ROSAT — Down, but Missing

Defunct German Satellite Hits Earth in Fiery Death Dive

Denise Chow, SPACE.com Staff Writer
Date: 23 October 2011 Time: 03:45 AM ET
ROSAT satellite

 

This still from an animation by Analytical Graphics, Inc., depicts the re-entry of Germany’s defunct ROSAT satellite in October 2011.
CREDIT: Analytical Graphics, Inc.

This story was updated at 11:18 p.m. ET.

An old German satellite plunged to Earth today (Oct. 22) after languishing in a dead orbit for more than a decade, but officials do not yet know where it fell.

The 2.7-ton Roentgen Satellite, or ROSAT, slammed into Earth’s atmosphere sometime between 9:45 p.m. EDT (0145 GMT Sunday) and 10:15 p.m. EDT (0215 GMT Sunday), according to officials at the German Aerospace Center.

“There is currently no confirmation if pieces of debris have reached Earth’s surface,” German aerospace officials said in a statement.

While the 21-year-old satellite broke apart as it re-entered Earth’s atmosphere, German aerospace officials estimated that up to 30 pieces totaling 1.9 tons (1.7 metric tons), consisting mostly of the observatory’s heat-resistant mirrors and ceramic parts, could survive the fiery trip and reach the surface of the planet.

Based on ROSAT’s orbital path, these fragments could be scattered along a swath of the planet about 50 miles (80 kilometers) wide, German aerospace officials have said.

The satellite, which weighs 5,348 pounds (2,426 kilograms), was launched into orbit in June 1990 to study X-ray radiation from stars, comets, supernovas, nebulas and black holes, among other things. The satellite was originally designed for an 18-month mission, but it far outlived its projected lifespan. [Photos of Doomed ROSAT Satellite]

In 1998, the ROSAT’s star tracker failed and its X-ray sensors pointed directly at the sun. This caused irreparable damage to the satellite, and it was officially decommissioned in February 1999.

to read more, go to:    http://www.livescience.com/16680-falling-german-satellite-rosat-death-dive.html

Earthquake Predictions 10/26-11/11 fr/Dr. RJ Roberts

Table 48a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

 from October 26-November 9* 2011 (UTC)

REGIONS
USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in
alphabetical order

Forecast
Magnitude
Ranges
& Dates (UTC)

Observed
Maximum
Magnitude
in each region

Accuracy compared to mid range (%)

Observed
Date (UTC) &     Location

Alaska USA
Southern Region
within ≈600 km of a newcenter at Lat 59.6 and Lon -148.9, about 185 km S of Anchorage.
M3.3-M5.3 
expected about Oct 28+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Vancouver Is. and Seattle Regions CANADA/USA
New zone
within ≈525 km radius ofTofino, B.C. at Lat 49.159 and Lon -125.874
M2.6-M4.6 
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
California –Oregon USABorder Region
New zone
Coast & Off Coast
within ≈550 km of a center
at Lat 41.29 Lon -125.95
160 km west of Orick, CA
M3.1-M5.1 
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
   
California  1.
New zone‘Northern and Central CA’
(& Western Nevada)
within ≈450 km radius ofRedwood Valley, CAat Lat 39.265 and Lon -123.204. Includes events off the coast near Eureka, CA, in the Triple Junction Region.
**see table footnote
M2.7-M4.7 
expected about Nov 3+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
California  2.
Central, Southern, & Baja California Regions
New zone
Within ≈400 km of Beaumont, CA, at Lat 33.930 and Lon -116.978
**see table footnote
M2.8-M4.8 
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
New Madrid Region
Central USA
New zone
Within ≈550 km of a center at Springfield, Missouri,
Lat 37.214 Lon -93.293 Extends to Central Oklahoma
M2.0-M4.0 
expected about Nov 4+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Hawaii USA
Within 500 km of a center at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5
on the Island of Hawaii
M2.4-M4.4 
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)

     
Caribbean  1.
Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands Region
within ≈225 km of Fajardo, Puerto Rico, at Lat 18.326 & Lon -65.652,
M2.6-M4.6 
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Caribbean  2.
Haiti & Dominican Republic,SE Cuba & Jamaica Region
within ≈600 km of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, at Lat 18.54  & Lon -72.334
M3.4-M5.4 
expected about Nov 1st+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
   
Bucharest
Romania Region
New zone, Europe 
within ≈250 km of Bucharest at Lat 44.44 & Lon 26.093. Includes part of Northern Bulgaria.
M2.8-M4.8 
expected about Nov 3+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Chile         1. 
Northern Region
within≈600 km of a center point 37 km NNE of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
at Lat -23.34 Lon -70.29
(zone revised 3rd July 2011)
M3.8-M5.8 
expected about Nov 5+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
   
Chile         2.Central Region
within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359 
M4.1-M6.1 
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
China*
Within 650 km of Liangshan, Sichuan
at Lat 27.880 Lon 102.264
*Forecasts for China will be for the largest quake expected in the FULL lunar month
(FM + NM periods).

More exact timing cannot be forecast because of inadequate amounts of data readily available from China
No forecast       
Colombia Region
within 600 km of ARUSI, Colombia, Lat 5.583 Lon  -77.484, on the coast
Extends from Panama City region to Western Venezuela
M3.6-M5.6 
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Fiji-Tonga
Region
within ≈500 km of
a center point at
Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4
M4.3-M6.3 
expected about Nov 5+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Greece
New zone
within 300 km of a center point at ITEA, Greece (Lat 38.435 & Lon 22.422)
M3.3-M5.3
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) 
   
Guatemala
Coastal Region
within ≈300 km of a center point at Lat 14.07 Lon -91.92 offshore Guatemala, extending NW to southern Chiapas, Mex., & SE to El Salvador.
M3.3-M5.3
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     

 

El Salvador -Costa Rica Region
includes southeast Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras,
Nicaragua, Costa Rica
within ≈
500 km of a center point at La Trinidad, Nicaragua
(Lat 12.566 Lon -86.178)
Zone revised 19th April.
M4.2-M6.2
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) 
Indonesia  1.Sumatra
Northern Region 

within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra
Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67
M4.3-M6.3
expected about Nov 5+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
   
Indonesia  2.Sumatra 
Southern Region
within ≈350 km of Bengkulu Utara, Southern Sumatra, centered at Lat -2.67 and Lon 101.34 (revised region on 18th April, at 1205 hrs)
M4.3-M6.3
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
   
Indonesia  3.Sunda StraitSouthern Sumatra to Java Region 
includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java,
within ≈450 km from
a center in Sunda Strait
at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762
M3.8-M5.8
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Italy Region
within ≈500 km of a center in the Tyrrhenian Sea at Lat 40.28 Lon 11.88
(now excluding Alpine Northern Italy and Bosnia/ Montenegro Regions across the Adriatic Sea)
M3.1-M5.1
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Japan        1.
Hokkaido Region
& Northernmost Honshu Region 

within ≈500 km from
Yubetsu, Hokkaido
Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62   **see table footnote
M4.6-M6.6
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
   
Japan        2.
Honshu – Northern Region
within ≈500 km of the M9.0 epicenter off East Coast of Honshu
at Lat 38.322 Lon 142.369**see table footnote
M4.1-M6.1
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Japan        3.Honshu – Southern Region
within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya
at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040**see table footnote
M4.5-M6.5
expected about Nov 3+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)

 

     
Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan 
(and part of Southern Xinjiang, China)
New zone
within ≈550 km of a NEW CENTRE near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Tajikistan, 66 km W of Kashgar, Xinjiang, China
at Lat 40.58 Lon 77.286
M4.7-M6.7
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) 
Mexico
Southern Region
within ≈575 km of Tlaxiaco, Oaxaca, Mexico, at Lat 17.280 Lon -97.671
M4.0-M6.0
expected about Oct 31+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
New Britain Region, PNG
within 400 km of a center
at KImbe, NB, at Lat -5.548 Lon 150.140
M4.1-M6.1
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)

 

     
New Zealand
“Northern Region”
within ≈400 km of Taupo, North Island, New Zealand Lat -38.687 Lon 176.07,
including Nelson region and North tip of South Island
**see table footnote
M3.9-M5.9
expected about Oct 30+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
New Zealand
Southern Region
within 500 km from
Christchurch, South Island
Lat -43.527, Lon 172.622
**see table footnote
M3.8-M5.8
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
New Zealand
Lower South Island
New zone
within ≈450 km of Queenstown at Lat -45.030 and Lon 168.66
**see table footnote
M3.9-M5.9
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Pakistan
Islamabad Regionwithin ≈425 km of
Islamabad, Pakistan
(Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07)
(includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)
M3.8-M5.8
expected about Nov 3+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) 
     
Peru Region
North to South
within ≈1000 km of LIMA center, Lat -12.045 and
Lon -77.028
M3.7-M5.7
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Philippines Region
Philippines Region
within ≈600 km
of a center point at LABO,
Lat 14.15 Lon 122.673
M4.0-M6.0
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Samoa/Tonga
within ≈350 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617
M4.3-M6.3
expected about Oct 31+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Solomon Is’-
Bougainville Region
within ≈600 km of center
at Lat -8.41 Lon 158.66
M4.5-M6.5
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Spain and Portugal –
Southern Regions
Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco 
within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567
M2.6-M4.6
expected about Oct 30+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) 
     
Taiwan Region
within 225 km of M7.7 center (1999) at Lat 23.77 and Lon 120.98
M3.5-M5.5
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     
Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Region

includes cities like Kathmandu, New Delhi, and Islamabad
New zone
within ≈900 km of a Tibetan center located
at Lat 32.28 Lon 81.98

M3.8-M5.8
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Turkey
within ≈425 km of a center at INSTANBUL, Turkey, at
Lat 41.005 Lon 28.976
(region includes most of Western & Central Turkey, plus regions of Aegean and Black Seas)
M2.8-M4.8
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
   
Vanuatu
New zone
within ≈350 km from a center at Lat -19.182 and Lon 168.270, 160 km S of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu
M4.7-M6.7
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
     

 

More on the 7.2 Turkey Earthquake

Understanding the 7.2 magnitude earthquake in East Turkey (October 23, 2011)

Last update: October 24, 2011 at 1:11 am by By 

Tectonic explanation of what happened

Turkey is a tectonically active country that experiences frequent destructive earthquakes. On a broad scale, the seismtectonics of the region near the October 23, 2011 earthquake are controlled by the collision of the Arabian Plate and Eurasian plates; at the latitude of this event, the Arabian plate converges with Eurasia in a northerly direction at a rate of approximately 24 mm/yr. West of the October 23, 2011, earthquake tectonics are dominated by strike-slip faulting on the East (in southern Turkey) and North (in northern Turkey) Anatolian fault zones. These large, translational fault systems extend across much of central and western Turkey and accommodate the western motion of the Anatolian block as it is beingsqueezed by the converging Arabian and Eurasian plates.

Shaking map October 23, 2011 Ercis – Van earthquake

In the area of Lake Van and further east, tectonics are dominated by the Bitlis Suture Zone (in eastern Turkey) and Zagros fold and thrust belt (toward Iran). The October 23, 2011 earthquake occurred in a broad region of convergence beyond the eastern extent of Anatolian strike-slip tectonics. The focal mechanism of today’s earthquake is consistent with oblique-thrust faulting similar to mapped faults in the region.

Seismic Hazard map courtesy USGS

This earthquake is a reminder of the many deadly seismic events that Turkey has suffered in the recent past. The devastating Izmit earthquake of 1999 (M = 7.6) broke a section of the North Anatolian Fault 1000 km to the west of the October 23 event and killed 17,000 people, injured 50,000, and left 500,000 homeless. Approximately 70 km from this earthquake a M7.3 earthquake occurred on November 11, 1976 destroying several villages near the Turkey and Iran border and killing several thousand people.
A M7.8 earthquake struck Erzincan in 1939, killing an estimated 33,000 people.

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/10/24/understanding-the-7-2-magnitude-earthquake-in-east-turkey-october-23-2011/

Incoming CME

CME IMPACT: A CME hit Earth’s magnetic field on Oct. 24th at approximately 1800 UT (02:00 pm EDT). Acording to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the impact caused a strong compression of Earth’s magnetic field, allowing solar wind to penetrate all the way down to geosynchronous orbit for a brief period between 19:06 UT and 19:11 UT. Earth-orbiting spacecraft could have been directly exposed to solar wind plasma during that time.

The impact also sparked a geomagnetic storm, underway now. Geir Øye sends this picture from Ørsta, Norway:

“The sky was brightly illuminated by auroras this evening,” says Øye. “The picture, above, was taken at 19.20 UT [just after the most extreme compression of the magnetosphere].”

High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras as Earth’s magnetic field continues to reverberate from the CME impact. The best time to look is usually during the hours around local midnight.

fr/spaceweather.com

Mobile Phones and Tumors—You Decide

Biggest Ever Study Shows No Link Between Mobile Phone Use and Tumors

ScienceDaily (Oct. 20, 2011) — There is no link between long-term use of mobile phones and tumours of the brain or central nervous system, finds new research published online in the British Medical Journal  

In what is described as the largest study on the subject to date, Danish researchers found no evidence that the risk of brain tumours was raised among 358,403 mobile phone subscribers over an 18-year period.

The number of people using mobile phones is constantly rising with more than five billion subscriptions worldwide in 2010. This has led to concerns about potential adverse health effects, particularly tumours of the central nervous system.

Previous studies on a possible link between phone use and tumours have been inconclusive particularly on long-term use of mobile phones. Some of this earlier work took the form of case control studies involving small numbers of long-term users and were shown to be prone to error and bias. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) recently classified radio frequency electromagnetic fields, as emitted by mobile phones, as possibly carcinogenic to humans.

The only cohort study investigating mobile phone use and cancer to date is a Danish nationwide study comparing cancer risk of all 420,095 Danish mobile phone subscribers from 1982 until 1995, with the corresponding risk in the rest of the adult population with follow-up to 1996 and then 2002. This study found no evidence of any increased risk of brain or nervous system tumours or any cancer among mobile phone subscribers.

So researchers, led by the Institute of Cancer Epidemiology in Copenhagen, continued this study up to 2007.

They studied data on the whole Danish population aged 30 and over and born in Denmark after 1925, subdivided into subscribers and non-subscribers of mobile phones before 1995. Information was gathered from the Danish phone network operators and from the Danish Cancer Register.

Overall, 10,729 central nervous system tumours occurred in the study period 1990-2007.

When the figures were restricted to people with the longest mobile phone use — 13 years or more — cancer rates were almost the same in both long-term users and non-subscribers of mobile phones.

The researchers say they observed no overall increased risk for tumours of the central nervous system or for all cancers combined in mobile phone users.

They conclude: “The extended follow-up allowed us to investigate effects in people who had used mobile phones for 10 years or more, and this long-term use was not associated with higher risks of cancer.

“However, as a small to moderate increase in risk for subgroups of heavy users or after even longer induction periods than 10-15 years cannot be ruled out, further studies with large study populations, where the potential for misclassification of exposure and selection bias is minimised, are warranted.”

to read more, go to:    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/10/111020191848.htm

Plate Tectonics & Earth’s Magnetic Field

Plate Tectonics May Control Reversals in Earth’s Magnetic Field

ScienceDaily (Oct. 21, 2011) — Earth’s magnetic field has reversed many times at an irregular rate throughout its history. Long periods without reversal have been interspersed with eras of frequent reversals. What is the reason for these reversals and their irregularity? Researchers from CNRS and the Institut de Physique du Globe(*) have shed new light on the issue by demonstrating that, over the last 300 million years, reversal frequency has depended on the distribution of tectonic plates on the surface of the globe. This result does not imply that terrestrial plates themselves trigger the switch over of the magnetic field. Instead, it establishes that although the reversal phenomenon takes place, in fine, within Earth’s liquid core, it is nevertheless sensitive to what happens outside the core and more specifically in Earth’s mantle.

This work is published on 16 October 2011 in Geophysical Research Letters.

Earth’s magnetic field is produced by the flow of liquid iron within its core, three thousand kilometers below our feet. What made researchers think of a link between plate tectonics and the magnetic field? The discovery that convective liquid iron flows play a role in magnetic reversals: experiments and modeling work carried out over the last five years have in fact shown that a reversal occurs when the movements of molten metal are no longer symmetric with respect to the equatorial plane. This “symmetry breaking” could take place progressively, starting in an area located at the core-mantle boundary (the mantle separates Earth’s liquid core from its crust), before spreading to the whole core (made of molten iron).

Extending this research, the authors of the article asked themselves whether some trace of initial symmetry breakings behind the geomagnetic reversals that have marked Earth’s history, could be found in the only records of large-scale geological shifts in our possession, in other words the movements of continents (or plate tectonics). Some 200 million years ago, Pangaea, the name given to the supercontinent that encompassed almost all of Earth’s land masses, began to break up into a multitude of smaller pieces that have shaped Earth as we know it today. By assessing the surface area of continents situated in the Northern hemisphere and those in the Southern hemisphere, the researchers were able to calculate a degree of asymmetry (with respect to the equator) in the distribution of the continents during that period.

In conclusion, the degree of asymmetry has varied at the same rhythm as the magnetic reversal rate (number of reversals per million years). The two curves have evolved in parallel to such an extent that they can almost be superimposed. In other words, the further the centre of gravity of the continents moved away from the equator, the faster the rate of reversals (up to eight per million years for a maximum degree of asymmetry).

What does this suggest about the mechanism behind geomagnetic reversals? The scientists envisage two scenarios. In the first, terrestrial plates could be directly responsible for variations in the frequency of reversals: after plunging into Earth’s crust at subduction zones, the plates could descend until they reach the core, where they could modify the flow of iron. In the second, the movements of the plates may only reflect the mixing of the material taking place in the mantle and particularly at its base. In both cases, the movements of rocks outside the core would cause flow asymmetry in the liquid core and determine reversal frequency.

* — Laboratoire de Physique Statistique of ENS (Ecole Normale Supérieure/CNRS/UPMC/Université Paris Diderot) and the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (CNRS/IPGP/Université Paris Diderot)

from:  http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/10/111021084539.htm

CME Heads for Mars

fr/spaceweather.com

SPACE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MARS: A bright CME blasted off the sun yesterday, Oct. 22nd, and it appears to be heading for Mars. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab expect the cloud to reach the Red Planet on Oct. 26th (forecast track). A brief discussion of what CMEs can do to Mars follows this SOHO image of the eruption:

Mars has a unique response to solar storms shaped by the planet’s strange magnetic topology. Unlike Earth, which has a global magnetic field, Mars is patchily covered by dozens of “magnetic umbrellas”–remnants of an over-arching planetary field that decayed billions of years ago. When Mars gets hit by a CME, the resulting magnetic storms take place in the umbrellas. Circumstantial evidence collected by Mars Global Surveyor in the 1990s suggests that the tops of the umbrellas light up with bright ultraviolet auroras during such storms. Because the structures are distributed around the planet, these auroras can appear even at the equator.

Mars rovers and satellites should be alert for aurora equatorialis on Oct. 26th.

Bonus: Magnetic umbrellas are at the heart of one of Mars’s greatest mysteries: What happened to the atmosphere? Billions of years ago, the air on Mars was thick enough to protect vast expanses of water on the planet’s surface. Now, however, the atmosphere is 100 times thinner than Earth’s and the surface is bone dry. Some researchers believe that magnetic storms in the umbrellas could rip parcels of atmosphere away from Mars and propel air-filled magnetic bubbles into space. In this way, space weather could be directly responsible for the desiccation of the Red Planet.

Turkey —- Strong Earthquake

Very strong damaging earthquake in eastern Turkey – 200 prisoners escaped in Van

Last update: October 23, 2011 at 7:18 pm by By 

Image courtesy www.haberler.com – click on the picture for the photo gallery

Update: There have been 104 aftershocks over M2.7 so far. 22 aftershocks over M4. 4 aftershocks over M5.

Important Update 19:07 UTC: 87 deaths and 1000 injuries is the estimate at the moment. (Ercis = 60, Van = 25, other localities = 2). This is expected to rise substantially.

Update
– Van Prison : 200 inmates escapedapparently grabbing the opportunity of earthquake.
– According to the news from Agencies, 38 provinces have send 1275 search and rescue personnel.
– Kandilli Observatory ELER says taking into account the number of buildings that become uninhabitable = 3200-3400, severely damaged buildings = 600 and completely collapsed buildings =  50; 500-700 deaths is the approximate estimate. News from rural locations has not been collected but damage is estimated at around 60-70 percent.

Update 18:58 UTC:  The Turkish government is sending skilled SAR  personnel (Search and rescue) from the other provinces to Van. The Van airport is till operational what facilitates transport to the earthquake zone. On top of that much equipment like ambulances, tents, medical personnel, etc. Turkey is well organized to deal with earthquakes.

Update 18:21 UTC:  – The weather outlook tonight is mixed. It is not raining or snowing but thetemperatures will be at freezing point. As people will prefer to stay in the open air (to scared to go inside for eventual very strong aftershocks), they may have a night with almost no sleep.
– As the night has fallen in Turkey (it is now 21:21 in Turkey) limited news facts are coming through.
– The death toll is unchanged since many hours at 85 but will certainly increase within the next 4 to 24 hours. A lot of people are still buried under the debris of the collapsed houses.
– We cannot reach the server from the local Ercis newspaper anymore
– NATO stands ready to assist Turkey  if needed

Update:  Doctors from Ercis State Hospital reported that the number of the injured patients is close to 1000. Many patients are kept in the hospital’s parking lot and the garden in tents.

Update:  The Armenian President sent an message of condolences to the President of the Republic of Turkey Abdullah Gül regarding the earthquake that occurred in the Van province. Armenia is located at a relatively short distance from the earthquake area and people in Armenia were very frightened by the shaking (see I have Felt It reports below).

Update: Germany has offered help to Turkey after an earthquake hit the eastern province of Van
The German Green Party called on the international community to provide fast and “unbureaucratic” support for rescue workers.

New casualty Update:   85 people are now reportedly killed during this earthquake (25 in Van and 60 in Ercis)

Update:   – A lot of people are leaving the cities and are heading for family in the rural areas. They fear the narrow streets with medium rise apartment buildings.
– Israel has offered to help Turkey with this disaster. It is unknown that Turkey has accepted this offer, as the 2 countries had a lot of differences in the recent past. In a later message Turkey declined the offered aid in saying that Turkey will deal with it internally.

for more information, videos, and updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/10/23/very-strong-dangerous-earthquake-in-eastern-turkey/

Holding Up for the First Amendment

Naomi Wolf

Bestselling Author, The End of America: Letter of Warning to a Young Patriot

The First Amendment and the Obligation to Peacefully Disrupt in a Free Society

Posted: 10/22/11 04:03 PM ET

Mayor Bloomberg is planning Draconian new measures to crack down on what he calls the “disruption” caused by the protesters at Zuccotti Park, and he is citing neighbors’ complaints about noise and mess. This set of talking points, and this strategy, is being geared up as well by administrations of municipalities around the nation in response to the endurance and growing influence of the Occupation protest sites. But the idea that any administration has the unmediated option of “striking a balance,” in Bloomberg’s words, that it likes, and closing down peaceful and lawful disruption of business as usual as it sees fit is a grave misunderstanding — or, more likely, deliberate misrepresentation — of our legal social contract as American citizens.

Some kinds of disruption in a free republic are not “optional extras” if the First Amendment governs the land, as it does ours, and are certainly not subject to the whims of mayors or local police, or even DHS. Just as protesters don’t have a blanket right to do everything they want, there is absolutely no blanket right of mayors or even of other citizens to be free from the effect of certain kinds of disruption resulting from their fellow citizens exercising First Amendment rights. That notion, presented right now by Bloomberg and other vested interests, of a “disruption-free” social contract is pure invention — just like the flat-out fabrication of the nonexistent permit cited in my own detention outside the Huffington Post Game Changers event this last Tuesday, when police told me, without the event organizers’ knowledge and contrary to their intentions, that a private entity had “control of the sidewalks” for several hours. (In fact, the permit in question — a red carpet event permit! — actually guarantees citizens’ rights to walk and even engage in political assembly on the streets if they do not block pedestrian traffic, as the OWS protesters were not.)

I want to address the issue of “disruption,” as Bloomberg is sending this issue out as a talking point brought up on Keith Olbermann’s Coundown last night: the neighbors around Zuccotti Square, says Bloomberg, are feeling “disrupted” by the noise and visitors to the OWS protest, so he is going to crack down to “strike a balance” to address their complaints. Other OWS organizers have let me know that the Parks Department and various municipalities are trying to find a way to eject other protesters from public space on a similar basis of argument.

Please, citizens of America — please, OWS — do not buy into this rhetorical framework: an absolute “right to be free of disruption” from First Amendment activity does not exist in a free republic. But the right to engage in peaceable disruption does exist.

Citizens who live or work near protest sites or marches have every right to be free of violence from protesters and they should never be subjected to destruction of property. This is why I am always saying to OWS and to anyone who wants to assemble: be PEACEFUL PEACEFUL PEACEFUL. Be respectful to police, do not yell at them; sing, don’t chant; be civil to pedestrians and shop owners; don’t escalate tensions; try to sit when there is tension rather than confront physically; be dignified and be nonviolent.

But the First Amendment means that it actually is not up to the mayor or the police of any municipality, or to the Parks Department, or to any local municipality to prohibit public assembly if the assembly is peaceful but disruptive in many ways.

Peaceful, lawful protest — if it is effective — IS innately disruptive of “business as usual.” That is WHY it is effective.

The Soviet Union was brought down by peaceful mass protest that blocked the streets and filled public squares. Many white residents of Birmingham Alabama in the 1960s would have said it was very disruptive to have all these African Americans marching through Birmingham or protesting the murder of children in churches. The addresses by Dr. King on the Mall were disruptive of the daily life of D.C. King himself marched without permits when permits were unlawfully applied. It is disruptive to sit at a whites-only counter and refuse to move and be covered with soda and pelted with debris and dragged off by police. It disrupted the Birmingham bus system for African Americans in the Civil Rights movement to organize a bus boycott. It is disruptive when people refuse to sit at the back of the bus.

When Bonus Marches — thousands of unemployed and desperate former veterans who had been promised and denied their bonus checks in the Depression, which they needed to feed their families — camped out for months on the Mall in D.C. and sat daily (when this was possible) on the steps of Congress, they won, eventually, because of the disruption. Some of the power of real protest, which is peaceful and patient and civil but disruptive, comes from the emotional power of the human face-to-face: all those Congresspeople had to look those hungry men in the eyes on their way to legislate the decision about the bonus.

Most of us need to remember, or learn for the first time (since this information is usually concealed from us) that the First Amendment, and the Constitution in general, supersedes all the laws of municipalities in violation of the constitution, as stated in the 1925 Gitlow v. New York ruling. So the First Amendment supersedes the restrictive permit laws now being invoked against protesters. The First Amendment was designed to allow for disruption of business as usual. It is not a quiet and subdued amendment or right.

Indeed, our nation’s founding was a series of rowdy and intense protests, disrupting business as usual for tax collectors and mercenaries up and down the eastern seaboard. Even after the establishment of the new nation massive, highly disruptive protests of various laws, Congressional actions, and even of foreign policy were absolutely standard expressions of political speech, and whether they liked the opinions expressed or not, these protests were spoken of by Jefferson, Benjamin Franklin, Washington and others — some of whom themselves were the subjects of these protests — as part of the system they had set in place working, and the obligation of American citizens.

Dr. King, when asked about disruption, said that the disruption caused by peaceful protest is good and healthy in a society, because it is the result of festering problems that need to be addressed and that are buried being brought into light to be dealt with constructively.

But I would want to remind OWS, and any protesting group, that peaceful and dignified disruption of business as usual is very different from violence, anarchy or rioting, which must always be avoided. This is why I keep telling OWS and others: be peaceful. Don’t march in a militaristic way. Don’t cover your faces or let anyone with you cover their faces. Bring old people. Bring kids. Bring instruments, form bands of musicians and singers. Don’t fight. Don’t destroy property.

If neighbors complain about mess, bring brooms (as the Egyptians did) and clean up, not just the park but the whole neighborhood. Bake cookies FOR the neighbors. Be the good examples of civil society that you want to spread. Bring whole families (good job with that family sleepover in Zuccotti Park last night). I would go further: emulate the Civil Rights movement and wear your Sunday best at key times when you protest. Wear suits and dresses when it is practical, or wear red, white and blue when conditions are rougher. Bring American flags. Bring the Constitution. Don’t give the narrators any excuse to marginalize you because of the visuals or because of any individuals’ erratic or anarchic behavior.

to read more, go TO:    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/naomi-wolf/occupy-wall-street-bloomberg-free-speech-right-to-disruption-_b_1026535.html

 

 

October 23-29

Overall Color for the Week:    Light Lime Green

So, if you were not aware of it yet, you will be finding more and more that the veils keep getting thinner and thinner.  Along with those little guys on the stairs will come smells, sounds, vibrations, and even really, really real stuff coming through.  There is no fear in any of this, rather when these things happen, take a moment to see where you are, what you are doing, and try to get a sense of why your NOW has attracted this energy.  You might be surprised to find out what it is.  It can also give you an indication of how who you are, what you are doing and being right now fits into the larger plan, the path, the unfolding that you chose when you agreed to step into this turn of the Wheel.  iI you are one of those who finds themselves trapped within a job, a relationship, a community in which you are not feeling yourself fulfilled or valued, know that this week will give you opportunities to see things for what they are and to make choices as to where you want to go from there and what you want to do.  Around you, there will be people and animals making choices for themselves, choices to transition, choices to make major life and/or path changes.  Allow for that.  Know that they are honoring themselves.  We all have schedules and timetables.  And  priorities.  This is the time to become very clear on your priorities. Continue reading →