Winter Storm Heads Towards MidWest

7-9 Inches Mon-Wed From Texas to Michigan; Chicago and Other Locations On The Verge of A Major Winter Storm

December 3, 2011  |   Filed under: Climate,Climate Information,Winter Weather,Winter Weather Information  |   Posted by: 

16+ States Are Likely to be affected by this winter storm! Are you prepared? 

Winter has officially set in as Meteorological Winter Started last Thursday December 2but it sure hasn’t looked like winter or even fall prior to the start of December. Almost all of the Center and Eastern portions of the United States ended up above normal in temperatures. But as quick as warm weather was sent in it will leave in a nippy fashion as we roll towards the weekend. Currently, Storm Central’s Jonny J has been tracking and forecasting the low pressure development of Storm #1 as a swath of snow from Nebraska (northeast) to Michigan. That storm is forecast to drop around a half of foot of snow. On a more nationwide basis, a huge drop in the Jet stream is bringing cold air from Canada all the way south to Texas just in time for yet another Snow Storm.

Storm Central’s Gino Recchia noted this storm system Thursday night as shown by the DJEX model. Since then, this storm has taken over the larger topic in the weather center as this storm has the potential to drop snowfall for at least 16 states come Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday. 

The current low pressure expected to move north east and be in Canada by Sunday is set to send a trailing cold front in it’s wake. That is not only going to set the stage for cold weather but is also forecast to spin up a low pressure between Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas. Models have had this storm complex way east and heading up the east coast on Thursday but totally flipped Friday morning. Alike the past storms, this storm has shifted westward a good 200 miles so that puts places areas that weren’t in the forecast for snow on Thursday model runs, on the model runs come Saturday. The low pressure is expected to strengthen over portions of Indiana then continue its north east to north north east pattern up towards Buffalo, New York. The major thing about this storm is going to be its snow side. This storm is going to be a slow developer at first then race north eastward over time. But Oklahoma and Texas will likely see an significant accumulation of snow due to cold air in place and plenty of Gulf Moisture to tap.Reading a few posts, It seems as forecasters are worried about the low pressure sitting their for time after time and picking up plenty of gulf moisture. In fact, their so worried that they are throwing out over 18 Inches of snow in all the wrong areas. Trust us folks… no 18+ Inches in any locations (aside from Mountains).

With every storm complex they always have their share of wild cards and this one has plenty!

  • How far south is this storm going to develop? How long will it sit and inhibit moisture into the system and therefore cause much higher rain and snow totals?
  • The exact track of the system is still undefined but we do know the general area (within 300miles) of track forecast.
  • How far south is the storm system going to track south? Lake effect?

Plenty more wild cards but those are the three major ones. Currently, model runs have noted back east with each run but what I am concerned about is the past 5 storms have all transitioned back westward. For example: Last Monday (Nov 21) Models noted a Chicago 6+ snowfall. Well, look where we are at 10 days later with this storm track 500miles west of Chicago. That very well could occur again and that is what I am concerned about.

EXCLUSIVE TO STORM CENTRAL:
Keeping all that in mind, Storm Central has placed a Winter Weather Key with our new and updated graphics. As you can see, from New Mexico to Michigan, you are under “watch for impact”. Please note the picture below to see what key you are currently under. These keys will change over the next day so this key is only valid for Saturday’s Forecast ONLY.

So how much snow are we talking is what everyone wants to know correct? Their is going to be a very narrow band of heavy snow like the previous storm. Some locations are going to see a mix of snow and rain and others are likely to see heavy rain from this which could tally up to over 3 inches.

*Please Note: Instead of releasing an early forecast, Storm Central would like to continue our accurate and precise forecasts by waiting till 3 days out on a tricky forecast like this. So, even though this forecast is out, remember the wild cards and how they can change virtually everything*

Here is what to expect:

-Oklahoma City, Oklahoma- Heavy snow likely to begin Monday Morning and quickly spread into Northeast Oklahoma by Monday Afternoon. Snow will be heavy at times with snow falling at over 1 inch per hour. Winds will not be horrible but an accumulation of at least 6 inches cannot be ruled out. (Just to the east will receive slightly higher amounts of snow) Snow is likely to last well into Tuesday Morning.

-Joplin, Missouri- So Far, Joplin looks to be in a bulls eye if current forecast come through. Heavy snow will spread in Monday night and accumulations between 7-9 inches are a potential with some locations seeing 10 inches of snow nearby. Wind will likely not be a major threat either as sustained winds between 20-30mph. Snow will likely end Tuesday evening.

-Springfield, Illinois- Springfield is also looking to get a decent accumulation with at least 6 inches of snow. Higher accumulations are a potential.

-Fort Wayne/Bluffton, Indiana Locations- Either way you move it, you are in for a solid snow event. A potential 6+ is in the forecast with most locations ending up with a 7-9 inch effect. Heavy snow at times will fall with winds between 20-30 sustained. Snow should begin Tuesday morning and last into Wednesday morning.

-Chicago, Illinois- Chicago is right on the verge of snow in this forecast. Due to model runs trending east again, we may come out with nothing. But, like other storms, this one should make a bit of a left turn and place some snow in the City and south. North suburbs could luck out. The track of this storm varies as the lake machine could turn on and add to some extra accumulations on Wednesday morning.

-Grand Rapids, Michigan- Another tricky forecast due to the track of the system but Grand Rapids should receive at least a half of foot of snow, if not more, out of this storm complex.

for more, go to:    http://stormcentral1st.com/?p=3670

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