Southern Plains Severe Weather Alert

Severe weather, including Tornadoes likely on Monday for the South U.S. Plains

Published on November 5, 2011 9:40 am PT
– By TWS Senior Meteorologist
– Edited by Staff Editor

( – A storm system will move out of Southern California through Arizona on Sunday. This system will move eastward and impact Northwest Texas to Western Oklahoma in the form of supercells with a tornado setup developing. 

We usually want to wait for these things to get a bit closer for details to run the numbers for the Tornado Risk Model and this seems about the right time to get a ‘general’ idea of the setup

An upper level jet streak will be moving through the New Mexico and Western Texas border on Monday evening. This will provide the needed upper level divergence across the Eastern Texas Panhandle, down to Childress.

This upper level divergence, strong instability, good dewpoint/temp value, low level shear, and even convergence at the surface will make for a severe weather setup, including tornadoes on Monday evening.

This zone will be narrowed down and does issue Tornado Watches on this site for viewers that are interested. Those watches appear on the top right of all articles and the main page when issued and one might be needed on Monday should trends continue.

The main threat will be hail, but the Tornado Model numbers indicate a yellow/red value which is good enough for EF1 to EF2 type tornadoes on the south end of the storm system, over and around Childress, Texas.