INCOMING CME? A magnetic filament in the sun’s northern hemisphere erupted on Jan. 5th and hurled a CME in the general direction of Earth. At first it appeared that the cloud would sail north of Earth and completely miss our planet. Subsequent work by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab suggests a different outcome: the CME might deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Jan. 7th. Click to view an animated forecast track:
NOAA forecasters were already calling for a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Jan. 7-8 in response to a high-speed solar wind stream. The arrival of a CME would boost the chances even more.
SOLAR ERUPTION: A teepee-shaped magnetic prominence that solar astronomers had been monitoringfordays erupted this morning. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the action:
Although much of the prominence fell back to the sun, some of the structure did fly into space, producing a coronal mass ejection. SOHO coronagraphs of the CME show that it is propagating up and out of the plane of the solar system: movie. Probably no planet will be hit by the expanding cloud
ANd then, there is this to consider also:
CALM BEFORE THE STORM? Solar activity remains generally low, but the quiet is unlikely to persist with so many sunspots turning toward Earth. NOAA forecaters estimate a 30% chance of M-class solar flares during the next 24 hours.
CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot 1302, quiet now for three days, still has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of such eruptions today. X-flare alerts:text,voice.
SOLAR WIND BLASTS MERCURY: At a NASA teleconference yesterday, researchers working with data from the Messenger spacecraft offered new evidence that gusts of solar wind are penetrating Mercury’s magnetic field and eroding material off the planet’s surface. The spacecraft has actually flown through plumes of ionized sodium scoured from the surface and escaping from weak points in Mercury’s magnetosphere. Click here and scroll down to “Presenter #4” for relevant data and images.
Another “scouring event” could be in the offing. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) observed two farside CMEs on Sept 29th, and one of them is heading for the innermost planet:
Using observations from SOHO and the twin STEREO spacecraft, analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have modeled the trajectory of these CMEs. The one on the left should hit Mercury on October 1st at 02:13 UT +/- 7 hours. Forewarned, mission scientists for the Messenger probe can be attentive to the CME’s arrival and observe its effects on Mercury.
According to the CME’s forecast track, the cloud will hit Venus later the same day. The ability to forecast CME impacts on other planets is a new development in space weather forecasting made possible by NASA’s deployment of spacecraft around the full circumference of the sun.
NIGHT TO REMEMBER: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth’s magnetic field around noon Universal Time on Sept. 26th. The impact set the stage for a night to remember. As soon as darkness fell over Scandinavia, auroras filled the sky with such intensity that they were visible through rain clouds. Fredrik Broms photographed the scene from Kvaløya, Norway:
“These were some of the most amazing auroras I have ever seen,” says Broms, a longtime observer of the Arctic lights. “The colours were absolutely stunning with purple and deep blood-red in addition to the green. It was a night I will never forget!
Sky watchers at the highest latitudes should remain alert for auroras as Earth’s magnetic field continues to reverberate from the CME impact.
GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: A pair of closely-spaced CMEs propelled by explosions of sunspot AR1302 on Sept. 24th are heading not-quite directly toward Earth. A significant glancing blow to our planet’s magnetic field is possible on Sept. 26th around 14:00 UT (+/- 7 hours). NOAA forecasters estimate a ~25% chance of geomagnetic storms when the clouds arrive. [CME forecast track] Aurora alerts:text, voice.
STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: Having already unleashed two X-flares since Sept. 22nd, sunspot AR1302 appears ready for more. The active region has a complex “beta-gamma-delta” magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M- and X-classeruptions. Flares from AR1302 will become increasingly geoeffective as the sunspot turns toward Earth in the days ahead.
Marko Posavec of Koprivnica, Croatia, photographed the behemoth sunspot between flares on Sept. 24th:
Photo details: Olympus E-510, Sigma 50-500mm lens (at 500mm), 1/640 sec. exposure, f/18, ISO 100
“Sunspot complex 1302 is incredibly easy to spot at sunrise or sunset,” says Posavec. “Be careful, though. Even the low-hanging sun is bright enough to damage your eyes if you look at it through optics of any kind.”
FOUR CMEs: On Sept. 19th, the STEREO-SOHO fleet of spacecraft surrounding the sun detected six coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Two of the clouds rapidly dissipated. The remaining four, however, are still intact and billowing through the inner solar system. Click to view a movie of their forecasted paths:
According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, who prepared the movie, one CME should hit Mercury on Sept. 20th at 05:40 UT while another delivers a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Sept. 22th at 23:00 UT. All impact times have an uncertainty of plus or minus 7 hrs.
ACTIVE SUNSPOT: New sunspot AR1295 is emerging over the sun’s northeastern limb and crackling with solar flares. The strongest so far, a C9.9-category blast, did something remarkable. Click on the arrow to watch an extreme ultraviolet movie from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory:
In the movie, the underlying explosion (marked by the flash of extreme UV radiation) hurls material upward. The ejecta crashes into a loop of magnetism above the sunspot, stretching the loop until the material breaks free. Coronagraph images from the STEREO-A spacecraft confirm that a cloud of plasma (a CME) left the scene.
This sunspot will not turn toward Earth for several days. Until then, CMEs leaving AR1295 should continue to miss our planet.
Sun Unleashes Massive Solar Flares in One-Two Punch
Mike Wall, SPACE.com Senior Writer
Date: 07 September 2011 Time: 12:30 PM E
This image taken by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory watching the sun shows a powerful solar flare (center right) just minutes after it erupted on 6:20 p.m. EDT (2220 GMT) on Sept. 6, 2011.
CREDIT: NASA/SDO/GSFC
This story was updated at 8:48 p.m. EDT.
Just as many Americans got back to work after the long Labor Day weekend, the sun jolted to life as well, unleashing a massive solar flare just one day after another sun storm sent a stream of particles racing toward Earth.
The X-class solar flare — the most powerful type of sun storm— erupted at 6:12 p.m. EDT (2212 GMT) on Tuesday (Sept. 6) and hit its peak strength eight minutes later, according to a space weather update by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The flare occurred less than 24 hours after another less intense but still dramatic solar storm.
Several different satellites watched the action unfold, including NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, which constantly records high-definition videos of the sun in several different wavelengths. [Photo of the X-class solar flare]
The Tuesday event registered as an X2.1-class solar flare, while Monday’s storm topped out at a still-powerful M5, NOAA officials said. Strong solar flares are classified according to a three-tiered system: X-class flares are the most powerful, M-class are of medium strength and C-class are the weakest.
September solar storms
Researchers are still taking the measure of the big Tuesday sun storm. It may also have produced a coronal mass ejection (CME) aimed at Earth, researchers said, but as of Tuesday evening it was too early to tell.
CMEs are massive clouds of solar plasma that can streak through space at up to 3 million mph (5 million kph). CMEs that hit Earth can wreak havoc on our planet, causing disruptions in GPS signals, radio communications and power grids.
August 18, 2011: For the first time, a spacecraft far from Earth has turned and watched a solar storm engulf our planet. The movie, released today during a NASA press conference, has galvanized solar physicists, who say it could lead to important advances in space weather forecasting.
“The movie sent chills down my spine,” says Craig DeForest of the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado. “It shows a CME swelling into an enormous wall of plasma and then washing over the tiny blue speck of Earth where we live. I felt very small.”
A wide-angle movie recorded by NASA’s STEREO-A spacecraft shows a solar storm traveling all the way from the sun to Earth and engulfing our planet. A 17 MB Quicktime zoom adds perspective to the main 40 MB Quicktime movie.
