Dr. Jeff Masters on The Week’s Wild Weather

Wild weather week ends; Mississippi River rises out of danger zone

Published: 2:44 PM GMT on February 01, 2013
One of the most unusual weeks of January weather in U.S. history has drawn to a close, and residents of the Southeast are cleaning up after a ferocious 2-day outbreak of severe weather. NWS damage surveys have found that at least 42 tornadoes touched down on January 29 – 30, making it the 3rd largest January tornado outbreak since records began in 1950. Here are the largest January tornado outbreaks since 1950:129 1/21 – 1/22 1999
50 1/7 – 1/8 2008
42 1/29 – 1/30 2013
40 1/9 1/10 1975

As wunderground’s Angela Fritz wrote in her blog today, the powerful tornado that ripped through Adairsville, Georgia, northwest of Atlanta, at 11:19 am EST Thursday morning, killing one person, has been rated a high-end EF-3 with 160 mph winds. At least seven other tornadoes in the outbreak were EF-2s. Damaging winds reports for the 2-day period numbered 597, the highest 2-day January total since NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) began tabulating these in 2000. The severe weather outbreak was fueled an air mass that set many all-time January records for warmth and moisture, as detailed by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in his latest post, A Wild Ride Weather-wise for the Eastern Half of the U.S. the past Four Days.


Figure 1. Damage to the Daiki Corporation factory in Adairsville, GA, after the January 30, 2013 EF-3 tornado. Image credit: Dr. Greg Forbes, TWC.


Figure 2. Severe weather reports for the month of January; 597 reports of damaging winds were recorded January 29 – 30. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.

Mississippi River rising
This week’s storm brought widespread rains of 1 – 2″ to Missouri and Illinois, along the drainage basin of the stretch of the Mississippi River that was so low as to threaten to stop barge traffic. Happily, the rains have caused the river to rise by more than seven feet over the past week, along the stretch from St. Louis to Thebes, Illinois. Thanks to this much-needed bump in river levels, plus the future run-off that will occur from the snows that have accumulated in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, I expect no potential low water closures of the Mississippi until June at the earliest. According to today’s newly-released Drought Monitor, though, the area of the contiguous U.S. in moderate or greater drought remained unchanged at 58% this week. It will be dry across the core of the drought region for at least the next week; the GFS model is predicting that the next chance of significant precipitation for the drought region will be Saturday, February 9. Don’t bet on this happening, though, since the model has been inconsistent with its handling of the storm. The drought has killed hundreds of thousands of trees across the Midwest, and many more will succumb during the next few years. According to Brian Fuchs, a climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center, drought was present in at least isolated spots in all 50 states of the U.S. for the first time in history during 2012.


Figure 3. The water level in the Mississippi River at St. Louis was at -4′ early this week, just above the all-time record low of -6.2′ set in 1940. However, rains from this week’s storm have raised water levels by seven feet. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 4. The liquid equivalent of melting all the snow on the ground present on February 1, 2013. Widespread amounts of water equivalent to 0.39″ – 2″ of rain are present over Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, which is near average for this time of year. When this snow melts, it will raise the level of the Mississippi River and aid barge navigation. Image credit: NOAA/National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.

Links
Adairsville Tornado Recap, Photos, and Video from Angela Fritz

A Wild Ride Weather-wise for the Eastern Half of the U.S. the past Four Days by wunderground’s weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.

Tornado Expert Sees “Staggering” Damage in Georgia

Have a great Groundhog’s Day and Super Sunday, everyone!

Jeff Masters

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Tornado Tracks for the Last 56 Years

Stunning Visualization of 56 Years of Tornadoes in the US

by NANCY ATKINSON on MAY 31, 2012

The tracks of tornadoes in the US during the past 56 years, categorized by F-Scale. Credit: John Nelson

It’s a wonder of nature, baby. Using information from data.gov, tech blogger John Nelson has created this spectacular image of tornado paths in the US over a 56 year period. The graphic categorizes the storms by F-scale with the brighter neon lines representing more violent storms.

Makes you want to hang on to something solid.

Nelson also provided some stats on all the storms in the different categories:

The numbers represent total deaths, total injuries, average miles the storms traveled
F0: 7, 267, 2
F1: 111, 3270, 6.58
F2: 363, 10373, 11.4
F3: 958, 18160, 17.80
F4: 1912, 28427, 28.62
F5: 1013, 11038, 38.87

 from:    http://www.universetoday.com/95561/stunning-visualization-of-56-years-of-tornadoes-in-the-us/

Signs and Omens in 2012 — Video

2012 The first three months: Signs in the sun and the moon and the stars

From BeforeItsNews.com

We weren’t sure where to post this until we watched the whole thing and realized how great it would be if everyone had a chance to see it. In a little over 24 minutes the following video delivers a chronological peek at some of the signs and portents that have come to pass since the New Year began. It is one thing to know what’s going on close to home  but it is something else to understand that the entire fabric of our reality is reeling in response to forces and energies that are impacting us all. You will find a taste of fire and brimstone underlying all of the factual information in this documentary. Take the apocalyptic overtones for what they are worth. The bulk of what is recorded here is being presented to give you a sense of just how much life on this planet is changing and to remind you that there is no better time than now to slow down and reconnect with the heart beat of Mother Earth.

 

Severe Weather Impacting the West, Midwest, Possibly Northeast

3/17/2012 — Severe weather forming out west — preparations should be made now

Posted on March 18, 2012

watch the update here:

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Today was a somewhat heavy day for the midwest — damaging winds, nickel sized hail , excessive lightning … Missouri, Illinois, Indiana have received the brunt of this first SMALL system.

Coming out west — a very large low pressure system — pushing its way south near the Border of Mexico/California — pressing eastward eventually.. then northeast ..

College of Dupage GOES infrared satellite – northern hemisphere view :

This will draw the southern flow of warm moist air up from the south — mixing the cold air from the north — cold enough to produce a large winter weather advisory out west in CA, OR, WA, ID, NV, UT, CO.

When the system finally heads east (after the above mentioned western states).. it will give us extreme severe weather in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, (possibly nebraska), Lousiana, Mississippi , Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Ohio …. eventually the east coast and south east as well…

Expect severe damaging winds.. large hail.. and tornadoes in several of the above mentioned states.. if not ALL the above mentioned states.  Only a few may be spared some kind of severe weather.  Most will get the hail and damaging winds for sure — lets HOPE few get tornadoes.

Time for preparation is now… in case of loss of home, property, or in case of injury — make these plans and know them well… make sure your friends/family/loved ones also know the plan.

Power outage, loss of shelter, loss of transportation, water cut off etc.. these are all common results of severe weather.. sometimes entire communities are wiped out (as was the case 3 weeks ago in the midwest).

FEMA turned DOWN disaster coverage for the people of Illinois (who lost entire towns)… so if youre looking for help AFTER a storm.. the only help you’ll be getting will be from local government, family, or friends….. so have insurance if you can afford it.. if you rent.. get that renters insurance.. make sure it covers severe weather and earthquakes !!!

much love, be safe, and heed the warnings if they are issued for your area— but don’t RELY on the warnings.. if you see these storms forming… best to look for yourself to find out whats going on.. I’ve assembled several links you can use to monitor this current and coming outbreak personally…

http://sincedutch.wordpress.com/2012/02/12/2122012-weather-monitoring-links-satellite-and-radar-for-usa-and-world/

from:    http://sincedutch.wordpress.com/

Severe Weather & Tornadoes — Why Now?

Why So Many Tornadoes Are Striking the US

Brett Israel, OurAmazingPlanet Staff Writer
Date: 02 March 2012 Time: 05:55 PM ET

 

Wind speed at 18,000 feet in the atmosphere. The darkest shade represents winds of up to 150 mph.
Wind speed at 18,000 feet in the atmosphere. The darkest shade represents winds of up to 150 mph.
CREDIT: NOAA/NASA.

A warm spell and a low-dipping jet stream are fueling the monster storms that are spawning tornadoes today across a wide swath of the country, weather experts said.

Today, the Storm Prediction Center has received 311 reports of severe weather, including 48 reported tornadoes and a few reported fatalities. This massive storm system also spawned deadly tornadoes on Leap Day, which raked Kansas, Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee. The severe storms killed at least 12 people and included a strong EF-4 twister in Harrisburg, Ill., a rarity for February.

As of this morning, the severe storm risk area covered an estimated 162 million people, or 56 percent of the United States, according to weather experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

While the main tornado season runs from spring to early summer, this year’s early outbreaks show that tornadoes can form under a variety of conditions and strike during fall and winter, too. This year’s mild winter and warm start to meteorological spring has upped the risk of dangerous storms.

“We’ve been in a very warm pattern all winter,” said meteorologist Mark Rose of the National Weather Service in Birmingham, Ala. “Because it has been so mild, it increases our chances for severe weather.”

Also behind this week’s twisters is a low-dipping jet stream. The jet stream is moving at a blistering pace today across the Mid-South and Ohio River Valley. NOAA satellites clocked the jet stream at 150 mph (241 kph) across these regions. The jet stream is bringing cold air from Canada to mix with the warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Where these two differing air masses meet is often an area of severe weather, hail, winds and even tornadoes. [Infographic: 2012’s Active Tornado Season]

The warm air and rapid jet stream will keep fueling the storms thru tonight and into the weekend, according to NOAA. Weather experts continue to warn that dangerous tornado outbreaks could explode throughout the evening and overnight hours across the Mid- and Deep South and Ohio River Valley.

“We actually are looking at a risk from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes to west of the Mississippi to the East Coast,” Craig Fugate, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, told the Weather Channel. “And these storms are moving fast.”

from:    http://www.livescience.com/18806-tornadoes-striking-explained.html

Dutch Sinse on Extreme 3/2 Weather

3/3/2012 — ” (never) in my life.. ” — EXTREME hail in Fort Branch Indiana — March Mega-storm 2012

Posted on March 3, 2012

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I agree .. NEVER IN MY LIFE have I seen such a tremendous weather outbreak effect so many people over so many states….. it may indeed be one for the record books when it comes to widespread damage.. only time will tell.

This video is just a SMALL SAMPLE of the severity of these storm.

The March Mega-storms of 2012 have turned out to be something for the record books, tragedy beyond imagination in many towns across the United States. Our thoughts and prayers are with those effected by this severe weather outbreak.

MANY THANKS to youtube video maker ‘themetaltempest’ for recording this!

http://www.youtube.com/themetaltempest

make sure to check out their Anti-GMO site !!!

http://www.gmodestroyer.com

from:    http://sincedutch.wordpress.com/

 

Jeff Masters on Possibility of Tornadoes 3/2

The winter of 2012 blew out like a lion yesterday, with a massive Leap Day storm that pounded the Midwest with deadly tornadoes and heavy snow. A violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph winds tore through Harrisburg, Illinois at 4:56 am CST yesterday morning, killing six, injuring approximately 100, and damaging 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path seven miles long and 250 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. Another person was killed in southwest Missouri near Buffalo when am EF-2 tornado ripped through a mobile home park late Wednesday night. Twelve others were injured in the mobile home park. Four additional deaths occurred due to tornadoes in Cassville, MO, Smithville, TN, and Monterey, TN yesterday, bringing the death toll of the two-day severe weather outbreak to eleven. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri yesterday morning, injuring 33 people. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theaters–Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. The Branson Landing on Lake Taneycomo and the Veterans Memorial Museum were also heavily damaged. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. An EF-2 tornado also hit the small town of Harveyville, Kansas (population 275), twenty miles southwest of Topeka, at 9:03 pm Wednesday night. The tornado destroyed 40 – 60% of the structures and injured twelve, three critically. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions of dollars, and could add up to be the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S.


Figure 1. Damage in Branson, Missouri after yesterday’s tornado. Image credit: BransonRecovery Facebook page.

Yesterday’s tornado outbreak’s place in history
Yesterday was the deadliest day for U.S. tornadoes since May 24, 2011, when 18 people died in a Midwest tornado outbreak–part of the five-day outbreak that brought the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado, which killed 158 people and injured 1150. The preliminary tornado total from February 28 – 29 of 2012 is 30, making it the largest February tornado outbreak since February 17 – 18, 2008, when 31 twisters touched down. Yesterday’s Harrisburg, Illinois tornado was the deadliest February tornado since the February 10, 2009 EF-4 twisterthat struck Southern Oklahoma near Ardmore, killing eight. The deadliest February tornado in recorded history occurred on February 21, 1971, when an F-4 tornado ripped a 202-mile path through Mississippi, killing 58 people.


Figure 2. By analyzing both the rotational velocity of the storm systems (the spinning of tornadoes has high rotational velocity compared to the surrounding storms) and presence of hail, scientists at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory have developed a product that approximates the track of tornadoes, shown here for the February 29, 2012 storms. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Violent tornadoes in February: a rarity
Violent February tornadoes are rare in February. The Tornado History Project lists eighteen EF-4 and one EF-5 tornadoes in the U.S. during the month of February since 1950–an average of one violent February tornado every three years. Part of the reason for this is the lack of warm, unstable air so early in the year. However, this year’s unusually mild winter has led to ocean temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico that are approximately 1°C above average–among the top ten warmest values on record, going back to the 1800s. Averaged over the month of February, the highest sea surface temperatures on record in the Gulf between 20 – 30°N, 85 – 95°W occurred in 2002, when the waters were 1.34°C above average. Yesterday’s tornado outbreak was fueled, in part, by high instability created by unusually warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico due to the high water temperatures there.

Heavy snow hits Upper Midwest
The same storm system also brought the heaviest snows of the winter to portions of the Upper Midwest, which has received scant snowfall this winter. Widespread heavy snow fell in northern Wisconsin, where Mincqua recorded 18 inches. South Dakota, Central Minnesota, and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula also received snow amounts in excess of a foot. The storm also brought moderate snows to Northern New England, with southern Vermont receiving more than 8 inches. The latest NOAA Storm Summary has detailed storm total accumulation info.


Figure 3. Snowfall amounts for the 3-day period ending at 7 am local time Thursday, March 1, 2012. Image credit: NOAA Southern Region Headquarters.

New tornado outbreak likely on Friday
The storm system that brought yesterday’s tornadoes and snow has moved into Canada and New England, and the threat of severe weather is minimal today in the Midwest. However, a new storm system is expected to form over Missouri early Friday and track northeastward, unleashing a new tornado outbreak over Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Indiana, and Ohio. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in their “Moderate Risk” area for severe weather Friday, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. Consult ourSevere Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.


Figure 4. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Tennessee, Kentucky, and portions of surrounding states in their “Moderate Risk” area for severe weather on Friday. This is one level below the highest level of alert, “High Risk.”

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornado
Portlight is sending people into the Harrisburg, IL, area at this time in response to the tornado disaster there. They will be assessing needs there and surrounding areas. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the un-served, under-served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!

Jeff Masters

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2042

Storm Central Calls for More Heavy Weather Friday

fr/Storm Central:

A major low pressure is forecasts to deepen and slide north northeastward into the Chicagoland area. With this, a warm front is going to ride above while a cold front slips to the south. The huge contrast from Warm 70-80 degree temperatures with warm moist gulf air is going to have these storms popping near the Mississippi River on Friday. With the lower level jet stream being farther to the south, a clash of air masses coupled with strong forcing and dynamic cooling is going to quickly get these storms tornadic. Unfortunately, it currently looks like a widespread outbreak. A tornado outbreak means at least 10 tornadoes occurring with a system. Forecasters at Storm Central think this could very well be worse than Tuesday’s or Wednesday’s storms.

Since we are dealing with such a strong low pressure, shear levels are going to be through the roof. With that being said, storms are going to quickly become super cells and have a much higher threat to become tornadic super cells. While it is impossible toforecast the exact path or city a tornado will impact, Storm Central has laid out a diagram where the all the ingredients will come together.
 Please prepare for the potential for long lasting strong tornadoes to occur in any of the Red or Pink areas. While all areas will likely not see a tornado warning, most areas are likely to be under a tornado watch sometime on Friday or Friday night. What is dangerous with this upcoming system is that storms are not going to stop overnight. Tornadic storms could go well into the overnight hours as they did Tuesday night. While the areas are subject to minor changes, a firstforecast is out and this is likely to be a big event.

Storm Central will be updating on Facebook with update posts, watches,warnings and more. We have proved ourselves Tuesday evening as a great helper to alerting others and we would like to help you as well. (LIKE) Us on Facebook for the latest! 
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This is certainly not the only topic we are discussing. Another potential Blizzard may impact Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin this weekend. Model runs are placing out over a foot of snow with 40mph winds. While this is not set in stone, it is certainly something to watch very closely as If this does occur, a big storm for many!

-Matt Baranowski

2/29/12

from:   http://stormcentral1st.com/?p=5085

Dr. Jeff Masters on January Weather & Records

Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:25 PM GMT on February 08, 2012 +21
It wasn’t the warmest January in U.S. history, but it sure didn’t seem like winter last month–the contiguous U.S. experienced its fourth warmest January on record, and the winter period December 2011 – January 2012 was also the fourth warmest in the 117-year record, reported NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center yesterday. The percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures was 56 percent–the second highest value on record. Thirteen of the 550 major U.S. cities with automated airport weather stations broke or tied all-time records for their hottest January temperature:

Craig, CO 82°F
Bakersfield, CA 82°F
Alexandria, LA 83°F
Duluth, MN 48°F
Minot, ND 61°F
Mitchell, SD 68°F
Fargo, ND 55°F
Jamestown, ND 56°F
Huron, SD 65°F
Aberdeen, SD 63°F
Iron Mountain, MI 52°F
Alma, GA 83°F
Omaha, NE 69°F

However, extremely cold air settled in over Alaska in January, and several cities in Alaska had their coldest average January temperatures on record: Nome (-16.6 degrees F), Bethel (-17.3 degrees F), McGrath (-28.5 degrees F), and Bettles (-35.6 degrees F).


Figure 1. State-by-state rankings of temperatures for January 2012. Nine states had top-ten warmest Januarys on record, while no states had below-average temperatures in January. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.

28th driest January for the contiguous U.S.
The first week of January was almost precipitation-free across the entire contiguous U.S., but a series of storms over Texas, the Ohio Valley, and the Pacific Northwest later in the month boosted precipitation totals enough to make January 2012 the 28th driest in the 118-year period of record. Remarkably, Texas had its 30th wettest January on record, and was the 2nd wettest state during the month. Texas also had a very wet December, their 19th wettest December. It is very rare for Texas to receive so much precipitation during a La Niña winter. Texas had not experienced two consecutive months with above-average precipitation since January – February 2010, during the last El Niño event.


Figure 2. State-by-state rankings of precipitation for January 2012. Three states had top-ten driest Januarys on record, while no states had a top-ten wettest January. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.

3rd least-snowy January
According to the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the average U.S. snow extent during January was the 3rd smallest January snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. The National Weather Service sends out a daily “Weather and Almanac” product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on underground. The February 6 statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter show that only fifteen cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 6, and 155 had received below-average snowfall.


Figure 3. The new “Blue Marble” image of Earth on January 4, 2012, as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the new Suomi NPP satellite. The U.S. and Canada are virtually snow-free and cloud-free, which is extremely rare for a January day. The lack of snow in the mountains of the Western U.S. is particularly unusual. I doubt one could find a January day this cloud-free with so little snow on the ground throughout the entire satellite record, going back to the early 1960s. NOAA’sAdvanced Hydrologic Prediction Service shows that only one state–Washington–had areas where precipitation accumulated more than 0.25″ on January 4, 2012, which is an extraordinary occurrence for a January day. Image credit:NASA.

Drought expands in January
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, as of January 31st, 2012, about 3.3 percent of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing the worst category of drought–called D4 or exceptional drought–about the same as the beginning of the month. However, the percent area of the U.S. experiencing drought of any severity increased from 32 percent at the beginning of January to 38 percent at the end of the month. Most of the drought expansion occurred across the Upper Midwest and the western states.

2nd most January tornadoes on record
With 95 preliminary tornado reports, January 2012 is likely to end up with the 2nd most January tornadoes since 1950 (the record is 218, set in January 1999.)

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2031