Oregon Bumblebee Deaths

AS if the bee population were not already threatened enough, this happens:

Pesticide blamed in death of 25,000 bumblebees in Oregon

Conservationists in Oregon are trying to figure out why 25,000 bees died in a parking lot.

By Devin KellyJune 21, 2013, 1:08 p.m.

A pesticide used to control aphids has been singled out as the cause in this week’s deaths of tens of thousands of bumblebees in a retail parking lot in Oregon, state officials said Friday.

At least 25,000 bees were found dead and more were dying in a Target parking lot in Wilsonville, about 18 miles southwest of Portland, in what experts have described as the largest known die-off of  bees in the United States.

Witnesses reported bees falling from trees and littering the ground.

Crews worked Friday morning to wrap protective netting, purchased by the city, around the 55 European linden trees in the area. Workers stood on cherry-pickers to place the bee-proof shade material around the large trees, which are in full bloom.

On Monday, concerned calls from shoppers prompted the Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation — a Portland-area conservation group — to sound an alarm. The Oregon State Department of Agriculture responded by sending staff to collect samples of insects and foliage from the linden trees.

State officials were able to directly link the deaths to the pesticide Safari, which was sprayed on the trees Saturday to control aphids, the department said Friday in a statement. Officials have not yet identified the property management agency or the crews that applied the pesticide.

“It was a mistake to put it on linden trees in bloom,” said Dan Hilburn, director of plant programs with the Oregon State Department of Agriculture. Linden flowers contain nectar highly attractive to bees.

The pesticide, in a class called neonicotinoids, is lethal to bees and other pollinators. Honeybees, ladybird beetles (ladybugs) and syrphid flies were also found dead in the lot, said Scott Hoffman Black, executive director of the Xerces Society.

In terms of assessing penalties, investigators are focusing on whether the pesticide was applied incosistently with its labeling, and whether the activity was conducted in a faulty, careless or negligent manner, said Dale Mitchell, the pesticide compliance program manager with the Oregon Department of Agriculture.

Violations can carry fines ranging from $1,000 to $10,000, Mitchell said.

In fact, the product label reads:

“This product is highly toxic to bees exposed to direct treatment or residues on blooming crops or weeds. Do not apply this product or allow it to drift to blooming crops or weeds if bees are visiting the treatment area.”

The environmental impact of neonicotinoids has come under increasing scrutiny worldwide. In April, the European Union banned the use of three types of neonicotinoid pesticides in crops that attract bees.

In the United States, one group, the Center for Food Safety, has sued the Environmental Protection Agency, saying that neonicotinoids are not regulated properly.

In a statement, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said it was aware of the Wilsonville bee deaths. “The EPA is tracking the incident closely but at this time we cannot comment on ongoing investigations,” the agency said.

The Wilsonville incident marked an ominous start to National Pollinator Week, an event designed to bring attention to the disappearance of bees. An estimated 10 billion hives have been lost since colony collapse disorder first emerged in 2006.

Bumblebee hives are much smaller than honeybee hives, and an estimated 150 colonies were destroyed in Wilsonville, Black said.

from:    http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/nationnow/la-na-nn-bumble-bees-die-in-oregon-20130621,0,1466945.story

Ukraine earthquake 6/23

Dangerous earthquake near Kryvyy Rih, Ukraine

Last update: June 23, 2013 at 9:55 pm by By

Update 21:51 UTC : Because of the nightly hours it will take several hours before we will know the results of the local assessment teams

We are calling this earthquake moderately dangerous because of houses build without earthquake resistance. Earthquakes are very unusual in this area and also because of soft soil (farmland)

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346 km SE of Kiev, Ukraine / pop: 2,514,227 / local time: 00:16:34.0 2013-06-24
107 km SE of Kirovohrad, Ukraine / pop: 249,454 / local time: 00:16:34.0 2013-06-24
18 km NE of Kryvyy Rih, Ukraine / pop: 652,380 / local time: 00:16:34.0 2013-06-24

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 4.5

Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-06-24 00:16:34

GMT/UTC Time : 2013-06-23 21:16:34

Depth (Hypocenter)  : 10 km

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2013/06/23/moderate-earthquake-ukrainemoldovasw-russia-region-on-june-23-2013/

Nicaragua – earthquake 6/23

Dangerous earthquake near Nicoya, Costa Rica

Last update: June 23, 2013 at 9:54 pm by By

Update 21:29 UTC : The National Emergency Commission reported that emergency committees across the country have been reporting so far (ER : to early for a serious estimate) falling objects in homes and offices, but no injured people.
Cellular network was down a couple of minutes after the earthquake (this happens over and over gain – authorities should enforce only the use of Text after powerful earthquakes).
Electricity was down several minutes in the ​​Alajuela area.

Update 21:03 UTC : After looking into the diverse data so far and taking into account the historic earthquakes in the area, the location of the epicenter in a wilderness area and the MMI values we are receiving in the back office, we expect none to very minor damage or injuries. The biggest damage potential will come from landslides who almost certainly have been triggered.

Update 21:01 UTC : Oviscori Costa Rica is locating the epicenter closer to the coast. This implicates a greater distance from Nicoya which is good news if confirmed, but at the same time closer to Nosara. Nosara I Have Felt It reports are mentioning the strongest shaking values, most of them MMI VI = strong shaking

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Update 20:59 UTC : Seismograph in Horizontes Guanacaste

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Update 20:55 UTC : The epicenter itself (all 3 agencies) is very sparsely populated. If the Costa Rican parameters are confirmed, we would not exclude damage in the Nicoya area.

Update 20:48 UTC : The direct epicenter area should be wilderness area, but Nicoya is very near (10 km). Nicoya is a city with a population of 13334 (last census)

Nicoya surroundings - Image courtesy Arturo Rodriguez G

Nicoya surroundings – Image courtesy Arturo Rodriguez G

Update 20:45 UTC : Very hard to estimate the chance on damage. The 3 agencies we are reporting are having the same Magnitude but epicenters are seriously different and depths are even more different (18 to 53 km !). OVISCORI Costa Rica maintains his M5.8 at 11 km.

When you are one of the people who experienced this earthquake, please fill in the form behind “I Felt A (not Listed) Earthquake”. Thank you.

Update 20:38 UTC : The reported earthquake parameters from the international agencies are a lot better than those from Costa Rica itself. M5.2 at a depth of 40 km may generate minor damage here and there but a M5.8 at 11 km has a lot more damaging power.

Update 20:33 UTC : The same area was hit on September 5 2012 with a powerful M7.6  earthquake at a depth of 40 km. This earthquake was damaging but luckily nobody was killed. Read our in-depth report about this earthquake here.

Update 20:29 UTC : Costa Rica has a high resistance against earthquakes and even massive quakes are often without fatalities.

Update 20:21 UTC : Earthquake Report calls this earthquake as very dangerous due to the shallow depth and the high risk of landslides.

Oviscori Costa Rica reports a powerful earthquake with a preliminary Magnitude of 5.8 at a very shallow depth of 11 km. 2 km al Noroeste de ZARAGOZA (SANTA ROSA) de Nicoya de Guanacaste

Screen Shot 2013-06-23 at 22.14.49

10km (6mi) WSW of Nicoya, Costa Rica
18km (11mi) SSE of Santa Cruz, Costa Rica
60km (37mi) S of Liberia, Costa Rica
60km (37mi) SW of Canas, Costa Rica
160km (99mi) W of San Jose, Costa Rica

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 5.1

Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-06-23 14:00:41

GMT/UTC Time : 2013-06-23 20:00:41

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2013/06/23/moderate-earthquake-costa-rica-on-june-23-2013/

Turkey, Brazil, Iran Popular Revolts

The Revolt of the Global Middle Class

Here’s what protests in Turkey and Brazil have in common.

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Brazilians hold a demonstration with a banner that reads, “Villainous politician. Lower your salary,” in Sao Paulo on June 22, 2013. (Reuters)

Alper, a 26-year-old Turkish corporate lawyer, has benefited enormously from Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rule. He is one of millions of young Turks who rode the country’s economic boom to a lifestyle his grandparents could scarcely imagine.

Yet he loathes Erdogan, participated in the Taksim Square demonstrations and is taking part in the new ” standing man” protests in Istanbul.

“The prime minister is continuing to blatantly lie about the demonstrations,” said Alper, who asked that his last name not be used because he feared arrest. “People are actually scared that if they stop this momentum, then the government will feel free to exercise more force.”

From Turkey to Brazil to Iran the global middle class is awakening politically. The size, focus and scope of protests vary, but this is not unfolding chaos — it is nascent democracy. Citizens are demanding basic political rights, accountable governments and a fairer share of resources.

The movements may lose their way. The demonstrations will have a limited long-term impact if they fail to become organized political movements. And the violence and criminality that erupted during some protests in Brazil have prompted a popular backlash.

Overall, though, Americans jaded about world affairs should see the activism as positive. The protesters are performing the same role as middle classes have in developed nations. As their standard of living rises, so do their expectations of government.

The political dynamic in each country is different, of course. In Turkey, the protests are not the equivalent of the Arab Spring demonstrations that toppled governments across the Middle East. Nor are they simply a pitched battle between religious conservatives and secular liberals. Instead, they are deeply Turkish — and hugely important.

After decades of the Turkish state reigning supreme, young Turks are demanding pluralism and basic individual rights. The Turkish state should be accountable to the people, they argue, instead of the people being accountable to the state.

“Basic freedoms such as the right to peaceful assembly are undermined by police and government,” Alper said in an email. “There have been no significant repercussions for police officers and their superiors.”

For years, Soli Ozel, a professor of International Relations and Political Science at Istanbul Bilgi University, scoffed at Westerners who viewed Turkey as a model for the Middle East. The new protests, however, make him feel the label may apply.

“After this unprecedented mobilization,” he said in a telephone interview, “we now have a very vibrant and very much alive civil society.”

Brazil presents a different dynamic.The ruling Workers’ Party is left-leaning and its economic reforms have helped the poor and middle class. But now a souring economy, corruption scandals and $12 billion in government spending on 2014 World Cup stadiums has sparked one million people to take to the streets.

Marcelo Ridenti, a leading Brazilian sociologist, said reduced inequality and increased education have raised expectations. The number of university students in Brazil, for example, doubled from 2000 to 2011.

“This generates huge changes in society, including changes in expectations among young people,” he told the New York Times . “They expect to get not only jobs, but good jobs.”

Recent events in Iran are more difficult to discern. While Brazil and Turkey’s political systems are relatively open, Iran’s is tightly controlled. Until last weekend’s presidential election, hard-line religious leaders seemed to have tightened their grip on power after crushing the country’s 2009 Green Revolution.

In a surprise result, cleric Hassan Rohani won a sweeping victory in presidential elections last weekend. Pro-reform and urban Iranians frustrated with the country’s weak economy, isolation and conservative monopoly on power apparently handed Rohani the presidency. Rohani may prove to be more conservative than expected, but his victory prompted thousands of Iranians to take to the streets.

“I am hopeful about the future,” Hoda, a 26-year-old who asked that her last name not be used, told Reuters. “Hopeful that we will have more social freedoms, more stability in Iran, better relations with other countries and hopefully a much better economy.”

Comparing political movements in different countries carries risks. Societies vary enormously. But observers see parallels between Brazil’s protests, India’s anti-corruption movement , austerity protests in Europe, the U.S. Occupy Movement and similar demonstrations in Israel.

My focus on Turkey, Brazil and Iran is driven by recent events and optimism. Positive dynamics are at work in all three nations.

First, the explosive spread of social media played a role in the movements. Networks of like-minded people were able to immediately communicate with one another — and potential recruits. Some online information has been false or restricted, but technological change has unquestionably sped up the pace of political organizing.

Second, all three movements are demanding basic individual rights and accountable government. They want non-corrupt leaders who respect their right to protest, gather and speak freely. From minority rights in Turkey, to fair elections in Iran, to better policing, healthcare and transit in Brazil, protesters want improved governance.

There will be setbacks, excesses and confusion in the weeks ahead. But the burgeoning middle class activism in Turkey, Iran and Brazil should be hailed. Like their brethren in developed countries, they are a check on government excess — and create stronger, more vibrant societies.

from:    http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/06/the-revolt-of-the-global-middle-class/277125/

Greece & Chemtrail Action

Greeks reject US doublespeak on chemtrails and climate change

by  • 

Wayne Hall, a Greece chemtrail activist, takes a look at how the US steers the discussion of climate change and geoengineering in this 15-minute video:

The surest way not to understand what is happening with geoengineering is to become involved in the contrails versus chemtrails debate. Rather than debate whether chemtrails are contrails, one should point out the parallel with what happened with genetically modified food production: the corporations and their laboratories and their lobbyists decide to introduce a change, so at the same time they start a public relations campaign to deny that any change has occurred.

In the case of genetic modification the key word was “substantial equivalence”. Genetically modified foods are not the same as non-genetically modified foods, chemically, nutritionally or in any other way. Sometimes they look the same. “Substantial equivalence” means that they have to be treated as if they are the same. Soon laws are introduced to make it illegal to make any distinction between them or to say that they are not the same.

Something similar has happened with geoengineering: a decision was taken to change aircraft emissions and turn them from being an unwanted side-effect of flying jet aircraft into being a deliberate means for changing the temperature and the chemistry of the atmosphere. So naturally it was denied that any change had occurred.

Almost fifteen years after the implementation of a massive increase in the use of climate modification on a planetary scale, people are still conducting the chemtrails versus contrails debate. This is NOT what is happening with genetic modification. Ecologists are mostly not wasting their time arguing with corporation spokespersons over whether there is substantial equivalence between genetically modified and non-genetically modified food. The same should have happened with geoengineering, and if it hasn’t happened it should happen now.

Chemtrails do not serve a single purpose, of increasing albedo, cooling the planet, or whatever. They also serve the purpose of increasing the conductivity of the atmosphere to facilitate the operations of Alaskan ionospheric heater HAARP, and the similar smaller installations that exist in other countries.

HAARP was the subject of a report in the European Parliament in 1998, the work of the Swedish anti-nuclear campaigner Maj Britt Theorin. Mrs Theorin’s report is entitled “On the Environment, Security and Foreign Policy”. It describes HAARP as “weapons system which disrupts the climate” and concludes that “by virtue of its far-reaching impact on the environment it is a global concern. Its legal, ecological and ethical implications must be examined by an international independent body before any further research and testing.”

The European Commission said that it could not act on the report or try to implement it, because the European Commission does not have authority over defence questions, which are the responsibility of NATO.

There are two things to say about this: firstly this contradicts the United States’ representation of what HAARP is, because US government says that HAARP is an ionospheric research programme, not a weapons system. Secondly the European Commission’s acceptance of the status of not having responsibility for the defence of European citizens, and accepting that this should be entrusted to NATO, is intolerable.

A new organization called Skyguards includes Green activists from Sweden, Spain and Cyprus, among others, is continuing the work started by Mrs. Maj-Britt Theorin in 1998. Americans, as much as Europeans and the people of the rest of the planet, need this work to be continued, because they are not being defended by their own government. They are being attacked by their own government.

Wayne Hall is a Greek citizen, born in Australia, graduate of the University of Sydney, teacher and freelance translator. In the nineteen eighties he was a member of European Nuclear Disarmament, the non-aligned British-based anti-nuclear-weapons movement. His website in Greece is http://www.enouranois.gr

from:        http://foodfreedomgroup.com/2013/06/23/greeks-reject-us-doublespeak-on-chemtrails-and-climate-change/

GM Crop Yields Diminsh

US farmers may stop planting GMs after poor global yields
Wednesday 06 February 2013 08:30

GM crops

Some US farmers are considering returning to conventional seed after increased pest resistance and crop failures meant GM crops saw smaller yields globally than their non-GM counterparts.

Farmers in the USA pay about an extra $100 per acre for GM seed, and many are questioning whether they will continue to see benefits from using GMs.

“It’s all about cost benefit analysis,” said economist Dan Basse, president of American agricultural research company AgResource.

“Farmers are paying extra for the technology but have seen yields which are no better than 10 years ago. They’re starting to wonder why they’re spending extra money on the technology.”

One of the biggest problems the USA has seen with GM seed is resistance. While it was expected to be 40 years before resistance began to develop pests such as corn rootworm have formed a resistance to GM crops in as few as 14 years.

“Farmers are paying extra for the technology but have seen yields which are no better than 10 years ago.”
Dan Basse

“Some of these bugs will eat the plant and it will make them sick, but not kill them. It starts off in pockets of the country but then becomes more widespread.

“We’re looking at going back to cultivation to control it,” said Mr Basse. “I now use insecticides again.”

One of the issues if farmers do move back towards non-GMs will be the availability of seed, he said, as around 87% of US farmers plant genetically modified seed.

The top performing countries by crop yield last year were in Asia, in particular China, where farmers do not use GM seed.

from:    http://www.fwi.co.uk/articles/06/02/2013/137518/us-farmers-may-stop-planting-gms-after-poor-global-yields.htm#.UcdmqOsYKlk

Northern Italy Aftershock

Moderate earthquake (aftershock) in Northern Italy close to Massa

Last update: June 23, 2013 at 4:25 pm by By

Update 16:25 UTC : Good news: The house with the collapsed roof as uninhabited, so nobody was injured.

Update 16:15 UTC : A roof in the village Villa Minozzo collapsed by the new quake, local newspapers report.

Update 15:59 UTC : According to testimonies, this quake was also felt in Milan, Florence and Geneva. If you also felt this quake, please let us now. (See form below)

Update 15:43 UTC : As seen on the INGV ShakeMap below, a moderate shaking is expected in the area close to the epicenter.

Update 15:35 UTC : Villages within a radius of 10 km from the epicenter : CASOLA IN LUNIGIANA (MS), IUNCUGNANO (LU), MINUCCIANO (LU), PIAZZA AL SERCHIO (LU) and VAGLI SOTTO (LU)

This atershock was the strongest aftershock hitting Tuscany (northern Italy) since the mainshock two days ago. It is possible that more damages were caused by this quake. Especially already damaged buildings are endangered to for new, heavier damage.
INGV gives Magnitude 4.4 and a depth of 9.5 km for this quake. The epicenter is 5 km southeast of the mainshock epicenter, directly the village Minucciano.

intensity (1)

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 4.7

Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-06-23 17:01:36

GMT/UTC Time : 2013-06-23 15:01:36

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2013/06/23/moderate-earthquake-northern-italy-on-june-23-2013-3/

Earthquake off Guam

Moderate earthquake 32 km from Hagatna, Guam (June 22, 2013)

Last update: June 22, 2013 at 8:22 pm by By

The earthquake struck in the early morning hours and was felt by many people on the island.

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16km (10mi) E of Yigo Mayor’s Office, Guam
17km (11mi) E of Yigo Village, Guam
22km (14mi) E of Dededo Village, Guam
28km (17mi) ENE of Mangilao Village, Guam
32km (20mi) E of Hagatna, Guam

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 4.6

Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-06-23 05:47:11

GMT/UTC Time : 2013-06-22 19:47:11

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2013/06/22/moderate-earthquake-guam-region-on-june-22-2013/

Damaging earthquake Gili Islands Area, Indonesia

Earthquake near the Gili Islands, Lombok, Indonesia far more damaging than earlier expected

Last update: June 22, 2013 at 6:06 pm by By

The earthquake happened at close distance from the Lombok coast but was also felt well at Bali, a major touristic destination

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12km (7mi) NW of Karangsubagan, Indonesia
30km (19mi) NNW of Mataram, Indonesia
48km (30mi) ENE of Karangasem, Indonesia
50km (31mi) NNW of Praya, Indonesia
1040km (646mi) ESE of Jakarta, Indonesia

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 5.2

Local Time (conversion only below land) : Unknown

GMT/UTC Time : 2013-06-22 05:42:37

Depth (Hypocenter)  : 10 km

Update 10:38 UTC : Local Lombok Regional Disaster Management Agency, West Nusa Tenggara, reports that the shaking resulted in 1,700 severely damaged houses. 24 people were injured, 3 of them seriously. The seriously injured people are being hospitalized in Tanjung.  The 3 districts who where most severely hit by the shaking were Kecamatan Gangga, Tanjung and Kecamatan Pemenang. We have NO reports of fatalities at the time of writing.
At 6 villages, a lot of brick houses have collapsed. 27 houses of worship, consisting of 15 mosques, 10 temples and two monasteries were damaged at various extend. BPBD has now setup a command post on Lombok to distribute relief aid.
We have no knowledge of tourists being hurt but almost all of them were very scared, especially those residing at Lombok or the Gili Islands.
We have 1 major remark to tourists staying at the island : DO NOT RUN OUT OF YOUR HOTEL WHILE THE SHAKING IS GOING ON, THIS IS THE MOST DANGEROUS YOU CAN DO. Most of people getting hurt during earthquakes are victims of falling objects while running out of houses, offices etc. Read carefully this internationally accepted advise.

Image courtesy and copyright @infojogja via twitpic

Image courtesy and copyright @infojogja via twitpic

Update 10:38 UTC : It is reported that an unknown number of people were injured while fleeing from their homes. No injuries by falling debris so far. The settlement were damage was reported was “Kopang“.

Update 09:02 UTC : Local Indonesian newspaper Merdeka reports that a unspecified number of houses were damaged at Lombok and that a couple of houses even collapsed. At the time of writing there were NO reports of injured people.

Update 08:29 UTC : BMKG shaking map for this earthquake. This shaking map has a common zoom index which means that we cant see the detailed MMI values of the Gili Islands. The shaking map below gives a maximum shaking of MMI IV or light shaking. Based on the Experience reports we have received it was a MMI VI at the nearest island

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Update 07:29 UTC : After reading some of our own reports from the Gili Islands, we can confirm that at least minor damage was generated. Cracks in walls, fallen plaster, etc.

Update 07:27 UTC : BMKG, the local Indonesian seismological agency reports a Magnitude of 5.4 at a depth of 10 km, more or less in line with the international agencies.

Update 07:21 UTC : The epicenter of this shallow earthquake was below or just off the coast of the Gili Islands. All 3 islands are very touristic and 2 of the islands are very vulnerable for Tsunami waves.  The Magnitude is however not strong enough to generate destructive tsunami waves.

Update : The seismogram of this earthquake. the Geofon seismogram shows also the first aftershocks

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Update :  One of our readers is reporting broken windows in Lombok, which puts another view on this earthquake. As the earthquake was close to the coast (but as there is always a serious error margin) the coastal habitation may have been hit with some minor structural damage.

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2013/06/22/moderate-earth

Deadly Floods in the Himalayas

Earth’s deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India’s Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 – 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 – 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20″ (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 – 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. According to Dr. Dave Petley’s Landslide Blog, Earth’s deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China hit Uttarakhand’s Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which is just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors. Hindu devotees visit Uttarakhand in huge numbers for the char-dham yatra, or a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous building in the town were demolished.

According to Aon Benfield’s May Catastrophe Report, Earth’s deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Banglaadesh, Nepal, 1/1 – 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 – 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 – 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 – 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 – 17, 2013, from NASA’s TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India’s Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

An unusually early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India a full month earlier than normal. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci’s post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year’s monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster–human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. “Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods,” said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year’s rapid advance to a “normal” progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people–an average of 500 people per year–died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 – 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean’s absorbed heat into a “mixed layer” approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun’s heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth–the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 – 55 kph (30 – 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 – 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, “These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios.” We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 – 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 – 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s–a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains–failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India’s booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India’s history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, ” Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment”, Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 – 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground’s climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.

Jeff Masters

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html