Yearly Archives: 2011

Winter Storm Heads Towards MidWest

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7-9 Inches Mon-Wed From Texas to Michigan; Chicago and Other Locations On The Verge of A Major Winter Storm

December 3, 2011  |   Filed under: Climate,Climate Information,Winter Weather,Winter Weather Information  |   Posted by: 

16+ States Are Likely to be affected by this winter storm! Are you prepared? 

Winter has officially set in as Meteorological Winter Started last Thursday December 2but it sure hasn’t looked like winter or even fall prior to the start of December. Almost all of the Center and Eastern portions of the United States ended up above normal in temperatures. But as quick as warm weather was sent in it will leave in a nippy fashion as we roll towards the weekend. Currently, Storm Central’s Jonny J has been tracking and forecasting the low pressure development of Storm #1 as a swath of snow from Nebraska (northeast) to Michigan. That storm is forecast to drop around a half of foot of snow. On a more nationwide basis, a huge drop in the Jet stream is bringing cold air from Canada all the way south to Texas just in time for yet another Snow Storm.

Storm Central’s Gino Recchia noted this storm system Thursday night as shown by the DJEX model. Since then, this storm has taken over the larger topic in the weather center as this storm has the potential to drop snowfall for at least 16 states come Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday. 

The current low pressure expected to move north east and be in Canada by Sunday is set to send a trailing cold front in it’s wake. That is not only going to set the stage for cold weather but is also forecast to spin up a low pressure between Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas. Models have had this storm complex way east and heading up the east coast on Thursday but totally flipped Friday morning. Alike the past storms, this storm has shifted westward a good 200 miles so that puts places areas that weren’t in the forecast for snow on Thursday model runs, on the model runs come Saturday. The low pressure is expected to strengthen over portions of Indiana then continue its north east to north north east pattern up towards Buffalo, New York. The major thing about this storm is going to be its snow side. This storm is going to be a slow developer at first then race north eastward over time. But Oklahoma and Texas will likely see an significant accumulation of snow due to cold air in place and plenty of Gulf Moisture to tap.Reading a few posts, It seems as forecasters are worried about the low pressure sitting their for time after time and picking up plenty of gulf moisture. In fact, their so worried that they are throwing out over 18 Inches of snow in all the wrong areas. Trust us folks… no 18+ Inches in any locations (aside from Mountains).

With every storm complex they always have their share of wild cards and this one has plenty!

  • How far south is this storm going to develop? How long will it sit and inhibit moisture into the system and therefore cause much higher rain and snow totals?
  • The exact track of the system is still undefined but we do know the general area (within 300miles) of track forecast.
  • How far south is the storm system going to track south? Lake effect?

Plenty more wild cards but those are the three major ones. Currently, model runs have noted back east with each run but what I am concerned about is the past 5 storms have all transitioned back westward. For example: Last Monday (Nov 21) Models noted a Chicago 6+ snowfall. Well, look where we are at 10 days later with this storm track 500miles west of Chicago. That very well could occur again and that is what I am concerned about.

EXCLUSIVE TO STORM CENTRAL:
Keeping all that in mind, Storm Central has placed a Winter Weather Key with our new and updated graphics. As you can see, from New Mexico to Michigan, you are under “watch for impact”. Please note the picture below to see what key you are currently under. These keys will change over the next day so this key is only valid for Saturday’s Forecast ONLY.

So how much snow are we talking is what everyone wants to know correct? Their is going to be a very narrow band of heavy snow like the previous storm. Some locations are going to see a mix of snow and rain and others are likely to see heavy rain from this which could tally up to over 3 inches.

*Please Note: Instead of releasing an early forecast, Storm Central would like to continue our accurate and precise forecasts by waiting till 3 days out on a tricky forecast like this. So, even though this forecast is out, remember the wild cards and how they can change virtually everything*

Here is what to expect:

-Oklahoma City, Oklahoma- Heavy snow likely to begin Monday Morning and quickly spread into Northeast Oklahoma by Monday Afternoon. Snow will be heavy at times with snow falling at over 1 inch per hour. Winds will not be horrible but an accumulation of at least 6 inches cannot be ruled out. (Just to the east will receive slightly higher amounts of snow) Snow is likely to last well into Tuesday Morning.

-Joplin, Missouri- So Far, Joplin looks to be in a bulls eye if current forecast come through. Heavy snow will spread in Monday night and accumulations between 7-9 inches are a potential with some locations seeing 10 inches of snow nearby. Wind will likely not be a major threat either as sustained winds between 20-30mph. Snow will likely end Tuesday evening.

-Springfield, Illinois- Springfield is also looking to get a decent accumulation with at least 6 inches of snow. Higher accumulations are a potential.

-Fort Wayne/Bluffton, Indiana Locations- Either way you move it, you are in for a solid snow event. A potential 6+ is in the forecast with most locations ending up with a 7-9 inch effect. Heavy snow at times will fall with winds between 20-30 sustained. Snow should begin Tuesday morning and last into Wednesday morning.

-Chicago, Illinois- Chicago is right on the verge of snow in this forecast. Due to model runs trending east again, we may come out with nothing. But, like other storms, this one should make a bit of a left turn and place some snow in the City and south. North suburbs could luck out. The track of this storm varies as the lake machine could turn on and add to some extra accumulations on Wednesday morning.

-Grand Rapids, Michigan- Another tricky forecast due to the track of the system but Grand Rapids should receive at least a half of foot of snow, if not more, out of this storm complex.

for more, go to:    http://stormcentral1st.com/?p=3670

Life Lessons from “STAR TREK”

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David Borgenicht

President, Quirk Books

7 Life Lessons You Can Learn From ‘Star Trek’

Posted: 11/29/11 08:01 AM ET

Let me start out by coming clean: I am a closet Trekkie.

I went to my first “Star Trek” convention when I was nine. I have owned dozens of “Star Trek” toys, models, props and books over the years (and yes, I used to make my Kirk and Uhura action figures kiss). I even have a communicator app on my iPhone (and I’m eagerly waiting for the tricorder app now that Siri has arrived). I don’t own a uniform, but I wish I did (Hint hint: Channukah’s coming, family. I’ll take the classic Captain’s shirt in M, please, so that it rips easier when I get into fights).

My love of “Star Trek” began at an early age and has lasted to this day. But why? It isn’t just because of the campy sets and costumes that are still iconic. It isn’t because of the terrific performance by Leonard Nimoy (Spock) or Captain Kirk’s Shatnerific overacting. It isn’t even because of the superb sci-fi storytelling and writing or the fact that the toys and accoutrements were (and are) so cool that the culture seems to be obsessed with making them real. Although all of that is true.

No, my love of “Trek” has lasted this long because of what I have learned from my friends on the Enterprise over the years.

From the joys of exploration to the simple pleasures of curling up in your own quarters (often with a hot yeoman and a cold drink), from the value of friendship to the value of calling someone’s bluff, I’ve learned dozens of life skills, lessons and even values from the iconic show that ran only three years in prime time when it originally debuted (before I was born).

I think that’s what ultimately motivated me to create and publish (via my company, Quirk Books) “THE STAR TREK BOOK OF OPPOSITES,” as an attempt to familiarize children today (including my own) with the world of “Trek.”

There are no great life lessons in “THE STAR TREK BOOK OF OPPOSITES” (although learning the difference between BIG and LITTLE, HOT and COLD would certainly serve anyone well). But beyond the basics of opposites, the book is a great way to introduce kids to the world and characters of “Star Trek,” in the hopes that someday they will come back to it and begin to appreciate its power and cultural resonance.

I would say there are seven life lessons I learned from “Star Trek” that I take with me to this day. These are lessons I hope to pass along to my own children someday–but for now, I will share them with the interweb.

  1. The best way to travel is to boldly go where no one has gone before. This is true for vacations, for self-exploration, for life itself. If you want your days filled with adventure, laughter, love, learning and the occasional mind-meld, follow this route.
  1. The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few–or the one.Sometimes you must make great sacrifices for the greater good. And, like the Genesis device, it will all come back around.
  1. Expressing your emotions is a healthy thing. Sure, McCoy seemed angry all the time when exclaiming, “Dammit, Jim! I’m a doctor not a mechanic/bricklayer/soothsayer,” but he knew that by expressing his anger and frustration it wouldn’t get the best of him and he could then perform at his peak capacity.
  1. When estimating how long a job will take, overestimate–and when you do better your captain will always be impressed. Replace the word “captain” with “teacher” or “mom/dad” and you’ll see what I mean. Sure, Mr. Scott might have been telling the truth–maybe it would take six hours to get the warp engines back online in the heat of the battle. Or maybe he was padding things so he looked good. Either way, when the engines did come back on line, everyone was happy.
  1. Wearing red makes you a target. This is true of cars, dresses and, most especially, shirts. Red gets you noticed–which is good if you want to be noticed, bad if you don’t want to end up vaporized.
  1. When you don’t know what to say, pause. It will give you the time to figure it out. Or at the very least, you’ll sound like you’re being thoughtful. “But….Spock…..why?”
  1. The most powerful force in the universe is friendship. It’s more powerful than phasers, photon torpedos, even more powerful than the force itself. With friends, you can accomplish any task, escape any perilous situation, defeat any enemy–and you get to laugh together when it’s all over.

I am convinced that these lessons will serve us all, adults and children, well as we seek out new life, new civilizations, new experiences. In short, thanks to “Star Trek,” we may all live long and prosper.

from:    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-borgenicht/star-trek_b_1116920.html?ref=mostpopular

Stone Age Artifacts in Arabia

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Arabian Artifacts May Rewrite ‘Out of Africa’ Theory

Charles Choi, LiveScience Contributor
Date: 30 November 2011 Time: 05:40 PM ET
stone artifacts found in Oman were likely made by striking flakes off flint
The stone artifacts found in Oman were likely made by striking flakes off flint, leading to distinctive triangular shapes. This is the first time this particular stone tool technology has been found outside of Africa.
CREDIT: Yamandu Hilbert

Newfound stone artifacts suggest humankind left Africa traveling through the Arabian Peninsula instead of hugging its coasts, as long thought, researchers say.

Modern humans first arose about 200,000 years ago in Africa. When and how our lineage then dispersed has long proven controversial, but geneticists have suggested this exodus started between 40,000 and 70,000 years ago. The currently accepted theory is that the exodus from Africa traced Arabia’s shores, rather than passing through its now-arid interior.

However, stone artifacts at least 100,000 years old from the Arabian Desert, revealed in January 2011, hinted that modern humans might have begun our march across the globe earlier than once suspected.

Now, more-than-100 newly discovered sites in the Sultanate of Oman apparently confirm that modern humans left Africa through Arabia long before genetic evidence suggests. Oddly, these sites are located far inland, away from the coasts.

“After a decade of searching in southern Arabia for some clue that might help us understand early human expansion, at long last we’ve found the smoking gun of their exit from Africa,” said lead researcher Jeffrey Rose, a paleolithic archaeologist at the University of Birmingham in England. “What makes this so exciting is that the answer is a scenario almost never considered.”

Arabian artifacts

The international team of archaeologists and geologists made their discovery in the Dhofar Mountains of southern Oman, nestled in the southeastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula.

“The coastal expansion hypothesis looks reasonable on paper, but there is simply no archaeological evidence to back it up,” said researcher Anthony Marks of Southern Methodist University, referring to the fact that an exodus by the coast, where one has access to resources such as seafood, might make more sense than tramping across the desert..

On the last day of the research team’s 2010 field season, the scientists went to the final place on their list, a site on a hot, windy, dry plateau near a river channel that was strewn with stone artifacts. Such artifacts are common in Arabia, but until now the ones seen were usually relatively young in age. Upon closer examination, Rose recalled asking, “Oh my God, these are Nubians — what the heck are these doing here?”

The 100-to-200 artifacts they found there were of a style dubbed Nubian Middle Stone Age, well-known throughout the Nile Valley, where they date back about 74,000-to-128,000 years. Scientists think ancient craftsmen would have shaped the artifacts by striking flakes off flint, leading to distinctive triangular pieces. This is the first time such artifacts have been found outside of Africa.

Subsequent field work turned up dozens of sites with similar artifacts. Using a technique known as optically stimulated luminescence dating, which measures the minute amount of light long-buried objects can emit, to see how long they have been interred, the researchers estimate the artifacts are about 106,000 years old, exactly what one might expect from Nubian Middle Stone Age artifacts and far earlier than conventional dates forthe exodus from Africa.

“It’s all just incredibly exciting,” Rose said.

Arabian spring?

Finding so much evidence of life in what is now a relatively barren desert supports the importance of field work, according to the researchers.

“Here we have an example of the disconnect between theoretical models versus real evidence on the ground,” Marks said.

However, when these artifacts were made, instead of being desolate, Arabia was very wet, with copious rain falling across the peninsula, transforming its barren deserts to fertile, sprawling grasslands with lots of animals to hunt, the researchers explained.

“For a while, South Arabia became a verdant paradise rich in resources — large game, plentiful fresh water, and high-quality flint with which to make stone tools,” Rose said.

Instead of hugging the coast, early modern humans might therefore have spread from Africa into Arabia along river networks that would’ve acted like today’s highways, researchers suggested. There would have been plenty of large game present, such as gazelles, antelopes and ibexes, which would have been appealing to early modern humans used to hunting on the savannas of Africa.

“The genetic signature that we’ve seen so far of an exodus 70,000 years ago might not be out of Africa, but out of Arabia,” Rose told LiveScience.

So far the researchers have not discovered the remains of humans or any other animals at the site. Could these tools have been made by now-extinct human lineages such as Neanderthals that left Africa before modern humans did? Not likely, Rose said, as all the Nubian Middle Stone Age tools seen in Africa are associated with our ancestors. [Photos: Our Closest Human Ancestor]

It remains a mystery as to how early modern humans from Africa crossed the Red Sea, since they did not appear to enter the Arabian Peninsula from the north, through the Sinai Peninsula, Rose explained. “Back then, there was no land bridge in the south of Arabia, but the sea level might not have been that low,” he said. Archaeologists will have to continue combing the deserts of southern Arabia for more of what the researchers called a “trail of stone breadcrumbs.”

The scientists detailed their findings online Nov. 30 in the journal PLoS ONE.

from:    http://www.livescience.com/17248-arabian-artifacts-humans-africa.html

Large Scale “Spooky Action at a Distance”

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Two Diamonds Linked by Strange Quantum Entanglement

Clara Moskowitz, LiveScience Senior Writer
Date: 01 December 2011 Time: 02:00 PM ET
Quantum entanglement is demonstrated in two macroscopic diamonds
The vibrational states of two spatially separated, millimeter-sized diamonds are entangled at room temperature by beaming laser light at them (green). The researchers verified this entanglement by studying the subsequent laser pulses beamed through the system.
CREDIT: Science/AAAS

Scientists have linked two diamonds in a mysterious process called entanglement that is normally only seen on the quantum scale.

Entanglement is so weird that Einstein dubbed it “spooky action at a distance.” It’s a strange effect where one object gets connected to another so that even if they are separated by large distances, an action performed on one will affect the other. Entanglement usually occurs with subatomic particles, and was predicted by the theory of quantum mechanics, which governs the realm of the very small.

But now physicists have succeeded in entangling two macroscopic diamonds, demonstrating that quantum mechanical effects are not limited to the microscopic scale.

“I think it’s an important step into a new regime of thinking about quantum phenomena,” physicist Ian Walmsley of England’s University of Oxford said.”That is, in this regime of the bigger world, room temperatures, ambient conditions. Although the phenomenon was expected to exist, actually being able to observe it in such a system we think is quite exciting.”

Another study recently used quantum entanglement to teleport bits of light from one place to another. And other researchers have succeeded in entangling macroscopic objects before, but they have generally been under special circumstances, prepared in special ways, and cooled to cryogenic temperatures. In the new achievement, the diamonds were large and not prepared in any special way, the researchers said.

“It’s big enough you can see it,” Walmsley told LiveScience of the diamonds.”They’re sitting on the table, out in plain view. The laboratory isn’t particularly cold or particularly hot, it’s just your everyday room.”

Walmsley, along with a team of physicists led by Oxford graduate student Ka Chung Lee, accomplished this feat by entangling the vibration of two diamond crystals. To do so, the researchers set up an apparatus to send a laser pulse at both diamonds simultaneously. Sometimes, the laser light changed color, to a lower frequency, after hitting the diamonds. That told the scientists it had lost a bit of energy.

Because energy must be conserved in closed systems (where there’s no input of outside energy), the researchers knew that the “lost” energy had been used in some way. In fact, the energy had been converted into vibrational motion for one of the diamonds (albeit motion that is too small to observe visually). However, the scientists had no way of knowing which diamond was vibrating.

Then, the researchers sent a second pulse of laser light through the now-vibrating system. This time, if the light emerged with a color of higher frequency, it meant it had gained the energy back by absorbing it from the diamond, stopping its vibration.

The scientists had set up two separate detectors to measure the laser light — one for each diamond.

If the two diamonds weren’t entangled, the researchers would expect each detector to register a changed laser beam about 50 percent of the time. It’s similar to tossing a coin, where random chance would lead to heads about half the time and tails the other half the time on average.

Instead, because the two diamonds were linked, they found that one detector measured the change every time, and the other detector never fired. The two diamonds, it seemed, were so connected they reacted as a single entity, rather than two individual objects.

The scientists report their results in the Dec. 2 issue of the journal Science.

“Recent advances in quantum control techniques have allowed entanglement to be observed for physical systems with increasing complexity and separation distance,” University of Michigan physicist Luming Duan, who was not involved in the study, wrote in an accompanying essay in the same issue of Science.”Lee et al. take an important step in this direction by demonstrating entanglement between oscillation patterns of atoms—phonon modes—of two diamond samples of millimeter size at room temperature, separated by a macroscopic distance of about 15 cm.”

In addition to furthering scientists’ understanding of entanglement, the research could help develop faster computers called photonic processors, relying on quantum effects, said Oxford physicist Michael Sprague, another team member on the project.

“The long-term goal is that if you can harness the power of quantum phenomena, you can potentially do things more efficiently than is currently possible,” Sprague said.

from:    http://www.livescience.com/17264-quantum-entanglement-macroscopic-diamonds.html

Record Warm November Temperatures

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November 2011 a Top Ten Warmest for Some Cities

by Chris Dolce, Meteorologist
Updated: December 1, 2011 6:00 am ET
November: No Heavy Coat Needed

If you live from the Midwest to the Northeast and thought your jacket or heavy coat usage was less often than usual this November, you are right. The month will close out with a number of cities recording a top ten warmest November.

First up, check out the geeky looking map below. This graphic shows the departures from average temperatures throughout the first 28 days of the month. The darker orange and red shaded locations over the Midwest and Northeast had temperatures the farthest above average during the month. (Note: The figures for the month are computed by taking the high and low from each day and averaging them out over the course of the entire month.)

For some locations in the Northeast, this mild November comes on the heels of the historic, damaging late-October snowstorm dubbed “Snowtober”. After that storm, perhaps you thought bouts of snow and cold temperatures would be in full effect through February? That’s not the case so far.

In the next section below, we will highlight some of the cities that will end up with a top ten warmest November.

Departure from average temperatures: November 2011 (Credit: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)
November: A Top Ten Warmest

November 2011 will go down as a top ten warmest for all of the cities listed below. The rankings displayed for each location are through November 30th.

Boston, Mass. –

  • 2nd warmest November on record dating back to 1872.
  • Not only has November been warm, the period from Sept. 1 to November 29 is the warmest such period on record.

New York, N.Y. – 

Providence, R.I. – 

  • Tied as the 4th warmest November dating back to 1904.

Hartford, Conn. – 

  • 7th warmest November dating back to 1904.

Worcester, Mass. – 

  • Unofficially the warmest November dating back to 1892.

Detroit, Mich. – 

  • 5th warmest November dating back to 1874.

Cleveland, Ohio – 

  • 4th warmest November dating back to 1871.

Indianapolis, Ind. – 

Dangerous WInds Hit L.A.

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Wind storm disrupts traffic, flights and power in Los Angeles 

A portion of a broken tree is pictured following a wind storm in Pasadena, California, December 1, 2011. REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni

By Steve Gorman

LOS ANGELES | Thu Dec 1, 2011 4:39pm EST

(Reuters) – A powerful wind storm with gale-force gusts left much of the Los Angeles area strewn with toppled trees and downed power lines on Thursday, slowing rush-hour traffic and knocking out electricity to over 300,000 customers.

An hourlong power outage at Los Angeles International Airport forced nearly two dozen inbound commercial flights to be diverted to other airports, and flight delays lingered after electricity was restored at about 8 a.m. local time, LAX spokeswoman Nancy Castles said.

Utility crews were out in force, working to restore electricity and remove uprooted trees and fallen limbs that littered neighborhoods throughout the region, blocking streets in many places.

Authorities said at least one house in Los Angeles, and an apartment building and gas station in Pasadena were hit by fallen trees, but no one was reported hurt.

Janelle Brown, 38, said the house she and her husband moved into a week ago in Los Angeles’s Silver Lake neighborhood, narrowly escaped a direct hit from a large 100-year-old pepper tree that was uprooted in the middle of their backyard overnight.

“We woke up this morning, looked out the window, and realized it was gone,” she told Reuters, adding she and her husband never heard it fall.

“We lay in bed until 1:30 in the morning listening to the cracks and the pops and the wind rattling the windows, and then finally fell asleep,” she said.

Brown, a novelist, said some branches from the tree came to rest on top of her house, and “there’s a little bowing in the roof, but from what we can tell, we got lucky.”

Public schools in Pasadena and 11 other districts in San Gabriel Valley, northeast of Los Angeles, were closed for the day, though the Los Angeles Unified School District said it would remain open.

The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, the nation’s largest public utility, reported nearly 129,000 of its customers were without electricity Thursday morning.

Southern California Edison, which serves areas outside the city of Los Angeles, said outages that began Wednesday night had affected more than 213,000 homes and businesses.

Winds gusting to speeds ranging from 40 to 60 miles per hour and higher were clocked throughout the Los Angeles area starting Wednesday night and through the early morning hours of Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.

Gusts of 97 miles per hour were recorded overnight at Whitaker Peak in the San Gabriel Mountains.

The winds had largely died down by daybreak, but forecasters said blustery weather was expected to return, with sustained winds ranging from 45 to 60 miles per hour and gusts of up to 85 possible through Friday.

The Weather Service said the wind storm was produced by the combination of a low-pressure system that materialized over the California-Nevada border area and a zone of surface-high pressure originating in the Great Basin.

The advent of high winds put fire departments throughout the region on alert for a high risk of wildfires.

(Editing by Cynthia Johnston)

from:    http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/TWS-120111-damaging-winds-los-angeles.html

Eruption -Tungurahua Volcano, Ecuador

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Orange Alert after renewed eruption activity of the Tungurahua Volcano, Ecuador

Last update: December 1, 2011 at 5:06 pm by By 

Both, the Tungurahua volcano and the neighboring Sangay volcano  are belonging to the most active volcanoes of Ecuador.  Although the volcano has an almost permanent state of activity, authorities had to call an Orange alert after incandescent flows and some violent explosions.

Recent and current Activity

Tungurahua during an earlier active period – image by Armand Vervaeck taken during an earlier visit – This picture was taken from Chalet Swiss above Baños

December 1
Since this morning the intensity of emissions (gas and ash) tends to decrease, said the Geophysical Institute of Ecuador in a report.  Seismic activity associated with emanations is continuing. Ashfall and 8 minor explosions were reported in the villages surrounding the volcano. No pyroclastic flows or expulsion of incandescent rocks from the crater have been seen recently. Emergency services have told villagers to stay away from river valleys if it would be raining, as the recent pyroclastic flows can create dangerous land/mud/slides of pyroclastic material.

November 30
A total of 638 families living in three parishes in the Tungurahua volcano area received  relief by the SNGR. People living near the the volcano are used to the activity as there is always some continuing seismic activity.However, the authorities decreed on Sunday an orange alert due to the sudden increase in eruptive activity.

November 29
Various relief agencies in the province provide help to the inhabitants of Cotaló, Cusúa, Bilbao, Chacauco, Pillate and other sectors affected by the volcano into reaching evacuation trucks which will transport them to shelters in in La Paz and Riobamba.
The ‘Guadalupe’ Center which is monitoring Tungurahua reported constant explosions (windows rattled at the center)  + an ash cloud which rose to more than two kilometers.

November 28

At 02:00 on 28 November an explosion ejected incandescent material that fell on all flanks, and generated a pyroclastic flow that descended the Achupashal drainage. Starting before 0500 until 0900 an almost constant roar was heard and incandescent blocks traveled 1 km down the flanks, especially towards the W and NW.
Three pyroclastic flows were noted on the S flank.
Windows vibrated at the Tungurahua Observatory (OVT) in Guadalupe (14 km N). During the day, an ash plume rose 3 km above the crater and drifted in multiple directions. White ashfall was reported in Manzano, Choglontús (SW), Pondoa (8 km N), and Runtún (6 km NNE). In the evening incandescent blocks that were ejected 300 m above the crater rolled 400-500 m down the flanks. On 29 November an explosion detected at 0611 produced a small pyroclastic flow that traveled 500 m. Another pyroclastic flow at 0955 traveled 1 km W. Gas-and-ash plumes rose 4 km above the crater and drifted SE and W. According to a news article, people in high risk areas on the flanks, in communities such as Cusúa, Juive, Palictahua, and Manzano, evacuated voluntarily.

November 27
IG reported that increased seismicity from Tungurahua was detected at 15:40 on 27 November, and at 16:50 the seismic network recorded 4 volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Two small explosions at 17:01 and 17:05 were followed by a large explosion at 17:18.
Pyroclastic flows descended the Achupashal, Chotanpamba, and Mandur drainages on the NW and W flanks. Two more large explosions were detected at 17:31 and 17:35.
Incandescent blocks traveled 1 km down the flanks, and roaring noises and sounds resembling “cannon shots” were reported. Ashfall was reported in Manzano (8 km SW), Bilbao (8 km W), and Pillate (8 km W), ash and tephra fell in Cotaló (8 km NW), and tephra fell in Cusúa (8 km NW).
At 19:05 a pyroclastic flow descended the S and SW flanks.

Tungurahua volcano action a few years ago – picture taken by Armand Vervaeck from a cemetary at Ambato, Ecuador

Global Volcanism Program information
Tungurahua, a steep-sided andesitic-dacitic stratovolcano that towers more than 3 km above its northern base, is one of Ecuador’s most active volcanoes.

for more, and updats, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/12/01/orange-alert-after-renewed-euption-activity-of-the-tungurahua-volcano-ecuador/

The Language of Ravens

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Ravens Use ‘Hand’ Gestures to Communicate

Charles Choi, LiveScience Contributor
Date: 29 November 2011 Time: 11:11 AM ET
male raven gestures with its beak to two other ravens
The researchers found that ravens often use their beaks like hands to make gestures, such as this male raven is doing as the bird shows two of its kin an object in its beak.
CREDIT: Thomas Bugnyar

Ravens use their beaks and wings much like humans rely on our hands to make gestures, such as for pointing to an object, scientists now find.

This is the first time researchers have seen gestures used in this way in the wild by animals other than primates.

From the age of 9 to 12 months, human infants often use gestures to direct the attention of adults to objects, or to hold up items so that others can take them. These gestures, produced before children speak their first words, are seen as milestones in thedevelopment of human speech.

Dogs and other animals are known to point out items using gestures, but humans trained these animals, and scientists had suggested the natural development of these gestures was normally confined only to primates, said researcher Simone Pika, a biologist at the Max Planck Institute for Ornithology in Seewiesen, Germany. Even then, comparable gestures are rarely seen in the wild in our closest living relatives, the great apes — for instance, chimpanzees in the Kibale National Park in Uganda employ so-called directed scratches to indicate distinct spots on their bodies they want groomed.

Still, ravens and their relatives such as crows and magpies have been found to be remarkably intelligent over the years, surpassing most other birds in terms of smarts and even rivaling great apes on some tests.

“[What] I noticed when I encountered ravens for the first time is that they are, contrary to my main focus of research, chimpanzees, a very object-oriented species,” Pika said. “It reminded me of my childhood, when my twin brother and I were still little and one of us suddenly regained a favorite toy, which existence both of us had forgotten for a little while. This toy suddenly became the center of interest, fun and competition. Similar things happen, when ravens play with each other and regain objects.”

Beak gestures

To see if ravens communicated using gestures, scientists investigated wild ravens in Cumberland Wildpark in Grünau, Austria. Each bird was individually tagged to help identify them.

A male raven approaches two other ravens showing an object in its beak.
A male raven approaches two other ravens showing an object in its beak.
CREDIT: Thomas Bugnyar

The researchers saw the ravens use their beaks much like hands to show and offer items such as moss, stones and twigs. These gestures were mostly aimed at members of the opposite sex and often led those gestured at to look at the objects. The ravens then interacted with each other — for example, by touching or clasping their bills together, or by manipulating the item together. As such, these gestures might be used to gauge the interest of a potential partner or strengthen an already existing bond.

“Most exciting is how a species, which does not represent the prototype of a ‘gesturer’ because it has wings instead of hands, a strong beak and can fly, makes use of very sophisticated nonvocal signals,” Pika told LiveScience.

Origin of gestures

Ravens are known to possess a relatively high degree of cooperation between partners. These findings suggest that gestures evolved in a species that demonstrates a high degree of collaborative abilities, a discovery that might shed light on the origin of gestureswithin humans.

“Gesture studies have too long focused on communicative skills of primates only,” Pika said. “The mystery of the origins of human language, however, can only be solved if we look at the bigger picture and also consider the complexity of the communication systems of other animal groups.”

As to whether or not these findings suggest that ravens are smarter than dogs, “I am not an advocate of proposing that a given species is smarter than another one,” Pika said. “In my view, all species have adapted to distinct social and ecological settings and niches, and thus, a given species might behave in a distinct situation ‘smarter’ than another one in the same situation and vice versa. In my opinion, it is much more interesting to investigate why one species can solve a given task better than another one and how and why this behavior evolved.”

Pika and her colleagues would like to further explore what other gestures ravens use and what their meaning and function might be. Pika and Thomas Bugnyar detailed their findings online Nov. 29 in the journal Nature Communications

from:    http://www.livescience.com/17213-ravens-gestures-animal-communication.html

PPhillipines Earthquake

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Strong earthquake in the Philippines

Last update: November 30, 2011 at 1:23 am by By 

Earthquake overview : A strong earthquake occurred in the Philippines at 00:27 UTC. Preliminary data are reporting the epicenter at 152 km from Dagupan, Luzon


Shaking map Philippines November 30 earthquake – image courtesy USGS

Update : the epicenter of the earthquake is almost on top of the subduction fault line along the coast

Update : An intensity II (Phivolcs scale) has been reported in  Quezon City; Manila; Mandaluyong City; Ortigas, Pasig; Makati City; Obando, Bulacan; Baguio City

Update : Phivolcs reports a magnitude of 6.0 at a depth of 16km. The epicenter following Phivolcs is 94 km from Paluig.

Update : MMI Values and nearest cities (K stands for 1000 people) :
V    Bolitoc    3k
V    Bani    3k
V    Palauig    3k
V    Lucapon    6k
V    Ilio-ilio 2k
V    Masinloc 28k
IV    Agoo 29k
IV    Castillejos 27k
IV    Binmaley 57k
IV    Binmaley 44k
IV    Binmaley 68k
V = moderate shaking, IV = light shaking
Moderate and light shaking are seldom generating damage.

Update : 196,000 people will have experienced a moderate MMI V shaking, 1,032,000 people a light shaking and much more a weak shaking

Update : WAPMERR, the theoretical damage engine confirms our own estimates and reports to expect 0 injured and 0 killed people.

Update : A tsunami has NOT to be feared

Update : Earthquake-report.com does not expect any serious damage out of this earthquake

Update : Luckily the epicenter is at least 80 km out of the coast

Update : USGS has just disclosed the data from this earthquake. USGS reports a magnitude of 6.0

Update : EMSC reports a preliminary magnitude of 5.8 at a depth of 80 km. Other agencies are still calculating the data

to read more, and for updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/11/30/strong-earthquake-in-the-philippines/

Dr. Jeff Master’s Review of 2011 Hurricane Season

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Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:08 PM GMT on November 28, 2011 +16
Wednesday marks the final day of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, and it was another very odd year. The season featured a huge number of named storms–nineteen–tying 2011 with 2010, 1995, and 1887 as the 3rd busiest year for tropical storms. Only 2005 and 1933 had more named storms since record keeping began in 1851. However, 2011 had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. The year started out with eight consecutive tropical storms that failed to reach hurricane strength–the first time on record the Atlantic has seen that many storms in row not reach hurricane strength. We had a near-average average number of hurricanes in 2011–seven–meaning that only 37% of this year’s named storms made it to hurricane strength. Normally, 55 – 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. There were three major hurricanes in 2011, which is one above average, and the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)–a measure of the destructive potential of this season’s storms–was about 20% above average. The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic is no doubt at least partially responsible for 2011’s unusually high count of named storms, but near-average number of hurricanes and ACE. Both 2010 and 2011 had nineteen named storms, making it the second busiest 2-year period in the Atlantic behind 2004 – 2005. Even when one considers that 2 – 4 tropical storms from both 2010 and 2011 would likely have been missed before the advent of satellites, the tropical storm activity of 2010 – 2011 is still very remarkable (in 2011, Tropical Storm Franklin, Tropical Storm Jose, and the unnamed 19th tropical storm of September 1 would probably have been missed before satellite technology came along, since they were all weak, short-lived storms that did not impact land or shipping.)


FIgure 1. Tracks for the Atlantic tropical cyclones of 2011.

Another below-average hurricane season for the U.S.
For the second consecutive year, despite a near-record number of named storms in the Atlantic, the U.S. had far fewer strikes by tropical storms and hurricanes than average. Favorable steering currents steered most of the storms in 2010 and 2011 past Bermuda and out to sea. During 2010, only one tropical storm hit the U.S., despite a season with the 3rd highest number of named storms–nineteen. Only two named storms hit the U.S. in 2011: Tropical Storm Lee, which hit Louisiana with 60 mph winds, and Hurricane Irene, which hit North Carolina on August 27 with 85 mph winds, and made two additional landfalls in New Jersey and New York the next day. Tropical Storm Don hit Texas on July 29 as a tropical depression and did not count as a landfalling named storm, according to post analysis by NHC. Wind shear and dry air from the Texas drought made Don rapidly weaken before landfall on Padre Island National Seashore north of Brownsville. During the 15-year active hurricane period from 1995 – 2009, 33% of all named storms in the Atlantic hit the U.S., and 30% of all Atlantic hurricanes hit the U.S. at hurricane strength. The U.S. averaged seeing six named storms per year, with four of them being hurricanes and two being intense hurricanes. Thus, the landfall of only three named storms in a two-year period is a major departure from what happened the previous fifteen years. The past six years is the first six-year period without a major hurricane strike on the U.S. since 1861 – 1868. The last major hurricane to hit the U.S. was Category 3 Hurricane Wilma of October 2005. One caveat to keep in mind, though: Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav of 2008 both hit the U.S. as strong Category 2 hurricanes, and had central pressures characteristic of Category 3 hurricanes. Had these storms occurred more than 65 years ago, before the Hurricane Hunters, Ike and Gustav would likely have been classified as Category 3 hurricanes at landfall (assuming that few quality wind observations would have been available at landfall, which is usually the case.)


Figure 2. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak on August 25, 2011 during Hurricane Irene. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

Figure 3. The eye of Hurricane Irene as seen by hurricane hunter and wunderblogger LRandyB on August 24, 2011, when the hurricane was approaching the Bahama Islands.

The strongest, deadliest and longest-lived storms of 2011
The strongest hurricane of 2011 was Hurricane Ophelia, which peaked as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds and a central pressure of 940 mb on October 2, when it was just northeast of Bermuda. Ophelia hit Southeast Newfoundland as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds on October 3, but caused little damage. The strongest hurricane at landfall was Hurricane Irene, whose 120-mph eyewall winds raked Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, Cat Island, Eleuthera, and Abaco Island in the Bahamas. Wind gusts as high as 140 mph were reported in the Bahamas.The longest-lived storm of 2011 was Hurricane Phillipe, which lasted 15 days, from September 24 to October 8. The most damaging storm was Hurricane Irene, which caused an estimated $7.2 billion in damage from North Carolina to New England, according to re-insurance broker AON Benfield. Irene was also the deadliest storm of 2011, with 55 deaths in the Caribbean and U.S.

Figure 3. Pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecasts issued by seven major forecast groups. The average of these forecasts called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 150% of normal. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 120% of normal.

Pre-season hurricane forecasts did a decent job
The pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecasts issued by seven major forecast groups were generally decent. The average of these forecasts called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 150% of normal. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 120% of normal. Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State will be releasing their end-of-season verification and summary of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season on November 30.


Figure 4. Portlight volunteers at work in Pink Hill, North Carolina, after Hurricane Irene.

Portlight disaster relief efforts for 2011
My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, has posted a summary of their efforts during the hurricane season of 2011. Portlight mobilized in the wake of Hurricane Irene to help out in North Carolina, Delaware, and Maryland on cleanup efforts, food, and supply distribution. Portlight also provided financial assistance to survivors, including a commercial fisherwoman and single mother of two who lost her boat and home in the storm, after having been diagnosed with breast cancer two days before Irene struck. See the portlight blog for the full story; donations are always welcome.