Author Archives: marcia

New Light On Human Origins

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(These kinds of things just add more questions to the whole question of origins)

African fossils put new spin on human origins story

By Jonathan AmosScience correspondent, BBC News

Professor Chris Stringer, with the help of a cast of a fossil skull, describes the similarities that this species has with modern humans

The ancient remains of two human-like creatures found in South Africa could change the way we view our origins.

The 1.9-million-year-old fossils were first described in 2010, and given the species nameAustralopithecus sediba.

But the team behind the discovery has now come back with a deeper analysis.

It tells Science magazine that features seen in the brain, feet, hands and pelvis of A. sediba all suggest this species was on the direct evolutionary line to us – Homo sapiens.

“We have examined the critical areas of anatomy that have been used consistently for identifying the uniqueness of human beings,” said Professor Lee Berger from the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg

“Any one of these features could have evolved separately, but it is highly unlikely that all of them would have evolved together if A. sediba was not related to our lineage,” the team leader informed BBC News.

A. sediba hand (L.Berger/Uni of Witwatersrand)The female’s right hand is missing only a few bones

It is a big claim and, if correct, would sideline other candidates in the fossil record for which similar assertions have been made in the past.

Theory holds that modern humans can trace a line back to a creature known as Homo erectus which lived more than a million years ago. This animal, according to many palaeoanthropologists, may in turn have had its origins in more primitive hominins, as they are known, such asHomo habilis or Homo rudolfensis.

The contention now made for A. sediba is that, although older than its “rivals”, some of its anatomy and capabilities were more advanced than these younger forms. Put simply, it is a more credible ancestor for H. erectus, Berger’s team claims.

The sediba specimens were unearthed at Malapa in the famous Cradle of Humankind World Heritage Site, just to the northwest of Jo’burg.

to read more, go to:    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14824435

Mt. Cleveland Dome Continues to build

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MOUNT CLEVELAND VOLCANO CONTINUES BUILDING MASSIVE DOME
GW RASTOPSOFF, ALASKA NATIVE NEWS

PUBLISHED 09/07/2011 – 7:18 A.M. AKST
CHUGINADAK ISLAND, ALASKA-Mount Cleveland, a strato-volcano perched on Chuginadak island, has had its Volcano Alert status raised back up to “Watch” and its Aviation code re-raised to “Orange.”
This comes as observations of the volcano yesterday that the small lava dome in the summit crater has resumed growth and now fills the floor of the crater.
A persistent thermal anomaly has been observed since September 3, probably marking the timing of resumed lava dome growth. The size of the dome as of August 30 when it appeared to have stopped growing was approximately 262 feet in diameter. The current dome is approximately 394 feet in diameter. If dome growth continues, lava flows onto the flanks of the volcano may develop but would not be hazardous to aviation. The presence of the lava dome increases the possibility of an explosive eruption, but does not necessarily indicate that one will occur. Short-lived explosions could produce an ash cloud that exceeds 20,000 ft above sea level. These events can occur without warning and may go undetected in satellite imagery for hours.
The team at the Alaska Volcano Observatory were unsure on September 2nd, whether the 6.8 earthquake had disturbed the apparent rest of the volcano. But, satellite information began to trickle in on the next day as the first of the anomalies since the down-grade of the volcano made itself known. That information had the volcano obscured by cloud cover so no determination could be made then. It wasn’t until yesterday that a better view of the summit of the volcano could be seen.
Although no connection has been made, the 6.8 earthquake and its numerous after-shocks felt on and after September 2nd, may very well have been responsible for the current activity at Mount Cleveland.
There was another after-shock from the September 2nd quake again early this morning at 2:36 am measuring 4.4 magnitude.

Tropical Storm Nate

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Tropical Storm Nate is going to be one to watch over the next several days

Published on September 8, 2011 5:10 am PT
– By Richard McMillan – Writer
– Article Editor and Approved – Warren Miller



(TheWeatherSpace.com) — Tropical Storm Nate is located in the Southern Gulf of Mexico and could actually veer off the official track.

The National Hurricane Center has placed a track on Tropical Storm Nate. Tropical Storm Nate’s track moves north and then west right into Mexico, where it dies.

TheWeatherSpace.com Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin is open to a second scenario.

“While NHC’s track is valid, there is also another alternative. This alternative brings it towards the Northern Gulf of Mexico where Tropical Storm Lee affected. This is a plausible option and it will need to be watched because a trough to the north is present which may lead Nate northward, not westward where NOAA has him.”

All NOAA models point to the westward track that NHC has so the Gulf of Mexico northward track will be a shot in the dark from Martin.

It could go either way. Nate is just developing and forecasters have a long time to pinpoint a track for it. All residents on the Gulf Coast need to stay tuned for further updates and tracking map information from TWS.

fr/http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/TWS-09_08_2011_tropicalstormnate.html

fr/Martin Thoughts on Winter Forecast

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Interesting take on the whole question of long term forecasting, particularly at this time when so much is changing, the abnormal has become normal, and anomalies are routine.

2011-2012 Winter Forecast from TheWeatherSpace.com released

Published on September 8, 2011 3:35 am PT
– By Kevin Martin – Senior Meteorologist
– Article Editor and Approved – Warren Miller


Click for larger image

(TheWeatherSpace.com) — Winter forecasting is probably the most useless forecasting one can do and I’ll give you the reason why.

Every year hundreds of weather forecasters shoot out forecasts for snow in the Northeast. Why? Snow happens all the time during the Winter!

The truth of the matter is that TheWeatherSpace.com believes producing such forecasts are useless. So the 2011-2012 forecast for winter is sometimes cold, sometimes warm, sometimes snowy, sometimes icy, sometimes windy, sometimes dry, sometimes rainy, and sometimes snowy.

Winter forecasts are as useless as long range hurricane forecasts. We just do not need them. What people really care about is the accuracy in the next three to five days, that is it.

Sure, farmers rely on long range forecasts but no one is 100% accurate in a winter forecast. There are times when people forecast Southern California in a La Nina to have dry and warm conditions and yet Los Angeles gets blasted by cold air, thunderstorms, low elevation snow, and above average precipitation.

Winter season cannot be forecast and the best thing we can do is take what comes at us and warn for what we see. Sometimes it will snow, other times it will not. The winter seasons have troughs and ridges which change each week to a different scenario.

This is not meant to be a joke to you from TheWeatherSpace.com, but a real thing to think about. Do we need long range forecasts when it changes each week? In my eyes we do not so let us take and forecast what is in reality, three, five, seven, and ten days down the line
.

fr/http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/TWS-09_08_2011_longrange.html/

New Delhi Earthquake

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4.2 magnitude earthquake in the New Delhi – Haryana area, India + videos

Last update: September 7, 2011 at 9:55 pm by By 

Earthquake overview : After a long 30 minutes of receiving I Have Felt It reports from concerned New Delhi people we could finally report that a magnitude 4.3 earthquake struck close to New Delhi.

Update 21:49 UTC : There are still NO reports of damage or injuries so far.  Although we are not really expecting major damage from the shaking (the shaking lasted only about 10 seconds), we would not be surprised to see houses and buildings with cracks, shattered tiles, etc when daylight arrives in this very populated area with a lot of badly constructed brick houses..  So far however, no signs of any minor damage.

Update 21:48 UTC : Delhi is among thirty important cities in India that fall into high risk seismic zone whileSrinagar is among places at very high risk of earthquakes, the government said.

to read more, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/09/07/strong-5-8-earthquake-in-india/

Texas Wildfires

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Central Texas wildfire destroys nearly 800 homes

APBy JIM VERTUNO – Associated Press | AP 

BASTROP, Texas (AP) — Firefighting crews started Wednesday to gain control of a wind-stoked blaze that has raged unchecked across parched Central Texas for days, leaving hundreds of charred properties in its wake and causing thousands of people to flee.

As the crisis unfolded, Gov. Rick Perry flew off to a Republican presidential debate in California as authorities commanded operations fighting the disaster.

At least two people have died in the wildfire, which destroyed nearly 800 homes and blackened about 45 square miles (116 square kilometers) in and around the city of Bastrop, outside Austin, the state capital.

The Texas Forest Service said Wednesday that blaze had consumed 785 homes, making it the most catastrophic of the fires that have erupted in the past week across Texas. One of the most devastating wildfire outbreaks in state history has caused four deaths and pulled the state’s firefighting ranks to the limit.

But Bastrop County Judge Ronnie McDonald also sounded an optimistic tone, saying firefighters had a “good night” and that no new structures were lost overnight in the battle to contain the 33,000-acre (13,350-hectare) blaze about 25 miles east of Austin. Containment remained at 30 percent.

The forest service said it responded to a total of 19 new fires Wednesday totaling 1,490 acres (600 hectares) across the state, bringing the count over the past week to more than 170 fires consuming more than 130,000 acres (52,600 hectares).

Texas Task Force 1, an elite search team that was sent to New York following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and to New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, will be assisting in Bastrop.

The team has dogs that can help look for people trapped in debris, Chief Bob McKee told The Associated Press. “We also have human remains canines that would scent on deceased persons or animals,” McKee said.

Crews finally got a reprieve Tuesday from winds pushed in by Tropical Storm Lee that whipped the blaze into an inferno over the weekend. Texas Forest Service spokeswoman April Saginor said the lighter winds were assisting firefighters in their efforts.

“Even though the fuels are critically dry, the grass is dry and the relative humidity is still pretty low, they were able to take advantage of lower winds,” Saginor said.

Perry cut short a presidential campaign trip to South Carolina to deal with the crisis, and on Tuesday toured a blackened area near Bastrop.

to read more, go to:http://news.yahoo.com/central-texas-wildfire-destroys-nearly-800-homes-161533970.html

 

Two Massive Solar Flares

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Sun Unleashes Massive Solar Flares in One-Two Punch

Mike Wall, SPACE.com Senior Writer
Date: 07 September 2011 Time: 12:30 PM E
Sun unleashes massive solar flare
This image taken by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory watching the sun shows a powerful solar flare (center right) just minutes after it erupted on 6:20 p.m. EDT (2220 GMT) on Sept. 6, 2011.
CREDIT: NASA/SDO/GSFC

This story was updated at 8:48 p.m. EDT.

Just as many Americans got back to work after the long Labor Day weekend, the sun jolted to life as well, unleashing a massive solar flare just one day after another sun storm sent a stream of particles racing toward Earth.

The X-class solar flare — the most powerful type of sun storm— erupted at 6:12 p.m. EDT (2212 GMT) on Tuesday (Sept. 6) and hit its peak strength eight minutes later, according to a space weather update by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The flare occurred less than 24 hours after another less intense but still dramatic solar storm.

Several different satellites watched the action unfold, including NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, which constantly records high-definition videos of the sun in several different wavelengths. [Photo of the X-class solar flare]

The Tuesday event registered as an X2.1-class solar flare, while Monday’s storm topped out at a still-powerful M5, NOAA officials said. Strong solar flares are classified according to a three-tiered system: X-class flares are the most powerful, M-class are of medium strength and C-class are the weakest.

September solar storms

Researchers are still taking the measure of the big Tuesday sun storm. It may also have produced a coronal mass ejection (CME) aimed at Earth, researchers said, but as of Tuesday evening it was too early to tell.

CMEs are massive clouds of solar plasma that can streak through space at up to 3 million mph (5 million kph). CMEs that hit Earth can wreak havoc on our planet, causing disruptions in GPS signals, radio communications and power grids.

to read more, go to:    http://www.livescience.com/15933-sun-unleashes-massive-solar-flares.html

Unknown Extinct Humanoid DNA Lives On

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Humans Had Sex Regularly With Mysterious Extinct Relatives in Africa

Charles Q. Choi, LiveScience Contributor
Date: 05 September 2011 Time: 03:32 PM ET
neanderthal family
A new study of the human genome reveals modern humans interbred not only with Neanderthals but also with an extinct group of relatives in Africa.
CREDIT: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Our species may have bred with a now extinct lineage of humanity before leaving Africa, scientists say.

Although we modern humans are now the only surviving lineage of humanity, others once roamed the Earth, making their way out of Africa before our species did, including the familiar Neanderthals in West Asia and Europe and the newfound Denisovans in East Asia. Genetic analysis of fossils of these extinct lineages has revealed they once interbred with modern humans, unions that may have endowed our lineage with mutations that protected them as we began expanding across the world about 65,000 yeas ago.

Now researchers analyzing the human genome find evidence that our species hybridized with a hitherto unknown human lineage even before leaving Africa, with approximately 2 percent of contemporary African DNA perhaps coming from this lineage. In comparison, recent estimates suggest that Neanderthal DNA makes up 1 percent to 4 percent of modern Eurasian genomes and Denisovan DNA makes up 4 percent to 6 percent of modern Melanesian genomes.

“We need to modify the standard model of human origins in which a single population transitioned to the anatomically modern state in isolation — a garden of Eden somewhere in Africa — and replaced all other archaic forms both within Africa and outside Africa without interbreeding,” researcher Michael Hammer, a population geneticist at the University of Arizona in Tucson, told LiveScience. “We now need to consider models in which gene flow occurred over time.”

Haplotype hints

Hammer and his colleagues gathered DNA samples from the Center for the Study of Human Polymorphisms in Paris and sequenced about 60 regions of the human genome that apparently have no function. These genes are less subject than functional DNA to change as a result of recent evolutionary pressures driving the survival of the fittest; in such a way, they can give a clearer view of how populations might have mixed or not in the past.

The investigators focused on three populations that presented a good sample of the geographic and cultural diversity of sub-Saharan Africa — Mandenka farmers in western Africa, Biaka Pygmies in west-central Africa, and San Bushmen of southern Africa — looking for unusual patterns that suggested ancient interbreeding with other lineages. This included a hunt for long haplotypes, or sets of DNA sequences, not seen in other modern human groups, the idea being that while short haplotypes could potentially be explained by a few chance mutations within these modern human populations, comparatively long haplotypes were instead likely inherited from a significantly different lineage.

“If interbreeding occurs, it’s going to bring in a whole chromosome,” Hammer explained. Although this genetic contribution would have dwindled over time, remnants would still exist as shorter, unusual fragments, and “by looking at how long they are, we can get an estimate of how far back the interbreeding event happened.” (The longer these odd haplotypes are, the more recently they occurred, having less time to get diminished by other genetic inputs.)

New Light on the Black Death

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Molecular Clues Hint at What Really Caused the Black Death

Wynne Parry, LiveScience Senior Writer
Date: 07 September 2011 Time: 12:25 PM ET
A depiction of the black death from a 15th century Bible.

The Black Death arrived in London in the fall of 1348, and although the worst passed in less than a year, the disease took a catastrophic toll. An emergency cemetery in East Smithfield received more than 200 bodies a day between the following February and April, in addition to bodies buried in other graveyards, according to a report from the time.

The disease that killed Londoners buried in East Smithfield and at least one of three Europeans within a few years time is commonly believed to be bubonic plague, a bacterial infection marked by painful, feverish, swollen lymph nodes, called buboes. Plague is still with us in many parts of the world, although now antibiotics can halt its course.

But did this disease really cause the Black Death? The story behind this near-apocalypse in 14th century Europe is not clear-cut, since what we know about modern plague in many ways does not match with what we know about the Black Death. And if plague isn’t responsible for the Black Death, scientists wonder what could’ve caused the sweeping massacre and whether that killer is still lurking somewhere.

Now, a new study using bone and teeth taken from East Smithfield adds to mounting evidence exhumed from Black Death graves and tantalizes skeptics with hints at the true nature of the disease that wiped out more than a third of Europeans 650 years ago.

This team of researchers approached the topic with open minds when they began looking for genetic evidence of the killer.

“Essentially by looking at the literature on the Black Death there were several candidates for what could have been the cause,” said Sharon DeWitte, one of the researchers who is now an assistant professor of anthropology at the University of South Carolina.

Their first suspect: Yersinia pestis, the bacterium that causes modern plague, including bubonic plague.

The speed of plague

In 1894, Alexander Yersin and another scientist separately identified Y. pestis during an epidemic in Hong Kong. Years later the bacterium was given his name. Yersin also connected his discovery to the pestilence that swept Europe during the Black Death, an association that has stuck.

One problem, however, is that compared to the wildfire-like spread of the Black Death, the modern plague moves more leisurely. The modern plague pandemic began in the Yunnan Province of China in the mid-19th century, then spread to Hong Kong and then via ship, to India, where it exacted the heaviest toll, and to San Francisco in 1899, among many other places.

The disease that caused the Black Death is believed to have traveled much quicker, arriving in Europe from Asia in 1347, after the Golden Horde, a Mongol Army, catapulted plague-infected bodies into a Genoese settlement near the Black Sea. The disease traveled with the Italian traders and later appeared in Sicily, according to Samuel Cohn, a professor of medieval history at the University of Glasglow and author of “The Black Death Transformed: Disease and Culture in the Early Renaissance Europe” (Bloomsbury USA, 2003).

to read more, go to:   http://www.livescience.com/15937-black-death-plague-debate.html

Tropical Storm Update

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TD 14 likely to become Maria; new Gulf of Mexico system brewing

Tropical Depression Fourteen formed yesterday from a strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa early this week, and is headed west-northwest towards an encounter with the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Satellite loops show a large a steadily organizing system with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, good upper-level outflow to the north and west, and some respectable low-level spiral bands beginning to form. TD 14 is probably a tropical storm now, and is very likely to be named Tropical Storm Maria later today. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next five days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, TD 14 should generally show a strengthening trend. Curiously, most of the intensity forecast models show little strengthening of TD 14, so NHC is keeping their intensity forecast lower than is typical for a storm in these conditions at this time of year.
The track forecasts for TD 14 from the various models agree that the storm will affect the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, though there are some differences in forward speed, resulting in some uncertainty whether the storm will arrive at the islands as early as Friday night, or as late as Saturday afternoon. After it passes the Lesser Antilles, TD 14 has the usual amount of high uncertainty in its 5 – 7 day track forecast. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have. The ECMWF and UKMET models prefer a more southerly track for TD 14 through the Bahamas towards the U.S. East Coast, while the GFS, NOGAPS, and HWRF models predict a more northwesterly track, with a potential threat to Bermuda. It’s too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart’s track history pages suggesting TD 14 has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 14.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee on Monday, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico’s Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, and this disturbance has been designated Invest 96Lby NHC. Latest visible satellite loops do not show that 96L has a closed surface circulation yet, but buoy and surface observations along the coast of Mexico suggest that there may be a large-scale counter-clockwise circulation present over the Bay of Campeche. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 100 miles to the northwest of the suspected center of 96L, were northeast at 27 mph at 6:50 am CDT this morning. Water vapor satellite loops show that here is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of 96L, and this dry air may interfere with 96L’s development. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled for this afternoon into 96L.

Most of the computer models develop 96L into a tropical depression in the next 1 – 2 days, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, I give 96L an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next tow days, a bit higher than the 60% probability NHC is going with. Steering currents are weak in the Bay of Campeche, making for a lot of uncertainty in where 96L might go. The only model predicting a U.S. landfall is the ECMWF, which predicts 96L might hit between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. A more popular solution is for the storm to meander in the Bay of Campeche for many days, and eventually make landfall on the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico. None of the models is hinting at a track towards Texas, and the intense dome of high pressure associated with their record drought and heat wave will tend to discourage any tropical cyclones from making a Texas landfall over the coming seven days.

Hurricane Katia 
Hurricane Katia continues to the northwest as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that dry air has eaten into the southwest side of the storm. The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia’s cone of uncertainty, and Katia’s outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. Bermuda may see a few rain showers from Katia, but the storm will not cause hazardous weather there. The main impact of Katia will be a multi-day period of high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.


Figure 2. GOES-13 image of Hurricane Katia and the remains of Tropical Storm Lee, taken at 11:45 am EDT Tuesday September 6, 2011. At the time, Katia was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.