Following Joaquin

Joaquin Close to Category 5 Strength; Rains Inundate Carolinas

By: Bob Henson , 6:01 PM GMT on October 03, 2015

There is plenty of life left in Hurricane Joaquin as it moves away from the Bahamas. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft detected winds around noon EDT Saturday of 144 knots at the 700-millibar level, with stepped-frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) data showing estimated surface winds of 138 knots (159 mph). The National Hurricane Center upgraded Joaquin’s strength to top sustained winds of 155 mph in a special advisory at noon EDT Saturday, up from 130 mph in the advisory issued just an hour earlier. This immediately pushed Joaquin from the bottom to the top end of the Category 4 scale. A central pressure of 933 millibars was reported, although a radiosonde deployed in the eye of Joaquin failed, so there is some uncertainty around this estimate. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft was en route to Joaquin as of early Saturday afternoon. Joaquin’s eye has warmed and cleared over the last few hours, reflecting the rapid restrengthening, although infrared satellite imagery shows that its core of strongest thunderstorms has become smaller and less intense.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Hurricane Joaquin.

Joaquin’s burst of strength is especially remarkable given that a strong El Niño is under way (El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by enhancing wind shear). The last Atlantic storm with sustained winds this strong was Hurricane Igor, in 2010, which peaked at 155 mph. The Atlantic’s last Category 5 was Hurricane Felix, in 2007, with winds topping out at 160 mph. The last El Niño season that managed to produce a Category 5 was 2004, when Ivan formed. However, the El Niño event of 2004-05 was relatively weak, with autumn Niño3.4 anomalies of only around +0.7°C compared to the current value of more than +2.0°C.

Joaquin is also in an area where very few Category 5 track segments have been reported since reliable records began in 1950 (see Figure 2). Record-warm waters in this part of the Northwest Atlantic are likely playing a major role in Joaquin’s unusual strength. Joaquin was designated as a tropical depression on Sunday night, September 27, at latitude 27.5°N. This makes Joaquin one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record to have begun its life as a tropical cyclone at such a high latitude. In fact, Joaquin’s latest location (26.4°N. 70.9°W) is still south of its origin point.

Fortunately for the United States, Joaquin is hustling into the open Atlantic, now moving northeast at 16 mph. Track models are fairly consistent in keeping Joaquin west of Bermuda, but with only a small margin for error. Bermuda is now under a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning; at a minimum, the island can expect high surf, strong winds, and a few squalls from outer-edge rainbands, especially as Joaquin makes its closest approach on Monday.


Figure 2. In this map of all Category 5 hurricanes reported in the Atlantic since 1950, bright purple indicates the segments where Category 5 strength was analyzed. Image credit: The Weather Channel, courtesy Jon Erdman.


Figure 3. Satellite image Hurricane Joaquin taken at noon EDT October 3, 2015. At the time, the hurricane was just below Category 5 strength with top winds of 155 mph. A band of very heavy rain can also been seen feeding into South Carolina, to the northwest of the hurricane. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 4. Flooding from heavy rain swamps the intersection of Huger Street and King Street in Charleston, S.C. on Saturday, October 3, 2015. Image credit: Matthew Fortner/The Post And Courier, via AP.

Severe flooding likely in South Carolina Saturday and Sunday
As expected, a band of torrential rain has materialized over South Carolina, paving the way for an especially dangerous situation from Saturday afternoon into Sunday. As of midday Saturday, the heaviest rain extended from the south half of the South Carolina coastline northwest across the state to the hilly Uplands region. The swath of intense rain will pivot very slowly in a counterclockwise direction, gradually translating southward over the higher terrain but moving very little near the coastline. This will put the area around Charleston at particular risk of severe flash flooding from Saturday afternoon into Sunday. CoCoRaHS maps show widespread rain totals of 4” – 8” in the Charleston area from 7:00 am EDT Friday to 7:00 am Saturday.


Figure 5. Predicted 15-hour rainfall totals from the HRRR model for the period from 10:00 am Saturday, October 3, to 1:00 am Sunday, October 4. Image credit: NWS/NCEP.

The Charleston area has a reasonable chance of beating the all-time three-day rainfall records below, possibly in just a 24-hour period!

North Charleston, SC (CHS)
11.95”, 6/9/1973-6/11/1973
11.62”, 6/10/1973-6/12/1973
11.40”, 9/19/1998-9/21/1998
10.64”, 9/4/1987-9/6/1987
10.52”, 9/21/1998-9/23/1998
Records begin in 1938

Downtown Charleston, SC (CXM)
12.39”, 6/9/1973-6/11/1973
11.92”, 6/10/1973-6/12/1973
11.73”, 9/5/1933-9/7/1933
11.72”, 9/4/1933-9/6/1933
11.31”, 9/4/1987-9/6/1987
Records begin in 1870

Forecasters are particularly concerned that high-tide cycles in Charleston may coincide with periods of torrential rain, which could produce extreme flash flooding in the city in short order. The Saturday afternoon high tide of 8.2 feet was the highest to occur since Hurricane Hugo in 1989. The next tides will occur in Charleston at 1:34 am and 2:03 pm on Sunday.

Surrounding states are also experiencing heavy rain and flood threats. Mudslides and landslides are possible in the higher terrain of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. A strengthening of the onshore flow that has persisted for several days over the mid-Atlantic will again raise the risk of significant tidal flooding from Virginia to New Jersey, especially in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia.


Figure 6. GOES-West infrared satellite image covering the Northeast and Central Pacific, taken at 1545Z (11:45 am EDT) Saturday, October 3, 2015. Image credit: CIMMS/SSEC/University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Tropical Storm Oho may threaten Hawaii
The hyperactive Central Pacific broke its record–again–for the most number of named storms in a single season with the christening of Tropical Storm Oho on Saturday. According to NHC’s Eric Blake, Oho is the eighth tropical storm to form in the Central Pacific this year, doubling the previous record of just four. Oho is now located roughly 500 miles south-southeast of Honolulu. The steering patterns that will drive Oho are ill-defined and still evolving, which complicates the track forecast. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center currently projects Oho to arc northwest over the next couple of days, then move more briskly toward the east and northeast on a path that would keep it a couple hundred miles south of Hawaii’s Big Island early next week. There is plenty of room for this forecast to evolve, though. Oho has the chance to become a powerful hurricane, thanks to the weak upper-level flow as well as record-warm waters that have fueled so many other tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific this year. The SHIPS rapid intensification index gives Oho a good chance of rapidly strengthening from Saturday into Sunday. Oho now has top sustained winds of just 40 mph, but most dynamical and statistical models are making Oho a hurricane by Monday, and several bring it to Category 2 status by Thursday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An array of other systems peppered the Northern Hemisphere tropics on Saturday. In the Central Atlantic, Invest 90L is looking less robust, with NHC now giving it only a 40% chance of development in the next 2 to 5 days. A late-blooming Cape Verde wave between 30°W and 35°W poses little threat over at least the next several days, and strong wind shear at low latitudes will probably cap any later development.


Figure 7. WU’s latest tracking map for tropical cyclones around the globe.

In the Northeast Pacific, Invest 94E is slowly organizing more than 1000 miles southwest of Baja California. NHC gives 94E a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday and a 50% chance by Thursday. Closer to Mexico, the remants of Tropical Storm Marty could produce heavy rainfall as they move inland on Sunday into Monday. Some moisture from ex-Marty may get entrained into an upper-level storm taking shape early next week in the Southwest U.S., possibly delivering strong thunderstorms to the Arizona deserts on Monday.

In the Central Pacific, still another system–Tropical Depression 8C, the 13th tropical cyclone to form or pass through the Central Pacific this year–formed on Saturday morning about 1100 miles southwest of Honolulu. Moderate southerly shear should keep 8C from developing beyond minimal tropical-storm strength for at least the next couple of days as it pushes westward.

In the Northwest Pacific, Typhoon Mujigae may strengthen slightly over the next 24 hours before it moves into the coast of extreme southern China, southwest of Hong Kong. To the east, Tropical Storm Choi-Wan will slowly gather steam and may become a minimal typhoon early next week before an expected recurvature just east of Japan by midweek.

We’ll have our next update on Sunday afternoon.

Bob Henson

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3139

Lourdes Site FLooded

Floods close Lourdes pilgrimage site in Pyrenees

Associated PressBy BOB EDME | Associated Press –

  • Buildings are surrounded by flood water near Lourdes, southwestern France, Wednesday, June 19, 2013. French rescue services and police are evacuating hundreds of pilgrims from hotels threatened by floodwaters from a rain-swollen river in the Roman Catholic shrine town of Lourdes. (AP Photo/Bob Edme)

    View PhotoAssociated Press/Bob Edme – Buildings are surrounded by flood water near Lourdes, southwestern France, Wednesday, June 19, 2013. French rescue services and police are evacuating hundreds of pilgrims from hotels …more 

Related Content

LOURDES, France (AP) — Heavy floods in southwest France have left two dead and forced the closure of the Catholic pilgrimage site in Lourdes and the evacuation of pilgrims from nearby hotels.

Muddy floodwaters swirled Wednesday in the grotto where nearly 6 million believers from around the world, many gravely ill, come every year seeking miracles and healing. It has been a major pilgrimage site since a French girl’s vision of the Virgin Mary there in 1858.

Heavy rains around the region inundated town centers and swelled the Gave de Pau river, forcing road closures.

Interior Minister Manuel Valls said on BFM television that a man in his seventies died Wednesday, swept away by the river. The Interior Ministry says it is the second person who has died in this week’s rains.

The spokesman for the Lourdes pilgrimage complex, Mathias Terrier said that the site in the foothills of the Pyrenees wasn’t likely to reopen before the end of the week.

Rescue services evacuated hundreds of people from nearby hotels. Authorities were particularly concerned with bringing weak and sick pilgrims to safety.

“We need more reinforcements in the area to face these floods, which are really exceptional,” Valls said while visiting Lourdes on Wednesday. He said days of sustained rains and sudden snowmelt made the flooding worse, and left some villages isolated.

The website for the pilgrimage complex, which includes several buildings and a sanctuary nestled beneath a rocky hillside, carried a dramatic rundown of the rising waters.

Throughout Tuesday, masses were gradually cancelled. One by one, entrances to the sanctuary were cordoned off. The live video feed of the grotto went down. Then the electricity was cut off, and then phones.

“A vision of the apocalypse in the Sainte Bernadette Church, where the big movable partition is threatening to fall. The water has risen above the stairs of the choir,” read one announcement.

Terrier said waters reached 1.5 meters (about 5 feet) in the grotto. A group of 3,000 children scheduled to come for the day Wednesday were told to stay away. Volunteers offered to help clean up the site when the waters recede.

from:    http://news.yahoo.com/floods-close-lourdes-pilgrimage-pyrenees-090133766.html

(NOTE:  Interesting that another site of pilgrimage is being flooded just as the “season” starts.)

 

India Massive Floods

Indian floods leave tens of thousands stranded in Uttarakhand state

Death toll from catastrophic floods during mass pilgrimage in Himalayan state put at over 1,000 after monsoon deluge

A pilgrim is helped by a villager along a path damaged by a landslide in the state of Uttarakhand

A pilgrim is helped by a villager along a path damaged by a landslide in the Himalayan state of Uttarakhand. Photograph: Danish Siddiqui/Reuters

Tens of thousands of people, including pilgrims, tourists and local villagers, remained stranded on Thursday and an unknown number have been killed after torrential rains in the eastern Himalayas breached a glacier, flooded mountain rivers and triggered scores of landslides.

The horrific natural disaster, described by some as a “Himalayan tsunami”, was triggered by excessively heavy rainfall of more than 220mm (8.6in) on Sunday in a region home to the headwaters of the river Ganges.

As army helicopters ferried survivors down to the plains for a second day on Thursday, the official death toll passed 150, but unofficial estimates put the number of dead in the thousands.

Floods and landslides are an annual occurrence in Uttarakhand state – where the disaster struck – but the loss of life is much larger than in previous years as the monsoon arrived in India a month early, well before more than 60,000 Hindu and Sikh pilgrims who had trekked to the Himalayan holy sites of Kedarnath and Hemkund had returned home.

According to the Hindu religious calendar, Tuesday marked the day on which the Ganges descended to earth and when the rush of pilgrims is at its peak at the ancient Shiva temple in Kedarnath, a steep nine mile (14km) trek from the nearest bus stop.

Just three miles further north across the Kedar Dome mountain peak lies the Charbari glacier. The rains appear to have breached this glacier, sending a huge torrent of ice, rock, mud and water across the mountain, engulfing Kedarnath town.

It is unclear how many pilgrims and priests died at Kedarnath, but the account of one survivor, Kalyan Singh Jadaun, a middle-aged shopkeeper from Rajasthan, suggests a heavy loss of life.

Jadaun and his wife had just emerged from a guest house at 6.30am on Monday to join a stream of pilgrims heading toward the temple when the debris began rushing in.

“We were walking the 50 metres to the temple when we saw a huge chunk of ice and rock breaking not far away, and heard commotion and shouting,” he told the Indian Express.

“Local priests were telling people to run to high ground as the glacier broke up and a huge stream came rushing down the mountain. We ran back to our house. There was a mad scramble to climb the stairs to the third floor as everyone tried to reach as high as they could.”

In the melee, his wife was pushed back and when the torrent of water hit the building she was still on the second floor. “It swept her away, tossing her along with rocks and huge blocks of ice,” said Jadaun. “I saw her being washed away.”

Jadaun was rescued by an army helicopter. He said that after the deluge he saw “a large number of bodies strewn around” Kedarnath.

Heavy rain and swollen rivers also caused havoc over a swath of mountainous territory extending from Kedarnath down to the plains, washing away homes, hotels, roads and bridges. The impact was also felt in the western Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh, where many foreign tourists were also stranded. Even parts of the capital, Delhi, are flooded due to the overflowing river Yamuna.

“Several factors, both natural and man-made, came together to cause this extraordinary disaster,” said Deb Mukherjee, an expert on the Himalayas. “The sudden cloud burst, the nature of Himalayan geology and the often environmentally unsound development of the region have all contributed to the tragedy.”

from:    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/20/india-floods-thousands-stranded-uttarakhand