Author Archives: marcia

Typhoon & Tropical Storm Update fr/Dr. Masters

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Typhoon Roke batters Japan; Ophelia forms in the Central Atlantic
Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:28 PM GMT on September 21, 2011 +9
Typhoon Roke hit Japan near Hamamatsu at 14:00 JST Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. Roke brought sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 83 mph to the Tokyo airport at 5:25 pm local time, and a wind gust of 89 mph was reported at Shizuhama Airbase. Roke has dumped heavy rains of 155 mm (6.20″) at Hamamatsu and 125 mm (4.86″) at Tokyo. Damage due to flooding from Roke’s heavy rains will likely be the main problem from Roke, as the soils over much of Japan are saturated from the passage of Tropical Storm Talas during the first week of September. Talas was a very slow moving storm, and brought extreme rainfall amounts of over six feet to some portions of Japan. Roke brought winds less than 25 mph to the damaged Fukishima-Dai-Iche nuclear plant northeast of Tokyo, and heavy rains of 189 mm (7.50″) toHirono, located 8 miles south of the plant.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Roke as it made landfall at 14:00 JST on September 21, 2011. The typhoon brought a large area of rainfall of 50 mm/hr (2″/hr) to Japan. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Roke taken at 3:55 UTC on Wednesday, September 21, 2011. At the time, Roke was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Ophelia forms in the Atlantic
Tropical Storm Ophelia formed last night in the Central Atlantic from the tropical wave (Invest 98L) we’ve been tracking this week. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia is suffering the classic symptoms of high wind shear, with the low level center of circulation exposed to view, and the storm’s heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation. An analysis of wind shear from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 – 30 knots of wind shear due to strong upper level west-southwesterly winds affecting Ophelia. We don’t have any ship, buoy, or hurricane hunter observations of Ophelia’s winds, but an ASCAT pass from 7:27 pm EDT last night found top winds of 45 mph in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Ophelia will be passing south of buoy 41041 late tonight. Water vapor satellite imagesshow dry air to the the west of Ophelia, and the strong upper level west-southwesterly winds bringing high wind shear to the storm are also injecting dry air into the storm’s core, interfering with development.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm’s heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience moderate to high wind shear of 10 – 25 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. The combination of shear and dry air should keep Ophelia from strengthening, and could dissipate the storm, as predicted by the ECMWF and HWRF models. The Northern Lesser Antilles could see some wind gusts of 30 – 40 mph and heavy rain squalls from Ophelia on Saturday and Sunday, but right now it looks unlikely that the islands would see sustained tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph, since they are likely to be on Ophelia’s weaker (dry) side. At longer ranges, Bermuda will have to keep an eye on Ophelia, since a large cut-off low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. should turn Ophelia to the northwest and then north early next week. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.

Ophelia is the 15th named storm this year, putting 2011 in 10th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Ophelia’s formation date of September 21 puts 2011 in 4th place for earliest date of arrival of the season’s 15th storm. Only2005, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 15th storm. With only three of this year’s fifteen storms reaching hurricane strength, though, this year has been near average for destructive potential. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851.

Jeff Masters

500 Years of Women Portraits

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500 Years Of Female Portraits In Western Art (VIDEO)

First Posted: 9/19/11 11:48 PM ET   Updated: 9/19/11 11:48 PM ET

New to us at HuffPost Arts, Philip Scott Johnson‘s “500 Years Of Female Portraits In Western Art” is intriguing in its ability to trace how representations of women have changed throughout art’s history. Watch as Johnson delicately weaves together famous portraits to show what traits and characterisitcs of the female figure have been deemed ‘ideal’ from epoch to epoch. See this list for all the paintings used in the video.


Women In Art from Philip Scott Johnson on Vimeo.

Four New CME’s

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FOUR CMEs: On Sept. 19th, the STEREO-SOHO fleet of spacecraft surrounding the sun detected six coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Two of the clouds rapidly dissipated. The remaining four, however, are still intact and billowing through the inner solar system. Click to view a movie of their forecasted paths:

According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, who prepared the movie, one CME should hit Mercury on Sept. 20th at 05:40 UT while another delivers a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Sept. 22th at 23:00 UT. All impact times have an uncertainty of plus or minus 7 hrs.

from sapceweather.com

Dogs Doin’ The “SHAKE”

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Sit. Shake a Paw. Now Just Shake.

By KERRI MACDONALD

Before she begins a photo shoot, the fine-art photographer Carli Davidson spends time getting to know her models.

“I have my dialogue,” said Ms. Davidson, 30. “I want to talk to them before I get a portrait so I get a sense of the person.”

Ms. Davidson spends very little time working with models of the “person” variety these days. The subjects of her ongoing project “Shake” are not perfect. They’re not entirely graceful. They tend to drool.

Since photographer and subject can’t necessarily converse with one another, Ms. Davidson plays with each one before its 15 minutes of fame. The shake, when it comes, is usually provoked by a squirt of water.

It doesn’t always work. Models can, after all, be divas. “It’s not something that you have a lot of control over,” Ms. Davidson acknowledged with a laugh.

Ms. Davidson grew up in New York. Two of her early jobs — working on a nature preserve and later as a photo assistant — have converged in her career. She majored in sociology at Evergreen State College in Olympia, Wash., and interned at the Oregon Zoo in Portland, where she was hired to work with the zoo’s birds of prey.

But when she was injured in a car accident a couple of years ago, Ms. Davidson began making photos for the zoo, instead.

“Shake” is in its early stages. The series is an offshoot of a book project onpets with disabilities. While working on that, Ms. Davidson tested some new high-speed mono lights on a round-faced Bordeaux. “I uploaded the photos and I was cracking up,” she said.

DESCRIPTIONCarli Davidson

It would be remiss not to mention the project’s ugly duckling, a 3-week-old kitten that had yet to perfect the “shake” motion. But at this point, the work is fairly dog-centric. Ms. Davidson has 10 canine subjects lined up over the next month and a half. Among them: a corded poodle — pleasantly dreadlocked — and a bug-eyed pug, “just one of the most hideously adorable dogs,” she said.

from:    http://lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/16/sit-shake-a-paw-now-just-shake/?hp

Strong Earthquake in Guatemala

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Strong dangerous earthquake in Guatemala – 3 people killed, many injured + a lot of damage

Last update: September 20, 2011 at 1:38 pm by By 

Article also written by Szombath Balazs
Earthquake overview :  Strong 5.8 earthquake hit Guatemala  September 19, 2011 at 12:34:00 PM local time. In only a half hour before a 4.8 earthquake struck the same region.

 

​SUMMARY 04:03 UTC:

At least 3 people have died (1 by a collapsing wall, and 2 by a landslide) when a shallow 5.8 magnitude earthquake struck Guatemala.

There are many injured and traumatised people as a result of this event.

At least 400 homes have been damaged in the Cuilapa area, and these homes have been evacuated.

UPDATE 23:50 UTC: Local sources are mentioning 1 killed person, 3 missing people and a lot of injured. Rescue services are continuing their struggle to find survivors. A total of 5 aftershocks have been reported. None of the aftershocks had a magnitude above 5. Most of the damage has been inflicted in the Cuilapa Santa Rosa area.

to read more and for updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/09/19/strong-dangerous-earthquake-in-guatemala/

Story Time: Melville’s Bartleby

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Herman Melville (1819–1891).  Bartleby, the Scrivener.  1853.
Bartleby, the Scrivener: A Story of Wall-street

I AM a rather elderly man. The nature of my avocations for the last thirty years has brought me into more than ordinary contact with what would seem an interesting and somewhat singular set of men, of whom as yet nothing that I know of has ever been written:—I mean the law-copyists or scriveners. I have known very many of them, professionally and privately, and if I pleased, could relate divers histories, at which good-natured gentlemen might smile, and sentimental souls might weep. But I waive the biographies of all other scriveners for a few passages in the life of Bartleby, who was a scrivener the strangest I ever saw or heard of. While of other law-copyists I might write the complete life, of Bartleby nothing of that sort can be done. I believe that no materials exist for a full and satisfactory biography of this man. It is an irreparable loss to literature. Bartleby was one of those beings of whom nothing is ascertainable, except from the original sources, and in his case those are very small. What my own astonished eyes saw of Bartleby, that is all I know of him, except, indeed, one vague report which will appear in the sequel.    1
  Ere introducing the scrivener, as he first appeared to me, it is fit I make some mention of myself, my employées, my business, my chambers, and general surroundings; because some such description is indispensable to an adequate understanding of the chief character about to be presented.    2
  Imprimis: I am a man who, from his youth upwards, has been filled with a profound conviction that the easiest way of life is the best. Hence, though I belong to a profession proverbially energetic and nervous, even to turbulence, at times, yet nothing of that sort have I ever suffered to invade my peace. I am one of those unambitious lawyers who never addresses a jury, or in any way draws down public applause; but in the cool tranquillity of a snug retreat, do a snug business among rich men’s bonds and mortgages and title-deeds. All who know me consider me an eminently safe man. The late John Jacob Astor, a personage little given to poetic enthusiasm, had no hesitation in pronouncing my first grand point to be prudence; my next, method. I do not speak it in vanity, but simply record the fact, that I was not unemployed in my profession by the late John Jacob Astor; a name which, I admit, I love to repeat, for it hath a rounded and orbicular sound to it, and rings like unto bullion. I will freely add, that I was not insensible to the late John Jacob Astor’s good opinion.    3
  Some time prior to the period at which this little history begins, my avocations had been largely increased. The good old office, now extinct in the State of New-York, of a Master in Chancery, had been conferred upon me. It was not a very arduous office, but very pleasantly remunerative. I seldom lose my temper; much more seldom indulge in dangerous indignation at wrongs and outrages; but I must be permitted to be rash here and declare, that I consider the sudden and violent abrogation of the office of Master of Chancery, by the new Constitution, as a —— premature act; inasmuch as I had counted upon a life-lease of the profits, whereas I only received those of a few short years. But this is by the way.    4
  My chambers were up stairs at No. — Wall-street. At one end they looked upon the white wall of the interior of a spacious sky-light shaft, penetrating the building from top to bottom. This view might have been considered rather tame than otherwise, deficient in what landscape painters call “life.” But if so, the view from the other end of my chambers offered, at least, a contrast, if nothing more. In that direction my windows commanded an unobstructed view of a lofty brick wall, black by age and everlasting shade; which wall required no spy-glass to bring out its lurking beauties, but for the benefit of all near-sighted spectators, was pushed up to within ten feet of my window panes. Owing to the great height of the surrounding buildings, and my chambers being on the second floor, the interval between this wall and mine not a little resembled a huge square cistern.    5
  At the period just preceding the advent of Bartleby, I had two persons as copyists in my employment, and a promising lad as an office-boy. First, Turkey; second, Nippers; third, Ginger Nut. These may seem names, the like of which are not usually found in the Directory. In truth they were nicknames, mutually conferred upon each other by my three clerks, and were deemed expressive of their respective persons or characters.
   7
 …….
  14
 Now my original business—that of a conveyancer and title hunter, and drawer-up of recondite documents of all sorts—was considerably increased by receiving the master’s office. There was now great work for scriveners. Not only must I push the clerks already with me, but I must have additional help. In answer to my advertisement, a motionless young man one morning, stood upon my office threshold, the door being open, for it was summer. I can see that figure now—pallidly neat, pitiably respectable, incurably forlorn! It was Bartleby.to read the rest, go to:    http://www.bartleby.com/129/

Dr. Jeff Masters Forecast for Rest of Hurricane Season

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Invest 98L spinning up; outlook for remainder of hurricane season
Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:09 PM GMT on September 19, 2011 +6
A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (Invest 98L) continues to look well-organized on satellite imagery, with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin. An ASCAT pass from 8:08 pm EDT last night showed 98L was close to closing off a well-defined surface circulation. Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model is light, less than 10 knots, and is predicted to stay light to moderate through Friday. Ocean temperatures are 28 – 28.5°C, well above the threshold typically needed for a tropical storm to spin up. Water vapor satellite images show 98L is embedded in a moist environment, but there is dry air to the system’s northwest. However, given the light wind shear, this dry air may not pose a hindrance to development at this time. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a pattern favorable for development, with an outflow channel open to both the north and south available to ventilate the storm and allow 98L to efficiently lift plenty of moisture to high levels.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 98L.

The models are not very aggressive about developing 98L into a tropical depression, but most of them do show some weak development. NHC gave the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. Given the recent increase in spin on visible satellite images and favorable environment for development, I’d bump these odds up to 70%. 98L is currently moving little, but is expected to begin a westward motion at 10 mph today. This motion would take 98L into the Lesser Antilles Islands by Friday or Saturday. The northern Lesser Antilles would be most likely to see the core of the storm, as has been the case for all of this year’s disturbances. However, a more southerly path across Barbados, as predicted by the GFS model, cannot be ruled out. Once 98L does reach the Lesser Antilles, all of the models indicate the storm will see a sharp increase in vertical wind shear due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. This shear should make it difficult for 98L to intensify as it moves though the islands.

Atlantic hurricane outlook for the rest of September
Ocean temperatures are starting to decline in the North Atlantic, though remain much above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America, between 10°N and 20°N latitude. The latest departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average plot (Figure 2) shows a large area of ocean temperatures near 1°C above average. The water temperatures were 0.8°C above average in this region during August, which is the 4th highest such reading on record. These warm waters will allow for an above-average chance of African tropical waves developing through early October. By early October, the African Monsoon typically begins to wane, spawning fewer tropical waves that tend to be weaker, and we should stop seeing development of newly-emerged tropical waves off the coast of Africa.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for September 19, 2011. Ocean temperatures were about 1°C above average over much of the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America, between 10°N and 20°N latitude. In the Pacific off the coast of South America, we can see the tell-tale signature of a La Niña event, with cooler than average waters along the Equator. Also note the cooler than average waters between Bermuda and Puerto Rico, due to the passage of Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Katia. Image credit:NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear has been near average over the tropical Atlantic this hurricane season, and is currently at its climatological low point, which occurs in mid-September. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model shows wind shear will remain at the sort of typical low levels we usually see this time of year. With ocean temperatures at near-record warm levels, this combination would tend to favor formation of at least two tropical storms between now and the beginning of October. One inhibiting factor, though, may be the continued presence of dry, stable air over the tropical Atlantic. Hurricanes like to have an unstable atmosphere, with moist, warm air near the surface, and cold, dryer air aloft. This situation helps the updrafts in the storm grow stronger. This year, we’ve had unusually stable air (Figure 3.) This has really put the brakes on intensification of most of the tropical storms that have formed. The current ratio of 14 named storms but only 3 hurricanes is unprecedented in the historical record, going back to 1851. Usually, just over half of all Atlantic tropical storms intensify into hurricanes. One other factor to consider, the 30-60 day pattern of increased thunderstorm activity known as the Madden-Jullian Oscillation (MJO), looks like it will have little influence over the coming week. The MJO has been weak all month, and is predicted to stay weak for the remainder of this week.


Figure 3. Vertical instability, as measured by the difference in temperature near the surface to the bottom of the stratosphere. The atmosphere in the Caribbean (left) and tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands (right) has been much more stable than average this year (average is the thick black line). Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.

Forecast of the rest of hurricane season
We are past the half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, which typically peaks on September 10. On average, about 60% of the activity has occurred by this point in the season. Since we’ve already had 14 named storms and 3 hurricanes, at the current rate, we would expect to see another 8 or 9 named storms, with 1 or 2 of them reaching hurricane strength. It’s pretty tough to maintain the sort of activity levels we’ve seen so far this year, so I am forecasting we’ll see 7 more named storms during the remainder of this season, taking us all the way to “W” in the alphabet. With the unusually stable air over the Atlantic showing no signs of abating, I predict that we’ll see just 2 of these storms reach hurricane strength. As far as steering currents go, the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model doesn’t show any significant changes to the jet stream pattern we’ve seen all summer. There will continue to be a parade of troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast that will tend to curve any storms northwards and then northeastwards out to sea, once they penetrate north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. This pattern favors strikes on North Carolina and New England, and discourages strikes on Texas. I doubt Texas will see a tropical storm this year given this steering pattern, and considering that Texas’ tropical cyclone season tends to peak in late August and early September. It is quite unusual for Texas to have a tropical storm or hurricane this late in the season, so they will probably have to look elsewhere for drought-busting rains.

Jeff Masters

Tectonic Explanation of Sikkim Quake

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Understanding the very strong damaging Nepal/Sikkim earthquake (18/09/2011)

 

Last update: September 19, 2011 at 12:29 pm by By 

Tectonic explanation of what happened

The September 18, 2011 Sikkim, India earthquake occurred near the boundary between the India and Eurasia plates, in the mountainous region of northeast India near the Nepalese border.
Initial analysis suggest the earthquake was complex, likely a result of two events occurring close together in time at depths of approximately 20 km beneath the Earth’s surface.

At the latitude of the September 18 earthquake, the India plate converges with Eurasia at a rate of approximately 46 mm/yr towards the north-northeast. The broad convergence between these two plates has resulted in the uplift of the Himalayas, the world’s tallest mountain range. The preliminary focal mechanism of the earthquake suggests strike slip faulting, and thus an intraplate source within the upper Eurasian plate or the underlying India plate, rather than occurring on the thrust interface plate boundary between the two.

This region has experienced relatively moderate seismicity in the past, with 18 earthquakes of M 5 or greater over the past 35 years within 100 km of the epicenter of the September 18 event.
The largest of these was a M 6.1 earthquake in November of 1980, 75 km to the southeast.

Text and images : courtesy USGS

for more, go to:   http://earthquake-report.com/2011/09/18/understanding-the-very-strong-destructive-sikkim-earthquake-18092011/

Artificial Blood Vessels from 3D Printer

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6 September 2011 Last updated at 06:49 ET

Artificial blood vessels created on a 3D printer

Katia MoskvitchBy Katia MoskvitchTechnology reporter, BBC News

Artificial polymer vesselArtificial blood vessels could help those in urgent need of an organ transplant

Artificial blood vessels made on a 3D printer may soon be used for transplants of lab-created organs.

Until now, the stumbling block in tissue engineering has been supplying artificial tissue with nutrients that have to arrive via capillary vessels.

A team at the Fraunhofer Institute in Germany has solved that problem using 3D printing and a technique called multiphoton polymerisation.

The findings will be shown at the Biotechnica Fair in Germany in October.

Out of thousands of patients in desperate need of an organ transplant there are inevitably some who do not get it in time.

In Germany, for instance, more than 11,000 people have been put on an organ transplant waiting list in 2011 alone.

To make sure more patients receive these life-saving surgeries, researchers in tissue engineering all over the globe have been working on creating artificial tissue and even entire organs in the lab.

But for a lab-made organ to function, it needs to be equipped with artificial blood vessels – tiny and extremely complex tubes that our organs naturally possess, used to carry nutrients.

CNumerous attempts have been made to create synthetic capillaries, and the latest one by the German team seems to be especially promising.