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7.7 Earthquake Below British Columbia

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Massive earthquake below British Columbia, Canada – All advisories have now been canceled (Western US and Canada + Hawaii coasts)

Last update: October 28, 2012 at 5:12 pm by By

Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 7,7
UTC Time :  2012-10-28 03:04:08 UTC
Local time at epicenter : 2012-10-27 20:04:08 UTC-07:00 at epicenter
Depth (Hypocenter) : 17.5 km
Geo-location(s) :

  1. 139km (86mi) S of Masset, Canada
  2. 199km (124mi) SSW of Prince Rupert, Canada
  3. 288km (179mi) SW of Terrace, Canada
  4. 551km (342mi) NW of Campbell River, Canada
  5. 636km (395mi) SSE of Juneau, Alaska

2012-10-28 17:00 UTC
– THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS ENDED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT 0358 AM HST.
– All the advisories have now been ended
– Luckily, there is NO report of damage from British Columbia

2012-10-28 13:31 UTC
– Tsunami advisory is still in effect in Hawaii. We do not think big changes will occur, but people should at least stay away from the shoreline for at least several hours and until all advisories are cleared (can take many more hours)

2012-10-28 12:05 UTC

THE TSUNAMI WARNING IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.
A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT 1254 AM HST.

…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS CANCELED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM GUALALA POINT CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80

MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/ TO THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER…

THE TSUNAMI THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR ALASKA/ BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON/ OREGON OR CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER… SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE NON-DAMAGING SEA LEVEL CHANGES. AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATIONS MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

2012-10-28 10:53 UTC
THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM GUALALA POINT  CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/ TO THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER…

2012-10-28 10:44 UTC
– The max. tsunami waves so far measured at Hawaii are 76 cm high at Kahului (Maui)  (still less than expected by the weather channel). These are the most readings so far :

The video below is a very interesting interview with a scientists from NOAA. He is giving a lot of info on the tsunami waves and their behaviour in Hawaii.

2012-10-28 10:27 UTC
CBC Canada reports that  Dennis Sinnott (Canadian Institute of Ocean Science) said that a 69-centimetre wave was recorded off Langara Island on the northeast tip of Haida Gwaii, formerly called the Queen Charlotte Islands. The islands are home to about 5,000 people, many of them members of the Haida aboriginal group.
Another 55-centimetre wave hit Winter Harbour on the northeast coast of Vancouver Island, while a 12-centimetre wave was recorded in Tofino, on Vancouver Island’s west coast.

2012-10-28 09:46 UTC
TSUNAMI ADVISORY STATUS IS CANCELLED FOR BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OREGON.
TSUNAMI ADVISORY STATUS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

2012-10-28 09:46 UTC
Tsunami waves have reached parts of Hawaii. The Tsunami warning remains in effect.
Here are the first readings :

Image courtesy NOAA

2012-10-28 08:51 UTC
– NO CHANGES IN THE CURRENT SITUATION

2012-10-28 08:26 UTC
– Tsunami warning remains in effect for Hawaii (expected arrival time 10:28 PM)

2012-10-28 07:54 UTC
THE ADVISORY IS CANCELLED FOR SE ALASKA AND CONTINUES FOR BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

2012-10-28 07:27 UTC
– The earthquake has been felt as far as Edmonton, Canada which is … 1700 km east of the epicenter
– Hawaii keeps his breath for eventual tsunami waves or currents
– A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD COASTAL AREAS.
THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS.
ALL SHORES ARE AT RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE.
THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN.
EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE  CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI.
DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER.
SIMULTANEOUS HIGH TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.

2012-10-28 06:57 UTC
– The WeatherChannel reports that parts of Hawaii may see waves heights as much as 7 feet. Waikiki coast has been asked to evacuate. If the weather channel is correct, this will be a serious current heading for Hawaii
– NOAA Hawaii Tsunami report nr 5  states that :
A TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII. THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS : 1028 PM HST SAT 27 OCT 2012

2012-10-28 06:57 UTC
– No change in advisory and warning areas in Alaska Tsunami Center report nr. 8 

THE ADVISORY REGIONS ARE KEPT THE SAME. NEW OBSERVATIONS ARE ADDED BELOW

…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON FROM GUALALA POINT
CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/ TO DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/…

…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TO CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/…

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO GUALALA
POINT CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/…

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE
OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/ TO THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER…

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA…

2012-10-28 06:22 UTC
– Tsunami warning downgraded to advisory for British Columbia and Alaska
Most important elements of Alaska Tsunami Center report nr. 7 :

THE WARNING IS DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY FOR SE ALASKA AND NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. MORE OBSERVATIONS ARE INCLUDED BELOW.

…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON FROM GUALALA POINT
CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/ TO DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/…

…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA…

…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS MODIFIED TO INCLUDE THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/…

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO GUALALA
POINT CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/…

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE
OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/ TO THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER…

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA…

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ADVISORY REGIONS LISTED IN THE HEADLINE. PEOPLE IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES.
– IF IN A TSUNAMI ADVISORY COASTAL AREA MOVE OUT OF THE WATER… OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

Tsunami gauge measurements at various stations :

2012-10-28 06:19 UTC
– Hawaii tsunami report nr. 4 states :
A TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.

EVALUATION

 A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.

 A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD COASTAL AREAS. THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
 TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS. ALL SHORES ARE AT RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE. THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN. EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI. DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER. SIMULTANEOUS HIGH TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.

 THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS 1028 PM HST SAT 27 OCT 2012

2012-10-28 06:10 UTC

– The earthquake occurred 2 hours ago and various tsunami warnings and advisories are still in effect for the greater earthquake and coastal areas.
– At Langara (northern point of Haida Gwaii (epicenter island), a tsunami surge has been measured of 44 cm)
– At Hawaii the wave is estimated to arrive at 10:28 PM local time
– For those among you interested to look at live webcams, we have found a live broadcasting webcam from Hawaii – Click here to watch it. A surge of less than 1 meter will be hard to see in the dark. Some stirring water (shaking boats) are a possibility. We hear the Tsunami warning sirens howling at the webcam. Great initiative from this webcam owner to do the live streaming !

2012-10-28 05:55 UTC – Tsunami warning and advisory overview
– Warning effective for British Columbia, Alaska and Hawaii
– Advisory (1 level less than warning) for some parts of Washington, Oregon and California (see below)
What to do : if you are living at coastal areas, move to higher ground

IMPORTANT UPDATE 2012-10-28 05:48 UTC

ALASKA Tsunami Center report nr. 6

THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON.

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
   AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF
   VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION
   ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/...

...THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS MODIFIED TO INCLUDE THE COASTAL
   AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON FROM GUALALA POINT
   CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/ TO
   DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/...

...THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
   AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH
   COLUMBIA BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND
   BRITISH COLUMBIA...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
   CALIFORNIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO GUALALA
   POINT CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
   OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE
   OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/ TO THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH
   COLUMBIA BORDER...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
   ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
   SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA...

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
 A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DAMAGE
 TO THE WARNING AND/OR ADVISORY REGIONS LISTED IN THE HEADLINE.
 PEOPLE IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO
 INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS
 ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES.
 - IF IN A TSUNAMI WARNING COASTAL AREA MOVE INLAND TO
   HIGHER GROUND.

 - IF IN A TSUNAMI ADVISORY COASTAL AREA MOVE OUT OF
   THE WATER... OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

2012-10-28 05:40 UTC
– What occurred today is a typical subduction earthquake. the stress accumulates from the eastward moving Pacific plate subducting below the North American plate generates this kind of very powerful earthquakes.

2012-10-28 05:32 UTC
Tsunami advisory (no warning) extended to the border area of  Washington state

The most relevant parts of the Alaska Tsunami Center report nr. 5 (continental USA and Canada)

THE WARNING ZONES REMAIN THE SAME IN THIS MESSAGE.
AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA-
SOUTH OF THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND.

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/...

...A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE
   COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
   CALIFORNIA - OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM THE
   CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA
   BORDER...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
   ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
   SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA...

2012-10-28 05:24 UTC
A TSUNAMI WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT 0709 PM HST.
THIS UPGRADE IS DUE TO THE SEA LEVEL READINGS RECEIVED AND THE RESULTING CHANGE IN THE HAWAII TSUNAMI FORECAST.

2012-10-28 05:22 UTC
– Haida Gwaii (former Queen Charlotte Islands and epicenter of the earthquake) reports to Canadian Broadcasting that some homes have been damaged

2012-10-28 05:19 UTC
– More aftershocks are being reported. They however are less than M5, which is a good sign.
– The occurrence of a similar or even bigger earthquake than the mainshock cannot be excluded but happens very rarely.
– Earthquake-report.com does thank our many Alaska and British Colombia readers who have shared their experience with our site. Earthquake reporting can be only complete in the case of a interaction with those who felt the shaking

2012-10-28 05:07 UTC
Alaska Tsunami center report nr. 5 – Tsunami alert is still in place 
THE WARNING ZONES REMAIN THE SAME IN THIS MESSAGE.
AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA-
SOUTH OF THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND.

2012-10-28 05:02 UTC
Some relevant tweets our Carlos Robles has intercepted
–  “We were just sitting down relaxing and all of a sudden — boom! I thought it was a major landslide,” said Martynuik. “The epicentre had to be right close to us because the power went out right away. The quake seemed to last forever.”
– Tsunami ….”apparently” Sandspit got a 8 ft rise .
– CBC LeishaGrebinski just spoke w/ Ted Renaud on Langara Isl. He said quake was strong, they just exp. a swell expect another one in 20 mins

2012-10-28 04:52 UTC
Report number 4 from the Alaska tsunami center :

THE TSUNAMI HAS BEEN RECORDED WITH SMALL AMPLITUDES IN SE ALASKA. FORECASTS INDICATE HEIGHTS IN S CENTRAL ALASKA BELOW 30CM. THE WARNING AREA REMAINS THE SAME. 

2012-10-28 04:50 UTC
– The tsunami evacuation seems to work well at the moment. A lot of people (ut limited in number) have been called to evacuate for higher ground and did so in the meanwhile
– The epicenter of the 3 M5+ aftershocks is heading more to the coast. No aftershock of M6 or more so far

2012-10-28 04:46 UTC
– We repeat that the Tsunami alert is only called for portions of the British Columbia and Alaska coast. Hawaii and the greater Pacific basin have NO alert issued.
– Pacofi and Lockeport, Canada are the locations which may get tsunami waves of respectively 1.7 and 1.5 meter. Other locations are expected to get a max. of 0.3 m. (source info + graphic below : GDACS)

2012-10-28 04:40 UTC
As soon as the Tsunami alert is canceled, we will bring the news to our readers.
The tsunami alert will only affect a limited number of people. Tsunami level calculations are extremely difficult as the wave height can be different for every portion of the coast depending on the coastal floor.

2012-10-28 04:32 UTC
Some press reports are stating that the quake was not felt in Vancouver, which does not correspond with the reports we have received from our readers (see below).

2012-10-28 04:24 UTC
Based on the reports below, the shaking lasted 30 seconds to a minute, a normal shaking time for such a huge earthquake

2012-10-28 04:18 UTC
The Alaska tsunami center has just issued a third report which keeps the tsunami warning as it was mentioned before. These are the most important elements of this report :

A SMALL TSUNAMI HAS BEEN RECORDED ON A DEEP OCEAN PRESSURE SENSOR. THE WARNING REGION REMAINS THE SAME IN THIS BULLETIN.

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
   AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF
   VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION
   ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
   CALIFORNIA - OREGON - WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM
   THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER
   ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
   ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
   SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA...

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
 PEOPLE IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO
 INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS
 ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES.
 - IF IN A TSUNAMI WARNING COASTAL AREA MOVE INLAND TO HIGHER
   GROUND.

2012-10-28 04:13 UTC
– Except for the Tsunami danger, the dangerous shaking impact will be limited to approx. 2000 people who will have sustained a MMI VII, very strong shaking experience.
– 18000 people will have felt a strong MMI VI shaking and another 186000 people a moderate shaking.
– Please find the experiences of people below this page

Shaking intensities (image courtesy USGS)

2012-10-28 04:00 UTC
– About 2000 people are living within 100 km from the epicenter
– A considerable number of strong aftershocks have been striking the epicenter area

2012-10-28 03:53 UTC
– People living in coastal areas along British Colombia and Alaska should better be going for higher ground. Tsunami calculations are far from perfect and a auto-safety move for higher ground is always preferable.
– The area is merely unpopulated and the closest populated settlements are quite far from the epicenter.
– Haida Gwaii is a National Park, but should be almost without visitors at this time of the year.

2012-10-28 03:45 UTC
– Another agency, GDACS who is using data from USGS reports that : It is likely that a tsunami was generated. The maximum tsunami wave height near the coast of Lockeport will be 1.66m.

GDACS Tsunami expectation – max. tsunami height 1.66 m

2012-10-28 03:44 UTC
– THE MAGNITUDE IS UPDATED TO 7.7. THE WARNING ZONE REMAINS THE SAME.

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1 NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK 807 PM PDT SAT OCT 27 2012 …A TSUNAMI WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/… …THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA – OREGON – WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA… …THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA… RECOMMENDED ACTIONS PEOPLE IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES. – IF IN A TSUNAMI WARNING COASTAL AREA MOVE INLAND TO HIGHER GROUND. PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS MAGNITUDE – 7.1 TIME – 1904 AKDT OCT 27 2012 2004 PDT OCT 27 2012 0304 UTC OCT 28 2012 LOCATION – 52.9 NORTH 131.9 WEST 25 MILES/40 KM S OF SANDSPIT BRITISH COLUMBIA 390 MILES/628 KM SE OF JUNEAU ALASKA DEPTH – 12 MILES/19 KM TSUNAMI WARNINGS MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI WITH SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IS IMMINENT… EXPECTED OR OCURRING. WARNINGS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING ACCOMPANIED BY POWERFUL CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AND MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL. PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/ BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/10/28/massive-earthquake-with-tsunami-warning-below-the-queen-charlotte-islands-british-columbia-canada/

The Great Pyramid & Light Speed

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he Great Pyramid and the Speed of Light

October 23, 2012

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The Great Pyramid and the Speed of Light

The Great Pyramid encodes enormous amount of numerical coincidences ( pi, Phi, dimensions and movement of our planet, axial tilt, precession,  speed of light, and more…)
We can only wonder if the ancient architects were fully aware of these special numbers encoded in their design — or are these numbers simply the  result of  selecting 2 numbers (7 and 11) for proportions for the Great Pyramid???

The design of the Great Pyramid is based on the ratio 11:7.  This ratio (equal 1.571) is perfect approximation of the “squaring the circle” principle.

For the Great Pyramid, Base to Height Ratio 440/280 is exactly 11/7

Most “pyramidologists” appear to be  “chasing their tails” uncovering huge amount of “numerical coincidences” embedded in the Great Pyramid…

It is simply unbelievable, however ALL of these numerical coincidences are result of selecting just 4 numbers for the pyramid design: 7, 11 (height to base ratio), 40 (the scale factor), and the 4th key number is the value of the measuring unit: Royal Cubit = 20.62 ” = 0.524 m.

This single, fundamental design principle: 11 : 7 Base to Height Ratio  generates ALL amazing mathematical properties of the Great Pyramid:

  • the Golden Ratio Phi=1.618 (the Great Pyramid is a Golden Pyramid: length of the slope side (356) divided by half of the side (440/2 = 220) height is equal to 1.6181818… which is the Golden Ratio Phi
  • squaring the circle ratio 1.571 (base/height = 44/28 = 1.571)
  • pi=3.14159… (2 x base/height = 2 x 44/28 = 3.14286 which is very close approximation of “pi” = 3.14159…)
  • Perimeter of the square base, 4×440=1760, is the same as circumference of the circle with radius = height: 2x ”pi” x height (2x 22/7 x 280=1760)
  • The ratio of the perimeter to height of 1760/280 cubits equates to 2x pi
    to an accuracy of better than 0.05%
  • Side of the base (440) plus double height (2x 280=560) = 1,000
  • Perimeter of the square base is equal 4×440=1760 RC = 0.5 nautical mile = 1/7,200th of the radius length of the earth
  • the slop angle 51°.843
  • The Pyramid exhibits in the design both pi and by Phi,  given the similarity
    of 2/ sqrt(phi) (2 divided by the square root of Phi) with pi/2 :
  • 11/ 7 equal 1.5714
  • 2/ sqrt(89/55) equal 1.5722
  • 2/ sqrt(Phi) equal 1.5723
  • pi/ 2 equal 1.5708
  • Royal Cubit = 0.5236 m,  pi – Phi2 = 0.5231
  • and more…

Does Great Pyramid encode “fractal” value of the speed of light?

The speed of light in a vacuum is 299, 792, 458 meters per second or 983,571,056.43045 feet per second or 186,282.397 miles per second.

Base of the Great Pyramid is a square with side B = 44o Royal Egyptian Cubits.  Let’s draw two circles: one inscribed and one superscribed on the square of the base of the Great Pyramid.

 

  • Circumference of superscribed circle: 2x pi x R
  • Circumference of the inscribed circle: 2x pi x r

The difference of the circumference of both circles (lets call it C) is:

C = 2 x pi x (R – r) = 2 x pi x [ B/sqrt(2) – B/2 ] =
2x pi x B x [ 1/sqrt(2) – 1/2 ] = 1.301290285 x B

The length of the Egyptian Royal Cubit

Based on “The Pyramids and Temples of Gizeh” by W.M. Flinders Petrie. 1883.

The unit of measuring length used by the ancient architects in the construction of the Great Pyramid was the Royal Cubit.

Petrie estimated the value of the Royal Cubit using some key dimensions of the Great Pyramid:
By the base length of the Pyramid, if 440 cubits (section ’43): 20.611 ± .002
By the base of King’s Chamber, corrected for opening of joints:  20.632 ± .004 inches
By the Queen’s Chamber, if dimensions squared are in square cubits:  20.61   ± .020
By the antechamber: 20.58   ± .020
By the ascending and Queen’s Chamber passage lengths (section 149):  20.622 ± .002
By the gallery width:   20.605 ± .032

The Average value of the RC  (based on above numbers) is 20.61 inches.

It’s almost universally accepted that archaeologist Flinders Petrie’s determination of the royal cubit length at 20.632 inches, from his measurements of the King’s Chamber in the Great Pyramid of Giza, was the likely measure to survey the dimensions of that pyramid, 440 royal cubits per base side, but the experts stop there, not then letting you know that those 1,760 royal cubits which total the Great Pyramid’s base perimeter length, when multiplied by 20.632 inches, equals half a modern nautical mile, or 1/7,200th of the radius length of the earth, so there certainly is a connection.

By most accurate series of measurements Petrie concluded that the royal cubit standard for the Great Pyramid was 20.620 ± .005 inches ( 523.7 mm).

Let’s use the lower value 20.615 ” for the Royal Cubit  (allowed by the 0.005 ” accuracy):

the Royal Egyptian Cubit (RC) is 20.615 ” = 0.523621 m

B = 440RC = 9070.6″ = 755.883 feet = 230.393 m

Therefore C = 1.301290285 x B = 983.6 feet = 299.8 m

The value of C is surprisingly very close to
the  speed of light x 106

The speed of light in a vacuum is
983, 571, 056.43 feet per second =
299, 792, 458 meters per second.

Another very strange Great Pyramid  “coincidence” related to the speed of light was discovered by John Charles Webb Jr. :
Precise latitude of the centre of the Grand Gallery (inside GP) is
29° 58′ 45.28″ N = 29.9792458° N
The speed of light in vacuum, usually denoted by c, is a universal physical constant important in many areas of physics ( 299,792,458 metres /s ).

– – –

Another interesting coincidence encoded in the Royal Cubit:

  • Royal Egyptian Cubit = 0.524 m
  • pi = 3.1416
  • 3.1416 feet = 0.957 m = 1.8263 RC
  • 2x (0.957 / 0.524 ) = 2x  1.8263 = 3.6526 = 365.26 x 10-2

Number of days in a year: 365.25

Another interpretation of the above:
circumference of a a circle with diameter equal 100 feet is
2 x pi x 100 feet = 2 x pi x 1200″ =7539.8″ = 365.74 RC
(or 356.25 RC measured in King’s Chamber)

– – –

The Missing Capstone Theory

The pyramidion (capstone) found near the Red Pyramid is nearly “96 cm from the top, measured along the edge“. This (and other capstones found in Egypt) suggests that Egyptians were not making huge capstones for their pyramids. Therefore assumption that missing capstone of the Great Pyramid was huge (30 feet at the base) is wrong. It is very likely that in addition to the missing pyramidion there is a layer of stones missing as well. Therefore the capstone was much smaller than the missing part of the pyramid.

To maintain perfect slope angle such a capstone would have to have identical proportions as the whole pyramid: 7:11. If we use the “Red Pyramid” capstone to estimate possible size of the capstone from the Great Pyramid, it seems reasonable to select 2 Royal Cubits (140th of the pyramid’s height)  for its height.  The capstone’s base in this case would be 3.14286 RC  (as the result of keeping the same scale and proportions as the GP) . This is very close approximation of “pi”.

The missing capstone of the Great Pyramid was very likely 2 Royal Cubits in height (3.4267 feet = 1.0475 m ) with square base of  3.1428 Royal Cubits (5.4 feet = 1.646 m).

Read More about the missing capstone >>

Note:
440/280 = 1.5714286   (3.14286 when multiplied by 2 ).
280/440 = 0.636363636363… (0.63  number with recurring decimal)

The Revelation of the Pyramids

The Revelation Of The Pyramids takes an in depth look into one of the seven wonders of the world, the Great Pyramids of Egypt. Mystery has surrounded these epic structures for centuries with theories varying from the scientific to the bizarre. However with over thirty-seven years of in depth research taking in sites from China, Peru, Mexico and Egypt, one scientist has as at last managed first to understand and then to reveal what lies behind this greatest of archaeological mysteries: a message of paramount importance for all mankind, through time and space.

from:    http://blog.world-mysteries.com/science/the-great-pyramid-and-the-speed-of-light/

Cancer, Inflammation, Chemo, and Questions

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How Tumors Exploit Gut Flora to Fuel Growth, and the Surprising Finding that Chemotherapy Boosts Resistant Cancer

October 24 2012

By Dr. Mercola

Could your gut flora play a role in cancer growth? According to recent research, the answer is a tentative yes.

Findings published in the journal Nature1 report the discovery of microbial-dependent mechanisms through which some cancers mount an inflammatory response that fuels their development and growth. These findings provide new insight into how cancer cells can hijack your body’s inflammatory reaction by exploiting microbial-dependent immune cells.

tory at-a-glance

  • Researchers have found a microbial-dependent mechanism through which some cancers mount an inflammatory response that fuels their development and growth. They suggest inhibiting the inflammatory cytokines produced might slow cancer progression and improve response to chemotherapy
  • Probiotics tend to downregulate at least one of several cytokines involved in inflammatory processes, so probiotics may turn out to be an important player in helping to inhibit cytokine production
  • New research shows chemotherapy can damage healthy cells in such a way that they begin secreting a protein that not only protects cancer cells and promotes their survival, but also causes the tumors to be resistant to further chemotherapy treatment
  • Despite the 40-year “war on cancer”, drug-based “advances” are not making a dent in the rise of cancer prevalence, as the conventional approach fails to address lifestyle-related issues such as optimizing food intakes, lack of sun exposure, DNA-disrupting wireless technologies, lack of sleep, obesity, and chemical exposures of all kinds

from:    http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2012/10/24/tumors-exploit-gut-flora.aspx?e_cid=20121024_DNL_art_1

New Mexico Cuts Philosophical Objections from Vaccine Exemptions

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State Cuts Philosophical Objections from Vaccine Exemptions

By Dr. Mercola

The ethical principle of informed consent means that you have the human right to be fully informed about the benefits and risks of a medical intervention and be free to make a voluntary choice about whether or not to take the risk. The right to make an informed, voluntary vaccination choice for yourself (or your minor child) is an inalienable human right because vaccination, like any medical intervention, involves taking a risk that could cause harm or even death.

There is no guarantee that receiving a vaccine (or any other drug) will not cause a complication and lead to serious injury – or that it will protect you from the disease it is supposed to prevent.

But across the United States, people are fighting for their right to choose not to be injected with vaccines against their will because vaccine exemptions have come  under constant attack.

SUMMARY:

  • State health officials in New Mexico changed the vaccine exemption form so that philosophical objections are no longer an option. The New Mexico Department of Health simply said they changed the form because the prior one allowed for “misinterpretation of the law.” From now on, parents will be required to state their religious beliefs in order to qualify for a non-medical vaccine exemption for their children to attend school.
  • California, Washington and Vermont also recently made it harder for parents to opt out of vaccinations.
  • Those who promote forced vaccination often cite incorrect data as “support,” such as the false statement that recent pertussis outbreaks could be traced back to unvaccinated populations.
  • The right to make an informed, voluntary vaccination choice for yourself (or your minor child) is an inalienable human right because vaccination, like any medical intervention, involves a risk that could cause harm or even death.

For the rest of the story, go to:   http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2012/10/23/vaccine-exemption-requirements.aspx?e_cid=20121023_DNL_art_2

UFO SIghtings — UK ANd Dallas

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As always, do your research!

Check it out here:

http://in5d.com/mass-ufo-sightings-in-uk-tx.html

This is what Gregg had to say:

Mass UFO Sightings In Texas And UK

by Gregg Prescott, M.S.
www.in5d.com
www.maya12-21-2012.com
www.HolisticCancerResearch.com

Last updated on October 22, 2012 at 12:06 am EDT by in5d Alternative News

In the past 24 hours, mass UFO sighting videos were uploaded to YouTube.  The first one was uploaded on October 20, 2012 and occurred in Mansfield, UK while the second video was uploaded on October 21, 2012 and was recorded the previous day from a car near downtown, Dallas, Texas.

Mass UFO Sightings In Texas And UK | in5d Alternative News | in5d.com |

There were no additional comments from the person who video recorded the Mansfield UFO, but the person who recorded the Texas UFO stated the following.  When asked where the video was recorded, the YouTube user by the name of Raul_Molinar stated, “Downtown 30 y 35 como a las 7pm.  I was traveling west on I 30.” When asked who recorded the video, Raul stated, “I did yesterday COMO VAN A SER AVIONES?? Veanlo bien.”  “How could they be airplanes?  I saw them clearly.”)

 

The L’Aquila Earthquake Trial Results

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The Verdict of the l’Aquila Earthquake Trial Sends the Wrong Message

Rubble from a collapse house covered a car after the 2009 l’Aquila earthquake in Italy. Image: Alessandro Giangiulio / Flickr.

By this time, many of you have seen the verdict for the people on trial over the 2009 l’Aquila earthquake. Judge Marco Billi sentenced the seven scientists, engineers and officials to 6 years in prison – 2 years more than the prosecution suggested – over the manslaughter charges stemming from the earthquake that killed over 300 people. The trial has been a flashpoint for geoscientists as many have seen it as a trial over the idea that geologists should be able to “predict” earthquakes. This is somewhat misleading as the prosecution was actually claiming the seven on trial were accused of “having carried out a superficial analysis of seismic risk and of having provided false reassurances to the public.” This doesn’t mean they got a “prediction” wrong, but rather that they didn’t fully understand the risk for l’Aquila, thus put people’s lives in danger. However, this whole trial, in its misguided attempt to find someone to blame for a blameless geologic event, sends the wrong message about how to deal with hazard assessment and mitigation.

 

Now, I’m not going to rehash the whole trial – you can see some excellent summaries in Nature News and The New York Times. However, let’s get this straight. Say what you will about whether the seven adequately did their job in mitigating against the disaster, but convicting them of manslaughter? That is what makes this case so egregious. If you look up a definition of manslaughter (and it varies from country to country), this likely falls under the criminally negligent variety, where “a defendant intentionally puts himself in a position where he will be unaware of facts which would render him liable.” This suggests that the seven on trial caused the 308 deaths from the l’Aquila earthquake by ignoring the facts presented. People who survived the earthquake and the prosecution claim that the scientists should have known a large earthquake was coming because there had been many small earthquakes that preceded it (so-called “foreshocks“, which have not been proven to be predictive of a larger earthquake). However, the scientists and officials instead said that the earthquakes were releasing energy on local faults, reducing the threat of an earthquake. Chris Rowan does a great job explaining why both of these positions are wrong. It all boils down to the idea of what could actually be deduced from the facts in hand. Should government officials and scientists have proclaimed that an earthquake would occur in days when no data existed that confirmed this? (And no, saying that the earthquake did occur is not evidence – that is hindsight.)

So, we’re back in the same quandry we often find ourselves when it comes to geologic hazard mitigation – prediction versus probability. Indeed, the city of l’Aquila does lie in a region of high seismic hazard for Italy. This was not a fact that was hidden from the public by government officials – in fact, most people who live in Italy should know that earthquakes are not uncommon across the country. However, even with swarms of small earthquakes, there is no way that any seismologist could say that yes, a large earthquake will happen within a week*. That is the realm of prediction. Alternatively, they should not rule out the possibility that a large earthquake could occur in a region of high seismic hazard. So, the answer is, yes, at some point, a large earthquake will occur here. It isn’t satisfying, but it is what the data will bear. However, that isn’t what people want to hear. They want to know “should I leave my house tomorrow? Tuesday?” Without such an imposed deadline, many times the perceived threat just fades into the background of everyday life, like car accidents or fires.

Why did this trial occur if the science really says there wasn’t anything that could be done? I think it is clearly so that people can have someone to blame. The 7 on trial did say something that can be perceived as reassuring mere days before the tragedy, so clearly, they are the reason those 308 people died. Have a big, flashy show trial and charge them with something frightful. Now, that’ll get people’s attention and solve this problem … forever! Of course it won’t – in fact, it might make proper hazard assessment and discussion even more difficult in Italy because people will be afraid that if they get it wrong, they too will go to prison. It might lead to more “false positives” that erode the public’s confidence in the ability to judge the hazard risk in areas around the country. You’ve create a situation where hazard geoscientists are caught between a literal rock and a hard place – don’t emphasize enough and something happens, you go to prison; overemphasize and cause panic, you lose the public’s trust. I hope this doesn’t lead to a culture of “geologic malpractice”, where any discussion of hazards and mitigation are scrutinized after the fact so that lawyers can go after whomever they want to place the blame. Even more startling, there are threats that the Italian government will cut the positions of many scientists in the INGV who are monitoring active volcanoes and other hazards, leaving the country even more vulnerable. It is a perfect recipe for an epic tragedy to occur.

If you do live in a region of high geologic hazard, then you should be prepared for such eventualities, and if you can’t make the preparations, then you should be making sure your government does. By that I mean infrastructure improvements, emergency planning and response, evacuation plans – all the things that you, personally, can’t tackle. You can prepare your home and family as much as you can, but there has to be buy-in across all levels. However, when it comes down to it, a lot of the responsibility falls on the public to be better educated about the hazards they face. Some of that needs to come from the officials and scientists in charge – better outreach, clearer statements, more research – but some of this needs to come from the grassroots where children learn science and hazards. I do know one thing: Witch hunts to find someone to blame for a tragedy have never brought anyone back.

* It is sad that this case also involves the charlatans who claim to be able to “predict” earthquakes. If Giampaolo Giuliani hadn’t bandied about his unsubstantiated claims about radon being used to predict the earthquake – which caused undue panic and uncertainty that the government tried to quell – would these seven be potentially headed to jail?

from:   http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/10/the-verdict-of-the-laquila-earthquake-trial-sends-the-wrong-message/#more-134908

The SUn’s Magnetic Froth

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MAGNETIC FROTH: Sunspot AR1598 has quieted down since unleashing an X1-class solar flare on Oct. 23rd. It might be the calm before the storm. The sunspot is still large and apparently potent, as shown in this image captured by amateur astronomer Sergio Castillo of Inglewood,California:

Castillo used a telescope capped with a “Calcium K” filter tuned to the light of ionized calcium atoms in the sun’s lower atmosphere. Calcium K filters highlight the bright magnetic froth that sometimes forms around a sunspot’s dark core. AR1598 is very frothy indeed.

Magnetic froth does not necessarily herald an explosion, but it does guarantee a photogenic sunspot

fr/spaceweather.com

Costa Rica Earthquake

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Very strong earthquake in Costa Rica

Last update: October 24, 2012 at 4:39 pm by By

Very strong earthquake in Costa Rica
A magnitude 6.6 earthquake at a depth of 35km (USGS) struck the same area where the M7.6 hit a month ago. The values given by USGS differs a lot from the ones that gives Ovsicori, the geological survey from Costa Rica, saying it was a magnitude 5.8 at a depth of 6km. We’ll wait to see if they change their values.
There are reports of fallen objects and broken windows in the zone of La Cruz, Guanacaste and Sámara but, luckily, there’s no heavy damage or injured people.
Update- USGS lowered the magnitude from 6.6 to 6.5 but at a more dangerous depth of 20km.
Update- Some areas in San Ramon in Alajuela and Guanacaste were without electricity.

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/10/23/major-earthquakes-list-october-24-2012/

Destructive POtential of Hurricane Sandy

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Hurricane Sandy pounding Jamaica, may hit U.S. this weekend; TS Tony forms
Published: 2:21 PM GMT on October 24, 2012

Hurricane warnings are flying for Jamaica and Eastern Cuba, as an intensifying Hurricane Sandy plows north-northeast at 13 mph towards landfall. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm, and measured surface winds of hurricane strength–75 to 80 mph–in the storm’s northeast quadrant near 9:25 am EDT. Sandy’s pressure at the time of the 9:28 am center fix was 973 mb, and the temperature in the eye had warmed 2°C since the 7:48 am fix, a sign of strengthening. Intermittent rain squalls from Sandy have been affecting Jamaica since Monday night, and Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 2.12″ of rain from Sandy as of 9 am EDT. Winds in Jamaica have been below 20 mph as of 10 am EDT, but will start to rise quickly in the next few hours. The Hurricane Hunters found a large 55 mile-diameter eye that was open to the WNW this morning, and it is likely that Kingston will receive high winds of 55 – 65 mph from the western eyewall, which will cause considerable damage to Jamaica’s capital. The eastern tip of Jamaica will likely see the eye pass overhead, and will receive the strongest winds. The eye is beginning to appear on visible satellite loops, and Sandy is showing an increasing degree of organization as it closes in on Jamaica. Sandy is the tenth hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season, which is now tied for eighth place for most hurricanes in a year since record keeping began in 1851.


Figure 1. Morning microwave satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy taken at 8:45 am EDT. The large 55-mile diameter eye was just south of Jamaica. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Near-term forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the moderate range and ocean temperatures will be a warm 28°C through Thursday morning, which will favor intensification. However, Sandy doesn’t have much time left over water before it encounters the high mountains of Jamaica this afternoon, which should interrupt the intensification process. The strongest Sandy is likely to be at landfall in Jamaica is a 90 mph Category 1 hurricanes. After encountering Jamaica, Sandy won’t have time to re-organize much before making landfall in Eastern Cuba near 10 pm EDT tonight, and the strongest the storm is likely to be then is a 90 mph Category 1. Passage over the rugged terrain of Cuba should weaken Sandy’s winds by 20 – 30 mph, and it will be difficult for the storm to regain all of that lost strength in the face of the high wind shear of 20 – 30 knots it will encounter Thursday and Friday. I expect that Sandy will be a 60 – 70 mph tropical storm as it traverses the Bahamas.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy taken at 11:45 am EDT Tuesday, October 23, 2012. At the time, Sandy had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic and New England
On Friday, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast and trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic. The Central Atlantic trough may be strong enough to pull Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the official NHC forecast, and the 06Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, 00Z Canadian, and 06Z HWRF models (00Z is 8 pm EDT, and 06Z is 2 am EDT.) However, an alternative solution, shown by the 00Z ECMWF, 06Z GFDL, and 06Z NOGAPS models, is for Sandy to get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 – 70 mph. Such a storm would likely cause massive power outages and over a billion dollars in damage, as trees still in leaf take out power grids, and heavy rains and coastal storm surges create damaging flooding. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. A similar meteorological situation occurred in October 1991, when Hurricane Grace became absorbed by a Nor’easter, becoming the so-called “Perfect Storm” that killed 13 people and did over $200 million in damage in the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The Wednesday morning 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFS model was done 20 times at lower resolution with slightly varying initial conditions of temperature, pressure, and moisture to generate an ensemble of forecast tracks for Sandy (pink lines). These forecasts show substantial uncertainty in Sandy’s path after Friday, with a minority of the forecasts taking Sandy to the northeast, out to sea, and the majority now predicting a landfall in the Northeast or mid-Atlantic states of the U.S. The white line shows the official GFS forecast, run at higher resolution.

When might Sandy arrive in the mid-Atlantic and New England?
The models vary significantly in their predictions of when Sandy might arrive along the U.S. coast. The 06Z NOGAPS model predicts Sandy’s heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Saturday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF model predicts that Sandy’s rains won’t affect North Carolina until Sunday, with the storm making landfall in New Jersey on Monday night. The GFDL model is in-between these extremes, taking Sandy ashore in Delaware on Monday morning. The trough of low pressure that Sandy will be interacting with just moved ashore over the Western U.S. this morning, and got sampled by the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of land-based balloon-borne radiosondes for the first time. One of the reasons the models have been in such poor agreement on the long-term fate of Sandy is that the strength of this trough has not been very well known, since it has been over the ocean where we have limited data. Now that the trough is over land, it will be better sampled, and the next set of 12Z model runs, due out this afternoon between 2 pm – 4pm EDT, will hopefully begin to converge on a common solution. I’ll have an update this afternoon once the 12Z model runs are in.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Tony.

Tropical Storm Tony forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Storm Tony formed Tuesday night in the middle Atlantic, becoming the nineteenth named storm of this very busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Tony has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, but is battling dry air , wind shear, and ocean temperatures that have fallen below 26°C. Tony will not threaten any land areas, and will likely be dead by Thursday night.

Tony’s place in history
Tony is the Nineteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1887, 1995, 2010, and 2011 for third busiest Atlantic season since the HURDAT historical data base began in 1851. With five more weeks left before the November 30 end of hurricane season, 2012 is likely to move into second place for most named storms before the year is out, as all six prior Atlantic hurricane seasons with nineteen or more named storms have had at least one named storm form after October 24. Here, then, is a list of the seven busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
2012 (19 named storms)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)

It’s pretty remarkable that we’ve now had three straight years with nineteen named storms in the Atlantic. But how many of these storms might not have been counted in the pre-satellite era (before 1960)? Here’s a list of weak and short-lived storms from 2010 – 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era:

2012:
Tropical Storm Joyce
Tropical Storm Oscar
Tropical Storm Tony

2011:
Tropical Storm Jose
Tropical Storm Franklin

2010:
Tropical Storm Gaston

Even if we correct for the possible over-count of approximately two named storms per year during the 2010, 2011, and 2012 hurricane seasons, compared to the pre-satellite era, there is nothing in the HURDAT data base that compares to the type of activity we’ve seen the past three years. One likely contributor to the unusual string of active years is the fact hurricane season has gotten longer, perhaps due to warming ocean temperatures. I discussed in a 2008 blog post that Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, “Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?” He concluded that yes, there is a “apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high”.

Jeff Mastersfrom:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html