Future Hurricane Katia track likely further north and east than Irene
|Published on August 29, 2011 11:15 am PT
– By Kevin Martin – Senior Meteorologist
– Article Editor and Approved – Warren Miller
(TheWeatherSpace.com) — Tropical Depression 12 has formed and should become Tropical Storm Katia within the next 12 or 24 hours.
Katia will be a very strong Hurricane within then next five or six days as it heads west-northwest through the Atlantic Ocean. There are factors to put this into perspective and one of those is the troughing expected along the Eastern U.S. as Katia moves into the Western Atlantic Ocean this weekend.
Right now this far out is a long shot, however looking at where I think the storm will be in five to six days time; including the intensity, have decided on a track similar to Hurricane Igor in 2010.
Igor moved northwest and then eventually northward into Bermuda Island. My reasoning would leave the Gulf of Mexico as the least probability in the forecast, giving the strongest one for Cape Cod to Bermuda Island and then into Nova Scotia.
Hurricane Katia will be about the size of Texas, much smaller than Irene was.
There are key factors such as a low out ahead of the system, and a low behind the system at the current time. This will help establish a healthy upper level outflow signature over the next couple of days and this will rapidly become a Hurricane, reaching Category Two in a couple days and shooting to Category Three and Four fast after day five.