Jeff Masters on Rain & Drought 2011

Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:07 PM GMT on January 11, 2012 +4
Rains unprecedented in 117 years of record keeping set new yearly precipitation totals in seven states during 2011, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center revealed in its preliminary year-end report for 2011. An extraordinary twenty major U.S. cities had their wettest year on record during 2011. This smashes the previous record of ten cities with a wettest year, set in 1996, according to a comprehensive data base of 303 U.S. cities that have 90% of the U.S. population, maintained by Wunderground’s weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Despite the remarkable number of new wettest year records set, precipitation averaged across the contiguous U.S. during 2011 was near-average, ranking as the 45th driest year in the 117-year record. This occurred because of unprecedented dry conditions across much of the South, where Texas had its driest year on record.


Figure 1. Precipitation rankings for U.S. states in 2011. Seven states had their wettest year on record, and an additional ten states had a top-ten wettest year. Texas had its driest year on record, and four other states had a top-ten driest year. Image credit: NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 2.Wettest, driest, and warmest year records set during 2011 for major U.S. cities. No major cities had their coldest year on record during 2011. Image credit: NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.

2011 sets a new U.S. record for combined wet and dry extremes
If you weren’t washing away in a flood during 2011, you were probably baking in a drought. The fraction of the contiguous U.S. covered by extremely wet conditions (top 10% historically) was 33% during 2011, ranking as the 2nd highest such coverage in the past 100 years. At the same time, extremely dry conditions (top 10% historically) covered 25% of the nation, ranking 6th highest in the past 100 years. The combined fraction of the country experiencing either severe drought or extremely wet conditions was 58%–the highest in a century of record keeping. Climate change science predicts that if the Earth continues to warm as expected, wet areas will tend to get wetter, and dry areas will tend to get drier–so 2011’s side-by-side extremes of very wet and very dry conditions should grow increasingly common in the coming decades.


Figure 3. Percentage of the contiguous U.S. either in severe or greater drought (top 10% dryness) or extremely wet (top 10% wetness) during 2011, as computed using NOAA’s Climate Extremes Index. Remarkably, more than half of the country (58%) experienced either a top-ten driest or top-ten wettest year, a new record. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

23rd warmest year on record, and 2nd hottest summer for the U.S.
The year 2011 ranked as the 23rd warmest in U.S. history, with sixteen states recording a top-ten warmest year on record. Delaware had its warmest year on record, and Texas its second warmest. However, these statistics don’t convey the extremity of the summer of 2011–the hottest U.S. summer in 75 years. The only hotter summer–and by only 0.1°–was the Dust Bowl summer of 1936, when poor farming practices had turned much of the Midwest into a parking lot for generating extreme heat. The June – August 2011 average temperatures in Texas and Oklahoma were a remarkable 1.6°F and 1.3°F warmer than the previous hottest summer for a U.S. state–the summer of 1934 in Oklahoma. The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which is sensitive to climate extremes in temperature, rainfall, dry streaks, and drought, indicated that an area nearly four times the average value was affected by extreme climate conditions during summer 2011. This is the third largest summer value of record, and came on the heels a spring season that was the most extreme on record. When averaged over the entire year, 2011 ranked as the 8th most extreme in U.S. history, since the fall weather was near-average for extremes. The CEI goes back to 1910.


Figure 4. Average temperatures for the summer in Texas and Oklahoma, at 86.8 degrees F (30.4 degrees C) and 86.5 degrees F (30.3 degrees C), respectively, exceeded the previous seasonal statewide average temperature record for any state during any season. The previous warmest summer statewide average temperature was in Oklahoma, during 1934, at 85.2 degrees F (29.6 degrees C). Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Wunderground’s weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a more detailed look at the U.S. extremes observed during 2011 in his latest post. His selection for the most remarkable yearly record set during 2011:

Perhaps, most astonishing is the total annual rainfall of just 1.06” at Pecos, Texas (normal annual precipitation is 11.61”). If confirmed this would be a Texas state record for least amount of precipitation ever recorded in a calendar year, the current record stands at 1.64” at Presidio in 1956.

from:   http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

2011—Most Costly Disaster Year Ever

Globally, 2011 Was Costliest Disaster Year Ever

OurAmazingPlanet Staff
Date: 04 January 2012 Time: 03:24 PM ET

From devastating earthquakes to record tornado outbreaks, 2011 was the most expensive year for natural disasters worldwide, according to a new insurance report.

At $380 billion, global economic losses from natural disasters in 2011 were two-thirds higher than in 2005, the previous record year, which had losses of $220 billion.

The magnitude 9.0 Japan temblor in Marchalone caused more than half the year’s losses, according to the report from global insurance firm Munich Re. In the United States, a deadly dozen disasters each caused more than $1 billion in damage.

While 90 percent of the recorded natural catastrophes were weather-related, the big earthquakes were the most expensive disasters,. Normally, it is the weather-related disasters that account for the greatest insured losses, according to the insurance firm. Over the last three decades, geophysical events such as earthquakes accounted for less than 10 percent of insured losses, Munich Re said.

Around 70 percent of economic losses in 2011 occurred in Asia, where 16,000 people were killed in Japan during the March 11 earthquake and tsunami. Even without considering the consequences of a crippled nuclear reactor in Fukushima following the quake, the economic losses caused by the quake and the tsunami came to $210 billion — the costliest natural catastrophe of all time.

The magnitude 6.3 earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand, in February caused $16 billion in damage. Other expensive disasters included tornado season in the United States, which caused $46 billion in damage. Hurricane Irene, the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States in three years, caused $15 billion in damage.

“Thankfully, a sequence of severe natural catastrophes like last year’s is a very rare occurrence,” said Torsten Jeworrek, the Munich Re board member responsible for global reinsurance business, in a statement.

Some 27,000 people died in natural catastrophes in 2011. This figure does not include the countless deaths from famine following the worst drought in decades on the Horn of Africa, which was the greatest humanitarian catastrophe of the year.

from:    http://www.livescience.com/17738-2011-expensive-natural-disaster-year.html

Most Extreme July on Record

fr/Dr. Jeff Masters, an analysis of weather in July:

According to the National Climatic Data Center‘s Climate Extremes Index, July 2011 was the most extreme July on record (since 1910) with a value of 37%. The Climate Extremes Index is created by merging the various climate indicators (drought, flood, extreme heat, extreme cold, etc.) into an index that can be tracked over time. This month’s record CEI was due to extreme warm minimum temperatures across the country, wet northern Plains and Great Lakes, extreme warm maximum temperatures, and the severe drought across the South and Gulf Coast.

It was the fourth warmest July on record for the nation, and the fourth warmest month overall with an average temperature of 77°F. Extreme heat continued to bake the South, and Oklahoma and Texas both had their warmest months on record. Oklahoma’s statewide average temperature was a remarkable 88.9°F in July, which is the warmest monthly statewide average for any state in any month. Dallas, Texas hit or exceeded 100°F on 30 out of the 31 days in July. For the entire South climate region, which comprises Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, July 2011 was the warmest month on record for any of the climate regions.

As we noted in a previous blog, an unprecedented area of exceptional drought covered the United States in July, the largest area in the history of the U.S. Drought Monitor. 75% of Texas was in an exceptional drought, and the entire state of Oklahoma was in moderate to exceptional drought in July. The NCDC estimates that it would take 20 inches of rain to end the drought in one month in the worst hit areas of Oklahoma and Texas.

to read more, go to:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1876