Update – Sulawesi, Indonesia Earthquake

Earthquake Sulawesi, Indonesia – 6 people killed – a lot of villages still cut-off from aid due to blocked roads

Last update: August 20, 2012 at 3:11 pm by By

Update 20/08 – 14:58 UTC
The following information should make the 08:58 information more complete (courtesy Jakarta Post)
Due to the area being a national park, the government has forbidden to from construct roads to provide access to the area. To reach the villages, one has to either walk for around six hours, or ride a motorcycle for around three hours. The area also has limited telecommunication access. For all these reasons helicopter deployment is super-urgent. Helicopters can easily distribute aid to the isolated quake victims.
– The Sulawesi Lindu earthquake has killed six people, damaged 1097 houses, seven places of worship, three schools and one government office. Dozens of people suffered minor injuries during the earthquake.

Update 20/08 – 08:58 UTC
– The death toll has unfortunately climbed to 6
– Some reports are talking about 1000+ houses damaged some severely
– The landslides blocking the main road have not been removed completely, making it impossible for Rescue and aid transports to reach a lot of villages (Indonesian reports do speak about dozens of settlements). The landslide area is about 10 km long.
– A lot of villages around the Lindu lake (also a National Park) are still cut off from civilization which means that a complete assessment of the situation has not been done yet and also means that the toll of this earthquake can further increase. The current account of dead, injured and damage is thus far from complete.
– Red Cross Indonesia has promised to send an helicopter on Tuesday … to reach these remote villages.
– The Indonesian army has a big fleet of helicopters. Deploying 5 or 10 helicopters when the weather allows it, would be a great peacefull task. Where are they waiting for ? (comment ER)


Image courtesy mediaindonesia.com

Very Important Update 19/08 – 22:00 UTC
BPBD, the government agency responsible for following up and managing disasters in Indonesia came with a long awaited first official assessment report. Unfortunately bad news.
4 people have been killed during this earthquake.
7 people were seriously injured
51 houses have been reported as severely damaged
The wordt impact occurred in 9 villages in 3 districts Kulawi (Namo, Bolapapu, Boladangko, Tangkulowi, and Saluwa), Lindu (Tomado) and Gumbasa (Pakuli, Tuva and Omu)
– The report is not yet complete as at least 10 landslides are still blocking the main road. Heavy equipment has been send to the landslide areas (bulldozers, trucks, etc)
– Victims with minor injuries have been treated in their respective villages.
– Buildings who have not been affected by the earthquake are used as shelters

Update 19/08 – 12:05 UTC
Avalanches occurred from kilometer 50 to kilometer 60 of on the main road to Kulawi  (border between the District and District Gumbasa Kulawi, Sigi Regency).

Update 19/08 – 12:05 UTC : a classic example of epicenter uncertainty
–  The image below made by our colleagues of eqarchives.wordpress.com  is showing what a difficult task it is to determine the location of the epicenter and accordingly the place to look at for SAR and AID workers to find the most damaged areas. Imagine that you are a rescue authority and that a massive earthquake strikes. Where to go to or to look at first. Telecommunications and power are down, so nobody can tell you what the exact situation of the earthquake is. Additionally, the seismological agencies are doing their best to provide the epicenter location as accurate as possible but they are differing often in tens of km’s for distant quakes, just like we have witnessed here in Sulawesi. Earthquake science is making big steps forward but is far from being 100% accurate. ER tends to give the benefit of the doubt for the local well organized seismological agencies, but as could be read below, also this is far from accurate as they are often nationally structured and as some equipment is installed and read locally, like in this case in Palu. The orange sign is an aftershock. We know that the buttons are hard to read, but the story behind the buttons is that they are far from accurate.
Based on the instruments which are monitored in Palu, the epicenter was located in the Sigi regency. BMKG matched the epicenter best (just north of the Lindu lake)

Epicenter location as reported by the different seismological agencies – image courtesy eqarchives.wordpress.com – Click on the map for the interactive version

Very important update 19/08 – 07:45 UTC (ongoing update):
– a 9 year old boy was killed during the earthquake (some (international) press is talking about 3 killed people, but this could not be confirmed locally at this moment
– 12 people have been seriously injured
– at least 40 houses have been seriously damaged or collapsed
– Houses have been seriously damaged houses in the following villages : Namo, Boladangko, Bolapapu and Tangkulowi  (Sigi district)
– There is still some confusion on where the epicenter was located of the mainshock. Soon after the earthquake epicenter was said to be in the Regency Parigi Moutong. After further investigation BMKG had admitted that the epicenter was located in the Sigi regency (sub-province Kulawi, Gumbasa and Lindu). the update has been reported by BMKG after that the data from the regional BMKG office at Palu was analyzed.
– 200 rescue workers have been mobilized to asses the damage in the villages and to help the people
– The power was off moments after the earth started to shake

for more information and updates, go to:   http://earthquake-report.com/2012/08/18/extremely-dangerous-shallow-earthquake-below-sulawesi-indonesia/

 

Jeff Masters On Current Tropical Storms

94L a threat to the Lesser Antilles; Gordon a hurricane; Helene hits Mexico
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:24 PM GMT on August 18, 2012 +22

A large tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday night (Invest 94L) is located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, and is headed west at 15 – 20 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under moderate wind shear of 10 – 20 knots, and is over waters of 27.5°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis. This morning’s 8:15 am EDT ASCAT pass caught the east side of 94L, and showed a partial surface circulation. Satellite images show just a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and I expect the earliest that 94L could develop into a tropical depression would be Sunday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 – 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will gradually warm from 27.5°C to 28.5°C over the next four days, as 94L tracks westwards towards the Lesser Antilles. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. The storm should maintain a nearly due west track through Monday night, to a point near 50°W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. At that point, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 94L may be able to pull the storm more to the northwest, as suggested by the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the NOGAPS model, and by three members of the GFS model ensemble forecast (Figure 2.) However, the models have been trending more towards a solution where this trough is not strong enough to influence 94L’s path. This scenario will be more likely if 94L takes its time to develop, since a weaker storm will be smaller and shallower, and less likely to respond to the trough passing to the north. Our two best performing models, the GFS and ECMFW, both take 94L through the Lesser Antilles. The ECMWF, which predicts that 94L will stay weak and not develop, is faster, bringing the storm through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The GFS model is slower, bringing 94L to the Lesser Antilles on Thursday as a hurricane. The models have shown poor run-to-run consistency in both the timing and the track of 94L, so it is difficult to assess which land areas might be most at risk, and when. A database of historical probabilities of storms in the same location as 94L maintained by Dr. Bob Hart of Florida State University reveals that historically, 45% of storms in this location have eventually hit land, with Canada (13% chance) and North Carolina (15% chance) the most likely targets. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 17, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white.

Gordon becomes a hurricane
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon heads eastwards at 18 mph. Gordon became the third hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season at 5 am Saturday morning, and is sporting an impressive-looking eye on visible satellite loops. Gordon should be able to maintain hurricane status until Sunday, when wind shear will rise steeply to 30 – 40 knots, and ocean temperatures will drop to 25°C. The combined effects of high wind shear, dry air, and cooler waters will likely act to weaken Gordon to a strong tropical storm by the time it arrives in the Azores Islands Sunday night, but the storm will be strong enough to bring damaging winds and heavy rain to the Azores Islands. Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland. About 126,000 homes were without power after the storm in Northern Ireland and one injury was reported.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Gordon.

Helene makes landfall in Mexico
Tropical Storm Helene made landfall near 10 am EDT as a tropical storm near Tampico, Mexico, with 40 mph winds. Helene’s formation on August 17 ties 2012 with 1933 for the 2nd earliest appearance of the Atlantic’s eighth tropical storm. Helene’s rains should remain south of Texas, but moisture from Helene may feed into a stalled frontal system over the northern Gulf of Mexico and bring heavy rains to the northern Gulf Coast early next week.

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2191

Glastonbury Tor Portal

Is there a Portal on Glastonbury Tor?

The small Somerset town of Glastonbury, like its sister centre the Hebridean Isle of Iona, has enjoyed a celebrity status for some time now. Still a Mecca for those seeking spiritual insight, magic or other worldly dimensionality and, of course, host to the most famous and enduring music festival of them all. So how did it all come about, this self nominating of exceptionalness, a special place in England above most all others?

  Part of the answer lies with those naughty monks of the Abbey who in 1191 declared that they had found the bones of King Arthur and his Queen Guinevere – or phonetic ‘Queen of Air’ as the alchemical phonetic of the (Dan) Green Language prefer to call her. Given that these figures are more fantasy than real, we can confidently surmise that they didn’t really find such bones at all, but it didn’t stop them relocating and burying them in the Abbey’s chancery in 1278 in front of reigning and certainly for real King Edward and his Queen Eleanor at the time. This little incident added to the forthcoming consolidation of Grail Romance that was bolstered by equal assertions that no less than Jesus’ uncle Joseph (he of Arimathea) had arrived at Glastonbury bringing with him the Holy thorn legend upon Wearyall Hill. People, apparently, aren’t all weary of this tale.

Only recently Glastonbury Abbey have now added to their tourist literature that legend says Joseph also brought the youngster Jesus here and they built an old wattle church now buried underneath the existing Mary chapel. Tying in anything loosely Jesus-like with Arthur – possibly greedily claiming both legendary figures – spawned the Grail stuff even more and so, hey presto, Glastonbury conceals the Grail, no less, down Chalice Well. Well, many thousands of us have popped our head down there in the hope that it could be that simple. No Grail – obviously, not, that simple.

Glastonbury Abbey claims both Jesus and King Arthur

Many people are unaware of a fine book that was written in 1932 by a fellow called John Cowper Powys (1872-19630) a Derbyshire born author and lecturer who passed away before Glastonbury really took off big time. The book was called ‘A Glastonbury Romance’ and for many hits the nail on the head as valid and timelessly today as it did then. Described as ‘an epic novel of terrific cumulative force and lyrical intensity’ the work weaving the ancient with the modern probes the effect of this mystical and spiritual history upon the residents of the town. The longest undivided novel in English, the 1120 pages book muses over the possibilities upon the table – not Arthur’s Round one entirely – that Glastonbury could become a place of pilgrimage, just as easily an experimental socialist commune, or simpler still, a modern industrial town.

Well, today it appears to be a nation divided, with standardised Christians on the one hand and the new age (surely Old age by now) mystics. It certainly reaps the tourist benefits from either side, with the historical Jesus figure stuck in the middle owing to Glastonbury being the first point of Christianity in England and, of course, the lad’s cup so sought after by those on a Quest. John Michel’s 1972 book ‘City of Revelation’ mapping out the sacred geometry of Glastonbury Abbey seemed to contribute to both camps.

‘A Glastonbury Romance’

Back in 1970 the first ever Glasto festival only drew 1,500 attendants but today it draws some 180,000 over three days, praise the endurance of farmer Micheal Eavis who once declared during the 90s that he made a 3m clear profit each year.  Unavoidably, the festival and its original association with travellers and hippies and their drug habits have left a scar in the town and modern day sociology will bear out that it harbours more than its fair share of drug addicts and alcoholics. A lot of the hippies stayed and still stay. It reminds one a little of how in 1978 hordes of Scotland football fans went to the World Cup in Argentina and, running out of money, simply didn’t come back, hence the abundance of Scottish surnames in many families in towns near Cordoba!

There is another facet and feature caught up in the tug of war of Christianity and the mystical within Glastonbury with both sides vying for its ownership and it is that pyramidical shaped natural hill the Tor which also has a dependency on legend and myth for its celebrity status. Modern day magicians and Pagans complicate things even a bit further by introducing a schism amongst their occultists informing us that the energy harnessed upon the Tor can be utilised for either good or bad. You can just imagine a patient line of queuing and at odds sorcerers awaiting their turn! It’s equally funny and serious then, in this respect, when in 2005 a Dalek, those lunatic pepper-pot enemy of the time travelling fictional Dr Who, was stolen from an exhibition staged at nearby Wookey Hole Caves and deposited at the top of the Tor as if to claim it as its territory on behalf of malefaction. A manifestation brought about by the Collective Unconscious perhaps?

The Negative Tor – a cosmic icon lays claim

Two years later the South face of the Tower was covered in paint and graffiti by sympathisers of the voluntary run organisation Fathers4Justice. Negativity struck again when in 2010 the Holy Thorn was vandalised, hacked down leaving only its roots, the most likely culprits acting on behalf of those owed money by the owner of the land upon which the Thorn bloomed, having been sent to prison bankrupt owing the same figure as Michael Eavis’ annual profit. Another deficit came the following April when the Glastonbury Anglican Annual Pilgrimage, whereby 2,000 visit and ascend the Tor, and has been running since 1924, was scrapped due to soaring petrol costs, its future now in doubt.

High up on the Tor stands the Christian claim to the hill , the tower the remnants of a St Michaels church destroyed by an earthquake in 1275, the symbol of the Christian Prince of Peace meant to supplant all previous Pagan, and earlier Druidic, ownership of their own sacred hill. Should we ask, would the Christian god have destroyed his own church by his own act? Oh well. The most famous legend concerning the Tor, upon whom many a visitors have had a variety of weird experiences, is that in its ‘faery hill’ aspect it conceals the entrance to the underworld kingdom of Gwyn Ap Nudd, this beginning to touch on the hypothesis that Glastonbury is dimensional, which will please the many who claim UFO sightings there, including one previous Mayor of the town who one night witnessed what he himself called a ‘spaceship’ when he saw a reddish orange light appear above the Tor before sinking into the summit, more akin faerie activity than UFO. However, the suggestion that the Gwyn Ap Nudd legend is a reminiscence of a long forgotten potential dimensional opening based on the hill, currently referred to as a ‘portal’, may indeed be Glastonbury’s best bet for a genuine claim of the paranormal. With this is mind, or possibly Mind, although any such portal would be ancient, an interesting photo was taken only five years back by a local resident on one of his many daily walks.

Glastonbury Tor, Entrance to another dimension? 

On February 2007 at precisely 4.33pm on a bright day Mike Chenery was walking up Orchard Lane when his attention was drawn to the fact that all the singing birds that were about had suddenly stopped their song. This stillness and suspension is reminiscent of what occurs at the time of a solar eclipse when birds become temporarily disorientated. He was then at a gate that provides a vantage point view of one of the un-arched sides of the tower. Casually looking up at the top of the desolate Tor he saw a dazzling white ‘something’ that, in his own words, ‘glided’ a short distance from within the tower.

At first it showed itself as linear, long and very narrow, but then moved its perspective to face his direction as he stood watching it from his distance and in doing so it widened rather like at first being a door seen sideways on and then full frontal. As he always carries a camera with him on his regular and numerous jaunts and excursions, he only just found the time to take a picture on his digital camera and then the apparition that had only lasted seconds, simply ‘popped off’!  Kinder critics will naturally say that the photo shows some blemish associated either internally or externally with his camera, harsh cynics living in their left brain hemisphere all their life will and have inevitably harangued him with cries of ‘Photoshop!’ The photograph nevertheless remains intriguingly genuine and has never been exposed as fake. It wouldn’t be either, if, by absolute chance and serendipity, Mike has been presented with an authentic pic of a portal briefly opening, and it is as simple as that.  Check out his ‘The Spectre on Glastonbury Tor’ on YouTube.

A Portal opens?    (alongside)   

Enlargement  (Copyright Mike Chenery)

I have related some of my own Tor experiences in an earlier World Mysteries feature ‘Glastonbury Tor – Did a Portal open on 26/02/07?’ that date back as far as 1984 whereupon my first ascension –  at 11.30 at night October 30th – I was met within moments with a silent silver flash only feet above my head, soon after followed by a brief bombardment on each slope by what I can best describe as grey ping-pong balls!  I have visited the Tor many times since, in all seasons and all times of day, but from 2005-2011 I found myself unable to ascend beyond a specific point, actually ‘stuck’ and unable to go any further, filled with an immense and unaccountable fear wanting me to turn back, this being perhaps the most puzzling episode of my life to date. In July 2010 a lady correspondent sent me a still night image taken from the webcam which defies cries of conventional camera flare to show a strange insignia at precisely the spot I would get stuck, the correspondent unaware of it being my troublesome location.

 

to read the rest of the article, go to the source:    http://blog.world-mysteries.com/mystic-places/is-there-a-portal-on-glastonbury-tor/

Dr. Jeff Masters Compares 2012 Drought to Dust Bowl Days

Comparing the 2012 drought to the Dust Bowl droughts of the 1930s
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:52 PM GMT on August 16, 2012 +12

The great U.S. drought of 2012 remained about the same size and intensity over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, August 16. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought remained constant at 62%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought also remained constant at 46%. However, the area covered by the highest level of drought–exceptional–increased by 50%, from 4% to 6%. Large expansions of exceptional drought occurred over the heart of America’s grain producing areas, in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Missouri. The new NOAA State of the Climate Drought report for July 2012 shows that the 2012 drought is 5th greatest in U.S. history, and the worst in 56 years. The top five years for area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought:

1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Dec 1939, 60%
3) Jul 1954, 60%
4) Dec 1956, 58%
5) Jul 2012, 57%

The top five years for the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by severe or greater drought:

1) Jul 1934, 63%
2) Sep 1954, 50%
3) Dec 1956, 46%
4) Aug 1936, 43%
5) Jul 2012, 38%


Figure 1. August 14, 2012 drought conditions showed historic levels of drought across the U.S., with 62% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate or greater drought, and 46% of the county experiencing severe or greater drought. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Comparison with the great Dust Bowl droughts of the 1930s
An important fact to remember is that the 2012 drought is–so far–only a one-year drought. Recall that 2011 saw record rains that led to unprecedented flooding on the Mississippi, Ohio, and Missouri Rivers. In contrast, the great droughts of the 1950s and 1930s were multi-year droughts. The Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s lasted up to eight years in some places, with the peak years being 1934, 1936, and 1939 – 1940. Once the deep soil dries out, it maintains a memory of past drought years. This makes is easier to have a string of severe drought years. Since the deep soil this summer still maintains the memory of the very wet year of 2011, the 2012 drought will be easier to break than the Dust Bowl droughts of the 1930s were.

In addition, a repeat of the dust storms of the 1930s Dust Bowl is much less likely now, due to improved farming practices. In a 2009 paper titled, Amplification of the North American “Dust Bowl” drought through human-induced land degradation, a team of scientists led by Benjamin Cook of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory explained the situation:

During the 1920s, agriculture in the United States expanded into the central Great Plains. Much of the original, drought-resistant prairie grass was replaced with drought-sensitive wheat. With no drought plan and few erosion-control measures in place, this led to large-scale crop failures at the initiation of the drought, leaving fields devegetated and barren, exposing easily eroded soil to the winds. This was the source of the major dust storms and atmospheric dust loading of the period on a level unprecedented in the historical record.


Figure 2. Black Sunday: On April 14, 1935 a “Black Blizzard” hit Oklahoma and Texas with 60 mph winds, sweeping up topsoil loosened by the great Dust Bowl drought that began in 1934.

The Dust Bowl drought and heat of the 1930s: partially human-caused
Using computer models of the climate, the scientists found that the Dust Bowl drought was primarily caused by below-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and warmer than average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, which acted together to alter the path of the jet stream and bring fewer precipitation-bearing storms to the Central U.S. However, the full intensity of the drought and its spatial extent could not be explained by ocean temperature patterns alone. Only when their model included the impact of losing huge amounts of vegetation in the Plains due to poor farming practices could the full warmth of the 1930s be simulated. In addition, only by including the impact of the dust kicked up by the great dust storms of the Dust Bowl, which blocked sunlight and created high pressure zones of sinking air that discouraged precipitation, could the very low levels of precipitation be explained. The Dust Bowl drought had natural roots, but human-caused effects made the drought worse and longer-lasting. The fact that we are experiencing a drought in 2012 comparable to the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s–without poor farming practices being partially to blame–bodes ill for the future of drought in the U.S. With human-caused global warming expected to greatly increase the intensity and frequency of great droughts like the 2012 drought in coming decades, we can expect drought to cause an increasing amount of damage and economic hardship for the U.S. Since the U.S. is the world’s largest food exporter, this will also create an increasing amount of hardship and unrest in developing countries that rely on food imports.

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2188

Mutant Butterflies found in Fukushima

Fukushima ’caused mutant butterflies’ August 14, 2012 by Shingo Ito
Fukushima's mutant butterflies
Japan’s pale grass blue butterflies, showing signs of genetic mutation after last year’s Fukushima nuclear accident, according to researchers.
Genetic mutations have been found in three generations of butterflies from near Japan’s crippled Fukushima nuclear plant, scientists said Tuesday, raising fears radiation could affect other species.
Around 12 percent of pale grass blue butterflies that were exposed to nuclear fallout as larvae immediately after the tsunami-sparked disaster had abnormalities, including smaller wings and damaged eyes, researchers said.
The insects were mated in a laboratory well outside the fallout zone and 18 percent of their offspring displayed similar problems, said Joji Otaki, associate professor at Ryukyu University in Okinawa, southwestern Japan.
That figure rose to 34 percent in the third generation of butterflies, he said, even though one parent from each coupling was from an unaffected population.
The researchers also collected another 240 butterflies in Fukushima in September last year, six months after the disaster. Abnormalities were recorded in 52 percent of their offspring, which was “a dominantly high ratio”, Otaki told AFP.
Otaki said the high ratio could result from both external and internal exposure to radiation from the atmosphere and in contaminated foodstuffs.
The results of the study were published in Scientific Reports, an online research journal from the publishers of Nature. Otaki later carried out a comparison test in Okinawa exposing unaffected butterflies to low levels of radiation, with the results showing similar rates of abnormality, he said. “We have reached the firm conclusion that radiation released from the Fukushima Daiichi plant damaged the genes of the butterflies,” Otaki said.
The quake-sparked tsunami of March 2011 knocked out cooling systems at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, causing three reactors to go into meltdown in the world’s worst atomic disaster for 25 years.
The findings will raise fears over the long-term effects of the leaks on people who were exposed in the days and weeks after the accident, as radiation spread over a large area and forced thousands to evacuate. There are claims that the effects of nuclear exposure have been observed on successive generations of descendants of people living in Hiroshima and Nagasaki when the US dropped atomic bombs in the final days of World War II.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2012-08-fukushima-mutant-butterflies-scientists.html#jCp

Kuril Islands Volcanic Activity

Minor Eruption from the Grozny Group in the Kuril Islands

A 1989 image of the Ivan Grozny dome in the Grozny Group (Kuril Islands, Russia). Image by A. Samoluk, courtesy of the Smithsonian Institute/USGS Global Volcanism Program.

It took a little bit to decipher, but it appears that the Grozny Group in the Kuril Islands may have had its first eruption since 1989. A couple of reports out of Russia suggest that the Ivan Gronzy (Ivan the Terrible; see above) dome in this cluster of lava domes within a caldera may have had a small eruption that spread ash across Iturup Island. One article says that the plume may have only been ~1 km, but it was enough to for people to note ash fall in Goryachiye Klyuchi (9 km) and Kurilsk (25 km).

Beyond this, the news is, well, hard to understand. The article in the Moscow Times claims that the eruption was caused by “increased water flows rushing into the volcano after heavy downpours” and that people noticed “hydrogen peroxide fumes“. Now, I’m hoping a lot of this is merely lost in translation as the ITAS TASS article talks about there no longer being a hydrogen sulfide odor in the area.

In any case, if this eruption is confirmed, it is the first at the Grozny Group since 1989. The complex of volcanoes is a very hydrothermally active area, with strong fumaroles, mostly at Machekh Crater. However, all the historic eruptions from the Grozny Group, including the one in 1989, have come from Ivan Gronzy, as this new eruption seems to be as well.

from:    http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/08/minor-eruption-from-the-grozny-group-in-the-kuril-islands/#more-125503

Earthquake — Near Tahiti

Moderate earthquake close to Tahiti

Last update: August 16, 2012 at 3:26 pm by By

Moderate earthquake close to Tahiti
A moderate earthquake with a Magnitude of M4.7 occurred close to the Mahaeana coast of Tahiti, French Polynesia. As the epicenter of the earthquake is below the sea bed, the shaking on the island was rather limited. Experience reports from people in Papeete, where the earthquake was also felt, are talking about a weak shaking.

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/08/15/major-earthquakes-list-august-16-2012/

El Hierro Update — New Earthquake Swarms

El Hierro Volcano : Green pre-alert – A new earthquake swarm has started below El Hierro – 40 earthquakes until 13:47 UTC

Last update: August 16, 2012 at 4:32 pm by By

Update 16/08 – 16:25 UTC
– 3 more earthquakes from M0.9 to M1.1 at a depth of 11 to 12 km (12:25 to 13:47 UTC)
– Maybe IGN could take a few courses in press reporting at GNS Science New Zealand. If an important new swarm starts, like the one today (even with weak earthquakes), an experienced volcanologist may write 5 sentences in explaining what the opinion of the organization is. Why does a body like Pevolca is to be used for volcanology ? If i would live in Sabinosa, i would love to hear a few words  if continuous quakes are occurring below my house.

Update 16/08 – 13:37 UTC
5 more earthquakes in between M0.6 and M1.2 and at depths in between 10 and 11 km

Image courtesy Avcan

Update 16/08 – 11:53 UTC
– We have to continue bringing updates on the seismicity below the island.
4 more earthquakes bringing the total on 32 today. Magnitudes from M1.0 until M1.5. Depths 10-11 km. IGN has updated his list up to 08:30 UTC
– At right a small map with the epicenters of a number of the latest earthquakes.

Update 16/08 – 09:50 UTC
– 1 earthquake has to be added since our latest update (07:29 – 11 km depth – Magnitude M 1.5)
– For your comfort, we have cut 2/3ths of this article. Parts 49 and 50 (yes 50!) have been archived. Links to all those 50 parts can be found at the bottom of this page.


The latest 10 earthquake epicenters – image ourtesy Avcan

Very important Update 16/08 – 08:19 UTC – A new earthquake swarm has started below El Hierro
– For the 3th day in a row the number of earthquakes are fundamentally increasing below El Hierro. Although not official, we think that speaking of a new earthquake swarm is the only right way of describing the current set of earthquakes.
– No less than 26 earthquakes occurred this morning (from midnight UTC until 07:00 AM)
– The majority of the earthquakes are still weak, but the M2.2 from early this morning was the strongest in a while and the Magnitude pattern tends to become stronger every couple of hours.
– The CHIE seismogram is not showing a lot of action, but the M2.2 can well be seen. CHIE is not the best station at the moment to show the seismic events at his best.
– The depth is continuing around the 10 to 12 km which is a complete difference from the July swarm, but still far away from an eruption. More seismicity at lesser depths is needed to create a pre-eruptive condition. Newt to seismicity, we have also the gas analysis, the deformation, etc who will have to confirm if the present swarm will end in an eruption. The magma pressure should be powerful enough to find his way up.
– We do not know how many  University of Nagoya GPS stations are still working, but we know for sure that FRON station still works and shows a vertical increase of many mm, which sounds normal after the present set of increasing earthquakes in the area.
– A reason for concern at this time should be the location of the seismicity (El Golfo Bay and Sabinosa area – including the cliffs south of Sabinosa). Landslides and rockfall may become dangerous at Magnitudes from M4 and up.

for more information, history, and updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/09/25/el-hierro-canary-islands-spain-volcanic-risk-alert-increased-to-yellow/

 

Nazca Lines — FYI

Nazca Lines: Mysterious Geoglyphs in Peru

Owen Jarus, LiveScience Contributor
Date: 14 August 2012

The Nazca (also spelled Nasca) Lines are geoglyphs located in an arid coastal area of Peru that cover an estimated 170 square miles (450 square kilometers).

Scratched on the ground, they number in the thousands and depict creatures from both the natural world and the human imagination. They include animals such as the spider, hummingbird, monkey, lizard, pelican and even a killer whale. Also depicted are plants, trees, flowers and oddly shaped fantastic figures. Also illustrated are geometric motifs such as wavy lines, triangles, spirals and rectangles.

Nazca Lines resembling a humming bird, as viewed from a plane.
The animal mounds were found in a region famous for a series of ancient geolyphs, called the Nazca Lines, which are now considered a World Heritage Site in the Nazca Desert in southern Peru. Here, Nazca Lines resembling a humming bird, as viewed from a plane.
CREDIT: tr3gin | Shutterstock

How old are they?

The vast majority of the lines date from 200 BC to 500 AD, to a time when a people referred to as the Nazca inhabited the region. The earliest lines, created with piled up stones, date as far back as 500 BC.

Who made them?

The Nazca people were an ancient prehistoric culture that was successful in using engineering techniques to bring underground water to the surface for irrigation. Some of the theories regarding the purpose of the lines connect them to this need for water.

One of their largest settlements is Cahuachi, a place of ceremony that overlooks some of the lines. It contains more than 40 mounds, including pyramids made of adobe.

When were they “discovered”?

Peruvian archaeologist Toribio Mejia Xesspe was the first to study and report the Nazca Lines in detail after coming across them, on foot, in 1927. In the 1930s as air traffic in the area increased, the lines became better known, eventually attracting a steady stream of tourists.

It’s often stated that the lines can only be seen from the air; however, this is a myth. A 2007 study that looked at 1,500 drawings in the Palpa region found that “each and every geoglyph” can be spotted from the ground.

Theories and significance

The purpose of the lines continues to elude researchers and remains a matter of conjecture. Ancient Nazca culture was prehistoric, which means they left no written records.

One idea is that they are linked to the heavens with some of the lines representing constellations in the night sky. Another idea is that the lines play a role in pilgrimage, with one walking across them to reach a sacred place such as Cahuachi and its adobe pyramids. Yet another idea is that the lines are connected with water, something vital to life yet hard to get in the desert, and may have played a part in water-based rituals.

In the absence of a firm archaeological conclusion a number of fringe theories have popped up, such as the idea that the Nazca people used balloons to observe the lines from up high, something which there is no archaeological evidence for.

— Owen Jarus

from:    http://www.livescience.com/22370-nazca-lines.html

Dr. Jeff Masters on Desert Heat, Hot Rain, Tropical Developments

Hottest rain on record? Rain falls at 115°F in Needles, California
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:19 PM GMT on August 15, 2012 +19

A searing heat wave rare even for the Desert Southwest sent temperatures soaring to record levels on Monday, with Needles, California tying its record high for the date of 118°F (47.8°C). The temperature might have gone higher in Needles, but a thunderstorm rolled in at 3:20 pm, and by 3:56 pm PDT, rain began falling at a temperature of 115°F (46.1°C). Most of the rain evaporated, since the humidity was only 11%, and only a trace of precipitation was recorded in the rain gauge. Nevertheless, Monday’s rain at 115° in Needles sets a new world record for the hottest rain in world history. I don’t think many people were outside to experience to experience the feeling of rain falling at 115°, but if they were, it must have been an uncomfortable, sauna-like experience! Thanks go to Dr. Warren Blier of the NWS Monterey office for pointing out this remarkable event to me.

It is exceedingly rare to get rain when the temperature rises above 100°F, since those kind of temperatures usually require a high pressure system with sinking air that discourages rainfall. Monday’s rain in Needles was due to a flow of moisture coming from the south caused by the Southwest U.S. monsoon, a seasonal influx of moisture caused by the difference in temperature between the hot desert and the cooler ocean areas surrounding Mexico to the south. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the previous record for hottest rain, which I blogged about in June, was a rain shower at 109°F (43°C) observed in Mecca, Saudi Arabia on June 5, 2012 and in Marrakech, Morocco on July 10, 2010. The 11% humidity that accompanied Monday’s rain shower at 115° in Needles was the lowest humidity rain has ever occurred at anywhere on Earth in recorded history, according to Mr. Herrera.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of California and Arizona taken at 1:25 pm PDT August 13, 2012. Developing thunderstorms surround Needles, CA, and the line of clouds to the southwest of the city would develop into a thunderstorm that brought rain to the city at 4 pm PDT, at a temperature of 115°F. Image credit: NASA.

A “very rare” heat wave for Phoenix
The heat wave that brought Needles’ record hot rain has broken an exceptional number of heat records in Phoenix, Arizona the past two weeks. According to the Phoenix NWS office, the “almost unbearable heat” of the first two weeks of August is a “very rare” event, and August 1 – 14, 2012 was the warmest such 2-week period in city history. The average temperature on August 6 – 13 was 100°F or higher each of the eight days, tying the record for most consecutive days with an average temperature of 100°. The temperature peaked at 116° on August 8, just 6° below Phoenix’s all-time record of 122° set on June 26, 1990. The forecast for Phoenix call for a bit of relief–highs are expected to be a relatively modest 105° today, and down near 100° by Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 93L over the Central Atlantic.

93L close to tropical depression status
A large tropical wave (Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles east of Bermuda. Satellite loops this morning show a surface circulation has formed, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased to the point where 93L should be considered a tropical depression, if the heavy thunderstorms can persist through this afternoon. Wind shear is light, and ocean temperatures are warm, near 28°C. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L has moistened its environment considerably, and dry air should no longer be a significant impediment to development. The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will remain in the low range through the weekend, and I expect this system will become Tropical Storm Gordon by Friday. The storm will not affect Bermuda, but residents of the Azores Islands should keep an eye on 93L, which could pass through the islands as early as Sunday night. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Friday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In the Gulf of Mexico, a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out early next week, and the GFS model is predicting something could start to spin up near the Texas/Mexico border on Monday. Wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms.

Most of the models predict development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 6 – 7 days from now.

From:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2186