashore, and to the right. Hurricane Katrina was weaker at landfall than Phailin, but Katrina had hurricane-force winds that covered a much larger area, making Katrina’s storm surge much more devastating than Phailin’s will be. I think the main danger from Phailin will be from its winds. I am particularly concerned about Phailin’s wind damage potential in the city of Brahmapur (population 350,000), the 58th largest city in India. Brahmapur lies about ten miles inland, and will likely experience sustained hurricane-force winds for several hours. Phailin’s flooding potential is another huge concern, as rainfall amounts of 6 – 12 inches will fall along a swath over 100 miles inland, triggering life-threatening flash flooding.

How strong was Phailin?
Questions have been raised about the India Meteorological Department (IMD) assessments of Phailin’s strength, which were considerably lower than that of the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Both centers use satellite estimates rather than direct measurements of the winds, so we don’t know which center is correct. It is true that satellite estimates using the same techniques give different results for the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans–i.e., a storm with the same appearance on satellite imagery will be weaker in the Atlantic than in the Pacific (see this chart of the differences.) It may be that this is the case in the Indian Ocean as well. IMD has looked at some buoy data to try and calibrate their satellite strength estimates, but high-end tropical cyclones are uncommon enough in the Indian Ocean that I doubt we really know whether or not Indian Ocean cyclones have the same winds as a hurricane in the Atlantic with the same satellite signature. Another thing to consider is that the IMD uses 10-minute average winds for their advisories, and JTWC uses 1-minute, so the winds in the IMD advisories will be lower by at least 6%, due to the longer averaging period. This issue could be cleared up if India had its own hurricane hunter aircraft; there have been some high-level discussions about India getting a C-130 aircraft like the U.S. Air Force uses to fly into tropical cyclones and take measurements of the actual winds.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Nari, taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on October 12, 2013. At the time, Nari was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Nari hits the Philippines
Thirteen people were killed and 2.1 million people lost power on the main Philippine island of Luzon afterTyphoon Nari hit on Friday night near midnight local time. Nari was a Category 3 typhoon with 115 mph winds a few hours before landfall. The core of the storm passed about 80 miles north of the capital of Manila, sparing the capital major flooding, but the storm dumped torrential rains in excess of ten inches to the northeast of Manilla. Passage over Luzon weakened Nari to a Category 1 storm, but it is already beginning to re-organize over the South China Sea between the Philippines and Vietnam. Nari is under moderate wind shear of 15 – 20 knots, which should keep intensification relatively slow, and increasing interaction with land will act to slow intensification on Sunday and Monday. Nari could be near Category 3 strength with 115 mph winds by Monday, and landfall in Vietnam is expected around 21 UTC on Monday.

Typhoon Wipha a threat to Japan
Category 1 Typhoon Wipha is intensifying as it heads northwest towards Japan, and the storm is expected to reach major Category 3 strength by Monday. By Tuesday, Wipha will recurve to the northeast and begin weakening, passing very close to Tokyo, Japan, sometime between 00 – 12 UTC on Wednesday. High winds and heavy rains from Wipha may be a concern for the Fukushima nuclear site, where workers continue to struggle with high radiation levels in the wake of the 2011 tsunami that damaged the reactors.

98L in the Eastern Atlantic weakening
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west to west-northwest at 10 – 15 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has lost most of its organization and heavy thunderstorms since this morning. The disturbance is under a high 20 – 30 knots of wind shear, and the shear is expected to remain high for the next three days. The UKMET model shows some weak development of 98L by early next week, but the European and GFS models do not. In their 2 pm EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 30%, and 5-day odds of 30%. 98L’s projected west-northwest track is expected take it close to the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday, according to the 00Z Saturday run of the European model.

Thanks go to wunderground member thunderfrance for posting the link to the weather station at Gopalpur, India.

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Strong Quake near Brest, Bretagne

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Forte séisme près de Brest, Bretagne, France

Last update: October 11, 2013 at 2:19 pm by By Ashish Khanal

Pour votre information : Une plume pour Le Télégramme qui font un très bon rapport de ce tremblement de terre. Congratulations.

Update 14:11 UTC (16:11 en France)  : Lorsque la presse locale écrit maintenant “aucun dommage n’a été encore signalé”, cela doit être considéré comme un rapport provisoire et non comme un rapport final. Notre expérience montre que dans les pays développés, nous avons besoin d’au moins 6 à 10 heures avant que nous ayons une idée définitive de la situation.
When the local press writes now “no damage has been reported yet”, this has to be seen as a temporary report and not as a final report. Our experience shows that in developed countries, we need at least 6 to 10 hours before we have a conclusive idea of the situation.

Update : Il faut savoir que des séismes de Magnitude 4.0 ou plus sont vraiment rare en France. Tous ceux et celles qui l’ont sentis aujourd’hui ont vécu un évenement assez spéciale :)

Update : Important aussi est de savoir que le calcul exacte de l’epicentre est très difficile et qu’il faut toujours considerer un erreur de plusiers km. Selon les relevés français, l’épicentre se situe à Loperhet, autres sources disent Saint-Thonan.

Update : our opinion : “slight damage possible” because of the type of houses in Bretagne. Maximum radius for damage approx. 10 km. Damage will be mainly crcks in walls, fallen objects inside the house, fallen chimneys and fallen roof tiles.
Notre avis: “légers dégâts possible” en raison du type de maisons en Bretagne. Rayon maximum de dommages env. 10 km. Dommages sera principalement des fissures dans les murs, les objets tombés à l’intérieur de la maison, cheminées tombées etc.

Update : Nos lecteurs nous informent qu’il y avait une replique juste après le premier choque.

Une séisme relativement severe (Magnitude 4) s’est produit a un peu plus de 20 km de Brest. Basée sur notre experience, le Magnitude en relation avec le profondeur de 5 km est just en dessous du niveau de dégats. Esperons cela.

Nous nous excusons pout nôtre Français. On est conscient que c’est pas fameux, mais ons pense qu’il est mieux comme ca que d’écrire en Anglais :)

Plan de detail avec epicentre

Plan de detail avec epicentre

181 km SW of Saint Peter Port, Guernsey / pop: 16,488 / local time: 13:52:40.0 2013-10-11
33 km N of Quimper, France / pop: 63,849 / local time: 14:52:40.0 2013-10-11
4 km SW of Le Faou, France / pop: 1,703 / local time: 14:52:40.0 2013-10-11

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 4

Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-10-11 14:52:40

GMT/UTC Time : 2013-10-11 12:52:40

Depth (Hypocenter)  : 2 km

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2013/10/11/moderate-earthquake-france-on-october-11-2013/