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Mayan Text Mentioning 12/20/2012 Date Found

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Ancient Text Confirms Mayan Calendar End Date

Stephanie Pappas, LiveScience Senior Writer
Date: 28 June 2012
A carved block from La Corona

Carved blocks uncovered at La Corona show scenes of Mayan life and record a political history of the city.
CREDIT: David Stuart

A newly discovered Mayan text reveals the “end date” for the Mayan calendar, becoming only the second known document to do so. But unlike some modern people, ancient Maya did not expect the world to end on that date, researchers said.

“This text talks about ancient political history rather than prophecy,” Marcello Canuto, the director of Tulane University Middle America Research Institute, said in a statement. “This new evidence suggests that the 13 bak’tun date was an important calendrical event that would have been celebrated by the ancient Maya; however, they make no apocalyptic prophecies whatsoever regarding the date.”

The Mayan Long Count calendar is divided into bak’tuns, or 144,000-day cycles that begin at the Maya creation date. The winter solstice of 2012 (Dec. 21) is the last day of the 13th bak’tun, marking what the Maya people would have seen as a full cycle of creation.

Now, researchers exploring the Mayan ruins of La Corona in Guatemala have unearthed a second reference. On a stairway block carved with hieroglyphs, archaeologists found a commemoration of a visit by Yuknoom Yich’aak K’ahk’ of Calakmul, the most powerful Mayan ruler in his day. The king, also known as Jaguar Paw, suffered a terrible defeat in battle by the Kingdom of Tikal in 695.

Historians have long assumed that Jaguar Paw died or was captured in this battle. But the carvings proved them wrong. In fact, the king visited La Corona in A.D. 696, probably trying to shore up loyalty among his subjects in the wake of his defeat four years earlier. [See images of the carvings]

As part of this publicity tour, the king was calling himself the “13 k’atun lord,” the carvings reveal. K’atuns are another unit of the Maya calendar, corresponding to 7,200 days or nearly 20 years. Jaguar Paw had presided over the ending of the 13th of these k’atuns in A.D. 692.

That’s where the 2012 calendar end date comes in. In an effort to tie himself and his reign to the future, the king linked his reign with another 13th cycle — the 13th bak’tun of Dec. 21, 2012.

Hieroglyphs on Mayan carved block.
A detailed look at the carvings on Block 5, found at La Corona in Guatemala. The carvings tell a political history of the city and its allies and enemies.
CREDIT: David Stuart

“What this text shows us is that in times of crisis, the ancient Maya used their calendar to promote continuity and stability rather than predict apocalypse,” Canuto said.

La Corona was the site of much looting and has only been explored by modern archaeologists for about 15 years. Canuto and his dig co-director Tomas Barrientos Q. of the Universidad del Valle de Guatemala announced the discovery of the new calendar text Thursday (June 28) at the National Palace in Guatemala.

The researchers first uncovered the carved stone steps in 2010 near a building heavily damaged by looters. The robbers had missed this set of 12 steps, however, providing a rare example of stones still in their original places. The researchers found another 10 stones from the staircase that had been moved but then discarded by looters. In total, these 22 stones boast 264 hieroglyphs tracing the political history of La Corona, making them the longest known ancient Maya text in Guatemala.

from:    http://www.livescience.com/21255-ancient-text-confirms-mayan-calendar-end.html

Jeff Masters on TS Debby & Continuing Record Heat

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Debby stalls, drenches Florida; 114° in Colorado ties state heat record
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:09 PM GMT on June 25, 2012 +32

Tropical storm warnings continue to fly from Alabama eastward to Suwannee, Florida, as Tropical Storm Debby sits motionless over the Gulf of Mexico. On Sunday, Debby spawned a multitude of severe thunderstorms over much of Florida, which brought torrential rains, damaging winds, and numerous tornadoes. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center logged 20 preliminary tornado reports on Sunday, and a tornado in Venus, Florida killed one person. Venus is in Central Florida, between Port St. Lucie and Sarasota. Another person is missing in Alabama, swept away by rough surf. The heaviest rains of Debby affected the Tampa Bay region, where over ten inches were reported at several locations. The Tampa Bay airport picked up 7.11 inches on Sunday. It’s a good thing this isn’t the week of the Republican National Convention, which is scheduled for late August in Tampa! Minor to moderate flooding is occurring at three rivers near Tampa, and flooding has been limited by the fact the region is under moderate to severe drought.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby has totaled over 6 inches (orange colors) along a swath from Tampa to Ocala.

Winds from Debby have fallen considerably since Sunday, thanks to a slug of dry air that wrapped into Debby’s core, disrupting the storm. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows that winds at almost all buoys and coastal stations along the Gulf Coast were below 30 mph at 8am EDT. The exception was a Personal Weather Station at Bald Point, near Apalachiacola, Florida, which reported sustained winds of 32 mph. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft flying through Debby has measured top surface winds of 43 mph as of 9 am EDT. Visible satellite loops show Debby has virtually no heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation, which will severely limit its potential for intensification today. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are mostly on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the west creating a moderate 10 – 20 knots of wind shear that continues to drive dry air into Debby’s core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are about 27.5°C (81°F) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 2. True-color visible Aqua satellite image of Debby taken at 3 pm EDT Sunday June 24, 2012. At the time, Debby had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby’s slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, though tornadoes will continue to be a threat over the next few days. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida in its “Slight Risk” area for severe weather today. The slow motion of Debby will inhibit intensification of the storm by stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface. Debby’s close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Wednesday. I expect Debby will begin to build heavy thunderstorms near its core today and Tuesday, with the winds increasing again to 60 mph by Wednesday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast gives Debby just a 4% chance of undergoing rapid intensification–a 30 mph increase of winds in 24 hours. The 8 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving Debby a 19% chance of becoming a hurricane by early Wednesday morning. Steering currents for Debby are very weak, a the storm should hang out in its current location for several more days. The models continue to have a large spread in where they thing Debby might eventual make landfall, and the official NHC forecast may have large errors for its positions at the 3 – 5 day range.

Colorado’s 114°: hottest temperature in state history
The remarkable heat wave that affected Colorado on Saturday and Sunday has tied the all-time heat record for the state. According to wunderground’s weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday’s 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954.

Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The city has hit 100° four other times, most recently on July 24, 2003. The record heat in Colorado Springs exacerbated a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles on Sunday, driving 11,000 residents (2% of the city’s population) out of their homes.

In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city’s all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado’s history, and is 45% contained.

La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990.

The heat wave extended into neighboring Kansas, where Hill City hit 114°, tying its all-time warmest June temperature. Tribune, Kansas hit 109°, tying its all-time hottest temperature. Goodland, Kansas hit 109°, its hottest June temperature on record.

Two more days of exceptional heat are predicted for Colorado and Kansas, with the forecast for Denver calling for a high of 101 – 104° on Monday. The city hit 102° on Sunday, just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in Denver, the 105° readings on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878.

Jeff Masters

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2133

El Hierro Update

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El Hierro Volcano : Green and Yellow alert – today : RECORD number of strong earthquakes (88) since September 30, 2011 (pre-eruption phase)

Last update: June 25, 2012 at 3:58 pm by By

Update 25/06 – 15:45 UTC
-The number of earthquakes is picking up again
– Today will have the highest number of (M+2) earthquakes since September 30, 2011 (pre-eruption process at El Hierro). IGN has still a delay of several hours and we have counted already 88 M+2 earthquakes.
We have compared data from the full length of the eruption process. On November 3 (fierce action) 62 M+2 earthquakes were registered.  On October 6, 2011, 88 M+2 were registered.

Update 25/06 – 15:28 UTC
– As stipulated in the 14:36 UTC update, we see a drastic decrease  in number and strength of the earthquakes. It looks like the strongest swarm episode  is over for now and we expect no further deterioration of the situation if the current activity continues.
– Earthquake Animation of Julio del Castillo Vivero in cooperation with Avcan – magma trail has been currently blocked at El Julan (last set of bullets)

Update 25/06 – 14:36 UTC
– We have the impression that, based on the HT hourly graphics, HT and the number of earthquakes has decreased considerably although we still notice strong ones.  Probable explanation : Flow decreased due to blocked lava tubes, but pressurizes the paths even more which is related to a number of stronger quakes
– 82 earthquakes (the most important ones) listed by IGN until 12:12 UTC (we are now more than 2 hours later)
– The AVCAN map below shows the “road” the magma is following while pressurizing the below the island tunnels. The magma is gradually moving from the El Golfo island towards a cluster below the old volcano crater and finally towards El Julan (south coast). It still has to travel a little bit towards the submarine crater to restart the eruption process. The main question now is whether it will reach and reopen the cone or withdraw before that.

Map (without green line) courtesy AVCAN – quake locations based on official IGN list

The El Julan coast where the magma seems to have been blocked (last recorded group of listed earthquakes) – image Joke Volta

for more information and updates, go to:   http://earthquake-report.com/2011/09/25/el-hierro-canary-islands-spain-volcanic-risk-alert-increased-to-yellow/

Some of the Satellites over Leiden

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THE BUSY-NESS OVER YOUR HEAD: Earth orbit is crowded with nearly a thousand operating satellites and tens of thousands of spent rocket engines, splinters from satellite collisions, and other space debris. Space is a busy place. This picture taken by expert satellite watcher Marco Langbroek frames some of the madding crowd over Leiden, the Netherlands:

“This single image of a 10×14 degree-wide part of the geostationary belt was taken near midnight of June 18-19 and shows 30 satellites,” says Langbroek. “Each black box contains one or more (mostly) geostationary satellites plus a few rocket bodies: 23 commercial geostationary satellites, one classified military geostationary satellite (Milstar 5), and 6 spent rocket boosters.”

“The geostationary belt can be seen as a slanting line of objects diagonally over the larger image.” he continues. “The geostationary belt (at declination -7.4 degrees for the Netherlands) never comes high in the sky for my country (which is at 52 N). All the objects on the picture have an elevation below 30 degrees. The image was taken from the center of Leiden–i.e. not an ideal dark sky. I did a slightly bad job in focussing, so the image is slightly less sharp (especially near the edges) than it could have been with this fine lens. Still, an amazing number of objects recorded in this small field of view!”

fr/spaceweather.com

Sichuan-Yunnan Border Dangerous Earthquake

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Shallow earthquake on the Sichuan/Yunnan Border – 2 killed, 17 seriously, 86 slightly injured

Last update: June 24, 2012 at 2:47 pm by By

This damaging earthquake has hit on the Sichuan-Yunnan border. Both seismological bureaus are sending teams to survey the damage.

UPDATE:- 2 killed, 17 seriously injured and 86 slightly injured.

UPDATE:- A second person has been found dead in the rubble. This value may rise given the fact that communications are down within the epicentral region.

Houses have collapsed in the epicentral region.

Earthquake damage (Courtesy: China News)

The Yunnan Provincial Civil Affairs Department, Yunnan Provincial Committee for Disaster Reduction and the provincial Civil Affairs Department has launched three emergency responses, and are  transporting to the disaster area 300 tents, 500 blankets, 500 coats. At the same time, the Working Group of the provincial Civil Affairs Department is helping guide disaster relief work.

UPDATE:- The earthquake has occurred in the Ninglang-Yanyuan region.

1 person has been killed and at least 2 seriously injured and 100 people have been slightly injured. In Ninglang!

Damage is expected to be greater than 30 million dollars via historic damage estimates.

PAGER has determined from the algorithm that the earthquake will cause between 10 and 100 million dollars damage, and 0 deaths (30% chance of 1-10 deaths). The predicted intensity is VII.

The location of the Chinese Quake (Courtesy:Yunnan Seismological Bureau)

This earthquake is CATDAT RED.

Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : M5.7 (CEA)
UTC Time :  7:59:32, Sunday 24th June 2012
Local time at epicenter : 15:59:32, Sunday 24th June 2012
Depth (Hypocenter) : 11km
Geo-location(s) : Close to Lijiang City. At least 900,000 people live within a damaging radius.

for more information and updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/06/24/shallow-earthquake-on-the-sichuanyunnan-border-1-killed-200-injured/

Well, Hello, TS Debby

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Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog
Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico
Posted by: Angela Fritz, 9:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2012 +22
Tropical Storm Debby has been named by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon after hurricane hunters investigated Invest 96L and found a solid closed circulation, with maximum winds of 50mph and gusts up to 65mph. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of Debby. Debby is drifting north at 5mph. The storm has brought heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula over the past two days, but the disturbance’s heaviest rains are located well offshore over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, where heavy thunderstorms are generating winds near tropical storm-force. A buoy 243 miles east of Naples, FL measured sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph, with 10-foot waves, at 8 am EDT Saturday morning. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico is experiencing winds of 20 – 30 mph.

Visible satellite loops show an unorganized tropical cyclone with an obvious surface circulation, though the thunderstorm activity is well displaced to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is slowly expanding and growing more intense. Upper-level winds out of the west continue to create moderate 10 – 20 knots of wind shear over the region, though that is expected to increase over the next few days. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico, which will continue to interfere with Debby’s development and make it hard for the west side of the circulation to maintain heavy thunderstorms. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average.


Figure 1. Saturday afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Saturday afternoon forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.

Forecast for Debby
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecast a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday of next week. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low, and while wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.

Debby’s place in history (by Jeff Masters)
Remarkably, Debby’s formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season’s fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby’s formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled “Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?” He concluded that yes, there is a “apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high”. Three out of four of this year’s early quartet of storms–Alberto, Beryl, and Debby–formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won’t grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground’s list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

References
Kossin, J., 2008, “Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?”, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

Angela and Jeff

from:   http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2130

Sumatra 6.6 Earthquake

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M6.6 earthquake hits Sumatra

Last update: June 23, 2012 at 7:11 am by By

UPDATE:- From the epicenter, reports are that there was major panic with people jumping out of houses, however at this point there is no damage being reported.

Many people fleed from hospitals in Singkil, scared of a collapse. They are currently outside, awaiting aftershocks.

The last major quake in the epicentral region was around a year ago, claiming a life and damaging 100s of buildings.

 

An intermediate depth earthquake has hit Sumatra near Aceh.  Shaking could hit a VI intensity.

The earthquake has been reported as a weak shaking tapering off quite quickly which is good news from these localities.

This earthquake was felt by people in Penang in Malaysia quite strongly.

A tsunami warning was issued, but for such a deep hypocenter it is usually unlikely that such a large tsunami would result. Only due to underwater landslides.

BMKG Shakemap of the earthquake (courtesy: BMKG)

Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : Ml6.6 (BMKG)
UTC Time : 23rd June 2012
Local time at epicenter : 23rd June 2012 – 11:34:52 Indonesian WIB
Depth (Hypocenter) : 103km
Geo-location(s) : 24 km NW of KOTA-SUBULUSSALAM-NAD, 40 km NW of KAB-ACEHSINGKIL , 42 km SE of KAB-ACEHSELATAN , 127 km SW of MEDAN-SUMUT , 1417 km NW of JAKARTA-INDONESIA

for more information and updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/06/23/m6-6-earthquake-hits-sumatra/

Hurricane Potential in The Gulf

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Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L poorly organized, but may develop
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, on June 22, 2012 +27
An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Southern Gulf of Mexico (designated 96L by NHC Thursday afternoon) is a threat to become a tropical depression this weekend, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance is bringing occasional heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. Top winds measured in the surrounding ocean areas this morning were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at the Yucatan Basin buoy between Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas show a ship that measured sustained winds of 30 mph near the western tip of Cuba this morning. Satellite-based surface wind measurements from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, show no signs of a surface circulation. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is less organized than it was Thursday evening, with only a little low-level spin apparent, and a modest area of disorganized thunderstorms. The decrease in organization is probably due to the moderate to high levels of wind shear of 15 – 25 knots over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development. Ocean temperatures are 81 – 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon, but this mission will probably be cancelled due to the disturbance’s lack of organization.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance 96L in the Southern Gulf of Mexico.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Saturday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression; NHC gave 96L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. By Sunday, wind shear is predicted to increase, limiting 96L’s potential for intensification. Where the storm might go is anybody’s guess. The GFS model has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Sunday or Monday. However, an ensemble of forecasts from the model created by running the model with slight perturbations to the initial conditions shows a wide range of possible tracks, both to the east over Florida, and to the west towards Texas and Louisiana (Figure 2.) The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that the trough will not be strong enough to pull 96L northeastwards across Florida. The ECMWF predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing the disturbance westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Thursday. The UKMET model also favors a track west towards Texas. The NOGAPS model takes 96L to the northwest into Louisiana/Texas by Monday.


Figure 2. Which way will 96L go? The GFS model, when run at low resolution with 20 slightly different perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate an ensemble of different forecasts, shows two distinct possibilities: a sharp east turn to move over Florida, or a west or northwest motion towards Louisiana or Texas. The high-resolution official GFS forecast is shown in white.

Jeff Masters

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2128

Cleveland Volcano in Alaska Erupting

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New Eruption at Alaska’s Cleveland

Cleveland (background) and Carlisle (foreground) volcanoes in Alaska seen from an Alaska Airlines 737 in May 2012. Image by Cyrus Read, courtesy of AVO/USGS.

Last night, I noted on Twitter that the Alaska Volcano Observatory had increased the alert status at Cleveland to Orange (from Yellow) – this came after a report that an explosive eruption had taken place. Thanks to Cleveland’s remote location, confirmation of the eruption is difficult, but pilot observation, shots from the Cleveland webcam and infrasound all suggests that an explosive eruption took place, with the pilot estimating the plume might have been as high as 10.6 km / 35,000 feet. The eruption appears to be fairly ephemeral (a standard behavior for Cleveland), as satellite images taken around the time that the pilot reported the ash plume show only thin ash around the volcano – this isn’t entirely surprising if the explosion was caused by a collapse of the dome at Cleveland’s summit.

This is pretty much all that is going on in the Aleutians right now – Iliamna, another volcano that showed some restlessness earlier this year, has settled in a pattern of low-level (yet above background) seismicity that leaves it at Yellow alert status. However, the Aleutian’s northern Pacific cousins in Kamchatka are definitely keeping busy, especially Shiveluch, where the volcano has been producing frequent ~6-8 km / 20,000- to 26,000-foot plumes.

from:    http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/eruptions/

Melbourne, Australia — Strong Earthquake

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Strong earthquake in the greater Melbourne area, Australia

Last update: June 19, 2012 at 2:38 pm by By

Summary 14:00UTC:

This was recorded as the largest quake in Victoria since the 1903 Warnambool events (Mb 5.3), however the 1969 event of Ml5.3 and 1982 event of Ml5.4 are also in the same ballpark. The Seismological research center of ES&S still has the earthquake recorded as an Ml5.5.

A number of foodstock losses will also occur at various supermarkets with many items being thrown off the shelves.

A number of houses have recorded damage in the form of cracks to walls, ceilings and in other concrete as well as other minor damage such as fallen tiles.

Update 13:10UTC:

Still waiting for further damage reports from the ground, with at least 25 potential instances of damage being recorded at this point through the SES. VicSES has implemented a Quake safety awareness and response program “QuakeSafe” in the past few years.

Update 13:05UTC:

Residential property has sustained minor damage from the tremor. Some residential properties in Moe and some in the La Trobe Valley appeared to be the hardest hit.

“There’s been cracks in walls, damage to ceilings and windows, and possibly some building damage so far” said SES Spokesman Lachlan Quick talking to news services in Australia.

The instance of damage from further afield in Moe has brought the potential estimated damage bill to between $0.7 and 4.1 million AUD from rapid loss estimation packages but further calibration is required on the intensities from the ground before any concrete estimate can be released.

Summary 13:00UTC:
– A shallow Mb5.3 earthquake struck just after 20:53 (8:53pm) local time around the Latrobe Valley at Childers, south of Trafalgar.
– Over 35 calls have been put into the Victorian SES for assistance.
– No major damage reported as yet.
– Around 7000 people live in the VI intensity area, with many more in the V intensity area.

Update 12:56UTC: Anyone living in or near Childers with Internet access would be very much appreciated to submit a felt report. Thankyou to all Victorians for their responses – it really helps us to pinpoint the damage area!

Update 12:50UTC: Just to show the effect of this quake around 10-12 km away from the epicenter in Trafalgar – “Have experienced lighter tremors in this area before i.e. Mid Gippsland eminating in South Gippsland Region, but this was clearly the most dramatic…. Previous ones were around 4.3. Whole house shaking with this one i.e. quite violently more of a 5 or above and accompanying strange sound/noise. All the neighbours ran out into the street afterwards. Felt at first like a sudden wind”.

From Mirboo North – “Shaking and noise lasted about 20 seconds? I have never felt anything so violent in my life.”

From Moe – “Was in the car, felt like people jumping on it. Got home stuff over the floor and cupboard doors opened.”

The seismogram at Toolangi (about 120km away)

Update 12:48UTC: For people interested in the economics of the region, East Gippsland has a $1.72 billion GDP mainly due to the manufacturing and construction industry. The area affected however, is slightly west of this area, and has a capital stock of around $65 million with less than 1% damage expected, meaning that there is likely to be less than $1 million damage at this stage based on historic statistics, if any! Trafalgar used to have a cheese factory but was closed in 1990, meaning the cruel fate seen to the cheese in Italy, will not occur here.

Update 12:44UTC:  VICSES has recieved 35 requests for assistance so far from the broader Gippsland area and parts of metropolitan Melbourne.

Update: At least 7,000 people would be within potentially damaging area. With the main towns being Yarragon (1100+), Trafalgar (2600+) and Mirboo North (2000+) within this area. The larger towns/cities of Moe-Newborough, Morwell, Yarragul and Leongatha are far enough away to have only very slight to no damage.

Update: The quake would have been felt for around 30 seconds looking at the following seismogram of the event. The Victorian State Emergency Service (SES) have received 20 requests for assistance in the broader Gippsland area and parts of Melbourne. No significant damage has as such been recorded however. Mirboo North could also have sustained cracks in houses.

Update: It has also been felt at about Intensity V in Morwell. Childers is expected to have an intensity of VI or VII.

The local view of the epicentral area. Childers is a small rural community. Courtesy: Homesales.

Update: The epicenter was located about 10km south of the Princes Highway, the main truck and transport route around Australia.

Update: Mb5.3 as recorded by Geoscience Australia – also SW of Moe. This will cause slight damage such as broken windows and cracking in the immediate area. It has been recorded near the village of Childers near Yarragon North. This is located south of Trafalgar. Being dark given that it is winter in Australia, it will be difficult to evaluate the damage.

It should be said that the earthquake hypocenter location has not been finalised from Geoscience Australia yet.

Update: The 1922 earthquake was the last earthquake to cause damage in Victoria with a magnitude higher. Since the 1800s, there have been at least 15 damaging earthquakes in Victoria of significance, the last being in 2009. The famous Warnambool earthquakes of 1903, and the Selwyn Fault quake of 1932 have been the most famous. – CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database.

Update: Ml5.5, 10km depth. Residents have recorded shaking of up to 40 seconds, with some soft soils in the area meaning shaking would have been felt longer than expected for such a magnitude.

Update: USGS has the epicenter out near Trafalgar, SW of Moe. Felt reports from Trafalgar would be appreciated.

Update: The earthquake has been given as Ml5.5 by some sources. The earthquake is far enough away from power stations to not have any problems, but some local lines may be affected.

Update: Victorian Police say they have received a number of calls in relation to the tremor. They say they do not have any reports of major damage which is expected with the intensities seen. The news caused immediate panic on the internet. The Geoscience Australia website crashed as people flocked online to see what had happened. We will keep you posted.

Update : This earthquake has been felt at a V intensity at Moe-Yallourn, IV at Morwell, III in Melbourne and other areas. It is likely to have caused some minor damage near the epicenter.

All historic damaging earthquakes in Australia can be seen in this paper here on the socio-economic effects of Australian earthquakes.

Update : Moe and Latrobe Valley is a famous coalmining and electricity production industry area. In addition, they have had earthquakes recently near Mt. Baw Baw of the same magnitude in 1996, Ml5.0.

The coal mining and electricity production industry (Wiki)

Update : The epicenter is in the greater Melbourne area, very close to Trafalgar, Narracan and Moe
The earthquake is very shallow and has a Magnitude who can inflict some minor damage.
Based on the overwhelming number of reports we are receiving, a merely light top moderate shaking has been experienced by many people.

An earthquake of magnitude 5.2 occurred in the highly populated region of Victoria in Australia. The earthquake happened 5km from Trafalgar. The nearest populated places are: Mirboo North (18km), North Mirboo (18km), Boolarra (16km), Darlimurla (14km), Hallston (19km), Allambee South (14km), Delburn (10km), Thorpdale South (11km), Yinnar (14km), Childers (10km), Hazelwood (15km), Thorpdale (5km), Narracan (4km), Allambee (14km), Trafalgar South (3km), Gainsborough (20km), Cloverlea (17km), Coalville (6km), Morwell (18km), Yarragon (12km), Haunted Hills (13km), Darnum (17km), Yallourn (15km), Moe (9km), Trafalgar East (8km), Tanjil South (16km), Shady Creek (19km), Willow Grove (19km). The closest civilian airport is La Trobe Regional (25km).

Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 5.2 (USGS), 5.3 Mb (body wave magnitude) Geoscience Australia.
UTC Time : Tuesday, June 19, 2012 at 10:53:29 UTC
Local time at epicenter : Tuesday, June 19, 2012 at 08:53:29 PM at epicenter
Depth (Hypocenter) : 9.9 km USGS, 10km GA
Geo-location(s) :

for more information and updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/06/19/strong-earthquake-in-the-greater-melbourne-area-australia/