Wind speed at 18,000 feet in the atmosphere. The darkest shade represents winds of up to 150 mph.
CREDIT: NOAA/NASA.
A warm spell and a low-dipping jet stream are fueling the monster storms that are spawning tornadoes today across a wide swath of the country, weather experts said.
Today, the Storm Prediction Center has received 311 reports of severe weather, including 48 reported tornadoes and a few reported fatalities. This massive storm system also spawned deadly tornadoes on Leap Day, which raked Kansas, Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee. The severe storms killed at least 12 people and included a strong EF-4 twister in Harrisburg, Ill., a rarity for February.
As of this morning, the severe storm risk area covered an estimated 162 million people, or 56 percent of the United States, according to weather experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
While the main tornado season runs from spring to early summer, this year’s early outbreaks show that tornadoes can form under a variety of conditions and strike during fall and winter, too. This year’s mild winter and warm start to meteorological spring has upped the risk of dangerous storms.
“We’ve been in a very warm pattern all winter,” said meteorologist Mark Rose of the National Weather Service in Birmingham, Ala. “Because it has been so mild, it increases our chances for severe weather.”
Also behind this week’s twisters is a low-dipping jet stream. The jet stream is moving at a blistering pace today across the Mid-South and Ohio River Valley. NOAA satellites clocked the jet stream at 150 mph (241 kph) across these regions. The jet stream is bringing cold air from Canada to mix with the warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Where these two differing air masses meet is often an area of severe weather, hail, winds and even tornadoes. [Infographic: 2012’s Active Tornado Season]
The warm air and rapid jet stream will keep fueling the storms thru tonight and into the weekend, according to NOAA. Weather experts continue to warn that dangerous tornado outbreaks could explode throughout the evening and overnight hours across the Mid- and Deep South and Ohio River Valley.
“We actually are looking at a risk from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes to west of the Mississippi to the East Coast,” Craig Fugate, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, told the Weather Channel. “And these storms are moving fast.”
The winter of 2012 blew out like a lion yesterday, with a massive Leap Day storm that pounded the Midwest with deadly tornadoes and heavy snow. A violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph winds tore through Harrisburg, Illinois at 4:56 am CST yesterday morning, killing six, injuring approximately 100, and damaging 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path seven miles long and 250 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. Another person was killed in southwest Missouri near Buffalo when am EF-2 tornado ripped through a mobile home park late Wednesday night. Twelve others were injured in the mobile home park. Four additional deaths occurred due to tornadoes in Cassville, MO, Smithville, TN, and Monterey, TN yesterday, bringing the death toll of the two-day severe weather outbreak to eleven. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri yesterday morning, injuring 33 people. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theaters–Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. The Branson Landing on Lake Taneycomo and the Veterans Memorial Museum were also heavily damaged. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. An EF-2 tornado also hit the small town of Harveyville, Kansas (population 275), twenty miles southwest of Topeka, at 9:03 pm Wednesday night. The tornado destroyed 40 – 60% of the structures and injured twelve, three critically. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions of dollars, and could add up to be the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S.
Yesterday’s tornado outbreak’s place in history
Yesterday was the deadliest day for U.S. tornadoes since May 24, 2011, when 18 people died in a Midwest tornado outbreak–part of the five-day outbreak that brought the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado, which killed 158 people and injured 1150. The preliminary tornado total from February 28 – 29 of 2012 is 30, making it the largest February tornado outbreak since February 17 – 18, 2008, when 31 twisters touched down. Yesterday’s Harrisburg, Illinois tornado was the deadliest February tornado since the February 10, 2009 EF-4 twisterthat struck Southern Oklahoma near Ardmore, killing eight. The deadliest February tornado in recorded history occurred on February 21, 1971, when an F-4 tornado ripped a 202-mile path through Mississippi, killing 58 people.
Figure 2. By analyzing both the rotational velocity of the storm systems (the spinning of tornadoes has high rotational velocity compared to the surrounding storms) and presence of hail, scientists at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory have developed a product that approximates the track of tornadoes, shown here for the February 29, 2012 storms. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.
Violent tornadoes in February: a rarity
Violent February tornadoes are rare in February. The Tornado History Project lists eighteen EF-4 and one EF-5 tornadoes in the U.S. during the month of February since 1950–an average of one violent February tornado every three years. Part of the reason for this is the lack of warm, unstable air so early in the year. However, this year’s unusually mild winter has led to ocean temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico that are approximately 1°C above average–among the top ten warmest values on record, going back to the 1800s. Averaged over the month of February, the highest sea surface temperatures on record in the Gulf between 20 – 30°N, 85 – 95°W occurred in 2002, when the waters were 1.34°C above average. Yesterday’s tornado outbreak was fueled, in part, by high instability created by unusually warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico due to the high water temperatures there.
Heavy snow hits Upper Midwest
The same storm system also brought the heaviest snows of the winter to portions of the Upper Midwest, which has received scant snowfall this winter. Widespread heavy snow fell in northern Wisconsin, where Mincqua recorded 18 inches. South Dakota, Central Minnesota, and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula also received snow amounts in excess of a foot. The storm also brought moderate snows to Northern New England, with southern Vermont receiving more than 8 inches. The latest NOAA Storm Summary has detailed storm total accumulation info.
Figure 3. Snowfall amounts for the 3-day period ending at 7 am local time Thursday, March 1, 2012. Image credit: NOAA Southern Region Headquarters.
New tornado outbreak likely on Friday
The storm system that brought yesterday’s tornadoes and snow has moved into Canada and New England, and the threat of severe weather is minimal today in the Midwest. However, a new storm system is expected to form over Missouri early Friday and track northeastward, unleashing a new tornado outbreak over Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Indiana, and Ohio. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in their “Moderate Risk” area for severe weather Friday, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. Consult ourSevere Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.
Figure 4. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Tennessee, Kentucky, and portions of surrounding states in their “Moderate Risk” area for severe weather on Friday. This is one level below the highest level of alert, “High Risk.”
Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornado Portlight is sending people into the Harrisburg, IL, area at this time in response to the tornado disaster there. They will be assessing needs there and surrounding areas. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the un-served, under-served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!
Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:25 PM GMT on February 08, 2012
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It wasn’t the warmest January in U.S. history, but it sure didn’t seem like winter last month–the contiguous U.S. experienced its fourth warmest January on record, and the winter period December 2011 – January 2012 was also the fourth warmest in the 117-year record, reported NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center yesterday. The percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures was 56 percent–the second highest value on record. Thirteen of the 550 major U.S. cities with automated airport weather stations broke or tied all-time records for their hottest January temperature:
Craig, CO 82°F
Bakersfield, CA 82°F
Alexandria, LA 83°F
Duluth, MN 48°F
Minot, ND 61°F
Mitchell, SD 68°F
Fargo, ND 55°F
Jamestown, ND 56°F
Huron, SD 65°F
Aberdeen, SD 63°F
Iron Mountain, MI 52°F
Alma, GA 83°F
Omaha, NE 69°F
However, extremely cold air settled in over Alaska in January, and several cities in Alaska had their coldest average January temperatures on record: Nome (-16.6 degrees F), Bethel (-17.3 degrees F), McGrath (-28.5 degrees F), and Bettles (-35.6 degrees F).
Figure 1. State-by-state rankings of temperatures for January 2012. Nine states had top-ten warmest Januarys on record, while no states had below-average temperatures in January. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.
28th driest January for the contiguous U.S.
The first week of January was almost precipitation-free across the entire contiguous U.S., but a series of storms over Texas, the Ohio Valley, and the Pacific Northwest later in the month boosted precipitation totals enough to make January 2012 the 28th driest in the 118-year period of record. Remarkably, Texas had its 30th wettest January on record, and was the 2nd wettest state during the month. Texas also had a very wet December, their 19th wettest December. It is very rare for Texas to receive so much precipitation during a La Niña winter. Texas had not experienced two consecutive months with above-average precipitation since January – February 2010, during the last El Niño event.
Figure 2. State-by-state rankings of precipitation for January 2012. Three states had top-ten driest Januarys on record, while no states had a top-ten wettest January. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.
3rd least-snowy January
According to the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the average U.S. snow extent during January was the 3rd smallest January snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. The National Weather Service sends out a daily “Weather and Almanac” product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on underground. The February 6 statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter show that only fifteen cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 6, and 155 had received below-average snowfall.
Figure 3. The new “Blue Marble” image of Earth on January 4, 2012, as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the new Suomi NPP satellite. The U.S. and Canada are virtually snow-free and cloud-free, which is extremely rare for a January day. The lack of snow in the mountains of the Western U.S. is particularly unusual. I doubt one could find a January day this cloud-free with so little snow on the ground throughout the entire satellite record, going back to the early 1960s. NOAA’sAdvanced Hydrologic Prediction Service shows that only one state–Washington–had areas where precipitation accumulated more than 0.25″ on January 4, 2012, which is an extraordinary occurrence for a January day. Image credit:NASA.
Drought expands in January
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, as of January 31st, 2012, about 3.3 percent of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing the worst category of drought–called D4 or exceptional drought–about the same as the beginning of the month. However, the percent area of the U.S. experiencing drought of any severity increased from 32 percent at the beginning of January to 38 percent at the end of the month. Most of the drought expansion occurred across the Upper Midwest and the western states.
2nd most January tornadoes on record
With 95 preliminary tornado reports, January 2012 is likely to end up with the 2nd most January tornadoes since 1950 (the record is 218, set in January 1999.)
Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:06 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
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Brutal winter cold continues over most of Europe, where at least 200 people have died in a cold wave that began January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, where the temperature bottomed out at -17°F (-27°C) at the capital of Kyivthis morning. It was the second coldest day of the cold wave, behind the -28°C reading of February 2. These temperatures are the coldest winter weather in six years in Ukraine, and at least 101 deaths are being blamed on the cold there. Also hard-hit has been Poland, where 37 people, most of them homeless, have died from the cold. Rome, Italy experienced a rare snowfall today, only its second day with snow during the past fifteen years. Very cold temperatures 10 – 20°C below average will continue for another seven days in Europe before gradually moderating late next week.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average as analyzed by the GFS model, for February 2, 2012. Remarkably cold air was present over Europe and western Alaska, while very warm air was over central North America and Siberia. This image is being generated experimentally by wunderground, and will be regularly available on our web site in the future.
Meanwhile, a snow drought for the U.S.
In the U.S., it’s been the opposite story, with temperatures 10 – 15°F above average continuing this week over much of the nation. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With no major snow storms in the offing over at least the next ten days, it’s looking probable that the non-winter of 2011 – 2012 will set numerous record-low seasonal snowfall totals. The National Weather Service sends out a daily “Weather and Almanac” product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on wunderground. I went through yesterday’s statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter. Only nine cities out of 166 major U.S. cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 1; 157 cities received below-average snowfall. The big winner in the snow sweepstakes has been Alaska, which is boasting 8 of the top 10 locations for heaviest snowfall this winter. While the 27.75 feet of snow that has fallen on Valdez has gotten a lot of attention, more remarkable is the 18.8 feet of snow Yakutat has received. That’s more than 12.5 feet above what they usually have by this time of year.
The big losers in the snow stats for this winter are the cities along the lake effect snow belts on the Great Lakes. Most notably, Syracuse, New York is nearly four feet of snow below average for this time of year. Perhaps more exceptional is Williston, North Dakota, which has received just 1.8″ of snow this winter–more than two feet below their average for February 1.
Have a super weekend, everyone, and I’ll be back Monday with a new post.
Italy slammed with snowstorm, dual snow systems forecast for the region
Published on February 1, 2012 – 5:30 pm PT
– By TWS Staff Reporter
– Edited by Staff Editor
“Italy is seeing some rare, but deadly freeze and snowfall conditions,” said Martin. “After this storm, expect another Friday and Saturday, with continued snowfall and arctic freeze conditions through at least the next week.”(TheWeatherSpace.com) – Italy was hit by a snowstorm on Wednesday and another one is on the way as Europe continues to freeze.
TheWeatherSpace.com Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin predicted Italy would see snow back at the beginning part of the week (article here). So far those predictions are coming true and he predicts yet another storm system.
So far the freezing temperatures across Europe have claimed the lives of 80 people. With another week left, the number would sure to climb as the arctic freeze grips the continent.
ROME (Reuters) – Heavy snow fell in central Rome Friday, giving tourists a rare sight of whitened landmarks such as Saint Peter’s Square and the Trevi Fountain, while the Colosseum and the Roman Forum were closed due to the icy conditions.
In the heaviest snowfalls in the Italian capital since the 1980s, around 40 cm of snow had settled in the northern outskirts of the city by midday. It is forecast to intensify throughout the day and overnight, before easing off Saturday.
Mayor Gianni Alemanno instructed schools to remain open on Friday and Saturday but not to hold any lessons in order that children unable to attend did not fall behind. He said Friday only 5 percent of children had gone to school.
The unaccustomed snow caused traffic jams around the ancient city.
Heavy snow has fallen over much of Italy this week causing severe disruption to train and road transport, especially in the mountainous regions of Piedmont, Emilia Romagna, Tuscany and Umbria.
Wednesday passengers were stuck for seven hours in the countryside on a train that was to have gone from Bologna in the north to Taranto in the south after the electrical wires froze over.
currently 1230am CST — there have been several tornadic outbreaks with damaging winds / hail… in Arkansas, Illinois, Tennessee, Louisiana, Missouri, Kentucky, Ohio, Alabama, Mississippi, Indiana, Louisiana, and Michigan…
Areas to watch out for next will most likely be Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia.
Illinois and Michigan are getting hit with hail and damaging winds– also possible tornadoes detected:
By 6am EST 1/23/2012 — look in the area marked below for severe weather to develop:
Watch the east coast states (new england)… it is up for debate as to whether severe will hit these areas.. or will the cooler weather kill the storm when it arrives in the north east?
I would venture a guess that AT LEAST damaging winds will reach New York. Be prepared as always.
Arctic air to blast the Central and Eastern United States by mid-month
Published on January 7, 2012 2:15 pm PT
– By TWS Senior Meteorologist
– Edited by Staff Editor
TheWeatherSpace.com) – Numerous forecast models are latching onto a pattern that would bring arctic air down into the Central and Eastern United States by next week.
When credit is due, it is given. This was not forecast by me or anyone else in this long of range and Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction.com put the forecast out in Fall for mid-January to have the arctic air blast.
What is interesting is he seems to predict these longer range patterns based on the solar activity.
For a morning, the sky looked like a surfer’s dream: A series of huge breaking waves lined the horizon in Birmingham, Ala., on Friday (Dec. 16), their crests surging forward in slow motion. Amazed Alabamans took photos of the clouds and sent them to their local weather station, wondering, “What are these tsunamis in the sky?”
Experts say the clouds were pristine examples of “Kelvin-Helmholtz waves.” Whether seen in the sky or in the ocean, this type of turbulence always forms when a fast-moving layer of fluid slides on top of a slower, thicker layer, dragging its surface.
Water waves, for example, form when the layer of fluid above them (i.e., the air) is moving faster than the layer of fluid below (i.e., the water). When the difference between the wind and water speed increases to a certain point, the waves “break” — their crests lurch forward — and they take on the telltale Kelvin-Helmholtz shape. [Astonishing Video Shows a Face in the Clouds]
According to Chris Walcek, a meteorologist at the Atmospheric Sciences Research Center at the State University of New York, Albany, fast-moving air high in the sky can drag the top of slow-moving, thick clouds underneath it in much the same way.
“In the pictures [of the Birmingham sky] there is probably a cold layer of air near the ground where the wind speed is probably low. That is why there is a cloud or fog in that layer,” Walcek told Life’s Little Mysteries, a sister site to LiveScience. “Over this cloudy, cold, slow-moving layer is probably a warmer and faster-moving layer of air.”
Most of the time, the difference in wind speed and temperature between two layers of the atmosphere is small, and so the fast-moving air on top “simply slides smoothly over the slower-moving air like a hockey puck sliding along an ice surface,” Walcek said. At the other extreme, if the wind-speed difference is too large, the interface between the two layers breaks down into random turbulence.
Kelvin-Helmholtz waves form when the difference in the temperature and wind speed of the two layers hits a sweet spot. “What [these pictures] show is air between these two atmospheric layers that is just very close to that threshold for turbulence, and mixing to mix the two layers together,” he said.
Major Storm to strike Southern California on Monday, bringing Severe Weather
Published on December 11, 2011 10:00 am PT
– By TWS Staff Reporter
– Edited by Staff Editor
(TheWeatherSpace.com) – TWS’ Southern California Weather Authority has issued a Severe Weather Statement for the populated zones of Southern California for Monday for severe weather to strike.
TWS Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin issued the product this morning just after 9:30 a.m. Pacific Time. The skies are clear across Southern California and it does not even seem like a major storm is on the horizon, but there is
“This is one of those systems that goes negative tilted, which means the dynamics for widespread thunderstorms and a chance of severe weather, including tornadic activity, is possible. The best dynamics is offshore Orange County, which means areas along the Orange County coast and inland need to be aware.”
TWS SCWXA has named the system the next name on the list, Garrett. Major Pacific Storm Garrett is a category four to start, but Martin stresses the highest scale of five could be issued by tonight if trends continue.
“In addition to this, the mountains above 5,000 feet will take a beating with the system, bringing significant snowfall to those areas and thundersnow,” concluded Martin.
If you live from the Midwest to the Northeast and thought your jacket or heavy coat usage was less often than usual this November, you are right. The month will close out with a number of cities recording a top ten warmest November.
First up, check out the geeky looking map below. This graphic shows the departures from average temperatures throughout the first 28 days of the month. The darker orange and red shaded locations over the Midwest and Northeast had temperatures the farthest above average during the month. (Note: The figures for the month are computed by taking the high and low from each day and averaging them out over the course of the entire month.)
For some locations in the Northeast, this mild November comes on the heels of the historic, damaging late-October snowstorm dubbed “Snowtober”. After that storm, perhaps you thought bouts of snow and cold temperatures would be in full effect through February? That’s not the case so far.
In the next section below, we will highlight some of the cities that will end up with a top ten warmest November.
Departure from average temperatures: November 2011 (Credit: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)
November: A Top Ten Warmest
November 2011 will go down as a top ten warmest for all of the cities listed below. The rankings displayed for each location are through November 30th.
