Central Indonesian Volcano Eruption

Mount Lokon Volcano Erupts In Central Indonesia, No Injuries Reported

JAKARTA, Indonesia — A volcano in central Indonesia has erupted, spewing hot smoke and ash thousands of feet into the air. There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage.

Mount Lokon, located on northern Sulawesi island, had been dormant for years before rumbling back to life several months ago.

Surono, a government volcanologist who uses only one name, says it unleashed two strong eruptions at 5:19 p.m. and 5:30 p.m. on Wednesday.

They were preceded by several smaller blasts hours earlier.

Mount Lokon is one of about 129 active volcanoes in Indonesia, a vast archipelago of 240 million people. Its last major eruption in 1991 killed a Swiss hiker and forced thousands of people to flee their homes.

from:   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/26/mount-lokon-volcano-erupts-indonesia_n_1032303.html.

Turkey Aftershocks

New powerful and dangerous aftershock creates panic in Van and Ercis, Eastern Turkey

Last update: October 25, 2011 at 5:16 pm by By 

Earthquake overview :  On 17:55 on October 25,2011 ,  a powerful 5.7 magnitude earthquake struck the already severely damaged Van – Ercis area.

Shaking map of the M 5.7 Van Ercis aftershock – image courtesy USGS

Update : At least one building collapsed because of this new aftershock

Update : The Search and rescue operations have been suspended for a while because of the safety of the SAR personnel

Update :   People in Van panicked seriously with this new jolt

Update :  Due to the constant aftershocks, people are trying to avoid being at the inside of houses and buildings. They know very well that very powerful aftershocks are part of a major earthquake.

Update : 70,000 people will have experienced a strong MMI VI shaking

Update : Data from the other seismological agencies :
EMSC :  5.5 @ 10 km
GFZ :  5.5 @ 10 km
AFAD : 5.5 @ 18.28 km
The impact of this aftershock maybe a little weaker because all the other agencies are measuring a 5.5 magnitude.

to read more, and for updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/10/25/new-powerful-and-dangerous-aftershock-creates-panic-in-van-and-ercis-eastern-turkey/

ROSAT — Down, but Missing

Defunct German Satellite Hits Earth in Fiery Death Dive

Denise Chow, SPACE.com Staff Writer
Date: 23 October 2011 Time: 03:45 AM ET
ROSAT satellite

 

This still from an animation by Analytical Graphics, Inc., depicts the re-entry of Germany’s defunct ROSAT satellite in October 2011.
CREDIT: Analytical Graphics, Inc.

This story was updated at 11:18 p.m. ET.

An old German satellite plunged to Earth today (Oct. 22) after languishing in a dead orbit for more than a decade, but officials do not yet know where it fell.

The 2.7-ton Roentgen Satellite, or ROSAT, slammed into Earth’s atmosphere sometime between 9:45 p.m. EDT (0145 GMT Sunday) and 10:15 p.m. EDT (0215 GMT Sunday), according to officials at the German Aerospace Center.

“There is currently no confirmation if pieces of debris have reached Earth’s surface,” German aerospace officials said in a statement.

While the 21-year-old satellite broke apart as it re-entered Earth’s atmosphere, German aerospace officials estimated that up to 30 pieces totaling 1.9 tons (1.7 metric tons), consisting mostly of the observatory’s heat-resistant mirrors and ceramic parts, could survive the fiery trip and reach the surface of the planet.

Based on ROSAT’s orbital path, these fragments could be scattered along a swath of the planet about 50 miles (80 kilometers) wide, German aerospace officials have said.

The satellite, which weighs 5,348 pounds (2,426 kilograms), was launched into orbit in June 1990 to study X-ray radiation from stars, comets, supernovas, nebulas and black holes, among other things. The satellite was originally designed for an 18-month mission, but it far outlived its projected lifespan. [Photos of Doomed ROSAT Satellite]

In 1998, the ROSAT’s star tracker failed and its X-ray sensors pointed directly at the sun. This caused irreparable damage to the satellite, and it was officially decommissioned in February 1999.

to read more, go to:    http://www.livescience.com/16680-falling-german-satellite-rosat-death-dive.html

Earthquake Predictions 10/26-11/11 fr/Dr. RJ Roberts

Table 48a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

 from October 26-November 9* 2011 (UTC)

REGIONS
USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in
alphabetical order

Forecast
Magnitude
Ranges
& Dates (UTC)

Observed
Maximum
Magnitude
in each region

Accuracy compared to mid range (%)

Observed
Date (UTC) &     Location

Alaska USA
Southern Region
within ≈600 km of a newcenter at Lat 59.6 and Lon -148.9, about 185 km S of Anchorage.
M3.3-M5.3 
expected about Oct 28+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Vancouver Is. and Seattle Regions CANADA/USA
New zone
within ≈525 km radius ofTofino, B.C. at Lat 49.159 and Lon -125.874
M2.6-M4.6 
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
California –Oregon USABorder Region
New zone
Coast & Off Coast
within ≈550 km of a center
at Lat 41.29 Lon -125.95
160 km west of Orick, CA
M3.1-M5.1 
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
   
California  1.
New zone‘Northern and Central CA’
(& Western Nevada)
within ≈450 km radius ofRedwood Valley, CAat Lat 39.265 and Lon -123.204Includes events off the coast near Eureka, CA, in the Triple Junction Region.
**see table footnote
M2.7-M4.7 
expected about Nov 3+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
California  2.
Central, Southern, & Baja California Regions
New zone
Within ≈400 km of Beaumont, CA, at Lat 33.930 and Lon -116.978
**see table footnote
M2.8-M4.8 
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
New Madrid Region
Central USA
New zone
Within ≈550 km of a center at Springfield, Missouri,
Lat 37.214 Lon -93.293 Extends to Central Oklahoma
M2.0-M4.0 
expected about Nov 4+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Hawaii USA
Within 500 km of a center at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5
on the Island of Hawaii
M2.4-M4.4 
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)

     
Caribbean  1.
Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands Region
within ≈225 km of Fajardo, Puerto Rico, at Lat 18.326 & Lon -65.652,
M2.6-M4.6 
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Caribbean  2.
Haiti & Dominican Republic,SE Cuba & Jamaica Region
within ≈600 km of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, at Lat 18.54  & Lon -72.334
M3.4-M5.4 
expected about Nov 1st+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
   
Bucharest
Romania Region
New zone, Europe 
within ≈250 km of Bucharest at Lat 44.44 & Lon 26.093. Includes part of Northern Bulgaria.
M2.8-M4.8 
expected about Nov 3+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Chile         1. 
Northern Region
within≈600 km of a center point 37 km NNE of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
at Lat -23.34 Lon -70.29
(zone revised 3rd July 2011)
M3.8-M5.8 
expected about Nov 5+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
   
Chile         2.Central Region
within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359 
M4.1-M6.1 
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
China*
Within 650 km of Liangshan, Sichuan
at Lat 27.880 Lon 102.264
*Forecasts for China will be for the largest quake expected in the FULL lunar month
(FM + NM periods).

More exact timing cannot be forecast because of inadequate amounts of data readily available from China
No forecast       
Colombia Region
within 600 km of ARUSI, Colombia, Lat 5.583 Lon  -77.484, on the coast
Extends from Panama City region to Western Venezuela
M3.6-M5.6 
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Fiji-Tonga
Region
within ≈500 km of
a center point at
Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4
M4.3-M6.3 
expected about Nov 5+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Greece
New zone
within 300 km of a center point at ITEA, Greece (Lat 38.435 & Lon 22.422)
M3.3-M5.3
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) 
   
Guatemala
Coastal Region
within ≈300 km of a center point at Lat 14.07 Lon -91.92 offshore Guatemala, extending NW to southern Chiapas, Mex., & SE to El Salvador.
M3.3-M5.3
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     

 

El Salvador -Costa Rica Region
includes southeast Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras,
Nicaragua, Costa Rica
within ≈
500 km of a center point at La Trinidad, Nicaragua
(Lat 12.566 Lon -86.178)
Zone revised 19th April.
M4.2-M6.2
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) 
Indonesia  1.Sumatra
Northern Region 

within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra
Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67
M4.3-M6.3
expected about Nov 5+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
   
Indonesia  2.Sumatra 
Southern Region
within ≈350 km of Bengkulu Utara, Southern Sumatra, centered at Lat -2.67 and Lon 101.34 (revised region on 18th April, at 1205 hrs)
M4.3-M6.3
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
   
Indonesia  3.Sunda StraitSouthern Sumatra to Java Region 
includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java,
within ≈450 km from
a center in Sunda Strait
at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762
M3.8-M5.8
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Italy Region
within ≈500 km of a center in the Tyrrhenian Sea at Lat 40.28 Lon 11.88
(now excluding Alpine Northern Italy and Bosnia/ Montenegro Regions across the Adriatic Sea)
M3.1-M5.1
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Japan        1.
Hokkaido Region
& Northernmost Honshu Region 

within ≈500 km from
Yubetsu, Hokkaido
Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62   **see table footnote
M4.6-M6.6
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
   
Japan        2.
Honshu – Northern Region
within ≈500 km of the M9.0 epicenter off East Coast of Honshu
at Lat 38.322 Lon 142.369**see table footnote
M4.1-M6.1
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Japan        3.Honshu – Southern Region
within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya
at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040**see table footnote
M4.5-M6.5
expected about Nov 3+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)

 

     
Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan 
(and part of Southern Xinjiang, China)
New zone
within ≈550 km of a NEW CENTRE near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Tajikistan, 66 km W of Kashgar, Xinjiang, China
at Lat 40.58 Lon 77.286
M4.7-M6.7
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) 
Mexico
Southern Region
within ≈575 km of Tlaxiaco, Oaxaca, Mexico, at Lat 17.280 Lon -97.671
M4.0-M6.0
expected about Oct 31+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
New Britain Region, PNG
within 400 km of a center
at KImbe, NB, at Lat -5.548 Lon 150.140
M4.1-M6.1
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)

 

     
New Zealand
“Northern Region”
within ≈400 km of Taupo, North Island, New Zealand Lat -38.687 Lon 176.07,
including Nelson region and North tip of South Island
**see table footnote
M3.9-M5.9
expected about Oct 30+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
New Zealand
Southern Region
within 500 km from
Christchurch, South Island
Lat -43.527, Lon 172.622
**see table footnote
M3.8-M5.8
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
New Zealand
Lower South Island
New zone
within ≈450 km of Queenstown at Lat -45.030 and Lon 168.66
**see table footnote
M3.9-M5.9
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Pakistan
Islamabad Regionwithin ≈425 km of
Islamabad, Pakistan
(Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07)
(includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)
M3.8-M5.8
expected about Nov 3+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) 
     
Peru Region
North to South
within ≈1000 km of LIMA center, Lat -12.045 and
Lon -77.028
M3.7-M5.7
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Philippines Region
Philippines Region
within ≈600 km
of a center point at LABO,
Lat 14.15 Lon 122.673
M4.0-M6.0
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Samoa/Tonga
within ≈350 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617
M4.3-M6.3
expected about Oct 31+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Solomon Is’-
Bougainville Region
within ≈600 km of center
at Lat -8.41 Lon 158.66
M4.5-M6.5
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Spain and Portugal –
Southern Regions
Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco 
within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567
M2.6-M4.6
expected about Oct 30+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) 
     
Taiwan Region
within 225 km of M7.7 center (1999) at Lat 23.77 and Lon 120.98
M3.5-M5.5
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Region

includes cities like Kathmandu, New Delhi, and Islamabad
New zone
within ≈900 km of a Tibetan center located
at Lat 32.28 Lon 81.98

M3.8-M5.8
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Turkey
within ≈425 km of a center at INSTANBUL, Turkey, at
Lat 41.005 Lon 28.976
(region includes most of Western & Central Turkey, plus regions of Aegean and Black Seas)
M2.8-M4.8
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
   
Vanuatu
New zone
within ≈350 km from a center at Lat -19.182 and Lon 168.270, 160 km S of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu
M4.7-M6.7
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     

 

More on the 7.2 Turkey Earthquake

Understanding the 7.2 magnitude earthquake in East Turkey (October 23, 2011)

Last update: October 24, 2011 at 1:11 am by By 

Tectonic explanation of what happened

Turkey is a tectonically active country that experiences frequent destructive earthquakes. On a broad scale, the seismtectonics of the region near the October 23, 2011 earthquake are controlled by the collision of the Arabian Plate and Eurasian plates; at the latitude of this event, the Arabian plate converges with Eurasia in a northerly direction at a rate of approximately 24 mm/yr. West of the October 23, 2011, earthquake tectonics are dominated by strike-slip faulting on the East (in southern Turkey) and North (in northern Turkey) Anatolian fault zones. These large, translational fault systems extend across much of central and western Turkey and accommodate the western motion of the Anatolian block as it is beingsqueezed by the converging Arabian and Eurasian plates.

Shaking map October 23, 2011 Ercis – Van earthquake

In the area of Lake Van and further east, tectonics are dominated by the Bitlis Suture Zone (in eastern Turkey) and Zagros fold and thrust belt (toward Iran). The October 23, 2011 earthquake occurred in a broad region of convergence beyond the eastern extent of Anatolian strike-slip tectonics. The focal mechanism of today’s earthquake is consistent with oblique-thrust faulting similar to mapped faults in the region.

Seismic Hazard map courtesy USGS

This earthquake is a reminder of the many deadly seismic events that Turkey has suffered in the recent past. The devastating Izmit earthquake of 1999 (M = 7.6) broke a section of the North Anatolian Fault 1000 km to the west of the October 23 event and killed 17,000 people, injured 50,000, and left 500,000 homeless. Approximately 70 km from this earthquake a M7.3 earthquake occurred on November 11, 1976 destroying several villages near the Turkey and Iran border and killing several thousand people.
M7.8 earthquake struck Erzincan in 1939, killing an estimated 33,000 people.

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/10/24/understanding-the-7-2-magnitude-earthquake-in-east-turkey-october-23-2011/

Incoming CME

CME IMPACT: A CME hit Earth’s magnetic field on Oct. 24th at approximately 1800 UT (02:00 pm EDT). Acording to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the impact caused a strong compression of Earth’s magnetic field, allowing solar wind to penetrate all the way down to geosynchronous orbit for a brief period between 19:06 UT and 19:11 UT. Earth-orbiting spacecraft could have been directly exposed to solar wind plasma during that time.

The impact also sparked a geomagnetic storm, underway now. Geir Øye sends this picture from Ørsta, Norway:

“The sky was brightly illuminated by auroras this evening,” says Øye. “The picture, above, was taken at 19.20 UT [just after the most extreme compression of the magnetosphere].”

High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras as Earth’s magnetic field continues to reverberate from the CME impact. The best time to look is usually during the hours around local midnight.

fr/spaceweather.com

Plate Tectonics & Earth’s Magnetic Field

Plate Tectonics May Control Reversals in Earth’s Magnetic Field

ScienceDaily (Oct. 21, 2011) — Earth’s magnetic field has reversed many times at an irregular rate throughout its history. Long periods without reversal have been interspersed with eras of frequent reversals. What is the reason for these reversals and their irregularity? Researchers from CNRS and the Institut de Physique du Globe(*) have shed new light on the issue by demonstrating that, over the last 300 million years, reversal frequency has depended on the distribution of tectonic plates on the surface of the globe. This result does not imply that terrestrial plates themselves trigger the switch over of the magnetic field. Instead, it establishes that although the reversal phenomenon takes place, in fine, within Earth’s liquid core, it is nevertheless sensitive to what happens outside the core and more specifically in Earth’s mantle.

This work is published on 16 October 2011 in Geophysical Research Letters.

Earth’s magnetic field is produced by the flow of liquid iron within its core, three thousand kilometers below our feet. What made researchers think of a link between plate tectonics and the magnetic field? The discovery that convective liquid iron flows play a role in magnetic reversals: experiments and modeling work carried out over the last five years have in fact shown that a reversal occurs when the movements of molten metal are no longer symmetric with respect to the equatorial plane. This “symmetry breaking” could take place progressively, starting in an area located at the core-mantle boundary (the mantle separates Earth’s liquid core from its crust), before spreading to the whole core (made of molten iron).

Extending this research, the authors of the article asked themselves whether some trace of initial symmetry breakings behind the geomagnetic reversals that have marked Earth’s history, could be found in the only records of large-scale geological shifts in our possession, in other words the movements of continents (or plate tectonics). Some 200 million years ago, Pangaea, the name given to the supercontinent that encompassed almost all of Earth’s land masses, began to break up into a multitude of smaller pieces that have shaped Earth as we know it today. By assessing the surface area of continents situated in the Northern hemisphere and those in the Southern hemisphere, the researchers were able to calculate a degree of asymmetry (with respect to the equator) in the distribution of the continents during that period.

In conclusion, the degree of asymmetry has varied at the same rhythm as the magnetic reversal rate (number of reversals per million years). The two curves have evolved in parallel to such an extent that they can almost be superimposed. In other words, the further the centre of gravity of the continents moved away from the equator, the faster the rate of reversals (up to eight per million years for a maximum degree of asymmetry).

What does this suggest about the mechanism behind geomagnetic reversals? The scientists envisage two scenarios. In the first, terrestrial plates could be directly responsible for variations in the frequency of reversals: after plunging into Earth’s crust at subduction zones, the plates could descend until they reach the core, where they could modify the flow of iron. In the second, the movements of the plates may only reflect the mixing of the material taking place in the mantle and particularly at its base. In both cases, the movements of rocks outside the core would cause flow asymmetry in the liquid core and determine reversal frequency.

* — Laboratoire de Physique Statistique of ENS (Ecole Normale Supérieure/CNRS/UPMC/Université Paris Diderot) and the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (CNRS/IPGP/Université Paris Diderot)

from:  http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/10/111021084539.htm

Turkey —- Strong Earthquake

Very strong damaging earthquake in eastern Turkey – 200 prisoners escaped in Van

Last update: October 23, 2011 at 7:18 pm by By 

Image courtesy www.haberler.com – click on the picture for the photo gallery

Update: There have been 104 aftershocks over M2.7 so far. 22 aftershocks over M4. 4 aftershocks over M5.

Important Update 19:07 UTC87 deaths and 1000 injuries is the estimate at the moment. (Ercis = 60, Van = 25, other localities = 2). This is expected to rise substantially.

Update
– Van Prison : 200 inmates escapedapparently grabbing the opportunity of earthquake.
– According to the news from Agencies, 38 provinces have send 1275 search and rescue personnel.
– Kandilli Observatory ELER says taking into account the number of buildings that become uninhabitable = 3200-3400, severely damaged buildings = 600 and completely collapsed buildings =  50; 500-700 deaths is the approximate estimate. News from rural locations has not been collected but damage is estimated at around 60-70 percent.

Update 18:58 UTC:  The Turkish government is sending skilled SAR  personnel (Search and rescue) from the other provinces to Van. The Van airport is till operational what facilitates transport to the earthquake zone. On top of that much equipment like ambulances, tents, medical personnel, etc. Turkey is well organized to deal with earthquakes.

Update 18:21 UTC:  – The weather outlook tonight is mixed. It is not raining or snowing but thetemperatures will be at freezing point. As people will prefer to stay in the open air (to scared to go inside for eventual very strong aftershocks), they may have a night with almost no sleep.
– As the night has fallen in Turkey (it is now 21:21 in Turkey) limited news facts are coming through.
– The death toll is unchanged since many hours at 85 but will certainly increase within the next 4 to 24 hours. A lot of people are still buried under the debris of the collapsed houses.
– We cannot reach the server from the local Ercis newspaper anymore
– NATO stands ready to assist Turkey  if needed

Update:  Doctors from Ercis State Hospital reported that the number of the injured patients is close to 1000. Many patients are kept in the hospital’s parking lot and the garden in tents.

Update:  The Armenian President sent an message of condolences to the President of the Republic of Turkey Abdullah Gül regarding the earthquake that occurred in the Van province. Armenia is located at a relatively short distance from the earthquake area and people in Armenia were very frightened by the shaking (see I have Felt It reports below).

UpdateGermany has offered help to Turkey after an earthquake hit the eastern province of Van
The German Green Party called on the international community to provide fast and “unbureaucratic” support for rescue workers.

New casualty Update:   85 people are now reportedly killed during this earthquake (25 in Van and 60 in Ercis)

Update:   – A lot of people are leaving the cities and are heading for family in the rural areas. They fear the narrow streets with medium rise apartment buildings.
– Israel has offered to help Turkey with this disaster. It is unknown that Turkey has accepted this offer, as the 2 countries had a lot of differences in the recent past. In a later message Turkey declined the offered aid in saying that Turkey will deal with it internally.

for more information, videos, and updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/10/23/very-strong-dangerous-earthquake-in-eastern-turkey/

Large Kermadec Islands Earthquake

Second massive Kermadec Islands earthquake in 4 months time

Last update: October 21, 2011 at 11:10 pm by By 

being dangerous for populated islands. See links above

Information Bulletin Supplement Pacific Ocean :
SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. FOR THOSE AREAS – WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE CONTINUING SEA LEVEL CHANGES AND RAPID CURRENTS.  AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES. NO TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS IN THE PACIFIC ALTHOUGH SOME OTHER AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL NON-DESTRUCTIVE SEA LEVEL CHANGES LASTING UP TO SEVERAL HOURS
NOAA Pacific Ocean message :

NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
NOAA Hawaii message :
BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A  DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

Local tsunami in an unpopulated area – courtesy GDACS

Update:The earthquake has been felt in the North Island of New Zealand, more than 1000 km away from the epicenter.

Raoul island is too far away to experience a destructive shaking. A tsunami was generated with limited wave heights  and was not expected to be dangerous in New Zealand or Tonga.

Understanding this earthquake

The October 21, 2011 Kermadec Islands region earthquake occurred near the Kermadec Trench where the Pacific Plate begins its decent into the mantle beneath the eastern edge of the Australian Plate. At the latitude of this earthquake, the Pacific Plate is converging with Australia in a westward direction at a velocity of approximately 61 mm/yr. The preliminary mechanism and depth of the event suggest it ruptured a reverse fault within the oceanic lithosphere of the Pacific Plate; the initial location indicate a source slightly to the east of the trench, outboard (seaward) of the subduction zone itself, and thus not on the thrust interface between the Pacific and Australian plates.

The October 21 earthquake struck in an oceanic region with few nearby populations, approximately 500 km south of Tonga and 700 km north of New Zealand. This region of the Tonga-Kermadec subduction zone experiences reasonably high levels of seismic activity, with nearly 50 events of M 6.5 and above over the past 38 years, and 5 greater than M 7.5. Two of these, M 7.8 and M8.2 earthquakes on the same day in 1976, occurred just over 100 km west-northwest of todays event; an M7.8 event in 1978 struck nearly 250 km to the southwest, and an M 8.3 event occurred in October 1986, about 80 km to the north. None of these events have recorded damage or casualties.

In July of this year, a M 7.6 event occurred approximately 45 km to the south-southwest of the October 21 earthquake, breaking a normal fault within the subducting Pacific plate also very close to the Kermadec Trench. This event was notable because it triggered a large number of thrust-faulting aftershocks to the west of the plate boundary, on or close to the interface between the Pacific and Australian plates. The October 21 earthquake may be related to that aftershock sequence.

for more, go to:   http://earthquake-report.com/2011/10/21/second-massive-kermadec-islands-earthquake-in-4-months-time/

Bolivia’s Inflating Volcano

Planet Earth – SCITECH

Rapidly Inflating Volcano Creates Growing Mystery

By Andrea Mustain

Published October 20, 2011

  • uturuncu-full-111019-02.jpg

    Noah Finnegan

    How long has this been going on? Uturuncu, a Bolivian volcano that is inflating at an incredible rate.

Should anyone ever decide to make a show called “CSI: Geology,” a group of scientists studying a mysterious and rapidly inflating South American volcano have got the perfect storyline.

Researchers from several universities are essentially working as geological detectives, using a suite of tools to piece together the restive peak’s past in order to understand what it is doing now, and better diagnose what may lie ahead.

It’s a mystery they’ve yet to solve.

Uturuncu is a nearly 20,000-foot-high (6,000 meters) volcano in southwest Bolivia. Scientists recently discovered the volcano is inflating with astonishing speed.

“I call this ‘volcano forensics,’ because we’re using so many different techniques to understand this phenomenon,” said Oregon State University professor Shan de Silva, a volcanologist on the research team.

Researchers realized about five years ago that the area below and around Uturuncu is steadily rising — blowing up like a giant balloon under a wide disc of land some 43 miles (70 kilometers) across. Satellite data revealed the region was inflating by 1 to 2 centimeters (less than an inch) per year and had been doing so for at least 20 years, when satellite observations began.

“It’s one of the fastest uplifting volcanic areas on Earth,” de Silva told OurAmazingPlanet.”What we’re trying to do is understand why there is this rapid inflation, and from there we’ll try to understand what it’s going to lead to.”

The  peak is perched like a party hat at the center of the inflating area. “It’s very circular. It’s like a big bull’s-eye,” said Jonathan Perkins, a graduate student at the University of California, Santa Cruz, who recently presented work on the mountain at this year’s Geological Society of America meeting  in Minneapolis.

Scientists figured out from the inflation rate that the pocket of magma beneath the volcano was growing by about 27 cubic feet (1 cubic meter) per second.

“That’s about 10 times faster than the standard rate of magma chamber growth you see for large volcanic systems,” Perkins told OurAmazingPlanet.

However, no need to flee just yet, the scientists said.

“It’s not a volcano that we think is going to erupt at any moment, but it certainly is interesting, because the area was thought to be essentially dead,” de Silva said.

Uber-Uturuncu?

Uturuncu is surrounded by one of the most dense concentrations of supervolcanoes on the planet, all of which fell silent some 1 million years ago.

Supervolcanoes get their name because they erupt with such power that they typically spew out 1,000 times more material, in sheer volume, than a volcano like Mount St. Helens. Modern human civilization has never witnessed such an event. The planet’s most recent supervolcanic eruption happened about 74,000 years ago in Indonesia.

“These eruptions are thought to have not only a local and regional impact, but potentially a global impact,” de Silva said.

Uturuncu itself is in the same class as Mount St. Helens in Washington state, but its aggressive rise could indicate that a new supervolcano is on the way. Or not.

De Silva said it appears that local volcanoes hoard magma for about 300,000 years before they blow — and Uturuncu last erupted about 300,000 years ago.

“So that’s why it’s important to know how long this has been going on,” he said.

To find an answer, scientists needed data that stretch back thousands of years — but they had only 20 years of satellite data.

Volcano rap sheet

“So that’s where we come in as geomorphologists — to look for clues in the landscape to learn about the long-term topographic evolution of the volcano,” Perkins said.

Perkins and colleagues used ancient lakes, now largely dry, a

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/10/20/rapidly-inflating-volcano-creates-growing-mystery/#ixzz1bMmchvAv