Indonesia – Kelud Volcano Erupts

Kelud Eruption Kills Three People, Forces 100,000 to Evacuate

The eruption at Kelud (Kelut) on February 14, 2014. Image: @hilmi_dzi / Twitter, used by permission.

The eruption at Kelud (Kelut) on February 14, 2014. Image: @hilmi_dzi / Twitter, used by permission.

The eruption at Kelud (Kelut) has rapidly become another humanitarian crisis for Indonesia. After the impressive explosive eruption yesterday, over 100,000 people have had to evacuate the region around the volcano in case further explosions occur. The heavy ash fall from the explosion has coated towns and cities (see below) over 100 km from the volcano and lead to injuries and deaths after a roof collapsed at one of the evacuation shelters. Currently, the death toll from the eruption is only 3 (2 from the roof collapse and 1 from ash inhalation), but that number may climb. At least three international airport were closed due to the ash and the plume itself (at least the sulfur dioxide) was still clearly visible in satellite images (see below). Some people leaving comments on yesterday’s post said they heard the blast of the eruption over 180 km from the volcano and ash was falling upwards of 200 km distant — to the tune of 5 cm! Be sure to check out the discussion of the shockwave from the blast over on the CIMSS Satellite Blog.

 

The sulfur dioxide plume from the Kelud eruption, seen at XXX UTC on February 14, 2014 via GOME-2. Image: XXX

The sulfur dioxide plume from the Kelud eruption, seen at 0637 UTC on February 14, 2014 via OMI. Image: OMI/NASA-NOAA

The PVMBG has said that they were surprised how quickly the volcano went from having shallow earthquakes to a full-on eruption. Normally, they expect at least 6 hours between the onset of earthquakes before an eruption at Kelud, but in the February 14 eruption, it was only ~2 hours. This meant that implementing the evacuation after raising the alert status was very difficult for Indonesian disaster relief agencies.

The ash from the February 14, 2014 eruption of Kelud in Yogyakarta. Image: Robert Schrader, used by permission.

The ash from the February 14, 2014 eruption of Kelud in Yogyakarta, ~200 km from the volcano. Image: Robert Schrader, used by permission.

Activity at Kelud tends to be punctuated — at least looking at past eruptions — where an explosive event occurs and then the volcano settles. However, it is unclear from any of the reports I’ve seen whether the PVMBG thinks that new eruptions are coming soon. Based on the evacuation that is occurring, my guess is that they think that the volcano will be restless for the foreseeable future. I haven’t seen any news about lahars generated by the eruption so far, but they are a major hazard with any activity at Kelud. Most volcanologists I’ve heard from about the February 14 eruption say it looks to be on scale with the 1990 eruption, which was a VEI 4.

from:    http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2014/02/kelud-eruption-kills-3-people-forces-100000-evacuate/#more-543661

Venezuela Earthquake

Strong slightly damaging earthquake in Venezuela

Last update: February 19, 2014 at 10:57 pm by By Armand Vervaeck

Update 14:45 UTC : Several buildings in El Tocuyo, among them at least one hospital, suffered minor damage. Some public buildings, mainly schools, were temporarily closed. So far no reports of injuries.

Update 11:27 UTC : Funvisis has changed his earthquake data into M5.2 at 3.4 km = still extremely shallow and extremely dangerous for serious damage.

Update 11:23 UTC : First earthquake reports are mentioning a M5.5 at 10 km. Funvisis, the local seismological agency, is reporting a M5.8 t a very shallow depth. If this is confirmed, we call this earthquake “extremely dangerous” for serious damage and/or injuries as the epicenter area is relatively populated.

Screen Shot 2014-02-19 at 12.29.40

11km (7mi) S of Sanare, Venezuela
22km (14mi) SE of El Tocuyo, Venezuela
31km (19mi) S of Quibor, Venezuela
48km (30mi) WNW of Araure, Venezuela
283km (176mi) SSW of Willemstad, Cura????ao

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 5.3

Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2014-02-19 06:40:12

GMT/UTC Time : 2014-02-19 11:10:12

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2014/02/19/strong-earthquake-venezuela-on-february-19-2014/

Caribbean Earthquake

Very strong (probably harmless) earthquake in the Caribbean (East of Martinique, Barbados, Grenada, etc.)

Last update: February 18, 2014 at 10:54 am by By

Tsunami : The official report for the Caribbean :
EVALUATION :  A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON  HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
HOWEVER – THERE IS THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL OR REGIONAL  TSUNAMI THAT COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A  FEW HUNDRED KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES  IN THE REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE MADE AWARE OF THIS  POSSIBILITY.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY PRODUCT ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.
GDACS gives in his theoretical models a Max. tsunami height of 10 cm. This will normally not be perceivable by people along the coast, but the risk of strong currents is a real danger. Our advice today : keep out of the water (also for the chance of very strong aftershocks).

Update : The Epicenter of this earthquake is too far away from the coastal areas of the Caribbean Islands to be a real danger for these countries.

Screen Shot 2014-02-18 at 11.38.02 Screen Shot 2014-02-18 at 11.38.16 Screen Shot 2014-02-18 at 11.38.25 Screen Shot 2014-02-18 at 11.38.41

172km (107mi) NNE of Bathsheba, Barbados
187km (116mi) NNE of Bridgetown, Barbados
203km (126mi) E of Le Francois, Martinique
204km (127mi) E of Riviere-Pilote, Martinique
207km (129mi) E of Le Robert, Martinique

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 6.5

Local Time (conversion only below land) : Unknown

GMT/UTC Time : 2014-02-18 09:27:14

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2014/02/18/very-strong-earthquake-east-of-martinique-windward-is-on-february-18-2014/

American Farmers GOing GMO-Free

How American Food Companies Go GMO-Free In A GMO World

by

Allen Williams grows corn and soybeans for Clarkson Grain, which has been selling GMO-free grain to Japan for years.

Allen Williams grows corn and soybeans for Clarkson Grain, which has been selling GMO-free grain to Japan for years.

Dan Charles/NPR

Quite possibly, you’ve noticed some new food labels out there, like “Not made with genetically modified ingredients” or “GMO-free.” You might have seen them on boxes of , or on . If you’ve shopped at Whole Foods, that retailer it now sells more than 3,000 products that have been certified as “non-GMO.”

But where does non-GMO food come from? After all, 90 percent of America’s corn and soybeans are genetically modified, and producers of eggs, milk and meat rely on those crops to feed their animals. Soy oil and corn starch are used throughout the industry. Can big food companies really avoid GMOs?

Looking for the answer, I ended up at one of the first links in the non-GMO supply chain: a corn processing facility just north of the small town of Cerro Gordo, in west-central Illinois.

A robotic arm at Clarkson Grain takes a sample of blue corn to be tested for GMOs.

A robotic arm at Clarkson Grain takes a sample of blue corn to be tested for GMOs.

Dan Charles/NPR

Truckloads of corn arrive here and stop at the “scale house,” where they’re weighed. A remote-controlled steel probe dives into each load and sucks out some grain for testing.

That’s all standard at any corn handling facility. But at this processing plant, operated by , there’s one more test: a quick, five-minute check to see if this corn contains specific proteins that are the signature of genetic modification.

Farmers have embraced these novel proteins; they protect a growing cornstalk from some insects, or weedkillers. So, at almost any corn processing facility in America, this test would come up positive.

But here, a positive test means rejection; the truck has to turn around and leave.

Clarkson Grain only accepts GMO-free grain because that’s what its customers want.

“We don’t tell people what their values should be. We inquire, and then we do our best to support those values,” says , the company’s founder.

Clarkson has been in the grain business for 40 years. He doesn’t seem terribly excited about prices and profits, but he loves to talk about relationships: about the customers and suppliers who’ve stayed with him for decades, or the telegram of thanks he got, years ago, after his first foreign deal. “That was the first compliment I had ever received in the grain business in 20 years,” he recalls. “Most of us want to make money, but we also want to do something that somebody appreciates.”

Lynn Clarkson founded Clarkson Grain, which accepts only non-GMO grain.

Lynn Clarkson founded Clarkson Grain, which accepts only non-GMO grain.

Dan Charles/NPR

That story, and the story of Lynn Clarkson’s company, helps explain how American food companies can, in fact, go GMO-free in a world filled with GMOs.

And the story starts years ago, long before any GMOs existed.

Lynn Clarkson was a small-town grain dealer looking for new buyers for his corn. He drove to Chicago to talk to food companies, and he realized that they had a problem. “If you ask food processors anywhere in the world, 90 percent of them will tell you there’s too much variation in incoming raw materials,” he says.

The corn that these food processors were buying wasn’t consistent. They’d cook it and get widely varying results.

Clarkson told them that this problem had a simple cause. They were getting perhaps 30 different genetic types of corn in each shipment.

Clarkson also proposed a solution: “buying a single variety, a single hybrid, delivered at any one time, so you’re not mixing different cooking characteristics.”

Clarkson set up a system that allowed him to deliver exactly that. He signed contracts with farmers near his hometown of Cerro Gordo, agreeing to pay them a little extra to supply specific corn hybrids, or particular varieties of soybeans.

He delivered this uniform, predictable grain to food companies, first in Chicago and then to those appreciative foreign buyers — in particular, in Japan.

When GMOs came on the scene about 20 years ago, it turned out that his Japanese customers didn’t want them. Japanese food companies were suspicious of the new technology and didn’t want to risk a hostile consumer reaction.

So Clarkson tweaked his supply chain to deliver what the Japanese wanted. He made sure his farmers grew varieties that weren’t genetically engineered. The non-GMO niche was born.

He wasn’t the only one doing this. Clarkson shows me, on a wall map, the concentration of farmers who supply the Japanese market. Many are along the Illinois and Ohio rivers, with easy access to ships heading toward Asia.

There are thousands of them, and they’re now happy to supply customers in the U.S., too.

“U.S. buyers often think that we’re starting from scratch” with non-GMO grain, Clarkson says. “Well, we’re not. We’re starting from millions of bushels of demand that are in place and being satisfied on a regular basis for Asian clients.”

Most of these farmers don’t have any philosophical objection to genetic engineering. In fact, most of them grow both GMO and non-GMO crops.

Allen Williams, who grows grain for Lynn Clarkson, says the choice to grow non-GMO grain simply comes down to money. “You’re just trying to improve your profit,” he says. “There’s not a lot of ways to do that, if you’re growing commodities. This is one way to do that.”

He’ll sell his non-GMO grain for 10 percent or 15 percent more than the standard market price. But there are complications. Some of the extra income gets eaten up by extra costs. He’ll spend more money on pesticides, for instance, for his non-GMO soybean fields.

He also has to make sure the grain he sends to Clarkson Grain doesn’t contain any traces of his GMO crops. So when he finishes harvesting one of his GMO fields, he has to spend hours cleaning out his combine.

“You know, time is of the essence during harvest,” he says. “So to take time during harvest to clean out equipment and storage locations and transportation equipment is very expensive for a farmer.”

A GMO test kit in use at Clarkson Grain

A GMO test kit in use at Clarkson Grain

Dan Charles/NPR

Also, because corn pollen blows in the wind, he has to make sure his non-GMO fields of corn are a hundred feet from any GMO corn fields.

The separation doesn’t always work perfectly. But Lynn Clarkson says the food industry is pragmatic; companies know that they have to tolerate small traces of GMOs. “It always comes down to: How do you define GMO-free?” he says. “What’s the tolerance level? If it’s zero, we might as well have a drink and part friendly, because we can’t do business. We cannot hit a zero standard.”

People just need to know, he says, that in the U.S., “GMO-free” means that something contains no more than 0.9 percent GMOs.

Demand for non-GMO grain is growing. Lynn Clarkson has told farmers that he’ll buy about 25 percent more non-GMO grain next year.

At the company’s modest offices beside the railroad tracks in the small town of Cerro Gordo, Wyatt Muse is fielding calls and emails. “We have everything from the home survivalist wanting a 5-gallon bucket for their basement, up to people wanting a Panamax vessel to ship it into East Asia,” he says.

The latest query, sitting on Muse’s desk, is from a snack food company in Europe. It wants non-GMO corn. “We’re going to send one container next week, and assuming they like the quality, we would probably be doing a 100 to 120 containers over the next few months,” he says.

In the world of international grain trading, that’s still pretty small. But there’s a potential development that could transform this small niche market, Clarkson says: a surge in orders for animal feed. A few poultry and egg producers already are going GMO-free; if others do the same, the non-GMO wave could turn into a tsunami.

from:    http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2014/02/04/269479079/how-american-food-companies-go-gmo-free-in-a-gmo-world

Georgia Earthquake

Moderate earthquake in Georgia / South Carolina, USA – some slight damage expected / reported

Last update: February 15, 2014 at 6:00 am by By

Why earthquakes in this area of the United States ?
Earthquakes in the Inland Carolinas Region
Since at least 1776, people living inland in North and South Carolina, and in adjacent parts of Georgia and Tennessee, have felt small earthquakes and suffered damage from infrequent larger ones. The largest earthquake in the area (magnitude 5.1) occurred in 1916. Moderately damaging earthquakes strike the inland Carolinas every few decades, and smaller earthquakes are felt about once each year or two.
Earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S., although less frequent than in the western U.S., are typically felt over a much broader region. East of the Rockies, an earthquake can be felt over an area as much as ten times larger than a similar magnitude earthquake on the west coast. A magnitude 4.0 eastern U.S. earthquake typically can be felt at many places as far as 100 km (60 mi) from where it occurred, and it infrequently causes damage near its source. A magnitude 5.5 eastern U.S. earthquake usually can be felt as far as 500 km (300 mi) from where it occurred, and sometimes causes damage as far away as 40 km (25 mi).

Screen Shot 2014-02-15 at 06.53.02

Faults
Earthquakes everywhere occur on faults within bedrock, usually miles deep. Most bedrock beneath the inland Carolinas was assembled as continents collided to form a supercontinent about 500-300 million years ago, raising the Appalachian Mountains. Most of the rest of the bedrock formed when the supercontinent rifted apart about 200 million years ago to form what are now the northeastern U.S., the Atlantic Ocean, and Europe.
At well-studied plate boundaries like the San Andreas fault system in California, often scientists can determine the name of the specific fault that is responsible for an earthquake. In contrast, east of the Rocky Mountains this is rarely the case. The inland Carolinas region is far from the nearest plate boundaries, which are in the center of the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea. The region is laced with known faults but numerous smaller or deeply buried faults remain undetected. Even the known faults are poorly located at earthquake depths. Accordingly, few, if any, earthquakes in the inland Carolinas can be linked to named faults. It is difficult to determine if a known fault is still active and could slip and cause an earthquake. As in most other areas east of the Rockies, the best guide to earthquake hazards in the seismic zone is the earthquakes themselves. (Source USGS)

Update : An Edgefield Water Utility representative said the floor of Edgefield County Hospital may be cracked. No evacuation has been made as of yet. An over flow of the Edgefield Co. water towers was scheduled previously. It has nothing to do with the earthquake.

Update : Residents of High Point, more than 150 miles from the epicenter, reported feeling the earthquake. The tremors were also felt in much of northern Georgia and even in southeastern Tennessee.

broken bottles in a supermarket in Augusta - Twitter image courtesy and copyright @cornermanjames

broken bottles in a supermarket in Augusta – Twitter image courtesy and copyright @cornermanjames

Update : The map below shows how strong people felt it

Screen Shot 2014-02-15 at 06.17.32

Update : light damage like the picture below can be expected on many places.

Update : A hospital in Edgefield has a crack in the floor and is preparing to evacuate, according to WSPA. There have not yet been other reports of serious damage.

Screen Shot 2014-02-15 at 05.54.20

twitter image courtesy Tyler E Santee

Screen Shot 2014-02-15 at 04.59.07 Screen Shot 2014-02-15 at 04.59.18 Screen Shot 2014-02-15 at 04.59.26

12km (7mi) WNW of Edgefield, South Carolina
31km (19mi) NNE of Evans, Georgia
32km (20mi) N of Martinez, Georgia
35km (22mi) NNW of North Augusta, South Carolina
97km (60mi) WSW of Columbia, South Carolina

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 4.1

from:     http://earthquake-report.com/2014/02/15/strong-earthquake-georgia-usa-on-february-15-2014/

Dangerous Quake – Xinjiang, CHina

Extremely dangerous earthquake in Xinjiang, China

Last update: February 12, 2014 at 1:40 pm by By

Update 13:24 UTC : Cattle is reportedly killed in the greater epicenter area. Some train connections where temporarily suspended in Xinjiang but where restored after inspection of the rails proved that no damage was inflicted (at a big distance from the epicenter).
the picture below shows the (beautiful) scenery in the valley near the epicenter. The epicenter is located in the (not visible) mountains behind this picture. People in Xinjiang are used to earthquakes, even strong earthquakes but primitive old houses are very vulnerable for damage.

Screen Shot 2014-02-12 at 14.34.26

Update 11:59 UTC : The Xinjiang seismological authority reports that several houses collapsed in the greater epicenter area. We expect more news from the rescue teams in 1 to 2 hours. The Chinese Earthquake response is one of the quickest and best organized in the world. China has a history of many cruel earthquakes sometimes with +100000 fatalities.
A new shake-map has been published by USGS. They are now reporting a IX MMI in the unpopulated epicenter area.

Screen Shot 2014-02-12 at 13.00.25 Screen Shot 2014-02-12 at 13.00.40 Screen Shot 2014-02-12 at 13.11.10

Update 11:33 UTC :
Official statement from the Xinjiang Earthquake authority :
Yutian County, 7.3 magnitude earthquake.
The Xinjiang autonomous Seismological Bureau immediately launched an emergency plan. We try to quickly find out what happened in the epicenter area and called Yutian County by telephone. Locations in Yutian county felt the earthquake strongly. Buildings in Yutian are reported with cracks. No word of  casualties so far.
Officers have been send to the epicenter area to investigate the disaster. Autonomous Region Seismological Bureau intends to sent a 23 people on-site work team with a  flight to conduct field work. Hotan Prefecture Earthquake Seismic Bureau has rushed staff  to the quake zone to report on the disaster. China Seismological Bureau will sent 13 people for earthquake fieldwork  and to assist the local governments to carry out emergency work days.

Update 10:27 UTC: A rescue team was sent by the Xinjiang government to check the affected area.

Update 09:54 UTC : An aftershock of M5.7 @ 5 km depth is just reported by one of my colleagues. Such an aftershock alone can be damaging in China!

Update 09:53 UTC : Max Wyss reports that he expects 0 to 50 fatalities and 0 to 120 injured but his data is based on the USGS data who report a Magnitude of 6.8 at 2 km. Chinese data are more dangerous at 7.3 at 12 km deep. Max Wyss also reports that only 1 small settlement is located within the 50 km radius around the epicenter.

Screen Shot 2014-02-12 at 10.57.49

Update 09:49 UTC : A similar strength earthquake along the same fault killed 100 people in 1924!

Update 09:41 UTC : CEIC, the seismological agency of the Chinese government is reporting a Magnitude of 7.3 at a depth of 12 km !

Update 09:39 UTC : The epicenter is located in a sparsely populated area, but the Magnitude is so strong that we expect serious damage and injured people in a radius of  at least 50 km.

This earthquake is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS for all villages in a radius of 50 km around the epicenter. Slight damage can be expected in a radius as far as 150 km from the epicenter.

Screen Shot 2014-02-12 at 10.34.42

844 km NE of Ludhiāna, India / pop: 1,545,368 / local time: 14:49:48.0 2014-02-12
739 km NE of Shimla, India / pop: 173,503 / local time: 14:49:48.0 2014-02-12
277 km SE of Hotan, China / pop: 114,000 / local time: 17:19:48.0 2014-02-12

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 6.9

Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2014-02-12 17:19:50

GMT/UTC Time : 2014-02-12 09:19:50

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2014/02/12/very-strong-earthquake-southern-xinjiang-china-on-february-12-2014/

Planet Sized Object Approaching Earth

Professor At Univ Of Texas Gives Coordinates Of Planet Inbound Toward Earth, UFO Sighting News.

Date closest to Earth: August 2014
Source: Proffessor At Univ of Texas
Planets speed: 10,713,600 miles per day
Turner: http://www.turnerradionetwork.com/news/237-pat
Video link (gone): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmeLFeCahu0

Coordinates to see this inbound planet are:
Right Ascension:  04 hrs.  08 Min.   08 Sec.
Declination: 60 degrees  56 arc min.  43 arc sec.
Moving toward earth at 200 Kps


Turner Radio Network states (More At Source):
According to Dr. Kaplan, the planet-sized object will be at Earth by August, 2014.  Kaplan says prior to its arrival, Earth will experience more and more adverse effects from the gravity of this planet.  TRN inquired of other astronomy and geological experts and they told us that if Kaplan’s  scenario is true, the problems Earth will experience would begin with weather anomalies and tidal anomalies, will increase to earthquakes then volcanic eruptions as Earth’s magma is pulled by the gravity of the approaching planet.  The experts went on to tell us the troubles would increase further to horrific tsunamis 1000 meters high, moving at 1200 kilometers per hour striking coastal regions around the Earth and, ultimately, when this planet is closest by August 2014, Earth will suffer widespread destruction from shifting tectonic plates on a massive scale.  One expert even claimed that depending upon the size and gravity of the planet, and its angle of approach, the gravity of this other planet could actually STOP the Earth from rotating on its axis.  He likened it to a vehicle traveling at 1,000 miles per hour, and having the brakes slammed on; the resulting inertia of all objects on earth would cause them to continue moving while the earth was stopping; sort of like what happens in a car wreck when the car suddenly stops, but the passengers fly forward from their own inertia.   While Kaplan himself did not make any such claims, he did say the approach and  passage of this planet “will reconstruct the surface of the Earth into something we don’t even know.”

Video:    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AGCLj7r3VM
article source:    http://www.ufosightingsdaily.com/2014/02/professor-at-univ-of-texas-gives.html

Earth Changes Increasing

Source: Suspicious0bservers

Earth and Space Weather News Feb 6, 2014:

from:     http://consciouslifenews.com/earth-space-weather-news-feb-6-2014-large-quakes-increasing-asteroid-anatomy/1170409/

Jeff Masters on California Drought

California’s Sierra Snowpack Only 12% of Average, a Record Low

Published: 4:32 PM GMT on January 31, 2014

California’s first significant snow storm of 2014 hit the Sierras on Wednesday and Thursday, dumping up to 2 feet of snow, with a melted water equivalent of up to two inches. However, this modest snowstorm was not enough to keep the Sierra snowpack from recording its lowest snow amounts in more than 50 years of record keeping during Thursday’s Sierra Snow Survey. The survey found a snow pack that was only 12% of normal for this time of year. Until Thursday, the lowest statewide snowpack measurement at this time of year was 21% of average, in 1991 and 1963, according to the Los Angeles Times. Since snowpack in the Sierras forms a crucial source of water for California, the dismal snow survey results are a huge concern.


Figure 1. Frank Gehrke, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Survey Program for the Department of Water Resources, walks leaves a snow covered meadow after the second snow survey of the year near Echo Summit, Calif., Thursday, Jan. 30, 2014. Despite the overnight snow storm the survey showed the snow depth at 12.4 inches with a water content of only 1.4 inches for this location at this time of the year. Gehrke said that while the recent snow fall will help, it is not enough to impact the water supply.(AP Photo)

The forecast: little drought relief in sight
One of the most persistent and intense ridges of high pressure ever recorded in North America has been anchored over the West Coast since December 2012. While the ridge has occasionally broken down and allowed low pressure systems to leak though, these storms have mostly brought spotty and meager precipitation to California, resulting in California’s driest year on record during 2013. January 2014 could well be its driest January on record. The ridge inevitably builds back after each storm, clamping down on any moisture reaching the state. Since rain-bearing low pressure systems tend to travel along the axis of the jet stream, these storms are being carried along the axis of the ridge, well to the north of California and into Southeast Alaska, leaving California exceptionally dry. The latest runs of the GFS and European models show that the ridge is now building back, and it appears likely that California will see no significant precipitation until at least February 7. A weak upper level low will move along the coast on Sunday and spread some light rain along the immediate coast, but this precipitation will generally be less than 0.25″–too little to have any significant impact on the drought. The ridge will not be as intense when it builds back, though, which gives me some hope that a low pressure system will be able to break the ridge by mid-February and bring the most significant rains of the winter rainy season to California.


Figure 2. One of the key water supply reservoirs for Central California, Lake Oroville, as seen on January 20, 2014. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.

Worst California drought in 500 years?
UC Berkeley paleoclimatologist B. Lynn Ingram, author of “The West Without Water: What Past Floods, Droughts, and Other Climatic Clues Tell Us About Tomorrow”, said in an interview, “this could potentially be the driest water year in 500 years.” Her research on tree rings shows that California has not experienced such an extreme drought since 1580. “If you go back thousands of years, you see that droughts can go on for years if not decades, and there were some dry periods that lasted over a century, like during the Medieval period and the middle Holocene. The 20th century was unusually mild here, in the sense that the droughts weren’t as severe as in the past. It was a wetter century, and a lot of our development has been based on that.” It’s no wonder, then, that the overall agricultural impact of the drought could reach $1 billion this year, according to the Fresno-based Westlands Water District.

California’s drought woes are part of an on-going 14-year Western U.S. drought that began in 2000, and peaked between 2000 – 2004. A 2012 study titled, Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America, found that the 2000 – 2004 drought was the most severe Western North America event of its kind since the last mega drought over 800 years ago, during the years 1146 – 1151. The paper analyzed the latest generation of climate models used for the 2013 IPCC report, which project that the weather conditions that spawned the 2000 – 2004 drought will be the new normal in the Western U.S. by 2030, and will be considered extremely wet by the year 2100. If these dire predictions of a coming “megadrought” are anywhere close to correct, it will be extremely challenging for the Southwest U.S. to support a growing population in the coming decades.

Megadroughts in the Western U.S. can develop from natural causes, as well, and the current pattern of cooler than average ocean temperatures in the Eastern Pacific and warmer than average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic increase the odds of drought conditions like the ones we have seen during the current megadrought. Edward Cook, director of the Tree Ring Laboratory at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, N.Y., said at a presentation last month at the American Geophysical Union meeting that tree ring data show that the area of the West that was affected by severe drought in the Medieval period was much higher and much longer than the current drought. It is “indeed pretty scary,” Cook said. “One lasted 29 years. One lasted 28 years. They span the entire continental United States.” Two megadroughts in the Sierra Nevada of California lasted between 100 and 200 years. Bobby Magill at Climate Center has more on Dr. Cook’s presentation in a post, Is the West’s Dry Spell Really a Megadrought?

Figure 3. Normalized precipitation over Western North America (five-year mean) from 22 climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, as summarized by Schwalm et al., 2012, Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America. The horizontal line marks the precipitation level of the 2000 – 2004 drought, the worst of the past 800 years. Droughts of this intensity are predicted to be the new normal by 2030, and will be considered an outlier of extreme wetness by 2100. The paper states: “This impending drydown of western North America is consistent with present trends in snowpack decline as well as expected in-creases in aridity and extreme climate events,including drought, and is driven by anthropogenically forced increases in temperature with coincident increases in evapotranspiration and decreases in soil moisture. Although regional precipitation patterns are difficult to forecast, climate models tend to underestimate the extent and severity of drought relative to available observations. As such, actual reductions in precipitation may be greater than shown. Forecasted precipitation patterns are consistent with a probable twenty-first century megadrought.” Image credit: Schwalm et al., 2012, Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America, Nature Geoscience 5, 551-555, Published online 29 JULY 2012, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1529, www.nature.com/naturegeoscience.

Related posts
Unprecedented Cut in Colorado River Flow Ordered, Due to Drought, my August 2013 post.

Lessons from 2012: Droughts, not Hurricanes, are the Greater Danger, my November 2012 post.

How Two Reservoirs Have Become Billboards For What Climate Change Is Doing To The American West, August 12, 2013 climateprogress.org post by Tom Kenworthy.

Scientists Predicted A Decade Ago Arctic Ice Loss Would Worsen Western Droughts. Is That Happening Already?, June 2013 post by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org.

Twenty Cities At Risk of Water Shortages, August 14, 2013 wunderground news post by Nick Wiltgen

‪If There’s Global Warming…Why Is It So Cold?‬
It’s been top-ten coldest January on record in the Upper Midwest, and much colder than average over much of the Eastern U.S. However, the that isn’t the case over other portions of the globe, including the Western U.S. and Alaska. Wunderground’s weather historian Christopher C. Burt analyzes the situation in his latest post, How Cold has this January been in the U.S.? He concludes, “this January’s average temperature nationally has probably been close to normal since the western half of the nation has been almost as much above average as the eastern half was below average. The only region that will most likely have experienced a TOP 10 coldest January will be the Upper Midwest.” In the U.S., only four stations set all-time low minimum temperature records in January, compared to 34 that set all-time high maximum temperature records. I’ve been monitoring global temperatures this month, and it appears likely that January will rank between the 5th and 15th warmest January since record keeping began in 1880. Of particular note were the amazingly warm January temperatures in the Balkans. According to weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera, “over 90% of all stations in the Balkans from Slovenia to Croatia to Bosnia to Serbia To Montenegro to Kosovo etc., have DESTROYED their previous record of warmest January ever (many locations have 100 – 200 years of data.) In many cases the monthly temperatures were 7 – 9°C (13 – 16°F) above average, and the new records were 3 – 4°C above the previous record. This is for THOUSANDS of stations, almost all of them. In Slovenia, for example, Mount Kredarica is the only station in the whole country not to have set its warmest January on record.”

Video 1. ‪If There’s Global Warming … Why Is It So Cold?‬ The latest video from climate videographer Peter Sinclair on the Yale Climate Forum website demonstrates that while it was a very cold January in the Midwest, this has been counterbalanced by record warmth over the Western U.S. and Alaska, caused by an unusually extreme kink in the jet stream.

Links
Another Unexpected Disaster That Was Well Forecast. Based in Atlanta, TWC’s Bryan Norcross concludes that “WARM GROUND + VERY COLD AIR + SNOW + WORKDAY = CHAOS. If the decision-makers understood the formula above, this information should have been sufficient to trigger a proper response.”

Jon Stewart Lays Into Georgia’s Snowpocalypse

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2624

Media SIlence on Environmental Change

How the Media Prevents Meaningful Discussion About the Condition of Our Environment

For a normal human being who understands the value of having clean air and water to consume, clean soil to grow food in, and of living in a habitat that can support life, it is frustrating to watch one environmental calamity occur, after another without ever seeing a mainstream, non-politicized conversation about the condition of our natural world. It seems that merely expressing concern over the direction the environment is going is enough to solicit a number of stigmatized labels, such as hippie, liberal, terrorist, downer, debbie-downer, slacker, tree-hugger, climate changer, Al Gore, global warmer, Agenda 21′er, and so on. There is an extreme cultural bias against environmentalism, from many angles. Environmentalism is not a public priority.

What is at the root of this indifference toward the quality of our natural world? We certainly are a society that is highly preoccupied with security, but, for some reason, when it comes to securing a healthy environment, most of us look the other way, or put these concerns well below others.

THE CONVERSATION

The public conversation on any popular issue in America today is led by a handful of media companies who provide ‘news’ and ‘debate’ on the selected topics of each day. In this way, a narrow and focused message is syndicated across America, and we hear the same news and information repeated, often verbatim, by local, state, and national media. The model of a consolidated media, working for profit, bringing us an endless narrative, is very effective at setting societal priorities, at supporting hidden agendas, and at coloring the truth on any issue.

Lying by omission is one of the most effective ways of hiding the truth. By simply not mentioning an issue, then, effectively, a lie is told that the issue is irrelevant. The total picture of the truth is manipulated in this way by our mainline media, making it unlikely for consumers of media to connect the dots amongst environmental issues, linking their long term fall out to developments in policy and disaster clean up.

By effectively omitting critical issues from the ongoing public conversation, this most important subject is rendered unimportant, or the illusion is created that the environment is under responsible stewardship by the proper authorities. The media plays a significant role in shaping how this nation reacts to environmental catastrophes, and time and again the tactic of lying by omission is used against us to obfuscate the truth about what is happening to our natural world.

WHO STANDS TO GAIN?

Over the course of the last century our society has been heavily influenced to value a consumer oriented way of life over traditional ways of living. Our economy is driven by consumption, and the mainline media reinforces our dependence on and desire for this lifestyle by continuously reiterating the enjoyment and value to be had in acquiring more things. If the public were to lose interest in this lifestyle, this economy would collapse entirely.

As the primary sales agent of our consumeristic cultural paradigm, the media absolutely must refrain from demonstrating how our consumer based lifestyle lays waste to the earth, jeopardizing health and wellness for all. Our mainline media must do their best to camouflage this crisis in order to keep itself alive, in order to keep it’s coiffeurs filled, and in order to keep all those involved employed. A catch-22 of Biblical proportions.

For this, the prevailing manner of reporting on the environment issues has become to ignore all stories about the environment except the ones too big not to mention, then to brush those off the radar with haste. Once an environmental story is gone from the front page it is rarely ever mentioned again, even though the effects of environmental catastrophes are felt much later than the actual event.

WHAT DOTS?

The point of omitting environmental issues from the discussion is to inhibit people from connecting the dots on how the pattern of serious environmental destruction is directly related to the way of life being touted by the media. If people connect the dots, they may see how participation in the economy and this way of life is participation in ecocide, and thus, suicide. Upon realizing this, they may go further to make the connection that life is more important than the quest for wealth and materialism, and change their personal behavior to support the things which support life, rather than supporting the things which extract, pollute, and rape this wonderful earth.

If too many people change their behavior, then this economic system will collapse.

At present there are a number of extremely critical environmental issues that are going largely unaddressed by our policy makers and so-called leaders. As a service to the conversation about the quality of our world and the quality of our health, here is a list of the top 20 environmental issues routinely omitted by the mainstream media.

  1. Fukushima
  2. The Gulf of Mexico Core Exit Oil Spill
  3. Tar Sands Athabasca
  4. Appalachian Mountain Top Removal
  5. Depleted Uranium
  6. Nuclear Energy and Spent Nuclear Fuel
  7. Pipeline Spills
  8. Fracking
  9. Air Pollution
  10. Genetic Modification of Plants and Animals
  11. Soil Depletion and Erosion From Mass Agriculture
  12. Electro-Magenetic Pollution
  13. Widespread Pollution of the Oceans
  14. Sea-life Die Off and the Collapse of Ocean Fish Colonies
  15. Rainforest Destruction for Industrial Agriculture and Oil Exploration
  16. Water Pollution
  17. Widespread Overuse of Pesticides and Herbicides
  18. Trash and Landfills
  19. Animal Poaching and Species Extinction
  20. Geo-Engineering and Chemtrails

Perhaps seeing all this in one place will help support the overall picture of where our lives are going if we continue to sideline and ridicule any meaningful public discussion about how our lifestyles support the destruction of the natural world. Without pigeon holing concerned people into labels like, commie, collectivist, dirt worshipper, liberal, eco-terrorist, or whatever. against our long term interests of having a planet that can sustain and and is worth living on.

CONCLUSION

Connecting the dots on these issues raises the question of how these issues are inter-connected. The continuous thread that runs through each of these calamities is an industrial hubris that seeks, first and foremost, ever-increasing profit. This is supported by governments, both corrupt and manipulated by economic hitmen. Behind this lies the arrogant human assumption that human beings are somehow separate from the earth and it’s creatures, and somehow in control of the natural forces of the world.

Whether you want to call it global warming, climate change, industrial accidents, unfortunate events, mismanagement, or what have you, the fact remains that our natural world is becoming increasingly toxic and the future for our children looks rather dim without a mass awakening and acceptance of this issue as a top social priority. As the natural world continues to degrade, it will eventually become impossible for the media and industry to hide the extent of the damage that is being done, no matter what illusions we are spoonfed.

Simple, common-sense environmentalism shouldn’t be reserved for political hacks like Al Gore or globalist supporters of Agenda 21. You shouldn’t have to be a carbon credit trader to be concerned about the radiation leak at Fukushima, and you don’t have to be a Rothschild to understand that oil in the backyard isn’t good for the family dog.

As individuals it is up to each of us to re-think our dependance on consumer culture and reinvent how we relate to the natural world. For inspiration on this, please view this thought-provoking talk by Sebastião Salgado.

from:    http://themindunleashed.org/2014/01/media-prevents-meaningful-discussion-condition-environment.html