Category Archives: Earth Stuff

News of Earth Changes, climate shifts, weather anomalies, volcanoes, etc

Dr. Masters’ Tropical Watch

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Norbert Hits Category 3; Three Minor Atlantic Threat Areas to Watch

By: Jeff Masters , 4:13 PM GMT on September 06, 2014

Hurricane Norbert put on an unexpected burst of rapid intensification overnight, topping out as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds at 5 am EDT Saturday. Norbert continues to chug parallel and just offshore from the coast of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds to the coast. Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed that Norbert had a small eye and some very impressive eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. However, the storm is starting to weaken, thanks to cooler ocean temperatures near 27°C (81 °F), and drier air. The models all show the core of the hurricane remaining just offshore as it moves northwest parallel to the Baja Peninsula over the next three days, so heavy rains of 3 – 6″ causing flash flooding will be the primary threat from Norbert to Baja. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the hurricane is pulling moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly and from the tropical Eastern Pacific northwards into Northern Mexico and the Southern Arizona, and this moisture will be capable of causing flooding rains in those regions.

Norbert’s intensification into a Category 3 storm gives the Eastern Pacific seven major hurricanes so far this year. With the season typically only 2/3 over by September 9, we have a decent chance of tying or beating the record of ten intense hurricanes in a season, set in 1992 (this tally includes hurricanes in the Central Pacific.) The 2014 tally for the Eastern Pacific currently stands at 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year. The records for total number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes were all set in 1992, with 28 named storms, 16 hurricanes, and 10 intense hurricanes (with the Central Pacific tallies included.)


Figure 1. Hurricane Norbert near Mexico’s Baja Peninsula at 10:30 am EDT September 6, 2014. At the time, Norbert was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Predicted seven-day precipitation amounts for the period ending on Saturday, September 13 show a large area of 3+ inches are expected over Southeast U.S., thanks to a weak tropical disturbance. A region of 2+” of rain is expected over Southern Arizona due to the flow of moist air northwards caused by Hurricane Norbert’s circulation. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Southeast U.S. disturbance bringing heavy rains
A weak area of low pressure near the coast of Georgia is bringing heavy rain showers to the Southeast U.S. coast and adjacent waters, but this this activity is very disorganized. The disturbance will bring heavy rains in excess of three inches to the coast over the next few days as the low drifts northeastward. After that time, the low will likely merge with a frontal zone over the ocean and head out to sea. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 0% and 10%, respectively.

Tropical Wave 90L
A tropical wave (90L) located a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west to west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images show 90L has plenty of spin, but little heavy thunderstorm activity. Though Sea Surface Temperatures are fairly warm, 27.5°C (82°F), and wind shear is low, 90L is embedded in a very dry air mass that is expected to get dryer as the storm progresses westwards. None of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predicts development of 90L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 10%. The wave should arrive in the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday night.

New African Tropical Wave
Following on the heels of 90L will be a new tropical wave that is expected to push off the coast of Africa on Sunday night or Monday morning, bringing heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Cape Verde Islands on Monday and Tuesday. All three of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation show development of the new wave by Wednesday. The new wave will see similar conditions to 90L, though, and will struggle with dry air and moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively. The wave should take a more northwesterly track then 90L, and not threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2788

Sub-Oceanic Volcano Found

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Massive Extinct Volcano Discovered Beneath Pacific Ocean

Laura Geggel, Staff Writer   |   September 03, 2014
newly discovered Pacific Ocean seamount.
  The newly discovered seamount rises up some 3,600 feet (1,100 meters) from the seafloor near the Johnston Atoll, at a depth of about 16,730 feet (5,100 m) under the Pacific Ocean.
Credit: Image courtesy of the Center for Coastal and Ocean Mapping/Joint Hydrographic Center.

Lurking some 3.2 miles (5.1 kilometers) beneath the Pacific Ocean, a massive mountain rises up from the seafloor, say scientists who discovered the seamount using sonar technology.

The seamount is about two-thirds of a mile high (1.1 kilometers), researchers said. Seamounts, rocky leftovers from extinct, underwater volcanoes, are found on ocean floors around the world. The newly discovered seamount is about 186 miles (300 km) southeast of Jarvis Island, an uninhabited island in a relatively unexplored part of the South Pacific Ocean, experts said.

“These seamounts are very common, but we don’t know about them, because most of the places that we go out and map have never been mapped before,” James Gardner, a University of New Hampshire research professor who works at the university’s NOAA Center for Coastal and Ocean Mapping/Joint Hydrographic Center, said in a statement.

Gardner’s team found the seamount on Aug. 13, less than five days into an expedition to map the outer limits of the U.S. continental shelf. They used a 12-kHzmultibeam echo sounder, which uses sonar to detect contours on the ocean floor. Late that night, the seamount appeared “out of the blue,” Gardner said in the statement.

The multibeam echo sounder gave the researchers an advantage over other mapping methods. Low-resolution satellite data have revealed images for most of the earth’s seafloor, but the technique is not advanced enough to capture most seamounts.

“Satellites just can’t see these features and we can,” Gardner said.

The researchers have yet to explore the effects of the as-yet-unnamed seamount on the surrounding environment, but these underwater mountains often host diverse marine life, such as commercially important fish species, research finds. However, the newly found seamount is too deep underwater to provide a home for rich fisheries, he said.

Still, because the seamount is so far underwater it won’t be a navigational hazard. The United States has jurisdiction over the volcanic seamount and the waters above it, Gardner added.

“It’s probably 100 million years old,” Gardner said, “and it might have something in it we may be interested in 100 years from now.”

The group made its discovery aboard the R/V Kilo Moana, a 186-foot (57 meter) vessel owned by the U.S. Navy and operated by the University of Hawaii Marine Center.

from:    http://www.livescience.com/47670-pacific-seamount-discovered.html

Hawaii, Iceland Volcanic activity

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Eruption Update: New Fissure Eruption Starts Closer to Vatnajökull in Iceland, Kilauea Lava Flow Threatens Homes

Lava fountaining in the second fissures in the Holuhraun lava field, Iceland, seen on September 4, 2014. Photo by Image from Jonni Productions video.

Two updates for today, dominated by action at the two most famous hotspots on the planet:

Iceland

A new fissure started erupting this morning to the south of the current activity in the Holuhraun lava fields in Iceland. These two new fissures are closer to the Vatnajökull ice cap (just 2 km north of its edge), so concern is growing larger than the eruption will start happening subglacially, potentially causing jökulhlaups (glacial outburst floods) as the lava erupts under the ice. The Icelandic Meteorological Office is also reporting that the cauldron (depression) in Dyngjujökull, the northern part of the ice cap, is getting larger and more pronounced, both of which are signs that more heat is being felt at the bottom of the ice (possibly caused by eruptions under the ~300-350 meters of ice). Check out these images of the cauldron on the ice surface. The most serious ramification is the potential for more explosive style of eruption if water can mix with the lava.

So far, the vigor of the eruption at the new fissures is lower than the other active fissures, where lava fountains (see above) are reaching over 100 meters into the air. Be sure to check out these great images of the lava fountaining, spatter cones and lava flows of the larger fissure field. The older lava flow field now covers just over 10 square kilometers. Watch this video to see what it’s like to get up close and personal with the lava flows right now.

 

The steam plume from the eruption is reaching 4.5 km (15,000 feet) and the sulfur dioxide plume is beginning to spread beyond the region right around Iceland. Changes in the weather patterns around the island suggest that the plume may spread enough to reach Europe, although the only possible ramifications of that might be some sulfur odor across the British Isles.

Hawai’i

Lava flows approaching KKK Homesteads on Kilauea's slopes, seen on September 3, 2014. Photo by Hawaii Volcano Observatory / USGS.

Meanwhile, in Hawai’i, lava flows are threatening homes on the slopes of Kilauea (see above). The USGS has raised the alert status at Kilauea to its highest – Warning – after lava flows exploiting a ground crack moved downslope and re-emerged near the Kaohe Homesteads. This lava flow was able to move so much further downslope thanks to the insulating nature of the ground crack, keeping the lava hot enough to flow longer and faster. At the current rates of flow, the lava could reach the Homesteads in 5-7 days if it continues to exploit the ground cracks. Currently, the lava flows are burning their way through the forested lands on the flank of Kilauea. The Hawaii Volcano Observatory has an excellent collection of images of the lava flows, showing how it is advancing towards the homesteads. Although these lava flows aren’t a hazard for people as such, previous lava flows have destroyed entire communities on the slopes of the volcano.

from:    http://www.wired.com/2014/09/eruption-update-new-fissure-eruption-starts-closer-to-vatnajokull-in-iceland-kilauea-lava-flow-threatens-homes/#more-1528801

Rainforest Fungus Eats Polyurethane

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Fungus Discovered in Rainforest Capable Of Eating Plastic Pollution

http://themindunleashed.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/garbage-patch2.jpg

One of the biggest problems facing the earth, plastic pollution, could soon meet its match if students at Yale University are able to breed a recently discovered plastic-eating fungus on a large scale.

Plastic pollution, exemplified by the giant floating island of trash the size of Texas in the Pacific ocean, is highly detrimental to the world’s ecosystem because it breaks down extremely slow. In fact, according to the National Center for Biotechnology Information, plastic doesn’t actually biodegrade:

“Plastics do not biodegrade, although, under the influence of solar UV radiations, plastics do degrade and fragment into small particles, termed microplastics.”

This presents humans with a challenge that must soon be met, considering much of our plastic trash ends up in the ocean where it breaks down into toxic microplastics, winding up in sea life. Not only is this dangerous to the sea life, but it’s also dangerous to people because we end up consuming these very fish which we are poisoning with our trash.

Many groups and organizations have been formed to clean up plastic that ends up washing ashore on our beaches, but the vast majority of plastic pollution ends up in the ocean. The planet has a growing addiction to cheap and industrious plastic, increasing in use exponentially every year with no end in sight.

This is why the discovery of plastic-eating fungus is so exciting. According to Inhabitat,

On an expedition to the rainforest of Ecuador, students from Yale’s Department of Molecular Biophysics and Biochemistry discovered a previously unknown fungus that has a healthy appetite for polyurethane. According to Fast Company, the fungus is the first one that is known to survive on polyurethane alone, and it can do so in an anaerobic (oxygen-free) environment, which suggests that it could be used at the bottom of landfills.

The discovery was published in the scientific journal Applied and Environmental Microbiology. Researchers were also able to isolate the enzyme responsible for decomposing the plastic.

It isn’t exactly clear how this fungus will be implemented in bioremediation, but one can picture floating plastic islands covered in mushrooms which will eat the entire trash pile then sink into the ocean.

It’s also important to wean ourselves away from petroleum based plastics because they require many resources just to manufacture, and pollution doesn’t start or end with the trash in the gutter. Many other sustainable options are available which could used instead, like hemp based or other plant based plastics.

Image credit: pmf.sc.gov.br

from:    http://themindunleashed.org/2014/08/fungus-discovered-rainforest-capable-eating-plastic-pollution.html

Volcanic Activity: Iceland & PNG

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Updates on Eruptions in Iceland and Rabaul

The ~0.6 km fissure eruption from the Holuhraun lava fields in Iceland. Small lava flows (dark black in foreground only) and degassing (white steam and volcanic plumes) show the extent of last night's eruption. Image: Almannavarnir Iceland / Twitter.

Yesterday we had two eruptions grab everyone’s attention – one from the area that has had everyone’s attention between Iceland’s Bárðarbunga and Askja in the Holuhraun lava field and one unexpected eruption from the Tavurvur cone in the Rabaul Caldera of Papua New Guinea.

The Icelandic eruption that everyone has been waiting for ended up being small, lasting ~3-4 hours and producing lava flows and spatter ramparts. Video of this morning’s flyover show a linear fissure about 0.6 km long (see above) that is still degassing strongly, but no lava is currently erupting. A shot of the eruption site (see above) released today clearly shows the short lava flow tongues that issued from the fissure during the brief eruption. Right now, there is no threat at all to aviation and even during the height of the eruption last night, the explosivity was low. The IMO has lowered the aviation alert level back to orange and briefly raising it to red during the eruption last night. The latest statement from the IMO says that they are still unsure how the eruption may proceed: this might be it or new fissures may open in the area as more magma reaches the surface.

The same can’t be said for the ongoing eruption from the Rabaul caldera, an eruption that was not expected. The Tavurvur cone has been producing impressive explosive eruptions that has caused some international flights to alter their flightpaths to avoid the copious ash. Unlike the Icelandic eruption, this eruption is occurring right next to a city of nearly 20,000 people, so the threat to life and property is much higher. In fact, the 1994 eruption of Rabaul came close to destroying the city, so this sort of intense eruption from Tavurvur can have very real consequences for the people living near the volcano – and the current activity has led to evacuations of some of the villages nearby. You can check out a brief video of the intense strombolian eruption from yesterday while galleries of the eruption show the impressive ash plume from the eruption that spread mostly to the southwest and southeast.

The Rabaul eruption is probably the one to watch most closely because the Rabaul caldera has a history of explosive eruptions and is much closer to populated area. Right now, the Icelandic eruption is about a benign as an eruption can be: it is in a remote area and has been lava flows with some lava fountains. The Icelandic events have definitely captured the public’s imagination, but in terms of real world volcanic hazards, Rabaul is the real threat.

from:    http://www.wired.com/2014/08/updates-on-eruptions-in-iceland-and-rabaul/#more-1498261

Earthquake – Southern Greece

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Strong deep earthquake below the sea in Southern Greece (West of Ademas)

Last update: August 29, 2014 at 5:38 am by By

 

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Update : Due to the deep hypocenter, this earthquake will have been felt by millions of people who, if the data are right, will all of them have felt a weak or max. light shaking

Update : ER does not expect damage because of this earthquake. 2 main reasons for this : a) a deep hypocenter which means that strong shaking waves will  be weaker when they arrive at the surface and b) the epicenter below the sea floor (below land is always more dangerous)

Screen Shot 2014-08-29 at 06.06.34

60km (37mi) W of Adamas, Greece
121km (75mi) S of Vari, Greece
122km (76mi) S of Voula, Greece
123km (76mi) S of Kalyvia Thorikou, Greece
137km (85mi) S of Athens, Greece

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 5.8

Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2014-08-29 06:45:07

from>    http://earthquake-report.com/2014/08/29/strong-earthquake-southern-greece-on-august-29-2014/

8/24 Peru Quake Update

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Massive earthquake at intermediate depth in Peru – 1 collapsed home, multiple buildings damaged.

Last update: August 25, 2014 at 4:29 am by By

This article is also written by Carlos Robles and James Daniell.
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Update 09:58 UTC: INDECI has updated damage and injury reports:
Ica Region:
-Two non-life threatening injuries.
Ayacucho Region
Lucanas Province:
-One collapsed home in Amoca.
-10 damaged homes in Sanco.
– 3 damaged schools (2 in Sancos and 1 in Chaviña).
– 1 damaged clinic in Sancos.
– 1 damaged temple in Chaviña.
Paranicochas Province:
– 4 damaged homes in Coracora.

-Two small landslides have been reported so far, one in the route Los Libertadores – Huancavelica and one in Panamericana Sur – Arequipa.

Update 03:57 UTC: INDECI has released initial values from the earthquake, with the Seismological Service of Peru having given a Ml6.6 earthquake at 106km depth. 1 house was destroyed in Amoca, Lucanas. 4 houses were damaged in Cora Cora. 1 temple and 1 school were also slightly damaged in Chavina.

Update 00:18 UTC: Very great news, USGS has just decreased the magnitude to 6.9 and changed the depth from 59km to 100km, a shallower quake has a lot more potential to create damage.

Update 00:01 UTC: Radio RPP is reporting damaged homes in Coracora.

Update 23:57 UTC: The quake was widely felt in a very big area and in a lot of big cities including Lima, the capital of Peru, this big cities should only have felt a slight shaking for a prolonged time and should only have minimal damage. Villages closer to the epicenter should have taken all the impact, but news from those areas will take time to travel.

Update 23:48 UTC : Very dangerous earthquake in a sparsely populated area of Peru

Screen Shot 2014-08-25 at 01.43.04 Screen Shot 2014-08-25 at 01.45.40 Screen Shot 2014-08-25 at 01.45.50

42km (26mi) ENE of Tambo, Peru
61km (38mi) E of Puquio, Peru
108km (67mi) S of Andahuaylas, Peru
131km (81mi) SW of Abancay, Peru
471km (293mi) SE of Lima, Peru

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 6.8

Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2014-08-24 18:21:41

GMT/UTC Time : 2014-08-24 23:21:41

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2014/08/24/very-strong-earthquake-coracora-peru-on-august-24-2014/

Steve Gregory on Current Tropical Conditions

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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Northbound – ‘97L’ Needs Monitoring – Strong System over Africa

By: SteveGregory , 4:01 PM GMT on August 26, 2014

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL

CRISTOBAL intensified into a hurricane early last night as wind shear eased a bit, and outflow improved somewhat to the North and south. Shear remains relatively high near 20Kts, and with no improvement in the outflow pattern above the storm expected and the proximity to drier to its west – significant intensification appears unlikely as the 988mb storm moves Northward during the next 2 days along the western periphery of the sub-tropical (Bermuda) High centered in the central Atlantic. All the models are now in excellent agreement on both the track and intensity forecast for CRISTOBAL, and except for large waves and localized rip currents along the east coast – CRISTOBAL will have no impact on the US mainland

INVEST 97L POSES A POTENTIAL THREAT OF DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND

Although NHC dropped 97L overnight, this system is now BACK on the NHC home page chart, most likely due to several global models now forecasting it to develop this weekend as it approaches the Leeward Islands – with the GFS and a few other models tracking it as a cyclone into the southeast coast of the US mainland late next week. Because NHC ‘dropped’ the system over night, none of the specialized hurricane models we executed during the 12Z cycle run. However, the models will almost certainly be initialized for the 18Z cycle run later today. That said – the system is currently surrounded by dry and somewhat stable air with no significant outflow signature seen on SAT imagery at this time; so development, if any, will be quite slow for the next 72 hours.

STRONG DISTURBANCE STILL WESTBOUND OVER AFRICA

Finally, the strongest African tropical disturbance of the season is now located over west-central Africa with a long history of deep convection and a well established rotation in low to mid levels. The disturbance is now moving slowly westward, and is expected to emerge off the west African coast this weekend. Some model projections forecast this system to gradually intensify next week – but also put it on a more Northwesterly track next week – implying this system will start heading out to sea by later next week.

Fig 1: Early morning VIS imagery shows the center of CRISTOBAL on the NW side of deep convection moving Northward at about 5Kts (based on the last 6 hours of RECON/SAT image tracking). The overall satellite signature is highly unusual for a tropical cyclone, especially of hurricane intensity – with the system appearing to be along the southern edge of a mid-latitude frontal boundary. In some respects, that is exactly what has occurred over the last 24 hours, with the southward plunge of well defined dry air surge to the immediate west of the cyclone, leading to a ‘linear’ type orientation of convection extending from well north of CRISTOBAL southward to the storm itself. There is a small possibility that this ‘dynamic’ boundary actually helped intensify the cyclone, despite the moderate shear and dry air that is just west of the storms core circulation. Normally, dry air this close to a relatively weak and sheared system like we had would weaken or totally halt intensification – but in this case (the first I’ve ever seen) – the opposite occurred. It’s worth noting that the dry air surge extended into the northern GOM as well – triggering a line of strong convection there.

Fig 2: The above overview of the tropical Atlantic shows a significant tropical wave/disturbance that was (and now again, is) 97L approaching 50W, and is still westbound at ~16Kts. Dry air is to the north and northwest of the system does not appear to be infiltrating the central area of what isolated convection there is. However, the system still remains in a less than favorable area of somewhat stable air – with no upper level wind support. As the system approaches the far eastern CARIB late this week, the environment should become somewhat more favorable for development.

Fig 3: Enhanced IR imagery over Africa earlier this morning highlights the very strong system in west-central Africa. This system had been moving W/SW for the last 36 hours – but has slowed its forward motion somewhat, and is expected to move on a West/Northwest (290°) during the next few days.

Fig 4: The above image over Africa includes satellite derived winds – and show a well established cyclonic flow around the major system of interest – just as it had for the last 2 days

Fig 5: The global models like the NAVY GEM above – and the GFS & CMC forecasts (not shown) all forecast the system to slowly intensify next week, with the GFS then carrying the system into the SE U.S. coast as a cyclone. Clearly, this system needs close monitoring.

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/comment.html?entrynum=220

Dr. Masters on Tropical Storms

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Cristobal a Hurricane; Little Change to 97L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2014

It doesn’t look much like hurricane, but the Hurricane Hunters measured surface winds around 75 mph on Monday evening and Tuesday morning in Hurricane Cristobal, making it the third hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. These missions proved the value of hurricane hunter flights, since there is no way that we would have known Cristobal was a hurricane based on satellite data. The storm is stretched out in a long line of heavy thunderstorms, has no eye or low-level spiral bands, and is giving early August’s Hurricane Bertha some stiff competition for ugliest Atlantic hurricane of the century. Along with Hurricane Arthur and Hurricane Bertha, Cristobal gives us three Atlantic hurricanes so far this year, exceeding the entire 2013 Atlantic hurricane season total. The second (and final) hurricane of the 2013 season (Ingrid) did not arrive until September 14. On average, the third hurricane of the Atlantic season arrives on September 9, and the third named storm of the year on August 13. The last time the first three named storms in the Atlantic became hurricanes was in 1983, when Alicia, Barry and Chantal all became hurricanes (if we exclude 1992, when an unnamed subtropical storm formed prior to the arrival of Hurricanes Andrew, Bonnie, and Charley.) Cristobal continues to dump heavy rains over the Central and Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands as the storm heads northeastwards out to sea. Satellite loops show that Cristobal is struggling with wind shear, with a center of circulation partially exposed to view, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south and east sides of the center. The only land area at risk from Cristobal is Bermuda, and the 5 am EDT Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave that island a 27% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph. The GOES-14 satellite is in rapid-scan mode over Cristobal on Tuesday, and you can access an impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of the storm from the NOAA/RAMMB website.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image showing Tropical Storm Cristobal’s intense thunderstorms stretching from the Southeast Bahamas to Bermuda at 2 pm EDT on August 25, 2014. At the time, Cristobal had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Little change to 97L headed towards the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) was near 13°N, 47°W on Tuesday morning, about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, and was headed west to west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has changed little since Monday, and has a modest amount of spin but only a small amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 97L is located in a dry environment, which is keeping development slow. Wind shear was a moderate 10 – 20 knots, which should allow some slow development. Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27.5°C, which is warm enough to allow some slow development. The wave should arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Friday and be near Puerto Rico on Saturday, according to the Tuesday morning runs of the GFS model. None of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predict 97L will develop over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 20%, respectively. These odds are 10% lower than their previous advisory, and NHC has stopped running their suite of models on 97L.

New tropical wave coming off coast of Africa this weekend
A large and powerful tropical wave will move off the coast of Africa on Friday evening, and the GFS model has been very aggressive in recent runs about developing this wave into a tropical storm within a day of its emergence. The other reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis, the European and UKMET models, have not been developing this wave right away. Residents of the Cape Verde Islands should anticipate the possibility of heavy rain and strong winds on Saturday as the wave moves west at 10 – 15 mph across the islands. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively.

The Gulf of Mexico is worth watching
In the Gulf of Mexico, heavy thunderstorm activity has diminished since Monday along a weak cold front stretching from South Florida to the Louisiana coastal waters. Some models show a weak area of low pressure developing along this front and moving westwards over Texas by Friday, and we should keep an eye on this region for development.


Figure 2. MODIS true-color image of Hurricane Marie in the Eastern Pacific taken at approximately 18:15 UTC (2:15 pm EDT) on August 25, 2014. At the time, Marie was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Powerful Hurricane Marie generating huge waves in Eastern Pacific
The Eastern Pacific’s Hurricane Marie had weakened to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds on Tuesday morning, but was still generating huge swells that were bringing large waves to the coasts of Southern California and Mexico’s Baja Peninsula. At 5 am EDT on Tuesday, Marie’s tropical storm-force winds covered a huge area of ocean, up to 275 miles from the center, and 12-foot high seas extended up to 550 miles from the center. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Los Angeles, where waves of 10 – 15 feet will potentially cause structural damage to piers and beachside property as well as significant beach erosion. The powerful surf will be accompanied by strong rip currents and long-shore currents, making for very hazardous swimming and surfing conditions through Thursday. Satellite loops on Tuesday morning showed a steady degradation of Marie’s cloud pattern, with the eyewall cloud tops warming and the areal coverage of the strongest thunderstorms decreasing. The storm is headed to the northwest over cooler waters and into drier air, and will not affect any land areas.

You can see a spectacular loop of infrared satellite images of Marie as it intensified into a Category 5 storm on Sunday at the CIMSS University of Wisconsin.

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2776

Napa Earthquake 8/24

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Extremely dangerous earthquake close to the Napa Valley, California – no official report of injuries so far but a lot of damage

Last update: August 24, 2014 at 2:09 pm by By

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Update 13:57 UTC : A typical strike-slip earthquake with a mainly horizontal movement OR in otrher words the most dangerous earthquake type in the world. Still no official reports about injured people. A lot of rumours though.

Screen Shot 2014-08-24 at 15.56.31

Update 13:27 UTC : Damage we can expect at a place like Napa Valley. What a terrible waste of energy for the wine makers. Hopefulkly they are well insured

Damage to the wineries must be enormous - This is the cellar of Silver Oak in Napa Valley

Update 13:24 UTC : No official reports of injuries so far (let’s call this a miracle)

Update 13:18 UTC : 68,742 customers still without power across California; majority affected are in Napa and Sonoma counties

Update 13:13 UTC : Significant damage to downtown Napa, ordering rescue teams, people trapped in homes
The Napa City council reports that some streets in downtown Napa, Calif., are being closed following major damage to buildings

Twitter damage image from downtown Napa

Update 11:45 UTC : Twitter user Mike Smith just wrote : Listening to a Napa County scanner stream. Sounds like a lot of injuries and damage in the Napa/Sonoma area.

Update 11:38 UTC : A building partly collapsed in Napa (see image below). ER fears that there are more cases like this one. Hard to say how many people might be injured but we are sure that there wil be people injured during this quake. Recent houses will be OK but alder not-refitted houses might be of risk.

Twitter image of a partly collapsed house in Napa

Update 11:29 UTC : California Highway Patrol checking crossings and bridges for obvious signs of structural integrity after quake. For our readers from elsewhere in the world : The earthquake happened in the middle of the night and rescue services have to operate in the dark. millions of people have been awakened from the shaking of this earthquake

Twitter image from the Walmart in Napa

Update 11:23 UTC : There is a population of 280000 people in a radius of 20 km around the epicenter. Power outages are reported in North Bay area of San Francisco as well as Sonoma, Napa counties

Update 11:13 UTC : Until now much reports of shaken interiors from Napa and the Napa valley area

Twitter image from a house in Napa

Update 11:08 UTC : People in Napa Valley are frightened and call it the biggest ever. The image below is from a house in Napa. San Francisco no reports of damage so far.
Ar ER we call a radius of 10 km around the epicenter as extremely dangerous and a radius of 30 km as dangerous for damage/injuries

Twitter image from Napa Valley

Update 11:01 UTC : ER calls this earthquake extremely dangerous for serious damage and even injuries.

Update 10:59 UTC : We apologise for not being able to serve all our readers as the servers can only serve a limited number of people (thousands at a time) but demand is simply too high to cope

Screen Shot 2014-08-24 at 12.43.24

  1. 6km (4mi) NW of American Canyon, California
  2. 9km (6mi) SSW of Napa, California
  3. 13km (8mi) NNW of Vallejo, California
  4. 14km (9mi) SE of Sonoma, California
  5. 82km (51mi) WSW of Sacramento, California

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 6

Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2014-08-24 03:20:44

GMT/UTC Time : 2014-08-24 10:20:44

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2014/08/24/strong-earthquake-american-canyon-california-on-august-24-2014/