Update 14:46 UTC : Normally well informed Iranian sources are now reporting an increased death toll of 50. More people remain below the debris which means that the death toll will climb further the coming hours.
Update 14:41 UTC : On the Gwadar coastline, the quake created a small island about half a mile into the sea near an area called ‘Jhanda’, according to Express News. The newly appearing island is said to have a mountainous terrain rising up to a hundred feet. A large crowd was seen gathering at the site to see the new island. This information has been given by normally well informed press sources however ER finds it hard to believe and looks for further confirmation.
Update 14:24 UTC : Around 30% of houses possibly destroyed in the worst parts of Arawan district.
Update 14:20 UTC : We expect the fatalities and injured number still to rise sharply. Our own estimates are better than scenarios of other theoretical engines. Part of the reason is the time of the day the earthquake occurred. We are estimating less than 1000 fatalities based on the current epicenter, Magnitude and depth data.
Update 14:16 UTC : A M5.5 aftershock will probably create more damage and will be possibly life threatening for those buried under the rubble of the collapsed houses. All people who got safely out of their houses will surely not enter them anymore for some time.
Around 200000 people are without power and are in the worst affected epicentral area. This is around 45 times less than the 2005 Kashmir earthquake.
32 dead and 54 injured. Balochistan has imposed emergency measures. We are still waiting for confirmation of these figures.
Balochistan earthquake (Courtesy: The Tribe)
30 dead and 54 injured. Balochistan has imposed emergency measures.
The weather will be around 22 degrees at night, to 35 degrees in the day for the coming week with no rain. Shelter will need to be provided accordingly as well as water supplies.
Many injuries are confirmed.
Around 400 fatalities are expected using theoretical studies and the current USGS shakemap. There still exist huge uncertainties of course.
Nearly 100% of buildings are adobe in this region according to Maqsood and Schwarz (2008). In their mean vulnerability index – this region came up one of the highest in Pakistan. Thus, it can be said that the vulnerability of such housing is high.
A lot of damage has occurred in the Khuzdar district in the Arawan area
The economic losses will be less than $1 billion USD. It is likely they will be around $100 million USD, however further modelling will be done in the coming hours.
Still at 10 fatalities.
Another M5.8 aftershock has struck the area .
The sparse population (about 50 times less populated than that of the epicentral region in Kashmir 2005) and time of day (4.30pm local time), will have reduced casualties significantly. 10 people however are reported dead currently.
It should be remembered that this is a rural area and thus the population is sparse. Given the length of the fault break, it is likely that Arawan district was quite heavily hit. .
Mw7.7 and 20km depth has been reported from USGS..
Update:- As a yardstick – the Pakistan earthquake of 2005 was Mw7.6 and at 10km depth. The fault break for Mw7.8 should be of the order of 150-180km long using scaling laws..
Update:- The duration of the quake was close to 2 minutes .
Update:- At least 2 people have been killed.
Update:- Many houses have collapsed, and no power is reported in parts of Balochistan. It is unknown the extent of these collapsed houses.
Update:- M7.8 and 15km depth has been given by IIEES.
Update:- The maximum intensity in Karachi has been around III so it is highly unlikely that there will be any damage there.
Update:- A number of aftershocks have occurred which is making life difficult for inhabitants. An M5.9 and M4.7 earthquake have been the largest so far, however it can be expected that aftershocks will plague the region in the coming hours and days.
No damage has been reported in Iran. Dubai in the UAE reported swinging of buildings.
Update: PAGER is predicting in excess of 1000 fatalities using a theoretical model. Internal models are predicting less than 1000 fatalities, (around 440) but with huge differences currently due to the uncertainty of intensities (and differences in magnitude)
Update: The earthquake occurred at 16:30 local time, which is one of the best times for an earthquake to strike… many people will hopefully been out of the house and out of schools, and agricultural workers will still hopefully have been outside.
Update: Roofs of schools in Arawan district collapsed.
Update: Pakistani news report that a lot of houses were damaged in Arawan area. Many people were injured and are on the way to hospital.
Update: Reports from Pakistan indicate that a lot of houses in western Pakistan were damaged. We expect more damage, also in other parts of Pakistan.
Update: USGS rose the Magnitude to 7.8 again. The quake was also felt in UAE and Oman. So far, we don’t have any reports from greater epicenter area.
Update: Panic was spreaded in Dehli and other Indian cities. People ran to the streets.
Update: According to PAGER, 16.000 people living in the area of strongest shaking. 105.000 in area of Intensity VII and VIII.
Update: USGS has changed the value from M 7.8 to M 7.4, still very dangerous. The quake was also felt in parts of India.
USGS ShakeMap shows a violent shaking in epicenter area, which is only sparsely populted with some villages (Balochistan Region).
A massive very dangerous earthquake with M 7.5 occurred in southern Pakistan.
69km (43mi) NNE of Awaran, Pakistan
118km (73mi) NW of Bela, Pakistan
172km (107mi) S of Kharan, Pakistan
174km (108mi) NW of Uthal, Pakistan
793km (493mi) ENE of Muscat, Oman
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 7.7
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-09-24 16:29:49
Update 10:39 UTC : The depth is still unsure at this moment. Geofon reports a 26 km shallow depth and EMSC a 60 km depth. A M4.6 earthquake should not be damaging at these depths.
Below a picture of the Maharana Pratap Sagar reservoir (at the bottom the dam). At this Magnitude the dam should have no problem at all. The epicenter (taking into account the error margin) was almost below the reservoir.
Update 10:26 UTC : Most of the people reporting are located in the Chandigarh, Jalandhar, Ludhiana area. The earthquake has also been felt in parts of Pakistan.
Update 10:24 UTC : Based on preliminary data, we expect the Magnitude near M5, depth still unsure.
352 km SE of Islamabad, Pakistan / pop: 601,600 / local time: 15:13:30.0 2013-08-29
132 km NW of Shimla, India / pop: 173,503 / local time: 15:43:30.0 2013-08-29
119 km E of Nārowāl, Pakistan / pop: 68,291 / local time: 15:13:30.0 2013-08-29
8 km W of Dera Gopipur, India / pop: 4,735 / local time: 15:43:30.0 2013-08-29
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 4.7
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-08-29 15:43:30
UPDATE 09:55 UTC : The earthquake hit different areas of Balochistan and Sindh, creating panic among the people. Most of thepeople were asleep at the time the earthquake struck. They rushed in panic out of their houses. People seemed so terrified of the tremors that they were reluctant to return inside.