ACTIVE SUNSPOT: A sunspot, currently located on the farside of the sun, is about to emerge over the sun’s southeastern limb. It is crackling with M-class solar flares and could bring a significant uptick in solar activity.
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EARTH-DIRECTED CME: Magnetic fields near sunspot AR1582 slowly erupted on Oct 5th sparking a B7-class solar flare and hurling a CME toward Earth. The Solar and Heliosphere Observatory (SOHO) captured this image of the expanding cloud:
Although Earth is in the line of fire, it won’t be a direct hit. Instead, the CME will deliver a glancing blow to our planet’s magnetic field. NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras especially during the hours around local midnight.
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CME IMPACT: A coronal mass ejection hit Earth’s magnetic field on Sept. 30th at 10:25 UT. The impact was weak, lifting the solar wind speed around Earth barely above 300 km/s. Nevertheless, auroras are possible around the Arctic Circle as Earth’s magnetic field reverberates from the impact. Aurora alerts: text, voice.
The CME was propelled into space on Sept. 28th by an eruption of sunspot AR1577. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory caught the cloud expanding toward Earth at 2.2 million mph:
Although the initial impact was weak, a geomagnetic storm could develop in the wake of the CME.
from: spaceweather.com
EMERGING BLAST SITE: A farside sunspot that exploded and hurled a bright CME into space on Sept. 23rd is now rotating onto the Earthside of the sun. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the emerging blast site during the early hours of Sept. 26th:
Because the sunspot is still near the sun’s eastern horizon, foreshortening prevents a clear view of its core magnetic structure. The events of Sept. 23rd, however, suggest that this could be a potent active region. Stay tuned for updates as the sunspot turns toward Earth
from: spaceweather.com
ENTANGLED ERUPTION: Interrupting days of quiet, sunspot AR1564 erupted on Saturday, Sept. 8th, producing an M1-class solar flare. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Obervatory (SDO) recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:
The movie shows more than just a single flare. This eruption was “entangled.” A magnetic tendril guided a wave of hot plasma all the way from the blast site to another active region (AR1562) on the western limb ~250,000 km away.
Since SDO was launched in 2010, the observatory has recorded hundreds of entangled eruptions. Sometimes they spread like a chain reaction to involve nearly the entire sun. A good example is the global eruption of August 2010. The moral to this story: One little flare can go a long way.
from: spaceweather.com
MAGNIFICENT ERUPTION: A filament of magnetism curling around the sun’s southeastern limb erupted on August 31st, producing a coronal mass ejection (CME), a C8-class solar flare, and one of the most beautiful movies ever recorded by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory:
The explosion hurled a CME away from the sun traveling faster than 500 km/s (1.1 million mph). The cloud, shown here, is not heading directly toward Earth, but it could deliver a glancing blow to our planet’s magnetic field on or about September 3rd. This date is preliminary and may be changed in response to more data from coronagraphs on the Solar and Heliophysics Observatory (SOHO).
from: spaceweather.com
CHANCE OF STORMS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on August 7/8. That’s when a coronal mass ejection (CME) hurled into space by a filament eruption on Aug. 4 could deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field
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ERUPTING MAGNETIC FILAMENT: A filament of magnetism connecting sunspots AR1538 and AR1540 rose up and erupted on August 4th. Look for the extreme UV glow of hot plasma in this movie recorded by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory:
As the filament ripped through the sun’s atmosphere, it propelled a massive CME into space: movie. The expanding cloud does not appear to be on a collision course with Earth, although a glancing blow might be possible 2 to 3 days hence.
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GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on July 29-30 in response to a high-speed solar wind stream buffeting Earth’s magnetic field. Even stronger storming could occur on July 31st when a CME associated with yesterday’s M6-flare arrives. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras for the next three nights.
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M6-CLASS FLARE: Solar activity is picking up. For the second day in a row, sunspot AR1532 has unleashed a moderately-strong solar flare. The latest, an M6-class eruption, occurred on July 28th at 2056 UT. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme UV flash:
It is too soon to say if the eruption produced a coronal mass ejection (CME). If it did, Earth would likely receive no more than a glancing blow from the cloud. The sunspot is too far off disk center to be very geoeffective. This could change in the days ahead, however, as the sunspot turns toward Earth.
from: spaceweather.com
